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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND A LARGE PORTION OF UTAH... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will spread across the Great Basin today ahead of a mid-level closed low. Some of these strong winds are expected to transport toward the surface through deep vertical mixing. Surface winds could be quite strong (30 to 35 mph) in northwest Arizona and southwest Utah with some gusts approaching 50 mph. In addition, this pre-frontal airmass will feature dry surface conditions and RH values around 10 to 20 percent. 20 to 30 mph surface winds are expected farther northeast into most of Wyoming where relative humidity will also be in the 15 to 20 percent range. Isolated critical conditions will be possible in this region, but no critical area was added here due to borderline relative humidity and relatively sparse fuels. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND A LARGE PORTION OF UTAH... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will spread across the Great Basin today ahead of a mid-level closed low. Some of these strong winds are expected to transport toward the surface through deep vertical mixing. Surface winds could be quite strong (30 to 35 mph) in northwest Arizona and southwest Utah with some gusts approaching 50 mph. In addition, this pre-frontal airmass will feature dry surface conditions and RH values around 10 to 20 percent. 20 to 30 mph surface winds are expected farther northeast into most of Wyoming where relative humidity will also be in the 15 to 20 percent range. Isolated critical conditions will be possible in this region, but no critical area was added here due to borderline relative humidity and relatively sparse fuels. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND A LARGE PORTION OF UTAH... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will spread across the Great Basin today ahead of a mid-level closed low. Some of these strong winds are expected to transport toward the surface through deep vertical mixing. Surface winds could be quite strong (30 to 35 mph) in northwest Arizona and southwest Utah with some gusts approaching 50 mph. In addition, this pre-frontal airmass will feature dry surface conditions and RH values around 10 to 20 percent. 20 to 30 mph surface winds are expected farther northeast into most of Wyoming where relative humidity will also be in the 15 to 20 percent range. Isolated critical conditions will be possible in this region, but no critical area was added here due to borderline relative humidity and relatively sparse fuels. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms capable of hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the northern and central Plains later this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Upper ridging will be shunted into the MS Valley later today as a strong upper trough shifts across the northern Rockies/Great Basin. While the primary corridor of height falls will spread across the Great Basin during the day, modest 500mb flow should extend across WY into MT with substantially weaker flow expected south of I-70 across CO/KS. As a result, large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible/weak across the High Plains through the period. Early this morning, convection is beginning to expand in areal coverage from northeast NE into northern IA. An upward evolving cluster/MCS should be noted through sunrise and this would reinforce a boundary that will drape itself across NE - arcing northwest into southeast MT. The early-day MCS is not expected to be particularly strong and its primary influence should be to reinforce the front across the central Plains. Latest model guidance aggressively warms the boundary layer across the central High Plains and convective temperatures will likely be breached between 20-22z along the CO/KS border into southwest NE. Latest thinking is isolated thunderstorms should evolve across the High Plains driven primarily by diurnal heating along western fringe of moist plume. CAMs support this scenario and robust convection could produce some hail and wind. Farther north across eastern WY into southeast MT, moisture will be notably lower but forecast wind profiles substantially stronger, more than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts. In the absence of large-scale support, diurnal heating and orographic influences will prove instrumental in convective development. Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s - effectively removing minimal inhibition expected across this region. This activity could linger into the late evening as LLJ strengthens across western SD after sunset. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms capable of hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the northern and central Plains later this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Upper ridging will be shunted into the MS Valley later today as a strong upper trough shifts across the northern Rockies/Great Basin. While the primary corridor of height falls will spread across the Great Basin during the day, modest 500mb flow should extend across WY into MT with substantially weaker flow expected south of I-70 across CO/KS. As a result, large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible/weak across the High Plains through the period. Early this morning, convection is beginning to expand in areal coverage from northeast NE into northern IA. An upward evolving cluster/MCS should be noted through sunrise and this would reinforce a boundary that will drape itself across NE - arcing northwest into southeast MT. The early-day MCS is not expected to be particularly strong and its primary influence should be to reinforce the front across the central Plains. Latest model guidance aggressively warms the boundary layer across the central High Plains and convective temperatures will likely be breached between 20-22z along the CO/KS border into southwest NE. Latest thinking is isolated thunderstorms should evolve across the High Plains driven primarily by diurnal heating along western fringe of moist plume. CAMs support this scenario and robust convection could produce some hail and wind. Farther north across eastern WY into southeast MT, moisture will be notably lower but forecast wind profiles substantially stronger, more than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts. In the absence of large-scale support, diurnal heating and orographic influences will prove instrumental in convective development. Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s - effectively removing minimal inhibition expected across this region. This activity could linger into the late evening as LLJ strengthens across western SD after sunset. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms capable of hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the northern and central Plains later this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Upper ridging will be shunted into the MS Valley later today as a strong upper trough shifts across the northern Rockies/Great Basin. While the primary corridor of height falls will spread across the Great Basin during the day, modest 500mb flow should extend across WY into MT with substantially weaker flow expected south of I-70 across CO/KS. As a result, large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible/weak across the High Plains through the period. Early this morning, convection is beginning to expand in areal coverage from northeast NE into northern IA. An upward evolving cluster/MCS should be noted through sunrise and this would reinforce a boundary that will drape itself across NE - arcing northwest into southeast MT. The early-day MCS is not expected to be particularly strong and its primary influence should be to reinforce the front across the central Plains. Latest model guidance aggressively warms the boundary layer across the central High Plains and convective temperatures will likely be breached between 20-22z along the CO/KS border into southwest NE. Latest thinking is isolated thunderstorms should evolve across the High Plains driven primarily by diurnal heating along western fringe of moist plume. CAMs support this scenario and robust convection could produce some hail and wind. Farther north across eastern WY into southeast MT, moisture will be notably lower but forecast wind profiles substantially stronger, more than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts. In the absence of large-scale support, diurnal heating and orographic influences will prove instrumental in convective development. Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s - effectively removing minimal inhibition expected across this region. This activity could linger into the late evening as LLJ strengthens across western SD after sunset. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 09/19/2019 Read more

