Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle of the week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 15 22:29:01 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 15 22:29:01 UTC 2019.

The Hunt Fire ignited in Rio Blanco County, Colorado on Thursday, September 5 as a result of lightning. It is located in a remote area, burning in heavy dead and down fuels and thick brush on valleys and ridges north of the Roan Plateau, between Hunter Creek and West Willow Creek.Crews are managing the fire for resource benefits, while protecting values at risk, which include several unoccupied, isolated historic cabins and dispersed oil and gas facilities. Firefighters will work to keep the fire north of the Rio Blanco County line, south of an existing petroleum pipeline, east of Hunter Creek, and west of West Willow Creek.An area closure is in effect on public lands north of the Rio Blanco County line, east of Hunter Creek Road, west of Willow Creek Road, and south of RBC Road 5.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the latest TAFB fix. While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting further modifications could be necessary later. The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 9(36) 3(39) 1(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 121.9W ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 121.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -121.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Primary change to current outlook has been to trim general thunderstorm area over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. In wake of shortwave trough, forcing for ascent will be limited to weak convergence and weak warm advection along and in advance of a southeast-moving cold front the remainder of the period. As a result, coverage of any additional thunderstorms is expected to be sparse. ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Primary change to current outlook has been to trim general thunderstorm area over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. In wake of shortwave trough, forcing for ascent will be limited to weak convergence and weak warm advection along and in advance of a southeast-moving cold front the remainder of the period. As a result, coverage of any additional thunderstorms is expected to be sparse. ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Primary change to current outlook has been to trim general thunderstorm area over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. In wake of shortwave trough, forcing for ascent will be limited to weak convergence and weak warm advection along and in advance of a southeast-moving cold front the remainder of the period. As a result, coverage of any additional thunderstorms is expected to be sparse. ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WESTERN UT...EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ... ...Southern California: Wind/RH... The primary change with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated fire weather area farther westward into the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and southward along/near the coastal ranges east of San Diego. While low-level flow will be onshore across these areas, RH values are forecast to remain reduced at higher elevations, with minimum values of 10-20% amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions may also continue overnight due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering gusty winds. ...Central/Eastern Utah: Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast soundings across portions of central/eastern Utah tomorrow afternoon suggest a potential for relatively high-based thunderstorms with fast storm motions. While precipitable water values are forecast to be somewhat marginal for isolated dry thunderstorms (e.g., 0.75"+), the fast storm motions and relatively dry fuels may be enough to compensate and allow for lightning ignitions -- especially on the periphery of storm cores. While a dry thunderstorm area was withheld with this outlook due to uncertainties regarding thunderstorm coverage, one may be needed in future outlooks. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin into portions of the Intermountain West from Monday into Monday night. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will sweep across portions of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. ...Great Basin and vicinity... A broad area of elevated to critical conditions is again expected over portions of the Great Basin and vicinity on Monday, with the area of greatest threat shifted eastward compared to D1/Sunday. Poor overnight RH recovery into Monday morning may allow critical conditions to develop early in the day ahead of the cold front. Critical conditions will become widespread across much of NV into portions of western UT and perhaps northwest AZ by the afternoon, as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and RH values drop below 15%. The northwestern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the timing of the cold front. Some areas northwest of the current critical delineation may see at least brief critical conditions before the front passes. An abrupt wind shift will accompany the front, which will impact the behavior of any ongoing fires, though RH values should rise fairly quickly in the wake of the front. The eastern portion of the critical area, where the front is not expected until Monday night, will see poor RH recovery during the evening and a more prolonged period of critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WESTERN UT...EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ... ...Southern California: Wind/RH... The primary change with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated fire weather area farther westward into the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and southward along/near the coastal ranges east of San Diego. While low-level flow will be onshore across these areas, RH values are forecast to remain reduced at higher elevations, with minimum values of 10-20% amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions may also continue overnight due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering gusty winds. ...Central/Eastern Utah: Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast soundings across portions of central/eastern Utah tomorrow afternoon suggest a potential for relatively high-based thunderstorms with fast storm motions. While precipitable water values are forecast to be somewhat marginal for isolated dry thunderstorms (e.g., 0.75"+), the fast storm motions and relatively dry fuels may be enough to compensate and allow for lightning ignitions -- especially on the periphery of storm cores. While a dry thunderstorm area was withheld with this outlook due to uncertainties regarding thunderstorm coverage, one may be needed in future outlooks. