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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Governor Mike Kehoe signed Executive Order 25-29, declaring a drought alert in Missouri until December 1, 2025. The executive order declared a Drought Alert for Missouri counties in moderate or worse drought status, including counties that may enter drought in the near future. KRCG-TV (New Bloomfield, Mo.), Sep 23, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more