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Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 202059 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS. NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Some rain fell in East Texas, but it was not sufficient to promote the growth of pastures and hay fields. Most counties had burn bans. The Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Sept. 17, 2019

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..09/20/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-027-029-031-037-043-047-049-051-055-057-059- 065-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-202140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS SDC021-031-041-107-129-202140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY POTTER WALWORTH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:47:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 21:59:58 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202046 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A resumption of northeasterly shear has caused the center of Mario to peak out to the northeast of its convective canopy. This is the second day in row that the low-level center of Mario has become exposed after it developed a low- to mid-level eye in microwave imagery the previous night. ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC showed maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity estimate is still 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling has occurred. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Mario has already peaked and should only weaken from now on. Given how the last few nights have gone, I am not confident that Mario will weaken as quickly as the models suggest, but it does seem likely that steady weakening will begin by tomorrow afternoon, if not sooner. The tropical storm will reach some very cold water by 72 h, and it is forecast to become a remnant low at that time. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but it is above most of the guidance for the first 72 h. The track forecast remains highly uncertain, especially beyond 24 h. The guidance spread is a little lower than it was before, but the run-to-run consistency is still quite low. In general, the models are calling for less binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario simply lifting northward to north-northeastward in Lorena's wake. As a result, Mario is now forecast by most of the models to move closer to the Baja California peninsula than it was before. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted substantially to the east beyond 24 h accordingly, and there remains a distinct chance that Mario will directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:46:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 21:53:31 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 30 39(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 110W 50 2 16(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 55 16(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 202046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 110.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 110.0 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the north or north-northwest is expected tonight and tomorrow. The tropical storm could then turn northwestward late this weekend. On the forecast track, Mario is forecast to move near or west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 18.0, -110.0 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko hasn't changed much over the past 6 hours. Microwave imagery continues to show a fairly well-defined inner-core, but cloud tops have been warming during the past few hours. Satellite-based estimates continue to hover around 50 kt, and the estimated intensity is therefore held at that value. Kiko has turned to the northwest yet again, and should turn westward later today. There is no change in the forecast reasoning. Kiko will likely move on a wave-like path westward for the next several days, losing latitude as a mid-level ridge to the north amplifies, and gaining latitude as the ridge weakens. The only difference in the NHC forecast is that Kiko is forecast to move very slightly faster than it was before. It should be noted that there is still a decent amount of spread in the guidance regarding how quickly Kiko will move west even though the multi-model consensus, which is the basis for the NHC forecast, has not changed much. The tropical storm may have exhausted its opportunity to strengthen now that it has begun to turn back westward, and all of the reliable intensity guidance forecasts that Kiko will slowly weaken. The NHC forecast shows the same, but maintains Kiko as a tropical storm, still over the eastern North Pacific, through day 5. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone, and small short-term fluctuations in intensity are certainly possible during the next few days, but anticipating such fluctuations is beyond the current science of hurricane forecasting. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 17.9N 130.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 4(28) 1(29) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202044 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 130.8W ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 130.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.9, -130.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 624 WTPZ23 KNHC 202043 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 130.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Late planted Christmas tree seedlings in Haywood County needed irrigation and have been affected by drought. my40.tv (Greenville, S.C.), Sept. 18, 2019

Some crops in the Fairmont area have been affected by the hot, dry weather, but not so much as if the harsh weather had occurred earlier in the growing season. WDTV-TV CBS 5 (Clarksburg, W.V.), Sept. 19, 2019

MD 1989 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...northwest Nebraska and western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202007Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon into the evening, posing a risk for isolated large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or two. Depending on convective trends, a WW might be needed by 22Z. DISCUSSION...A couple of storms are in the process of developing over the higher terrain of southeast WY as well as farther north over the Black Hills of western SD. This regime is mostly post-frontal with a quasi-stationary or slow moving cold front from the western Dakotas into southeast WY where surface dewpoints are in the 50s and temperatures are rising through the 70s. Latest objective analysis show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in the post-frontal regime with 1500-2000 j/kg farther east in warm sector. Storms are expected to increase in coverage from eastern WY into western SD and northwest NE as deeper forcing for ascent accompanying an upstream shortwave trough spreads east above the destabilizing boundary layer. Winds aloft will strengthen with approach of the shortwave trough, supporting 40-50 kt effective bulk shear and some supercell structures. Isolated large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats. A secondary branch of the low-level jet is forecast to increase this evening from western NE into western SD in response to the approaching upper trough. A small window might exist by early evening in this region for a couple of tornadoes, before the surface layer begins to decouple. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41720495 43370439 45040367 44840190 43720179 42030322 41720495 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Discussion... No change was made to the severe probabilities. The forecast appears on track. Minor changes were made to the 10-percent thunderstorm probability line across the central Great Lakes and the central FL Peninsula. ..Smith.. 09/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Discussion... No change was made to the severe probabilities. The forecast appears on track. Minor changes were made to the 10-percent thunderstorm probability line across the central Great Lakes and the central FL Peninsula. ..Smith.. 09/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Read more