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MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Areas affected...extreme southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191411Z - 191615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Threat for isolated tornadoes should persist through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon from extreme southeast TX into southwest LA. The spatial extent of threat is expected to remain small, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a warm front extends from near the southwest LA coast northwestward to a surface low in southeast TX. These features are associated with tropical depression Imelda that is located over east TX and moving very slowly north at around 5 mph. Storms continue developing along a convergence band over southeast TX with more discrete mini supercells developing ahead of the line moving northward onto the southwest LA coast. The greatest potential for a few brief tornadoes will be as these mini supercells move north and interact with the warm front across southwest LA where 0-1 km storm relative helicity ranges from 150-250 m2/s2. The spatial extent of the threat area is expected to remain limited, but some of these storms might eventually affect the city of Lake Charles. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH... LAT...LON 30299331 29839283 29569301 29829407 30419388 30299331 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible near the upper Texas coast. ...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will move eastward over NV/ID and UT by tonight, with subtle/diffuse speed maxima preceding the trough from the southern Rockies to the central High Plains. An associated broad surface low will form in WY and move toward the northern High Plains by early Friday, with a lee trough extending southeastward into eastern CO. Surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s east of the lee trough will contribute to MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent will be weak at best on the larger scale, with storm initiation relying on surface heating to remove convective inhibition. Still, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and persist into this evening along and east of the lee trough, and along the northwest edge of a midlevel moisture plume across the southern High Plains. Steep lapse rates will promote some potential for strong outflow winds with downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail. Deep-layer vertical shear will be weak across western KS where multicell clusters will be the main storm mode, and slightly stronger across the TX Panhandle where some transient supercell structures will be possible. ...Southeast TX today... Extreme rainfall has occurred overnight between Houston and Beaumont with training convection which has been maintained by 35 kt south-southwesterly inflow of 100 mb mean mixing ratios near 19 g/kg (77-80 F dewpoints) into a stationary, rain-reinforced boundary. Back-building to the west will become more probable during the day with the stronger low-level inflow focused into the west flank of the ongoing convection, and as surface heating occurs to the west. There will still be sufficient low-level shear/hodograph curvature for a few rotating storms and a brief/weak tornado or two in this band the first half of the day, with a gradual decrease in low-level flow/shear is expected by later this afternoon. ...Northern High Plains through tonight... The richer low-level moisture is confined to NE/KS this morning, and moisture is likely to remain limited across eastern WY through most of the afternoon. Moisture will increase farther west and north tonight, but this will also be accompanied by a capped boundary layer. Since the limited moisture will likewise limit buoyancy during the diurnal heating cycle, severe storms appear unlikely this afternoon. The cap and only weak forcing for ascent until Friday morning also suggests that any severe threat overnight will remain too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible near the upper Texas coast. ...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will move eastward over NV/ID and UT by tonight, with subtle/diffuse speed maxima preceding the trough from the southern Rockies to the central High Plains. An associated broad surface low will form in WY and move toward the northern High Plains by early Friday, with a lee trough extending southeastward into eastern CO. Surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s east of the lee trough will contribute to MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent will be weak at best on the larger scale, with storm initiation relying on surface heating to remove convective inhibition. Still, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and persist into this evening along and east of the lee trough, and along the northwest edge of a midlevel moisture plume across the southern High Plains. Steep lapse rates will promote some potential for strong outflow winds with downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail. Deep-layer vertical shear will be weak across western KS where multicell clusters will be the main storm mode, and slightly stronger across the TX Panhandle where some transient supercell structures will be possible. ...Southeast TX today... Extreme rainfall has occurred overnight between Houston and Beaumont with training convection which has been maintained by 35 kt south-southwesterly inflow of 100 mb mean mixing ratios near 19 g/kg (77-80 F dewpoints) into a stationary, rain-reinforced boundary. Back-building to the west will become more probable during the day with the stronger low-level inflow focused into the west flank of the ongoing convection, and as surface heating occurs to the west. There will still be sufficient low-level shear/hodograph curvature for a few rotating storms and a brief/weak tornado or two in this band the first half of the day, with a gradual decrease in low-level flow/shear is expected by later this afternoon. ...Northern High Plains through tonight... The richer low-level moisture is confined to NE/KS this morning, and moisture is likely to remain limited across eastern WY through most of the afternoon. Moisture will increase farther west and north tonight, but this will also be accompanied by a capped boundary layer. Since the limited moisture will likewise limit buoyancy during the diurnal heating cycle, severe storms appear unlikely this afternoon. The cap and only weak forcing for ascent until Friday morning also suggests that any severe threat overnight will remain too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible near the upper Texas coast. ...