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Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 12(13) 6(19) 4(23) 5(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10(13) 39(52) 10(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 7(25) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190849 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor satellite imagery as well as satellite-derived winds indicate that there is some southwesterly shear undercutting Kiko tonight, with a large upper level trough digging several hundred miles to the northwest of the cyclone. This flow is likely feeding some dry air into the system, and these factors could explain why Kiko has not been intensifying recently. The objective Dvorak estimate from TAFB as well as subjective intensity estimates suggest that the initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt. Despite the forecast for shear to be generally relaxed, Kiko will have to overcome dry and stable air to its north and west that may keep entraining into the cyclone's circulation in the coming days. The majority of the intensity guidance only show some slight strengthening over the next several days. And, due to the mixed positive and negative signals for intensification, the official forecast agrees with this scenario and gradually brings Kiko to hurricane strength in about 36 hours, and intensifies it just a little more after that time. The official forecast intensity is very near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The initial motion is westward at 5 kt. A developing weakness in the ridge to the northwest of Kiko will allow for a west-northwest to northwest motion over the next couple of days. Ridging will rebuild to the northwest of Kiko after that time, which will induce a west-southwestward motion. Late in the forecast period, that ridge will weaken, resulting in a turn back to the northwest. The main change to the official forecast track was to nudge it a little to the right, as the well performing ECMWF has shifted quite a bit northward on the latest run. The official forecast now lies on the southern edge of the clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 128.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 128.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 128.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected tonight through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may re-gain hurricane strength by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 15.9, -128.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190843 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65 kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and these winds are limited to a very small area near the center. Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest. Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will continue as a separate system through five days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula and others to the east. The NHC forecast follows the previous one, and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the peninsula. This forecast is highly uncertain at this time. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern Mexico today. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction currently occuring. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190842 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 2(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 48(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 9(51) 1(52) X(52) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 21(31) 4(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 69(75) 8(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 37(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 46 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P VALLARTA 50 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area today and move back over water later today or Friday. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again in 12 to 24 hours, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within portions of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur today within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.6, -105.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Plains on Saturday, most notably from Kansas into Iowa. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern Plains and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad zone of strong southwest winds aloft encompassing much of the central and northern Plains, upper MS valley and Great Lakes. The primary surface trough will extend from northern ND and MN into Ontario, with a cold front roughly from MN to KS by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, and will contribute to areas of moderate instability. The most favorable combination of instability, lift, and shear appears to be from KS northeastward into IA and northern MO, although severe storm potential exists as far north as MN and WI. ...Central Plains... Upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast to move north over OK, KS, MO and IA, with a cold front roughly from central KS into western IA by peak heating. Given the very moist air mass, capping will be minimal and storms may form early in the day from KS into MO in the moist sector with isolated severe possible. Veering winds with height and favorable effective SRH may favor a couple supercells producing either strong wind gusts or a brief/weak tornado. The most likely time for concentrated severe storms will be during the late afternoon and evening, beneath a strengthening 40-50 kt low-level jet centered over KS. Good model agreement exists within the zone from KS into northern MO and IA depicting significant storm coverage. Damaging wind appears to be the main concern during the evening, and storms may persist into IA and even western IL given strong westerlies aloft. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Scattered storms are expected throughout the day from MN into WI. Early day storms may be associated with warm advection at 850 mb, with a secondary area of storms along the cold front as it moves across MN during the day. Marginal instability is forecast, with long hodographs suggesting a wind or marginal hail threat. It appears that a dry slot will move over the region during the day, with veering winds above the surface. In addition, 850 mb wind convergence will focus farther north into Ontario, with some models showing speed divergence over MN. Therefore at this time, only isolated severe storms are forecast. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Plains on Saturday, most notably from Kansas into Iowa. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern Plains and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad zone of strong southwest winds aloft encompassing much of the central and northern Plains, upper MS valley and Great Lakes. The primary surface trough will extend from northern ND and MN into Ontario, with a cold front roughly from MN to KS by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, and will contribute to areas of moderate instability. The most favorable combination of instability, lift, and shear appears to be from KS northeastward into IA and northern MO, although severe storm potential exists as far north as MN and WI. ...Central Plains... Upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast to move north over OK, KS, MO and IA, with a cold front roughly from central KS into western IA by peak heating. Given the very moist air mass, capping will be minimal and storms may form early in the day from KS into MO in the moist sector with isolated severe possible. Veering winds with height and favorable effective SRH may favor a couple supercells producing either strong wind gusts or a brief/weak tornado. The most likely time for concentrated severe storms will be during the late afternoon and evening, beneath a strengthening 40-50 kt low-level jet centered over KS. Good model agreement exists within the zone from KS into northern MO and IA depicting significant storm coverage. Damaging wind appears to be the main concern during the evening, and storms may persist into IA and even western IL given strong westerlies aloft. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Scattered storms are expected throughout the day from MN into WI. Early day storms may be associated with warm advection at 850 mb, with a secondary area of storms along the cold front as it moves across MN during the day. Marginal instability is forecast, with long hodographs suggesting a wind or marginal hail threat. It appears that a dry slot will move over the region during the day, with veering winds above the surface. In addition, 850 mb wind convergence will focus farther north into Ontario, with some models showing speed divergence over MN. Therefore at this time, only isolated severe storms are forecast. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Plains on Saturday, most notably from Kansas into Iowa. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern Plains and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad zone of strong southwest winds aloft encompassing much of the central and northern Plains, upper MS valley and Great Lakes. The primary surface trough will extend from northern ND and MN into Ontario, with a cold front roughly from MN to KS by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, and will contribute to areas of moderate instability. The most favorable combination of instability, lift, and shear appears to be from KS northeastward into IA and northern MO, although severe storm potential exists as far north as MN and WI. ...Central Plains... Upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast to move north over OK, KS, MO and IA, with a cold front roughly from central KS into western IA by peak heating. Given the very moist air mass, capping will be minimal and storms may form early in the day from KS into MO in the moist sector with isolated severe possible. Veering winds with height and favorable effective SRH may favor a couple supercells producing either strong wind gusts or a brief/weak tornado. The most likely time for concentrated severe storms will be during the late afternoon and evening, beneath a strengthening 40-50 kt low-level jet centered over KS. Good model agreement exists within the zone from KS into northern MO and IA depicting significant storm coverage. Damaging wind appears to be the main concern during the evening, and storms may persist into IA and even western IL given strong westerlies aloft. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Scattered storms are expected throughout the day from MN into WI. Early day storms may be associated with warm advection at 850 mb, with a secondary area of storms along the cold front as it moves across MN during the day. Marginal instability is forecast, with long hodographs suggesting a wind or marginal hail threat. It appears that a dry slot will move over the region during the day, with veering winds above the surface. In addition, 850 mb wind convergence will focus farther north into Ontario, with some models showing speed divergence over MN. Therefore at this time, only isolated severe storms are forecast. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible on Friday across the northern Plains, with isolated activity into the central and southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the Rockies and into the Plains, with moderate southwesterly winds aloft enhancing shear profiles. Low pressure will develop from eastern WY into ND, with a cold front moving across the Dakotas and Nebraska overnight. Ahead of the front and east of the High Plains lee trough, southerly winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with moderate instability developing due to cooling aloft and daytime heating. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain relatively stable conditions over much of the East. ...Northern Plains... Capping is expected to erode by early afternoon across the warm sector, with a rapid increase in storm coverage along and east of the cold front from far eastern MT/WY into the central and western Dakotas. Deep-layer shear will be modest initially as the stronger winds aloft remain to the west, suggesting mixed storm mode. However, stronger low-level shear and SRH will exist over ND into northwest MN, where a tornado or two is possible. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are expected for the remainder of the Slight Risk area. ...Central and southern High Plains... An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop near the lee trough and dryline from eastern CO into far eastern NM where southeast surface winds will maintain low-level moisture. Models suggest early day storms are possible over the southern High Plains, which increases uncertainty regarding afternoon storm chances. While low-level convergence will exist near the lee trough from CO into KS, most of the lift associated with the upper trough will remain to the north. Conditionally, heating near the dryline may support at least isolated storms along the lee trough from CO to NM to the TX Panhandle. Lengthening hodographs will favor cells capable of large hail. If predictability regarding storm coverage increases in later outlooks, a Slight Risk may be considered. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible on Friday across the northern Plains, with isolated activity into the central and southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the Rockies and into the Plains, with moderate southwesterly winds aloft enhancing shear profiles. Low pressure will develop from eastern WY into ND, with a cold front moving across the Dakotas and Nebraska overnight. Ahead of the front and east of the High Plains lee trough, southerly winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with moderate instability developing due to cooling aloft and daytime heating. