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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible near the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast. ...High Plains... A large upper trough is present over the western states today, while a broad upper ridge dominates the weather in the east. Southwesterly flow aloft persists over the High Plains, where full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE. A weak midlevel impulse over NM will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over southeast CO and western portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. This activity will spread northeastward into western KS during the evening. Midlevel winds are relatively weak, which may limit overall organization of the storms. However, potential exists for gusty/damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells through the early evening. ...LA/TX... TD Imelda continues to affect portions of the upper TX and southwest LA coastal region. Transient rotating storms have been noted this morning near the Sabine river. Increasingly discrete convection on the southwest flank of the circulation may also pose a risk of a brief spin-up or two farther south along the upper/middle TX coast later today. ..Hart/Gleason.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible near the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast. ...High Plains... A large upper trough is present over the western states today, while a broad upper ridge dominates the weather in the east. Southwesterly flow aloft persists over the High Plains, where full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE. A weak midlevel impulse over NM will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over southeast CO and western portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. This activity will spread northeastward into western KS during the evening. Midlevel winds are relatively weak, which may limit overall organization of the storms. However, potential exists for gusty/damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells through the early evening. ...LA/TX... TD Imelda continues to affect portions of the upper TX and southwest LA coastal region. Transient rotating storms have been noted this morning near the Sabine river. Increasingly discrete convection on the southwest flank of the circulation may also pose a risk of a brief spin-up or two farther south along the upper/middle TX coast later today. ..Hart/Gleason.. 09/19/2019 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:58:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:51:59 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191453 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very well have decreased since the last advisory. Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario (or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day 5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast later today. The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:51:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:58:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 191450 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 19(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 39(40) 28(68) 8(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 19(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 191450 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.5W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northeast or northeast heading at a similar forward speed is expected for the next day or two. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 16.5, -111.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this morning. More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes. Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with an average of the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates. Although the inner core has likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold cloud tops over the center. Lorena will be traversing very warm water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable. Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher statistical guidance. This foreast could be on the low side if the inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone. Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. 3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued, and residents should heed the advice of local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 191449 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 19(82) 4(86) X(86) X(86) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 24(24) 20(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 19(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 66 7(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ISLAS MARIAS 50 31 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 64 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 7(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 1(24) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos. The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita * Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slow forward speed should continue Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and tonight, and then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.5, -105.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:45:24 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center. The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the east Pacific basin for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 804 WTPZ33 KNHC 191447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 128.7W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -128.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 3(22) 1(23) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 35(54) 7(61) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 6(27) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI