Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150216 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 4(29) 1(30) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 22(45) 5(50) 1(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 10(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150216 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24 hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance. The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt. There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast, it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north of the latest NHC forecast. The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say, confidence in the forecast is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150216 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 120.1W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 120.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A slightly slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday, but Kiko is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150216 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PHX TO 25 ENE PHX TO 35 SE GBN. ..SPC..09/15/19 ATTN...WFO...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC013-150240- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARICOPA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 653 SEVERE TSTM AZ 142145Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Arizona * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase over the mountains, with some of the storms and their related outflows expected to move onto the desert floor this evening. Severe-caliber winds/blowing dust will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Gila Bend AZ to 90 miles east of Phoenix AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 07015. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible the remainder of the evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...01z Update... The Marginal risk area has been removed from the Appalachians as convection has diminished with loss of daytime heating. A few storms will linger another 1-2 hours, but severe threat is expected to be low the remainder of the evening. The Marginal risk area across the Upper Midwest has been modified based on latest hi-res guidance trends and surface observations. The biggest change was to trim some of the area across central MN into northern WI. Thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon have largely weakened, and additional convection forming that far north overnight does not appear likely. Latest hi-res guidance has trended toward additional development later this evening/overnight ahead of a weak surface boundary/low as the low level jet increases and stronger warm advection shifts east from southern WI into northern IL. Expect that a line/cluster of storms will develop western/central IL and shift east into southern WI/northern IL, posing mainly a threat for marginal hail and possibly some strong gusts. Given latest trends, have expanded the Marginal risk on the southern end across southern IA/northern IL. Thunderstorms continue to shift westward off of higher terrain across central AZ. Strong gusts will continue to be possible with this activity for several more hours this evening. The severe threat should diminish after 06z as convection approaches the Lower CO Valley. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible the remainder of the evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...01z Update... The Marginal risk area has been removed from the Appalachians as convection has diminished with loss of daytime heating. A few storms will linger another 1-2 hours, but severe threat is expected to be low the remainder of the evening. The Marginal risk area across the Upper Midwest has been modified based on latest hi-res guidance trends and surface observations. The biggest change was to trim some of the area across central MN into northern WI. Thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon have largely weakened, and additional convection forming that far north overnight does not appear likely. Latest hi-res guidance has trended toward additional development later this evening/overnight ahead of a weak surface boundary/low as the low level jet increases and stronger warm advection shifts east from southern WI into northern IL. Expect that a line/cluster of storms will develop western/central IL and shift east into southern WI/northern IL, posing mainly a threat for marginal hail and possibly some strong gusts. Given latest trends, have expanded the Marginal risk on the southern end across southern IA/northern IL. Thunderstorms continue to shift westward off of higher terrain across central AZ. Strong gusts will continue to be possible with this activity for several more hours this evening. The severe threat should diminish after 06z as convection approaches the Lower CO Valley. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible the remainder of the evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...01z Update... The Marginal risk area has been removed from the Appalachians as convection has diminished with loss of daytime heating. A few storms will linger another 1-2 hours, but severe threat is expected to be low the remainder of the evening. The Marginal risk area across the Upper Midwest has been modified based on latest hi-res guidance trends and surface observations. The biggest change was to trim some of the area across central MN into northern WI. Thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon have largely weakened, and additional convection forming that far north overnight does not appear likely. Latest hi-res guidance has trended toward additional development later this evening/overnight ahead of a weak surface boundary/low as the low level jet increases and stronger warm advection shifts east from southern WI into northern IL. Expect that a line/cluster of storms will develop western/central IL and shift east into southern WI/northern IL, posing mainly a threat for marginal hail and possibly some strong gusts. Given latest trends, have expanded the Marginal risk on the southern end across southern IA/northern IL. Thunderstorms continue to shift westward off of higher terrain across central AZ. Strong gusts will continue to be possible with this activity for several more hours this evening. The severe threat should diminish after 06z as convection approaches the Lower CO Valley. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible the remainder of the evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...01z Update... The Marginal risk area has been removed from the Appalachians as convection has diminished with loss of daytime heating. A few storms will linger another 1-2 hours, but severe threat is expected to be low the remainder of the evening. The Marginal risk area across the Upper Midwest has been modified based on latest hi-res guidance trends and surface observations. The biggest change was to trim some of the area across central MN into northern WI. Thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon have largely weakened, and additional convection forming that far north overnight does not appear likely. Latest hi-res guidance has trended toward additional development later this evening/overnight ahead of a weak surface boundary/low as the low level jet increases and stronger warm advection shifts east from southern WI into northern IL. Expect that a line/cluster of storms will develop western/central IL and shift east into southern WI/northern IL, posing mainly a threat for marginal hail and possibly some strong gusts. Given latest trends, have expanded the Marginal risk on the southern end across southern IA/northern IL. Thunderstorms continue to shift westward off of higher terrain across central AZ. Strong gusts will continue to be possible with this activity for several more hours this evening. The severe threat should diminish after 06z as convection approaches the Lower CO Valley. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2019 Read more

