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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025 Read more

At least seven wells in Harpswell have gone dry after reliably providing water for many years. Wells on islands and narrow peninsulas have been especially problematic. Some people have had potable water delivered to charge the well or store the water in plastic tanks. Some wells were able to recharge after a length of time. More homeowners were interested in purchasing water storage systems to cope with the dry wells. Harpswell Anchor (Maine), Sep 19, 2025

Firefighters warned that brush fires in northwest Alabama were presenting a major danger as the blazes were difficult to get under control and fully extinguished. The fires rekindled multiple times. Northwest Alabamian (Haleyville, Ala.), Sep 24, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 14:53:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 15:27:27 GMT

The Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Wildlife proposed reducing the white-tailed deer bag limit in Athens, Meigs and Washington counties from three deer to two in response to an unprecedented outbreak of Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease in these counties. Confirmed EHD cases this year included Athens, Washington, Union, Morrow, Fairfield, Guernsey and Meigs counties, with Athens and Washington reporting the highest number of cases. There were more than 50 reports near the Pennsylvania border. The 2025 outbreaks were linked to ongoing drought in Ohio, which favors midge proliferation and drives deer to congregate near water sources, increasing transmission. Zanesville Times Recorder (Ohio), Sep 24, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 14:53:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 14:53:17 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 552 WTPZ44 KNHC 241451 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 The recent convective structure of Narda is characterized by a CDO containing cold cloud tops colder than -80C, with a curved band also noted to the west of the CDO. SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS are currently analyzing 20-25 kt of east-northeasterly shear. This shear has prevented any strengthening over the past 6 hours. In fact, the structure appears somewhat less impressive on a recent 24/1121 UTC F18 SSMIS microwave overpass. Given that the latest TAFB and SAB fixes are both T5.0/90 kt, the 90-kt intensity from the previous NHC advisory will be held for this advisory. Narda's motion hasn't changed, still estimated to be westward, or 265 degrees at 11 kt. A general westward motion will continue over the next 36 h, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. A mid-level low over central California is likely to sink southward toward northern Baja California by Friday night, which will act to erode the ridge. This should cause Narda to turn rather sharply toward the north by Saturday, along with a decrease in forward speed. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory for the first couple of days, but lies a bit to the left, or west, of the previous NHC advisory at days 3-5. The official forecast is closest to the TVCE and GFEX during that period, which lie in between the eastern HCCA solution and the western Google Deep Mind solution. The aforementioned strong northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to continue through tonight, then decrease to moderate magnitudes by Thursday while Narda remains over warm sea-surface temperatures and within a moist environment. The NHC forecast will continue to call for some weakening through tonight, followed by some restrengthening by Thursday night and into Friday. Narda is forecast to move into cooler waters and cross the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm by Saturday while reaching a somewhat drier environment around the same time. The NHC forecast shows rapid weakening during that time. It should be noted that there is a healthy amount of model spread beyond Day 3 as to how quickly Narda gains latitude during the 3-5 day period. These track differences could also affect the intensity forecast (how quickly Narda weakens during that time period). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.1N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.1N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 17.0N 122.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.7N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 21.8N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 241450 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 1500 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 43 56(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 1 78(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 115W 64 X 43(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 35(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 2(19) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 4(24) X(24) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 36(70) 4(74) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 4(36) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 241450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 1500 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 105SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 113.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N 122.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.7N 124.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.8N 123.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 241450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 ...NARDA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 111.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 111.7 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is expected through tonight, followed by some restrengthening Thursday night and Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or national meteorological office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Sep 24 the center of Narda was located near 15.1, -111.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.