Aggregator

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 970 WTPZ43 KNHC 201447 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However, most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken (again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen. Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE. Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous advisory after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:46:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:31:49 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 201445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 1(26) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO ON THE UPSWING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 130.2W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 130.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible today, but only small changes in intensity are expected during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO ON THE UPSWING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.7, -130.2 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 201440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains into the Dakotas through tonight... A closed midlevel low over southern ID/northeastern NV will evolve into an open wave while ejecting northeastward to the western Dakotas by Saturday morning. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur today near the CO/NE/WY border intersection, with a dryline extending southward across eastern CO. Farther north, a front will stall today from northeastern WY into western ND in advance of the midlevel trough over the Great Basin. The front will move eastward into the Dakotas tonight as a surface cyclone develops northeastward along the boundary, in the zone of ascent preceding the ejecting midlevel trough. A few elevated storms will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon in association with a lead shortwave trough and midlevel moisture plume now moving north-northeastward over the northern High Plains. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and weakening of convective inhibition for surface parcels, and some of the morning convection could evolve into surface-based clusters along the front this afternoon. Embedded supercells may occur where vertical shear is maximized along the front, but the primary storm mode should be multicells growing into line segments. The more discrete/supercell storms could pose a threat for a tornado or two along the boundary, but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns as convection spreads east across ND tonight. Farther south into eastern WY and the western NE Panhandle, more discrete storm development is expected this afternoon near the lee cyclone and dryline, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough. Backing/strengthening low-level flow this evening will result in sufficient hodograph length and curvature for supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and large hail. Some upscale growth into clusters/line segments is probable tonight across SD as the cold front begins to surge eastward. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Convection is ongoing across the TX Panhandle. These storms should weaken later this morning, but remnant outflow could linger into the afternoon across the southern Panhandle and South Plains. Additional storm development is expected this afternoon from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and South Plains, and storms will spread east-northeastward through late evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep in proximity to the midlevel moisture plume, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, especially if storms can interact with a remnant outflow boundary from morning convection. Isolated damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two will all be possible. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains into the Dakotas through tonight... A closed midlevel low over southern ID/northeastern NV will evolve into an open wave while ejecting northeastward to the western Dakotas by Saturday morning. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur today near the CO/NE/WY border intersection, with a dryline extending southward across eastern CO. Farther north, a front will stall today from northeastern WY into western ND in advance of the midlevel trough over the Great Basin. The front will move eastward into the Dakotas tonight as a surface cyclone develops northeastward along the boundary, in the zone of ascent preceding the ejecting midlevel trough. A few elevated storms will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon in association with a lead shortwave trough and midlevel moisture plume now moving north-northeastward over the northern High Plains. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and weakening of convective inhibition for surface parcels, and some of the morning convection could evolve into surface-based clusters along the front this afternoon. Embedded supercells may occur where vertical shear is maximized along the front, but the primary storm mode should be multicells growing into line segments. The more discrete/supercell storms could pose a threat for a tornado or two along the boundary, but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns as convection spreads east across ND tonight. Farther south into eastern WY and the western NE Panhandle, more discrete storm development is expected this afternoon near the lee cyclone and dryline, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough. Backing/strengthening low-level flow this evening will result in sufficient hodograph length and curvature for supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and large hail. Some upscale growth into clusters/line segments is probable tonight across SD as the cold front begins to surge eastward. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Convection is ongoing across the TX Panhandle. These storms should weaken later this morning, but remnant outflow could linger into the afternoon across the southern Panhandle and South Plains. Additional storm development is expected this afternoon from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and South Plains, and storms will spread east-northeastward through late evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep in proximity to the midlevel moisture plume, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, especially if storms can interact with a remnant outflow boundary from morning convection. Isolated damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two will all be possible. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains into the Dakotas through tonight... A closed midlevel low over southern ID/northeastern NV will evolve into an open wave while ejecting northeastward to the western Dakotas by Saturday morning. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur today near the CO/NE/WY border intersection, with a dryline extending southward across eastern CO. Farther north, a front will stall today from northeastern WY into western ND in advance of the midlevel trough over the Great Basin. The front will move eastward into the Dakotas tonight as a surface cyclone develops northeastward along the boundary, in the zone of ascent preceding the ejecting midlevel trough. A few elevated storms will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon in association with a lead shortwave trough and midlevel moisture plume now moving north-northeastward over the northern High Plains. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and weakening of convective inhibition for surface parcels, and some of the morning convection could evolve into surface-based clusters along the front this afternoon. Embedded supercells may occur where vertical shear is maximized along the front, but the primary storm mode should be multicells growing into line segments. The more discrete/supercell storms could pose a threat for a tornado or two along the boundary, but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns as convection spreads east across ND tonight. Farther south into eastern WY and the western NE Panhandle, more discrete storm development is expected this afternoon near the lee cyclone and dryline, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough. Backing/strengthening low-level flow this evening will result in sufficient hodograph length and curvature for supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and large hail. Some upscale growth into clusters/line segments is probable tonight across SD as the cold front begins to surge eastward. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Convection is ongoing across the TX Panhandle. These storms should weaken later this morning, but remnant outflow could linger into the afternoon across the southern Panhandle and South Plains. Additional storm development is expected this afternoon from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and South Plains, and storms will spread east-northeastward through late evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep in proximity to the midlevel moisture plume, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, especially if storms can interact with a remnant outflow boundary from morning convection. Isolated damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two will all be possible. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains into the Dakotas through tonight... A closed midlevel low over southern ID/northeastern NV will evolve into an open wave while ejecting northeastward to the western Dakotas by Saturday morning. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur today near the CO/NE/WY border intersection, with a dryline extending southward across eastern CO. Farther north, a front will stall today from northeastern WY into western ND in advance of the midlevel trough over the Great Basin. The front will move eastward into the Dakotas tonight as a surface cyclone develops northeastward along the boundary, in the zone of ascent preceding the ejecting midlevel trough. A few elevated storms will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon in association with a lead shortwave trough and midlevel moisture plume now moving north-northeastward over the northern High Plains. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and weakening of convective inhibition for surface parcels, and some of the morning convection could evolve into surface-based clusters along the front this afternoon. Embedded supercells may occur where vertical shear is maximized along the front, but the primary storm mode should be multicells growing into line segments. The more discrete/supercell storms could pose a threat for a tornado or two along the boundary, but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns as convection spreads east across ND tonight. Farther south into eastern WY and the western NE Panhandle, more discrete storm development is expected this afternoon near the lee cyclone and dryline, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough. Backing/strengthening low-level flow this evening will result in sufficient hodograph length and curvature for supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and large hail. Some upscale growth into clusters/line segments is probable tonight across SD as the cold front begins to surge eastward. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Convection is ongoing across the TX Panhandle. These storms should weaken later this morning, but remnant outflow could linger into the afternoon across the southern Panhandle and South Plains. Additional storm development is expected this afternoon from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and South Plains, and storms will spread east-northeastward through late evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep in proximity to the midlevel moisture plume, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, especially if storms can interact with a remnant outflow boundary from morning convection. Isolated damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two will all be possible. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/20/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently
upgraded Hurricane Lorena, nearing the southern Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 11:42:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 09:44:56 GMT

Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201142 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 736 WTPZ65 KNHC 200929 TCUEP5 Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... Satellite intensity estimates indicate that Lorena has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). SUMMARY OF 330 AM MDT...0930 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts

...HURRICANE LORENA CRAWLING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.7, -109.0 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:53:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 09:44:56 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 933 WTPZ45 KNHC 200844 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A series of METOP-B microwave composite images reveal an improved inner core this morning with a distinct banding eye feature and developing outer bands in the east portion of the cyclone. Lorena is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt. Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some further intensification is forecast before the cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures beyond the 36-hour period. Lorena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48 hours or so have increased significantly. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to upper-level tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough, northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States. The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted considerably toward the west away from the Baja California peninsula. Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus models. At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to show binary interaction with Mario. Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer data. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO $$ Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D4, an upper trough/low will drop south across the Great Basin and into AZ, with low pressure over the lower CO River Valley. Due to strong lift and a lack of a cap, storms are expected to become widespread after about 18Z from southwest into central AZ. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak, but increasing mid and high level flow may support some risk of cells capable of hail or small bows producing wind. Despite winds in the low-levels being weak, they will veer with height and a brief supercell cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. To the east, an upper trough will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the northeastern states, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front. Instability will be weak, and therefore severe weather is not currently anticipated with this system. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop out of AZ and NM into the southern Plains during the D5-D7 period ahead of the cut-off low, but severe chances appear low. Toward the end of the D8 period, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast across the West. Low-level moisture will likely be in place over the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley, and may provide a setup for severe storms beyond the current forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D4, an upper trough/low will drop south across the Great Basin and into AZ, with low pressure over the lower CO River Valley. Due to strong lift and a lack of a cap, storms are expected to become widespread after about 18Z from southwest into central AZ. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak, but increasing mid and high level flow may support some risk of cells capable of hail or small bows producing wind. Despite winds in the low-levels being weak, they will veer with height and a brief supercell cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. To the east, an upper trough will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the northeastern states, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front. Instability will be weak, and therefore severe weather is not currently anticipated with this system. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop out of AZ and NM into the southern Plains during the D5-D7 period ahead of the cut-off low, but severe chances appear low. Toward the end of the D8 period, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast across the West. Low-level moisture will likely be in place over the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley, and may provide a setup for severe storms beyond the current forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D4, an upper trough/low will drop south across the Great Basin and into AZ, with low pressure over the lower CO River Valley. Due to strong lift and a lack of a cap, storms are expected to become widespread after about 18Z from southwest into central AZ. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak, but increasing mid and high level flow may support some risk of cells capable of hail or small bows producing wind. Despite winds in the low-levels being weak, they will veer with height and a brief supercell cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. To the east, an upper trough will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the northeastern states, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front. Instability will be weak, and therefore severe weather is not currently anticipated with this system. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop out of AZ and NM into the southern Plains during the D5-D7 period ahead of the cut-off low, but severe chances appear low. Toward the end of the D8 period, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast across the West. Low-level moisture will likely be in place over the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley, and may provide a setup for severe storms beyond the current forecast period. Read more