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Pennsylvania American Water requested that customers in Butler County reduce their water use by about 5% because the county’s source waters, Thorn Run and Lake Oneida were affected by the lack of rain. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pa.), Sep 22, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 20:33:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 21:32:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 20:33:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 21:32:11 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 20:33:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 20:33:18 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242032 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 Narda has been feeling the impact of 20-25 kt northeasterly wind shear today. As a result, the convective structure has degraded somewhat over the past 6-12 hours. Although recent GPMI and ASCAT fixes indicate that the center is still well underneath the central dense overcast, the area of convection with cloud tops colder than -70C has shrunk significantly and the convection has become slightly more asymmetric. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased significantly over the past 6-12 hours, and have been mostly in the 65-80 kt range. Taking into account both the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged downward slightly to 85 kt for this advisory. Recent fixes indicate that Narda is moving slightly slower toward the west than earlier, with the current motion estimated at 265/9 kt. A general westward motion will continue over the next 24-36 h, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. A mid-level low over central California is expected to sink southward toward northern Baja California by Friday night, which will erode the ridge and induce a sharp northward turn by Saturday, along with a decrease in forward speed. The official forecast is slightly slower than the previous NHC advisory during the first 2 days, mainly due to the initial position being slightly farther east. After that time, the latest forecast is very near the previous official forecast. The official forecast is closest to the latest TVCE consensus through 60 h, and then lies in between the TVCE and HCCA from days 3-5. The aforementioned strong northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to continue through the next 12-24 h, then decrease to moderate magnitudes by Thursday afternoon while Narda remains over warm sea-surface temperatures and within a moist environment. The NHC forecast will therefore call for continued weakening through the next 24 h, followed by some restrengthening on Friday. On Saturday, Narda is forecast to move into cooler waters and cross the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm while reaching a somewhat drier environment. The NHC forecast shows rapid weakening over the weekend as Narda moves over progressively cooler waters. Overall, the latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous prediction. It should be noted that there is a healthy amount of track model spread beyond Day 3. These track differences will determine what water temperatures Narda encounters in 3-5 days, which will affect the intensity forecast (how quickly Narda weakens during that time period). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.1N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 16.0N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 17.3N 123.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 20.1N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 21.9N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 242031 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 89 10(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 12 60(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 115W 64 1 31(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 49(54) 12(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 23(70) 3(73) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 1(33) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 242031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 ...NARDA A LITTLE WEAKER BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 112.3W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 112.3 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by some restrengthening Thursday night and Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or national meteorological office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...NARDA A LITTLE WEAKER BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Sep 24 the center of Narda was located near 15.1, -112.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 679 WTPZ24 KNHC 242031 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.1N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 123.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

Gov. Kathy Hochul and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced a drought warning was issued for 12 counties in the Adirondack and Southern Tier regions and a drought watch was expanded to include the six counties in the Susquehanna region. All of New York State was in a drought watch or warning, except for New York City and Westchester County. Rome Sentinel (N.Y.), Sep 24, 2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Elevated area in northern WA (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus). See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level jet moves onshore over Washington on Thursday, west-southwesterly winds aloft will result in dry and gusty downslope winds over eastern portions of the North Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... West-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 MPH (locally gusting as high as 30-35 MPH) are forecast through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity should dip to 10-15%. With forecast fuels guidance showing ERCs approaching or at the 90th annual percentile, Critical highlights have been introduced -- especially given the presence of ongoing fires in the region. Maximum winds are expected to peak beginning around 2 PM PDT Thursday, and diminish by 8 PM PDT. ...Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin... An upper-low is expected to bring thunderstorm activity to the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin, and Arizona regions. Higher precipitable water content and marginal fuel receptiveness will diminish fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Elevated area in northern WA (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus). See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level jet moves onshore over Washington on Thursday, west-southwesterly winds aloft will result in dry and gusty downslope winds over eastern portions of the North Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... West-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 MPH (locally gusting as high as 30-35 MPH) are forecast through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity should dip to 10-15%. With forecast fuels guidance showing ERCs approaching or at the 90th annual percentile, Critical highlights have been introduced -- especially given the presence of ongoing fires in the region. Maximum winds are expected to peak beginning around 2 PM PDT Thursday, and diminish by 8 PM PDT. ...Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin... An upper-low is expected to bring thunderstorm activity to the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin, and Arizona regions. Higher precipitable water content and marginal fuel receptiveness will diminish fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Elevated area in northern WA (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus). See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level jet moves onshore over Washington on Thursday, west-southwesterly winds aloft will result in dry and gusty downslope winds over eastern portions of the North Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... West-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 MPH (locally gusting as high as 30-35 MPH) are forecast through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity should dip to 10-15%. With forecast fuels guidance showing ERCs approaching or at the 90th annual percentile, Critical highlights have been introduced -- especially given the presence of ongoing fires in the region. Maximum winds are expected to peak beginning around 2 PM PDT Thursday, and diminish by 8 PM PDT. ...Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin... An upper-low is expected to bring thunderstorm activity to the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin, and Arizona regions. Higher precipitable water content and marginal fuel receptiveness will diminish fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more