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain relatively stable conditions over much of the East. ...Northern Plains... Capping is expected to erode by early afternoon across the warm sector, with a rapid increase in storm coverage along and east of the cold front from far eastern MT/WY into the central and western Dakotas. Deep-layer shear will be modest initially as the stronger winds aloft remain to the west, suggesting mixed storm mode. However, stronger low-level shear and SRH will exist over ND into northwest MN, where a tornado or two is possible. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are expected for the remainder of the Slight Risk area. ...Central and southern High Plains... An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop near the lee trough and dryline from eastern CO into far eastern NM where southeast surface winds will maintain low-level moisture. Models suggest early day storms are possible over the southern High Plains, which increases uncertainty regarding afternoon storm chances. While low-level convergence will exist near the lee trough from CO into KS, most of the lift associated with the upper trough will remain to the north. Conditionally, heating near the dryline may support at least isolated storms along the lee trough from CO to NM to the TX Panhandle. Lengthening hodographs will favor cells capable of large hail. If predictability regarding storm coverage increases in later outlooks, a Slight Risk may be considered. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible on Friday across the northern Plains, with isolated activity into the central and southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the Rockies and into the Plains, with moderate southwesterly winds aloft enhancing shear profiles. Low pressure will develop from eastern WY into ND, with a cold front moving across the Dakotas and Nebraska overnight. Ahead of the front and east of the High Plains lee trough, southerly winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with moderate instability developing due to cooling aloft and daytime heating. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain relatively stable conditions over much of the East. ...Northern Plains... Capping is expected to erode by early afternoon across the warm sector, with a rapid increase in storm coverage along and east of the cold front from far eastern MT/WY into the central and western Dakotas. Deep-layer shear will be modest initially as the stronger winds aloft remain to the west, suggesting mixed storm mode. However, stronger low-level shear and SRH will exist over ND into northwest MN, where a tornado or two is possible. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are expected for the remainder of the Slight Risk area. ...Central and southern High Plains... An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop near the lee trough and dryline from eastern CO into far eastern NM where southeast surface winds will maintain low-level moisture. Models suggest early day storms are possible over the southern High Plains, which increases uncertainty regarding afternoon storm chances. While low-level convergence will exist near the lee trough from CO into KS, most of the lift associated with the upper trough will remain to the north. Conditionally, heating near the dryline may support at least isolated storms along the lee trough from CO to NM to the TX Panhandle. Lengthening hodographs will favor cells capable of large hail. If predictability regarding storm coverage increases in later outlooks, a Slight Risk may be considered. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/19/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough from Day1/Thursday will shift east on Friday which will increase fire weather concerns in portions of the central Rockies and the central High Plains. Deep mixing will strengthen surface winds across much of this region with wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph expected. Relative humidity will vary across the area from around 15 percent up to 30 percent. Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible within the broader elevated delineation, but the highest likelihood of critical conditions remains ambiguous at this time. Winds are expected to be strongest in Wyoming where relative humidity will be the highest, and lightest in eastern Utah where relative humidity will be the lowest. In eastern Colorado, both winds and relative humidity are expected to be borderline critical. Will continue to monitor the forecast for potential critical additions, especially if forecast guidance is drier or lee cyclogenesis is stronger, both of which would likely increase the likelihood of critical fire weather conditions. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough from Day1/Thursday will shift east on Friday which will increase fire weather concerns in portions of the central Rockies and the central High Plains. Deep mixing will strengthen surface winds across much of this region with wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph expected. Relative humidity will vary across the area from around 15 percent up to 30 percent. Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible within the broader elevated delineation, but the highest likelihood of critical conditions remains ambiguous at this time. Winds are expected to be strongest in Wyoming where relative humidity will be the highest, and lightest in eastern Utah where relative humidity will be the lowest. In eastern Colorado, both winds and relative humidity are expected to be borderline critical. Will continue to monitor the forecast for potential critical additions, especially if forecast guidance is drier or lee cyclogenesis is stronger, both of which would likely increase the likelihood of critical fire weather conditions. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough from Day1/Thursday will shift east on Friday which will increase fire weather concerns in portions of the central Rockies and the central High Plains. Deep mixing will strengthen surface winds across much of this region with wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph expected. Relative humidity will vary across the area from around 15 percent up to 30 percent. Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible within the broader elevated delineation, but the highest likelihood of critical conditions remains ambiguous at this time. Winds are expected to be strongest in Wyoming where relative humidity will be the highest, and lightest in eastern Utah where relative humidity will be the lowest. In eastern Colorado, both winds and relative humidity are expected to be borderline critical. Will continue to monitor the forecast for potential critical additions, especially if forecast guidance is drier or lee cyclogenesis is stronger, both of which would likely increase the likelihood of critical fire weather conditions. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more