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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will overspread dry portions of the Great Basin on Monday. At the surface, dry and windy conditions are expected ahead of a cold front which will be located from western Oregon southwestward across northwest Nevada and northern California. Wind speeds are expected to range from 30 to 40 mph across east central Nevada and west central Utah with relative humidity in the 10 to 15 percent range. A large area of critical fire weather conditions is expected across most of Nevada and into western Utah. Wind speeds across this region would support extremely critical fire weather conditions, but some moisture increase from the subtropics should keep relative humidity above extremely critical thresholds. Elevated fire weather conditions will surround the critical area and extend northeastward into eastern Idaho and southwest Montana. In this region, winds are expected to be in the 20 to 25 mph range with relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent. ..Bentley.. 09/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will overspread dry portions of the Great Basin on Monday. At the surface, dry and windy conditions are expected ahead of a cold front which will be located from western Oregon southwestward across northwest Nevada and northern California. Wind speeds are expected to range from 30 to 40 mph across east central Nevada and west central Utah with relative humidity in the 10 to 15 percent range. A large area of critical fire weather conditions is expected across most of Nevada and into western Utah. Wind speeds across this region would support extremely critical fire weather conditions, but some moisture increase from the subtropics should keep relative humidity above extremely critical thresholds. Elevated fire weather conditions will surround the critical area and extend northeastward into eastern Idaho and southwest Montana. In this region, winds are expected to be in the 20 to 25 mph range with relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent. ..Bentley.. 09/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160545
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located nearly 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with
an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form within
the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely
to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east, and further
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the
system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Rockies through much of the northern Plains Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some potential for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Within the westerlies, models continue to indicate substantial mid-level trough amplification near the northern Pacific coast during this period, in response to another strong, digging short wave trough and embedded closed low. As this occurs, downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis across the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay. Within southwesterly flow between these two features, a couple of short wave impulses are expected to remain progressive. The lead impulse may undergo considerable deformation northeast of the Dakotas through northwest Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region, as it approaches the crest of the mid-level ridge. The much more vigorous upstream impulse appears likely to maintain considerable strength while accelerating northeastward out of the Great Basin through the Dakotas by 12Z Wednesday. Beneath this regime, modestly deep surface troughing, to the lee of the northern Rockies at the outset of the period, appears likely to develop eastward across the northern and central Plains, while an embedded cyclone migrates from eastern Montana into Manitoba. A trailing cold front probably will begin to overtake the surface troughing across the northern Plains by late Tuesday night. Between the surface troughing (and developing cyclone) and low/mid-level ridging to the east, it appears that confluent low-level flow, near the nose of a persistent 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet, will maintain seasonably moist air supportive of moderate CAPE across eastern portions of the northern Plains. While much drier boundary layer conditions are forecast to prevail across the higher Plains into the northern Rockies, daytime heating is expected to contribute to steep lapse rates and deep boundary mixing. ...Wyoming through the northern High Plains... The steepening low-level lapse rates, coupled with strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling in the exit region of 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet, are expected to support sufficient destabilization to initiate thunderstorm activity by midday Tuesday across the higher terrain of western into central Wyoming. As activity gradually intensifies and spreads northeastward toward the western Dakotas through early evening, sub-cloud evaporative cooling will contribute to strengthening downdrafts, aiding downward mixing of higher momentum to the surface. At least scattered strong to severe gusts appear possible, before the onset of diurnal cooling across the Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota... As some combination of conglomerate convective outflow and the surface cold front surge into the more moist environment across the eastern Dakotas Tuesday evening, there appears potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. Given the strength of the low-level jet, and the presence of CAPE probably in excess of 2000 J/kg, considerable upscale convective growth appears possible beneath difluent upper flow. This may be accompanied by at least some severe hail and wind risk, and spread into western Minnesota before weakening overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Kerr.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Rockies through much of the northern Plains Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some potential for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Within the westerlies, models continue to indicate substantial mid-level trough amplification near the northern Pacific coast during this period, in response to another strong, digging short wave trough and embedded closed low. As this occurs, downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis across the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay. Within southwesterly flow between these two features, a couple of short wave impulses are expected to remain progressive. The lead impulse may undergo considerable deformation northeast of the Dakotas through northwest Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region, as it approaches the crest of the mid-level ridge. The much more vigorous upstream impulse appears likely to maintain considerable strength while accelerating northeastward out of the Great Basin through the Dakotas by 12Z Wednesday. Beneath this regime, modestly deep surface troughing, to the lee of the northern Rockies at the outset of the period, appears likely to develop eastward across the northern and central Plains, while an embedded cyclone migrates from eastern Montana into Manitoba. A trailing cold front probably will begin to overtake the surface troughing across the northern Plains by late Tuesday night. Between the surface troughing (and developing cyclone) and low/mid-level ridging to the east, it appears that confluent low-level flow, near the nose of a persistent 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet, will maintain seasonably moist air supportive of moderate CAPE across eastern portions of the northern Plains. While much drier boundary layer conditions are forecast to prevail across the higher Plains into the northern Rockies, daytime heating is expected to contribute to steep lapse rates and deep boundary mixing. ...Wyoming through the northern High Plains... The steepening low-level lapse rates, coupled with strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling in the exit region of 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet, are expected to support sufficient destabilization to initiate thunderstorm activity by midday Tuesday across the higher terrain of western into central Wyoming. As activity gradually intensifies and spreads northeastward toward the western Dakotas through early evening, sub-cloud evaporative cooling will contribute to strengthening downdrafts, aiding downward mixing of higher momentum to the surface. At least scattered strong to severe gusts appear possible, before the onset of diurnal cooling across the Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota... As some combination of conglomerate convective outflow and the surface cold front surge into the more moist environment across the eastern Dakotas Tuesday evening, there appears potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. Given the strength of the low-level jet, and the presence of CAPE probably in excess of 2000 J/kg, considerable upscale convective growth appears possible beneath difluent upper flow. This may be accompanied by at least some severe hail and wind risk, and spread into western Minnesota before weakening overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Kerr.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Rockies through much of the northern Plains Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some potential for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Within the westerlies, models continue to indicate substantial mid-level trough amplification near the northern Pacific coast during this period, in response to another strong, digging short wave trough and embedded closed low. As this occurs, downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis across the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay. Within southwesterly flow between these two features, a couple of short wave impulses are expected to remain progressive. The lead impulse may undergo considerable deformation northeast of the Dakotas through northwest Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region, as it approaches the crest of the mid-level ridge. The much more vigorous upstream impulse appears likely to maintain considerable strength while accelerating northeastward out of the Great Basin through the Dakotas by 12Z Wednesday. Beneath this regime, modestly deep surface troughing, to the lee of the northern Rockies at the outset of the period, appears likely to develop eastward across the northern and central Plains, while an embedded cyclone migrates from eastern Montana into Manitoba. A trailing cold front probably will begin to overtake the surface troughing across the northern Plains by late Tuesday night. Between the surface troughing (and developing cyclone) and low/mid-level ridging to the east, it appears that confluent low-level flow, near the nose of a persistent 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet, will maintain seasonably moist air supportive of moderate CAPE across eastern portions of the northern Plains. While much drier boundary layer conditions are forecast to prevail across the higher Plains into the northern Rockies, daytime heating is expected to contribute to steep lapse rates and deep boundary mixing. ...Wyoming through the northern High Plains... The steepening low-level lapse rates, coupled with strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling in the exit region of 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet, are expected to support sufficient destabilization to initiate thunderstorm activity by midday Tuesday across the higher terrain of western into central Wyoming. As activity gradually intensifies and spreads northeastward toward the western Dakotas through early evening, sub-cloud evaporative cooling will contribute to strengthening downdrafts, aiding downward mixing of higher momentum to the surface. At least scattered strong to severe gusts appear possible, before the onset of diurnal cooling across the Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota... As some combination of conglomerate convective outflow and the surface cold front surge into the more moist environment across the eastern Dakotas Tuesday evening, there appears potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. Given the strength of the low-level jet, and the presence of CAPE probably in excess of 2000 J/kg, considerable upscale convective growth appears possible beneath difluent upper flow. This may be accompanied by at least some severe hail and wind risk, and spread into western Minnesota before weakening overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Kerr.