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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Higher-end critical meteorological fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon/evening across portions of far northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and far southeast Oregon. At 12Z, the upstream MFR RAOB sampled southwest winds of around 60 mph near 15 kft along the leading edge of an area of enhanced mid-level flow associated with a vigorous mid/upper-level trough located just offshore. This area of enhanced flow aloft is forecast to overspread far northeast California and vicinity this afternoon/evening and be reasonably well timed with peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep low-level lapse rates, which should foster efficient downward mixing of the stronger flow from aloft, with sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph developing by mid/late afternoon (localized gusts 40+ mph). While high-level clouds -- currently observed on satellite imagery -- may temper surface warming somewhat, high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s coupled with a very dry air mass (surface dewpoints in the low teens) will allow for minimum RH values of 8-15%. The higher-end critical conditions are most likely to occur between 2-7 pm PDT. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with only minimal changes needed to reflect the latest observations and ensemble guidance. Please see the discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. High-end critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another area of critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected across both critical areas, and critical conditions may persist through late tonight in some areas. Elsewhere, critically low RH is expected over the remainder of the elevated area, though slightly weaker winds and/or less receptive fuels preclude any critical upgrade for those regions. Elevated to locally critical wind/RH will also likely develop across portions of eastern ID into southwest MT, but fuels are currently expected to be mostly unreceptive, so no delineation was included for that area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Higher-end critical meteorological fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon/evening across portions of far northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and far southeast Oregon. At 12Z, the upstream MFR RAOB sampled southwest winds of around 60 mph near 15 kft along the leading edge of an area of enhanced mid-level flow associated with a vigorous mid/upper-level trough located just offshore. This area of enhanced flow aloft is forecast to overspread far northeast California and vicinity this afternoon/evening and be reasonably well timed with peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep low-level lapse rates, which should foster efficient downward mixing of the stronger flow from aloft, with sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph developing by mid/late afternoon (localized gusts 40+ mph). While high-level clouds -- currently observed on satellite imagery -- may temper surface warming somewhat, high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s coupled with a very dry air mass (surface dewpoints in the low teens) will allow for minimum RH values of 8-15%. The higher-end critical conditions are most likely to occur between 2-7 pm PDT. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with only minimal changes needed to reflect the latest observations and ensemble guidance. Please see the discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. High-end critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another area of critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected across both critical areas, and critical conditions may persist through late tonight in some areas. Elsewhere, critically low RH is expected over the remainder of the elevated area, though slightly weaker winds and/or less receptive fuels preclude any critical upgrade for those regions. Elevated to locally critical wind/RH will also likely develop across portions of eastern ID into southwest MT, but fuels are currently expected to be mostly unreceptive, so no delineation was included for that area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Higher-end critical meteorological fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon/evening across portions of far northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and far southeast Oregon. At 12Z, the upstream MFR RAOB sampled southwest winds of around 60 mph near 15 kft along the leading edge of an area of enhanced mid-level flow associated with a vigorous mid/upper-level trough located just offshore. This area of enhanced flow aloft is forecast to overspread far northeast California and vicinity this afternoon/evening and be reasonably well timed with peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep low-level lapse rates, which should foster efficient downward mixing of the stronger flow from aloft, with sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph developing by mid/late afternoon (localized gusts 40+ mph). While high-level clouds -- currently observed on satellite imagery -- may temper surface warming somewhat, high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s coupled with a very dry air mass (surface dewpoints in the low teens) will allow for minimum RH values of 8-15%. The higher-end critical conditions are most likely to occur between 2-7 pm PDT. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with only minimal changes needed to reflect the latest observations and ensemble guidance. Please see the discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. High-end critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another area of critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected across both critical areas, and critical conditions may persist through late tonight in some areas. Elsewhere, critically low RH is expected over the remainder of the elevated area, though slightly weaker winds and/or less receptive fuels preclude any critical upgrade for those regions. Elevated to locally critical wind/RH will also likely develop across portions of eastern ID into southwest MT, but fuels are currently expected to be mostly unreceptive, so no delineation was included for that area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. ..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. ..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. ..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019 Read more

This will be the last daily update for the Caribou Lake Fire unless significant activity occurs. Visit AKFireInfo for the current information about wildfires across Alaska. The Caribou Lake Fire, located 25 miles northeast of Homer, Alaska, was first reported on August 19, 2019. A load of BLM Alaska Smokejumpers initially responded to the fire to protect the nearly 30 structures that were threatened by the fire. Tactical firefighting aircraft including Fire Bosses, two heavy airtankers, and the local Alaska Division of Forestry helicopter also responded to assist firefighters with both water and retardant drops. On August 20, smokejumpers, assisted by a dozer, began building fire line on the southern edge of the fire to reduce the threat to nearby structures. The Caribou Lake Fire was active on August 21; moving toward structures as poor visibility limited aircraft support. As visibility improved, aircraft were able to drop retardant to slow the spread of the fire. The Redding...

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151454 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates. The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to reduce the forecast too much for now. Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is low due to the large model spread at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 14:53:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 15:31:42 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151453 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 12(33) 4(37) X(37) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 5(22) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 10(31) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 121.1W ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 121.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -121.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151452 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today. ...Synopsis... On the larger scale, a trough will amplify near the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight, while downstream heights will rise across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Isolated lightning strikes may occur along the coasts of WA/OR as the midlevel thermal trough and steeper lapse rates spread inland tonight. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward over the upper Great Lakes today. Clusters of mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northern IL within a zone of low-level warm advection associated with the upper Great Lakes trough. There is a low chance for hail with the strongest storms this morning, though the warm advection will weaken and shift eastward later today, with an associated decrease in storm coverage/intensity expected. South of the main belt of westerlies, a midlevel low is moving slowly westward over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and will continue to support a threat for additional storms near the coast along the north edge of the richer tropical moisture. A separate midlevel low will continue to move slowly northeastward from southeast AZ toward the Four Corners through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected with diurnal heating in cloud breaks over the high terrain and in the zone of ascent north through east of the low. Vertical shear and buoyancy may become sufficient for a strong storm or two in the vicinity of extreme southwest NM this afternoon, though the threat for damaging winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today. ...Synopsis... On the larger scale, a trough will amplify near the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight, while downstream heights will rise across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Isolated lightning strikes may occur along the coasts of WA/OR as the midlevel thermal trough and steeper lapse rates spread inland tonight. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward over the upper Great Lakes today. Clusters of mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northern IL within a zone of low-level warm advection associated with the upper Great Lakes trough. There is a low chance for hail with the strongest storms this morning, though the warm advection will weaken and shift eastward later today, with an associated decrease in storm coverage/intensity expected. South of the main belt of westerlies, a midlevel low is moving slowly westward over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and will continue to support a threat for additional storms near the coast along the north edge of the richer tropical moisture. A separate midlevel low will continue to move slowly northeastward from southeast AZ toward the Four Corners through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected with diurnal heating in cloud breaks over the high terrain and in the zone of ascent north through east of the low. Vertical shear and buoyancy may become sufficient for a strong storm or two in the vicinity of extreme southwest NM this afternoon, though the threat for damaging winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today. ...Synopsis... On the larger scale, a trough will amplify near the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight, while downstream heights will rise across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Isolated lightning strikes may occur along the coasts of WA/OR as the midlevel thermal trough and steeper lapse rates spread inland tonight. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward over the upper Great Lakes today. Clusters of mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northern IL within a zone of low-level warm advection associated with the upper Great Lakes trough. There is a low chance for hail with the strongest storms this morning, though the warm advection will weaken and shift eastward later today, with an associated decrease in storm coverage/intensity expected. South of the main belt of westerlies, a midlevel low is moving slowly westward over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and will continue to support a threat for additional storms near the coast along the north edge of the richer tropical moisture. A separate midlevel low will continue to move slowly northeastward from southeast AZ toward the Four Corners through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected with diurnal heating in cloud breaks over the high terrain and in the zone of ascent north through east of the low. Vertical shear and buoyancy may become sufficient for a strong storm or two in the vicinity of extreme southwest NM this afternoon, though the threat for damaging winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 09/15/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a small area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
slowly west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 09:31:32 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150855 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70 degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial intensity of 110 kt. The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today, and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this afternoon. The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes challenging. Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken Kiko over the next few days. However, other than a slight increase in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance. It is also interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours. Some of the guidance places Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over warmer water. The official foreast, which is similar to the previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest forecast has trended southward over warm water. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a break in the ridge with a sharper trough. The southern solutions keep the ridge in tact. Based on the continuation of a slight southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more weight on the southern solutions. However, given the large spread beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto