Aggregator

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 091 WTNT32 KNHC 230848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 ...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 59.7W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1855 MI...2985 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 59.7 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster northeastward to east- northeastward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will continue to move away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 23 the center of Gabrielle was located near 33.2, -59.7 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 090 WTPZ24 KNHC 230848 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 954 WTNT22 KNHC 230847 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.7W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.7W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.2N 52.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.9N 34.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 39.7N 28.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 160SE 150SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.3N 19.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 42.7N 13.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 180SW 150NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 59.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A frontal zone will linger along the Southeast coast on Friday. A few strong storms are possible along this front given the moist airmass in the region. High pressure and a continental airmass will build into the eastern CONUS in the wake of this front. This should result in minimal severe weather potential across much of the CONUS this weekend and into next week. Operational and ensemble guidance shows a closed low developing across the Southeast this weekend and lingering through the middle of next week. Richer moisture may advect inland to the east and north of this low, and spread thunderstorms inland, but severe weather chances should still remain low given weak lapse rates and instability and relatively weak shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A frontal zone will linger along the Southeast coast on Friday. A few strong storms are possible along this front given the moist airmass in the region. High pressure and a continental airmass will build into the eastern CONUS in the wake of this front. This should result in minimal severe weather potential across much of the CONUS this weekend and into next week. Operational and ensemble guidance shows a closed low developing across the Southeast this weekend and lingering through the middle of next week. Richer moisture may advect inland to the east and north of this low, and spread thunderstorms inland, but severe weather chances should still remain low given weak lapse rates and instability and relatively weak shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A frontal zone will linger along the Southeast coast on Friday. A few strong storms are possible along this front given the moist airmass in the region. High pressure and a continental airmass will build into the eastern CONUS in the wake of this front. This should result in minimal severe weather potential across much of the CONUS this weekend and into next week. Operational and ensemble guidance shows a closed low developing across the Southeast this weekend and lingering through the middle of next week. Richer moisture may advect inland to the east and north of this low, and spread thunderstorms inland, but severe weather chances should still remain low given weak lapse rates and instability and relatively weak shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A frontal zone will linger along the Southeast coast on Friday. A few strong storms are possible along this front given the moist airmass in the region. High pressure and a continental airmass will build into the eastern CONUS in the wake of this front. This should result in minimal severe weather potential across much of the CONUS this weekend and into next week. Operational and ensemble guidance shows a closed low developing across the Southeast this weekend and lingering through the middle of next week. Richer moisture may advect inland to the east and north of this low, and spread thunderstorms inland, but severe weather chances should still remain low given weak lapse rates and instability and relatively weak shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A frontal zone will linger along the Southeast coast on Friday. A few strong storms are possible along this front given the moist airmass in the region. High pressure and a continental airmass will build into the eastern CONUS in the wake of this front. This should result in minimal severe weather potential across much of the CONUS this weekend and into next week. Operational and ensemble guidance shows a closed low developing across the Southeast this weekend and lingering through the middle of next week. Richer moisture may advect inland to the east and north of this low, and spread thunderstorms inland, but severe weather chances should still remain low given weak lapse rates and instability and relatively weak shear. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time. ...Portions of the Southeast... Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots) possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread, loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time. ...Portions of the Southeast... Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots) possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread, loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time. ...Portions of the Southeast... Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots) possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread, loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time. ...Portions of the Southeast... Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots) possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread, loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time. ...Portions of the Southeast... Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots) possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread, loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

MD 2122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Areas affected...southern KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 230608Z - 230745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe wind potential appears to be centered on the northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas border area through the pre-dawn hours. Significant severe wind gusts of 75-90 mph and a brief tornado are possible. An additional watch may be needed east of WW 617. DISCUSSION...Continued IR cloud-top cooling has been noted during the past couple hours with an organizing convective complex in northwest OK to southwest KS, centered on the US-281 corridor. With peak MLCAPE in vicinity of this line and a 45-kt south-southwesterly low-level jet to its south, per FDR/TLX VWP data, severe gusts may become sustained within an expanding west-to-east swath along the OK/KS border. Evening CAM guidance suggest the most intense wind potential will be over the next few hours through about 09Z, with some weakening later towards northeast OK/southeast KS as MLCAPE decreases/MLCIN increases. With a recently evolving seahorse-type shape to the reflectivity in the ongoing maturation phase, embedded mesovortices will be capable of producing a brief tornado and/or significant severe gusts of 75-90 mph. ..Grams/Gleason.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37639890 37909796 38009663 37899551 37509505 37209491 36949494 36779509 36459554 36319710 36329857 37639890 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE END TO 40 SSE RSL TO 25 SE SLN. WW 617 WAS EXTENDED IN TIME BY WFO ICT THROUGH 231000Z. ..GRAMS..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-019-035-049-073-077-079-095-113-155-159-173-191-230800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MCPHERSON RENO RICE SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC047-053-071-103-230800- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY NOBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM CO KS OK 230125Z - 230800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of east central Colorado western and central Kansas northern Oklahoma * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly increase in coverage and intensity by late evening, with one or two organizing clusters developing and posing increasing potential for severe wind gusts, in addition to large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Dodge City KS to 40 miles west southwest of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Kerr Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW AVK TO 25 NW GCK TO 50 SE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122. ..GRAMS..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-069-077-079-083-095-097- 101-113-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-171-173-185-191-195- 230740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAY HARPER HARVEY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MCPHERSON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-151-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop. Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse rates/instability. ...South Texas into Louisiana... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop. Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse rates/instability. ...South Texas into Louisiana... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more