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Rockies through much of the northern Plains Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some potential for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Within the westerlies, models continue to indicate substantial mid-level trough amplification near the northern Pacific coast during this period, in response to another strong, digging short wave trough and embedded closed low. As this occurs, downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis across the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay. Within southwesterly flow between these two features, a couple of short wave impulses are expected to remain progressive. The lead impulse may undergo considerable deformation northeast of the Dakotas through northwest Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region, as it approaches the crest of the mid-level ridge. The much more vigorous upstream impulse appears likely to maintain considerable strength while accelerating northeastward out of the Great Basin through the Dakotas by 12Z Wednesday. Beneath this regime, modestly deep surface troughing, to the lee of the northern Rockies at the outset of the period, appears likely to develop eastward across the northern and central Plains, while an embedded cyclone migrates from eastern Montana into Manitoba. A trailing cold front probably will begin to overtake the surface troughing across the northern Plains by late Tuesday night. Between the surface troughing (and developing cyclone) and low/mid-level ridging to the east, it appears that confluent low-level flow, near the nose of a persistent 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet, will maintain seasonably moist air supportive of moderate CAPE across eastern portions of the northern Plains. While much drier boundary layer conditions are forecast to prevail across the higher Plains into the northern Rockies, daytime heating is expected to contribute to steep lapse rates and deep boundary mixing. ...Wyoming through the northern High Plains... The steepening low-level lapse rates, coupled with strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling in the exit region of 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet, are expected to support sufficient destabilization to initiate thunderstorm activity by midday Tuesday across the higher terrain of western into central Wyoming. As activity gradually intensifies and spreads northeastward toward the western Dakotas through early evening, sub-cloud evaporative cooling will contribute to strengthening downdrafts, aiding downward mixing of higher momentum to the surface. At least scattered strong to severe gusts appear possible, before the onset of diurnal cooling across the Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota... As some combination of conglomerate convective outflow and the surface cold front surge into the more moist environment across the eastern Dakotas Tuesday evening, there appears potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. Given the strength of the low-level jet, and the presence of CAPE probably in excess of 2000 J/kg, considerable upscale convective growth appears possible beneath difluent upper flow. This may be accompanied by at least some severe hail and wind risk, and spread into western Minnesota before weakening overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Kerr.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

Yakima Basin junior water rights holders will continue receiving 69 percent of their allotted allocations, an increase of two percentage points since July, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced on Aug. 16. Cooler weather in July allowed junior water rights holders to have just a little bit more water. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), Aug. 16, 2019 Junior water rights holders in the Yakima River basin will get an estimated 67 percent supply for irrigation after the Bureau of Reclamation updated its forecast. Senior water rights holders will still receive a full allotment. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), July 3, 2019 Junior water rights holders in the Yakima River Basin, including the Roza Irrigation District, were prorated to 72 percent as water supplies were low. The forecast will be updated on July 3. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), June 30, 2019 Water users in the Roza Irrigation District and other junior rights holders will receive 74 percent of their allotment through Sept. 30, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s June forecast. Low reservoir levels in October 2018, lower than normal winter runoff and below average mountain snowfall limited water supplies. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), June 7, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:33:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:31:26 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 13(32) 7(39) 3(42) X(42) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 5(34) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 8(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous. Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data, Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time, the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several days. The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 122.6W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 122.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -122.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...01z Update... Thunder has been removed from the Midwestern U.S. Earlier thunderstorm activity has diminished with loss of daytime heating and due to a less favorable airmass downstream across the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Diurnally driven thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed across AL/GA and portions of TX/LA eastward to the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Isolated storms will continue to be possible along the TX/LA coastal vicinity as a broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible across parts of southern/central FL and the FL east coast as Tropical Storm Humberto continue to pivot north/northeast tonight well offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Thunderstorm activity will persist a few more hours across parts of AZ/NM and vicinity as a weak mid/upper low lifts northeast across the region. Finally, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight along the WA/OR coast as a shortwave trough moves toward the Pacific coast. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2019 Read more

The Meadow Creek Fire was sparked by lightning on Sept. 8. It was fully contained on Sept. 12, after burning 4,231