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will move eastward over NV/ID and UT by tonight, with subtle/diffuse speed maxima preceding the trough from the southern Rockies to the central High Plains. An associated broad surface low will form in WY and move toward the northern High Plains by early Friday, with a lee trough extending southeastward into eastern CO. Surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s east of the lee trough will contribute to MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent will be weak at best on the larger scale, with storm initiation relying on surface heating to remove convective inhibition. Still, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and persist into this evening along and east of the lee trough, and along the northwest edge of a midlevel moisture plume across the southern High Plains. Steep lapse rates will promote some potential for strong outflow winds with downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail. Deep-layer vertical shear will be weak across western KS where multicell clusters will be the main storm mode, and slightly stronger across the TX Panhandle where some transient supercell structures will be possible. ...Southeast TX today... Extreme rainfall has occurred overnight between Houston and Beaumont with training convection which has been maintained by 35 kt south-southwesterly inflow of 100 mb mean mixing ratios near 19 g/kg (77-80 F dewpoints) into a stationary, rain-reinforced boundary. Back-building to the west will become more probable during the day with the stronger low-level inflow focused into the west flank of the ongoing convection, and as surface heating occurs to the west. There will still be sufficient low-level shear/hodograph curvature for a few rotating storms and a brief/weak tornado or two in this band the first half of the day, with a gradual decrease in low-level flow/shear is expected by later this afternoon. ...Northern High Plains through tonight... The richer low-level moisture is confined to NE/KS this morning, and moisture is likely to remain limited across eastern WY through most of the afternoon. Moisture will increase farther west and north tonight, but this will also be accompanied by a capped boundary layer. Since the limited moisture will likewise limit buoyancy during the diurnal heating cycle, severe storms appear unlikely this afternoon. The cap and only weak forcing for ascent until Friday morning also suggests that any severe threat overnight will remain too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible near the upper Texas coast. ...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will move eastward over NV/ID and UT by tonight, with subtle/diffuse speed maxima preceding the trough from the southern Rockies to the central High Plains. An associated broad surface low will form in WY and move toward the northern High Plains by early Friday, with a lee trough extending southeastward into eastern CO. Surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s east of the lee trough will contribute to MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent will be weak at best on the larger scale, with storm initiation relying on surface heating to remove convective inhibition. Still, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and persist into this evening along and east of the lee trough, and along the northwest edge of a midlevel moisture plume across the southern High Plains. Steep lapse rates will promote some potential for strong outflow winds with downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail. Deep-layer vertical shear will be weak across western KS where multicell clusters will be the main storm mode, and slightly stronger across the TX Panhandle where some transient supercell structures will be possible. ...Southeast TX today... Extreme rainfall has occurred overnight between Houston and Beaumont with training convection which has been maintained by 35 kt south-southwesterly inflow of 100 mb mean mixing ratios near 19 g/kg (77-80 F dewpoints) into a stationary, rain-reinforced boundary. Back-building to the west will become more probable during the day with the stronger low-level inflow focused into the west flank of the ongoing convection, and as surface heating occurs to the west. There will still be sufficient low-level shear/hodograph curvature for a few rotating storms and a brief/weak tornado or two in this band the first half of the day, with a gradual decrease in low-level flow/shear is expected by later this afternoon. ...Northern High Plains through tonight... The richer low-level moisture is confined to NE/KS this morning, and moisture is likely to remain limited across eastern WY through most of the afternoon. Moisture will increase farther west and north tonight, but this will also be accompanied by a capped boundary layer. Since the limited moisture will likewise limit buoyancy during the diurnal heating cycle, severe storms appear unlikely this afternoon. The cap and only weak forcing for ascent until Friday morning also suggests that any severe threat overnight will remain too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/19/2019 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:58:20 GMT

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191155 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area this morning, and then move back over water this afternoon. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west- central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area through this afternoon. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning as early Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.2, -105.4 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific continues to produce a few
disorganized thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while the system moves little.
Further development is unlikely after that time as the system
interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, though models differ on speed and amplification. Regardless, thunderstorms are likely along the cold front, roughly from Lower Michigan into Missouri. Unidirectional southwest winds along the front suggest a degree of wind threat, though predictability is currently low. This trough will continue eastward into Monday/D5, but instability will be low over the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Meanwhile to the west, good model agreement exists with an upper low that is forecast to drop south across Nevada and into Arizona on Monday/D5. Increasing winds aloft as well as upslope along the rim with gulf moisture suggest a few severe storms are possible. Veering winds with height, good speed shear aloft and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg also indicate supercell potential or bowing segments. If model trends persist, severe probabilities may be added in future outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, though models differ on speed and amplification. Regardless, thunderstorms are likely along the cold front, roughly from Lower Michigan into Missouri. Unidirectional southwest winds along the front suggest a degree of wind threat, though predictability is currently low. This trough will continue eastward into Monday/D5, but instability will be low over the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Meanwhile to the west, good model agreement exists with an upper low that is forecast to drop south across Nevada and into Arizona on Monday/D5. Increasing winds aloft as well as upslope along the rim with gulf moisture suggest a few severe storms are possible. Veering winds with height, good speed shear aloft and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg also indicate supercell potential or bowing segments. If model trends persist, severe probabilities may be added in future outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, though models differ on speed and amplification. Regardless, thunderstorms are likely along the cold front, roughly from Lower Michigan into Missouri. Unidirectional southwest winds along the front suggest a degree of wind threat, though predictability is currently low. This trough will continue eastward into Monday/D5, but instability will be low over the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Meanwhile to the west, good model agreement exists with an upper low that is forecast to drop south across Nevada and into Arizona on Monday/D5. Increasing winds aloft as well as upslope along the rim with gulf moisture suggest a few severe storms are possible. Veering winds with height, good speed shear aloft and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg also indicate supercell potential or bowing segments. If model trends persist, severe probabilities may be added in future outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, though models differ on speed and amplification. Regardless, thunderstorms are likely along the cold front, roughly from Lower Michigan into Missouri. Unidirectional southwest winds along the front suggest a degree of wind threat, though predictability is currently low. This trough will continue eastward into Monday/D5, but instability will be low over the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Meanwhile to the west, good model agreement exists with an upper low that is forecast to drop south across Nevada and into Arizona on Monday/D5. Increasing winds aloft as well as upslope along the rim with gulf moisture suggest a few severe storms are possible. Veering winds with height, good speed shear aloft and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg also indicate supercell potential or bowing segments. If model trends persist, severe probabilities may be added in future outlooks. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:58:20 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:52:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:51:51 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Deep convection has persisted around the center of Mario over the past several hours. However, the improved appearance of the cyclone has not yet resulted in an increase in surface wind speeds, as confirmed by an ASCAT overpass a few hours ago. The initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt and this is in agreement with the latest objective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. With the recent increase in organized convection, Mario is likely starting a phase of intensification while over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. However, this strengthening should be limited due to northeasterly shear being aided by outflow from Hurricane Lorena near the Mexico coast. After 36 hours, Mario is forecast to begin moving into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment while still undergoing shear from nearby Lorena. This should cause a gradual weakening trend through 96 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters in the same hostile environment, which should cause it to degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is near the previous one and is on the higher end of the consensus aids. Mario has turned to the north and the initial motion is now 355/6 kt. The combination of weak steering currents, and a possible subtle interaction between Mario's and Lorena's circulation should induce a slow north to north-northeast motion over the next couple of days. After that time, mid-level ridging is expected to develop over northern Mexico which should cause Mario to turn northwestward with an increase in forward speed. The official forecast is near the ECMWF and lies just a little to the right of the previous forecast through the first few days, and very near it thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:51:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:45:08 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 10(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 36(49) 19(68) 10(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 1(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 6(24) X(24) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.9W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.9 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strenthening is anticipated and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Some slow weakening is expected after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 15.9, -111.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.