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin into portions of the Intermountain West from Monday into Monday night. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will sweep across portions of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. ...Great Basin and vicinity... A broad area of elevated to critical conditions is again expected over portions of the Great Basin and vicinity on Monday, with the area of greatest threat shifted eastward compared to D1/Sunday. Poor overnight RH recovery into Monday morning may allow critical conditions to develop early in the day ahead of the cold front. Critical conditions will become widespread across much of NV into portions of western UT and perhaps northwest AZ by the afternoon, as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and RH values drop below 15%. The northwestern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the timing of the cold front. Some areas northwest of the current critical delineation may see at least brief critical conditions before the front passes. An abrupt wind shift will accompany the front, which will impact the behavior of any ongoing fires, though RH values should rise fairly quickly in the wake of the front. The eastern portion of the critical area, where the front is not expected until Monday night, will see poor RH recovery during the evening and a more prolonged period of critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WESTERN UT...EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ... ...Southern California: Wind/RH... The primary change with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated fire weather area farther westward into the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and southward along/near the coastal ranges east of San Diego. While low-level flow will be onshore across these areas, RH values are forecast to remain reduced at higher elevations, with minimum values of 10-20% amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions may also continue overnight due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering gusty winds. ...Central/Eastern Utah: Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast soundings across portions of central/eastern Utah tomorrow afternoon suggest a potential for relatively high-based thunderstorms with fast storm motions. While precipitable water values are forecast to be somewhat marginal for isolated dry thunderstorms (e.g., 0.75"+), the fast storm motions and relatively dry fuels may be enough to compensate and allow for lightning ignitions -- especially on the periphery of storm cores. While a dry thunderstorm area was withheld with this outlook due to uncertainties regarding thunderstorm coverage, one may be needed in future outlooks. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin into portions of the Intermountain West from Monday into Monday night. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will sweep across portions of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. ...Great Basin and vicinity... A broad area of elevated to critical conditions is again expected over portions of the Great Basin and vicinity on Monday, with the area of greatest threat shifted eastward compared to D1/Sunday. Poor overnight RH recovery into Monday morning may allow critical conditions to develop early in the day ahead of the cold front. Critical conditions will become widespread across much of NV into portions of western UT and perhaps northwest AZ by the afternoon, as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and RH values drop below 15%. The northwestern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the timing of the cold front. Some areas northwest of the current critical delineation may see at least brief critical conditions before the front passes. An abrupt wind shift will accompany the front, which will impact the behavior of any ongoing fires, though RH values should rise fairly quickly in the wake of the front. The eastern portion of the critical area, where the front is not expected until Monday night, will see poor RH recovery during the evening and a more prolonged period of critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. ...Great Basin region... An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within 30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of higher momentum air to the surface. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. ...Great Basin region... An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within 30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of higher momentum air to the surface. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. ...Great Basin region... An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within 30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of higher momentum air to the surface. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 Read more

The Carson National Forest will be managing the lightning-caused Amole Fire on the Camino Real Ranger District to spread within a defined area in order to fulfill its natural role of reducing dense forest fuels and improving overall ecosystem health. Removing these fuels will lessen the potential for future severe wildfires along Highway 518 and further protect high voltage transmission and fiber optic lines that service the Taos and Peñasco area. Fire managers are employing these tactics to allow the fire to play its natural role in the ecosystem, promoting a more fire resilient