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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening from Kansas to Iowa. A marginal severe threat is also possible across parts of north-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from western Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the front. Other more isolated cells are located eastward across the warm sector. Model forecasts gradually increase convective coverage this evening as an MCS develops and move northeastward across northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa. The airmass along this corridor is moderately unstable with the Topeka observed 00Z sounding showing about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The wind profile has strong directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL with 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail with the stronger cells in the line. As the line grows upscale this evening, the wind damage threat will likely increase. The greatest chance for wind damage will be associated with bowing line segments. A tornado or two can not be ruled out with rotating cells embedded in the line or with discrete cells ahead of the line...see MCD 1998 and 1999. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the northern High Plains extending southwestward into the Intermountain West. Southwest mid-level flow is in place in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed across central and northern Minnesota. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the front in north-central Minnesota and ahead of the front in northwest Wisconsin. Model forecasts gradually move this activity eastward and slowly decrease convective coverage. An axis of instability is located from northwest Iowa into northern Wisconsin where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This is evident on the Minneapolis 00Z sounding. In addition, the sounding has a wind profile with 45 kt of 0-6 km shear. Steep lapse rates are also evident from the surface to mid-levels. This could be favorable for rotating storms with cells that remain discrete. This cells would have a wind damage and hail threat. As instability weakens over the next few hours, the severe threat is expected to further diminish. ..Broyles.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening from Kansas to Iowa. A marginal severe threat is also possible across parts of north-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from western Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the front. Other more isolated cells are located eastward across the warm sector. Model forecasts gradually increase convective coverage this evening as an MCS develops and move northeastward across northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa. The airmass along this corridor is moderately unstable with the Topeka observed 00Z sounding showing about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The wind profile has strong directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL with 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail with the stronger cells in the line. As the line grows upscale this evening, the wind damage threat will likely increase. The greatest chance for wind damage will be associated with bowing line segments. A tornado or two can not be ruled out with rotating cells embedded in the line or with discrete cells ahead of the line...see MCD 1998 and 1999. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the northern High Plains extending southwestward into the Intermountain West. Southwest mid-level flow is in place in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed across central and northern Minnesota. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the front in north-central Minnesota and ahead of the front in northwest Wisconsin. Model forecasts gradually move this activity eastward and slowly decrease convective coverage. An axis of instability is located from northwest Iowa into northern Wisconsin where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This is evident on the Minneapolis 00Z sounding. In addition, the sounding has a wind profile with 45 kt of 0-6 km shear. Steep lapse rates are also evident from the surface to mid-levels. This could be favorable for rotating storms with cells that remain discrete. This cells would have a wind damage and hail threat. As instability weakens over the next few hours, the severe threat is expected to further diminish. ..Broyles.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening from Kansas to Iowa. A marginal severe threat is also possible across parts of north-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from western Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the front. Other more isolated cells are located eastward across the warm sector. Model forecasts gradually increase convective coverage this evening as an MCS develops and move northeastward across northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa. The airmass along this corridor is moderately unstable with the Topeka observed 00Z sounding showing about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The wind profile has strong directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL with 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail with the stronger cells in the line. As the line grows upscale this evening, the wind damage threat will likely increase. The greatest chance for wind damage will be associated with bowing line segments. A tornado or two can not be ruled out with rotating cells embedded in the line or with discrete cells ahead of the line...see MCD 1998 and 1999. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the northern High Plains extending southwestward into the Intermountain West. Southwest mid-level flow is in place in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed across central and northern Minnesota. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the front in north-central Minnesota and ahead of the front in northwest Wisconsin. Model forecasts gradually move this activity eastward and slowly decrease convective coverage. An axis of instability is located from northwest Iowa into northern Wisconsin where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This is evident on the Minneapolis 00Z sounding. In addition, the sounding has a wind profile with 45 kt of 0-6 km shear. Steep lapse rates are also evident from the surface to mid-levels. This could be favorable for rotating storms with cells that remain discrete. This cells would have a wind damage and hail threat. As instability weakens over the next few hours, the severe threat is expected to further diminish. ..Broyles.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening from Kansas to Iowa. A marginal severe threat is also possible across parts of north-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from western Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the front. Other more isolated cells are located eastward across the warm sector. Model forecasts gradually increase convective coverage this evening as an MCS develops and move northeastward across northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa. The airmass along this corridor is moderately unstable with the Topeka observed 00Z sounding showing about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The wind profile has strong directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL with 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail with the stronger cells in the line. As the line grows upscale this evening, the wind damage threat will likely increase. The greatest chance for wind damage will be associated with bowing line segments. A tornado or two can not be ruled out with rotating cells embedded in the line or with discrete cells ahead of the line...see MCD 1998 and 1999. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the northern High Plains extending southwestward into the Intermountain West. Southwest mid-level flow is in place in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed across central and northern Minnesota. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the front in north-central Minnesota and ahead of the front in northwest Wisconsin. Model forecasts gradually move this activity eastward and slowly decrease convective coverage. An axis of instability is located from northwest Iowa into northern Wisconsin where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This is evident on the Minneapolis 00Z sounding. In addition, the sounding has a wind profile with 45 kt of 0-6 km shear. Steep lapse rates are also evident from the surface to mid-levels. This could be favorable for rotating storms with cells that remain discrete. This cells would have a wind damage and hail threat. As instability weakens over the next few hours, the severe threat is expected to further diminish. ..Broyles.. 09/22/2019 Read more

MD 1999 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IA...NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1999 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Areas affected...Southwest/Central IA...Northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 220054Z - 220300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected to spread/develop across southwest into central IA. A few storms may produce large hail and locally severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased markedly along a corridor from north of DDC into southeast NE over the last few hours. This pre-frontal activity should continue to expand/develop into IA over the next 1-3 hours as deep, moist southwesterly steering current encourages northeast movement. Plains convection initially developed within a steep-lapse rate environment, however buoyancy is considerably weaker over IA where surface temperatures are only in the low-mid 70s. Latest thinking is robust updrafts will spread east of ww657 but likely weaken a bit downstream with more marginal hail and only isolated strong/severe wind gusts possible. ..Darrow/Grams.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41469613 42559346 41529256 40239506 40459638 41469613 Read more

The McKinley Fire started near milepost 91 of the Parks Highway on Aug. 17, 2019. The Alaska Type 2 Interagency Incident Management Team assumed management of the fire the evening of Monday, Aug. 19. Command of the fire was transferred to the Northern Rockies Team 7 Incident Management Team from September 2 to 13, 2019. The fire is currently being managed by a local Type 3 Incident Management Team. Operations are based out of Camp Ladasa.52 primary residences, three commercial structures and 84 outbuildings were destroyed in the fire on the night of Aug. 18. The fire is 3,288 acres and 100% contained.There has been no fire growth for some time with precipitation over the fire area and cooler temperatures. Current fire behavior is minimal smoldering inside the perimeter. Firefighters will continue repair efforts as well as patrol the fire area for hot

MD 1998 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... FOR KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1998 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Areas affected...Kansas...Southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657... Valid 220025Z - 220230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will continue across the northwestern half of ww657. Isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts are expected. DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection continues to expand along a corridor from just north of DDC into extreme southeast NE. This activity is developing along northern edged of higher-PW plume within a zone of low-level confluence. Earlier discrete supercell structures are losing their identity with multiple storm mergers expected to result in a southwest-northeast near-continues line over the next few hours. Even so, latest hail algorithm suggests the strongest updrafts remain capable of producing hail on the order of 1-1.5". Strong-severe convective event is expected to linger well into the overnight hours as LLJ strengthens over northeast KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37710109 40649761 40639495 37719852 37710109 Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-027-029-041-047-051-053-055-057-061-067-069-081-083-089- 101-105-113-117-123-127-131-135-141-143-145-149-157-159-161-163- 165-167-169-183-185-195-197-201-220040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN JEWELL LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SMITH STAFFORD TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC025-059-067-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-147-151-169-220040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Lorena, located over the Gulf of
California, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 23:41:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:44:35 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 103 WTPZ35 KNHC 212340 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 111.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MULEGE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 11 mph (18 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf of California this evening and reach the tropical storm warning area later tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday night: Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches. East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 6:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 27.1, -111.0 with movement N at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 21 23:14:02 UTC 2019.

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0657 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0657 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 657 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212210Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to northeast Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening from southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska with primary threats of large hail and damaging wind. This activity should evolve into one or more clusters with the severe threat waning towards late evening as it transitions to predominantly a heavy rainfall hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Beatrice NE to 10 miles east southeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:49:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:44:35 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212047 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 111.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday. Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but heavy rains should continue for another day or so. Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high. This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to continue on this general track for the next day or two until dissipation over the Sonoran Desert. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:41:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:38:03 GMT