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE PHX TO 50 E PHX TO 45 NNW TUS. ..SPC..09/15/19 ATTN...WFO...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC013-021-150140- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARICOPA PINAL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Issued at 530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 150036 CCA TCUEP3 Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Corrected location coordinates ...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which will be issued before 800 PM PDT. SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -120.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE PHX TO 65 E PHX TO 40 NNE TUS. ..SPC..09/14/19 ATTN...WFO...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-013-021-150040- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA MARICOPA PINAL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1977 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS...SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1977 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Areas affected...Western into north-central KS...Southeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142315Z - 150115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...While extent of storm development remains uncertain, isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this evening with a conditional risk of locally severe wind gusts and hail. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Cumulus has been gradually increasing along a weak surface boundary from western KS northeastward into south-central NE. Strong heating and sufficient low-level moisture have allowed MLCAPE values to rise into the 2000-3500 J/kg range across this region, per recent mesoanalyses. This area is on the southern fringe of stronger midlevel flow, with effective shear ranging from 20-25 kt across western KS to around 30 kt into southeast NE. This environment would conditionally support organized multicells, or even potentially a supercell or two where shear is slightly stronger into north-central KS/southeast NE. Large-scale ascent is weak at best across this area, and the extent of storm development (if any) remains uncertain at this time. If deep convection can be sustained, locally severe wind gusts and some hail will be possible. Given uncertainty regarding storm coverage, and the likelihood that any severe threat would only last until around 01-02Z before MLCINH increases, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38769988 39869886 40769804 41039762 41239685 41319641 40899609 40019648 39319726 38779814 38549869 38289969 38220023 38320043 38769988 Read more

MD 1978 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... FOR AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 1978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Areas affected...AZ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653... Valid 142353Z - 150200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds remain possible with thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are slowly organizing along the higher terrain of Gila/Yavapai Counties. This activity is beginning to surge a bit as it propagates southwest at roughly 20kt toward lower desert regions. While deep-layer shear does not favor fast-moving storms, low sub-cloud layer RH will prove conducive for gusty downdrafts where temp/dew point spreads are on the order of 45-50F. Unless/until a more substantial cold pool can evolve, severe wind gusts should remain more isolated in nature. Deep convection is expected to gradually spread across the remainder of ww653 over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 32431238 33941311 34561222 33841136 32641121 32431238 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Kiko, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward
or west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Although the shower activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 14 22:19:08 UTC 2019.

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0653 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 653 SEVERE TSTM AZ 142145Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Arizona * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase over the mountains, with some of the storms and their related outflows expected to move onto the desert floor this evening. Severe-caliber winds/blowing dust will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Gila Bend AZ to 90 miles east of Phoenix AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 07015. ...Guyer Read more