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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO... The critical area across the Four Corners region has been expanded northward to include more of southeastern/east-central UT and western CO. A 50-60+ kt mid-level jet will remain over this region today, and strong/gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph will likely overlap RH values of 10-15% for at least a few hours this afternoon. A separate critical area has been introduced across parts of eastern CO. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% should develop this afternoon to the west of a surface trough/dryline. Generally minor adjustments have been made to the surrounding elevated delineation across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains based on latest observations and short-term model guidance. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 09/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough positioned over the Great Basin will shift east through the Northern Rockies into portions of the central/northern Plains. Enhanced mid-level flow of 60-70 kt will be present within the base of the trough during this progression. At the surface, a broad region of dry and breezy southwesterly winds will develop during the afternoon beneath the mid-level jet. ...Four Corners Region and portions of the central Rockies and central High Plains... Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will develop during the afternoon while RH values fall into the 15-20% range over much of the region. Fuels remain receptive to large-fire spread, and thus, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Refinements were made to the existing elevated area over portions of the central High Plans and central Rockies, based on the position of moist boundaries as depicted in the latest high-resolution guidance. A critical area was added near the Four Corners region, where it appears most likely that critical wind/RH thresholds will be exceeded for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO... The critical area across the Four Corners region has been expanded northward to include more of southeastern/east-central UT and western CO. A 50-60+ kt mid-level jet will remain over this region today, and strong/gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph will likely overlap RH values of 10-15% for at least a few hours this afternoon. A separate critical area has been introduced across parts of eastern CO. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% should develop this afternoon to the west of a surface trough/dryline. Generally minor adjustments have been made to the surrounding elevated delineation across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains based on latest observations and short-term model guidance. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 09/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough positioned over the Great Basin will shift east through the Northern Rockies into portions of the central/northern Plains. Enhanced mid-level flow of 60-70 kt will be present within the base of the trough during this progression. At the surface, a broad region of dry and breezy southwesterly winds will develop during the afternoon beneath the mid-level jet. ...Four Corners Region and portions of the central Rockies and central High Plains... Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will develop during the afternoon while RH values fall into the 15-20% range over much of the region. Fuels remain receptive to large-fire spread, and thus, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Refinements were made to the existing elevated area over portions of the central High Plans and central Rockies, based on the position of moist boundaries as depicted in the latest high-resolution guidance. A critical area was added near the Four Corners region, where it appears most likely that critical wind/RH thresholds will be exceeded for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO... The critical area across the Four Corners region has been expanded northward to include more of southeastern/east-central UT and western CO. A 50-60+ kt mid-level jet will remain over this region today, and strong/gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph will likely overlap RH values of 10-15% for at least a few hours this afternoon. A separate critical area has been introduced across parts of eastern CO. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% should develop this afternoon to the west of a surface trough/dryline. Generally minor adjustments have been made to the surrounding elevated delineation across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains based on latest observations and short-term model guidance. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 09/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough positioned over the Great Basin will shift east through the Northern Rockies into portions of the central/northern Plains. Enhanced mid-level flow of 60-70 kt will be present within the base of the trough during this progression. At the surface, a broad region of dry and breezy southwesterly winds will develop during the afternoon beneath the mid-level jet. ...Four Corners Region and portions of the central Rockies and central High Plains... Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will develop during the afternoon while RH values fall into the 15-20% range over much of the region. Fuels remain receptive to large-fire spread, and thus, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Refinements were made to the existing elevated area over portions of the central High Plans and central Rockies, based on the position of moist boundaries as depicted in the latest high-resolution guidance. A critical area was added near the Four Corners region, where it appears most likely that critical wind/RH thresholds will be exceeded for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO... The critical area across the Four Corners region has been expanded northward to include more of southeastern/east-central UT and western CO. A 50-60+ kt mid-level jet will remain over this region today, and strong/gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph will likely overlap RH values of 10-15% for at least a few hours this afternoon. A separate critical area has been introduced across parts of eastern CO. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% should develop this afternoon to the west of a surface trough/dryline. Generally minor adjustments have been made to the surrounding elevated delineation across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains based on latest observations and short-term model guidance. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 09/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough positioned over the Great Basin will shift east through the Northern Rockies into portions of the central/northern Plains. Enhanced mid-level flow of 60-70 kt will be present within the base of the trough during this progression. At the surface, a broad region of dry and breezy southwesterly winds will develop during the afternoon beneath the mid-level jet. ...Four Corners Region and portions of the central Rockies and central High Plains... Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will develop during the afternoon while RH values fall into the 15-20% range over much of the region. Fuels remain receptive to large-fire spread, and thus, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Refinements were made to the existing elevated area over portions of the central High Plans and central Rockies, based on the position of moist boundaries as depicted in the latest high-resolution guidance. A critical area was added near the Four Corners region, where it appears most likely that critical wind/RH thresholds will be exceeded for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Dial.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Dial.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Dial.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Dial.. 09/20/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern and Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the Rockies and High Plains. Several weak impulses are noted from CO northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time. The timing and effects of this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for this afternoon and evening. Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern MT into eastern WY. These storms will be in a favorable environment for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes. These storms will likely congeal and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Plains... A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern OK. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Dial.. 09/20/2019 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:58:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:44:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:56:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:38:18 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 201455 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave imagery since the last advisory indicates that Mario has been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection is mostly displaced to the southwest of the cyclone's surface center. This may be a sign that northeasterly shear has again increased across Mario, at least for the moment. The intensity estimate is still 55 kt based on Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, but objective values are lower. Almost no change was made to the NHC intensity forecast. SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that substantial northeasterly shear will continue to affect Mario for the next couple of days, and by the time the shear relaxes early next week, the cyclone will have reached much cooler waters. Given that Mario is in better shape than it was a day ago, some slight strengthening is still shown in the short-term forecast, but only the GFS explicitly forecasts Mario to reach hurricane strength. Nearly all of the dynamical models forecast that Mario will lose its convection and become a remnant low by 96 h or sooner, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. The track forecast is very low confidence, evidenced by the fact that the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both outliers from their respective ensembles run at the same time. In fact, both models are outside of their associated guidance envelope and show Mario getting very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how much Mario and Lorena will interact during the next 2 or 3 days. The NHC forecast continues to keep the two systems separate, showing both systems moving generally northwestward in tandem at 48 h and beyond. However, given the close proximity of the two cyclones, a merger can not be ruled out. The NHC forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble envelopes. Significant changes may still be required to the track forecast later today, and there is still a chance that Mario could directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.9N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201455 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 3 54(57) 6(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 26 41(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) 1(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201454 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 201454 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 110.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, however confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 17.9, -110.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201452 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 65 kt. Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at 2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 201452 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 50 9(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 15 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 64 5(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SAN JOSE CABO 50 17 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201452 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA CRAWLING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 933 WTPZ25 KNHC 201451 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA