Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 20:41:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 21:26:59 GMT

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation encouraged New Yorkers to take extra precautions when it comes to outdoor burning as warm and dry conditions have created an elevated risk of wildfires across the state. WIBX-AM (Utica, N.Y.), Sep 22, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 20:41:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 20:41:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232039 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 After steadily strengthening over the past day or so, Narda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. Overall, the cloud pattern of the hurricane has not changed much during the past several hours and it continues to maintain a central dense overcast feature with outer rainbands surrounding it. The latest satellite intensity estimates have generally held steady today and support maintaining the initial wind speed at 75 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago confirmed that Narda is a small hurricane with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend up to 80 n mi from the center. The hurricane has been losing latitude today, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 260/11 kt. This south of due west motion is caused by a strong subtropical ridge situated to Narda's north-northwest, and it should keep Narda on a general westward path for the next few days. After that time, the models show a weakness developing in the ridge associated with a cut off low moving southward over southern California, which should cause Narda to slow down and turn northwestward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one, based mostly on the more southward initial position and motion. Narda is likely to continue to strengthen through tonight. However, the latest models show a notable increase in easterly shear over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, and that could cause the intensity to level off. The shear is expected to lessen late Thursday and Friday, allowing an opportunity for Narda to strengthen again before it moves over cool waters and into a stable air mass this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but still lies near the high end of the guidance. Little change was made to the previous long-term intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.4N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 16.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 18.5N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 098 FOPZ14 KNHC 232039 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 89 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 110W 64 26 14(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) 15N 115W 34 1 6( 7) 76(83) 11(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) 23(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 17(17) 18(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 48(59) 3(62) 1(63) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 7(32) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 14(50) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...NARDA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Sep 23 the center of Narda was located near 15.4, -108.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 232038 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 123.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 ...NARDA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 108.4W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 108.4 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, but little change in strength is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality announced a drought watch advisory on Sept. 22. The lack of precipitation led to decreased streamflow and groundwater levels throughout central Virginia. There was little rain in the forecast for the next two weeks. The drought watch areas include • Northern Virginia: Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, and Prince William counties • Roanoke River: Bedford, Campbell, Charlotte, Franklin, Patrick, Halifax, Henry, Mecklenburg, Pittsylvania, and Roanoke counties • Upper James: Alleghany, Bath, Craig, Botetourt, Highland, and Rockbridge counties • Shenandoah: Augusta, Clarke, Frederick, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah, and Warren counties. News Leader (Staunton, Va.), Sep 23, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 23 20:30:21 UTC 2025.

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0619 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0619 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma ...western Arkansas...and extreme North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231831Z - 232030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Supercells posing a risk for a few tornadoes (one or two may be strong), large hail (up to 2 inch diameter) and damaging gusts to 70 mph are expected. Severe storms may also develop toward the Red River/far North Texas by early evening. One or more severe thunderstorm/tornado watches will likely be needed by 20-21z. DISCUSSION...At 18z, a surface low/cold front was located across central OK, and an outflow boundary extends west to east over extreme northeast OK/northwest AR. To the east and south of these features, pockets of clear to partly cloudy skies have allowed for strong surface heating and temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s amid 68-76 F dewpoints. This is supporting a corridor of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region. Inhibition is also rapidly eroding, and visible satellite indicates increasing cumulus. Midlevel convection also has been increasing/deepening closer to the surface front, suggesting convection will likely increase in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. Wind profile data from the KINX VWP shows curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight aloft. As the surface low continues to develop east/northeast through the afternoon, low-level SRH is expected to increase, and likely become maximized within the surface outflow vicinity where backed low-level winds are noted. Tornado potential will be maximized within a a corridor near/north of I-40 across northeast OK/northwest AR. A tornado watch is likely for this area. Further south, vertical shear is expected to be weaker/less favorable but damaging gusts and large hail will still be possible as convection develop southward along the front toward the Red River, and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed south of the tornado watch across southeast OK/southwest AR, and possibly far North Texas. ..Leitman/Smith.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35509264 34919328 34319408 33459634 33619714 33969741 34729688 35749623 36329583 36529532 36499435 36409278 36159241 35769248 35509264 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more