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190540 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the center of Lorena moved nearby. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.3, -104.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:58:26 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific is producing limited and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the system
moves little. Thereafter, the system is expected to be absorbed by
the circulation of Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Many South Carolina farmers were concerned that drought would ruin their crops. In Aiken and Orangeburg counties, corn, cotton and peanut production looked to be halved. In Laurens County, pastures were gone, and producers had been feeding hay for more than a month. Valdosta Daily Times (Ga.), Sept. 18, 2019

Soybeans in Jackson County were beyond salvaging, even if rain fell. In Terrell County, peanut farmers were digging peanuts early while there was still enough soil moisture to harvest. Valdosta Daily Times (Ga.), Sept. 18, 2019

Tennessee’s burn permit season will begin early on Sept. 23, due to dry conditions. The Tennessee Division of Forestry normally requires burn permits from Oct. 15 through May 15. WATE-TV ABC 6 Knoxville (Tenn.), Sept. 19, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT

MD 1983 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1983 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western and northern Iowa...southeastern Minnesota...and parts of western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190328Z - 190530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop across the MCD area, with potential that a few instances of hail -- and possibly wind gusts -- approach severe levels. A WW is not anticipated, due to the expected local/limited risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows thunderstorms developing over the eastern Nebraska vicinity, near and to the cool side of a surface cold front, roughly in line with CAM forecasts across this region. The storms are developing atop a stabilizing -- and for the most part post-frontal -- boundary layer, which should serve to limit severe potential. With that said, steep lapse rates aloft above the decoupling boundary layer -- as sampled by area 00Z RAOBs -- are contributing to substantial elevated CAPE. This will permit a few stronger/possibly rotating updrafts to evolve from time to time, aided by marginally sufficient shear through the cloud-bearing layer. With storms which can develop nearer the front, a locally stronger wind gust or two may occur. However, hail approaching or exceeding severe levels will remain the greater risk with the most robust storms. At this time, risk is expected to remain sufficiently limited such that WW issuance is likely to remain unnecessary. However, we will continue to monitor storm evolution, for signs of robust development in close proximity to the advancing front, which would -- given greater risk for wind in such a scenario -- warrant greater concern with respect to WW necessity. ..Goss/Edwards.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41259780 41939762 44559420 45489252 44889140 43299183 40939554 40669715 41259780 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:54:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:51:50 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190253 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the previous advisory. However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around 2300 UTC. There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high end. Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt in the middle of the range. Mario's future still depends on Lorena. At the moment, the storm is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The track models continue to show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena. On the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a backwards-S track as it moves generally northward. On the other hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not much wiggle in its track. Visible satellite images showed quite a bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena, which leads me to believe that there will at least be some interaction between the two cyclones. Given that, the NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours, which should foster some strengthening. Mario is forecast to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model. Weakening is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with Lorena. Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 780 FOPZ14 KNHC 190252 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 11(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 23(53) 11(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 11(26) 4(30) 1(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20(26) 10(36) 2(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190252 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 112.2W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 112.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected Thursday through Friday night, followed by a turn back to the northwest this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 15.4, -112.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.