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Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will linger across northern Ohio into extreme northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Isolated damaging winds may be noted for the next few hours. ...OH Valley... Large-scale height falls are spreading east across ON/QC ahead of a pronounced mid-level short-wave trough. Southern influence of this trough is affecting the international border region from northern OH into upstate NY. Convection that developed ahead of the front over southeastern lower MI/western OH has shifted downstream, utilizing an air mass that is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. 00z sounding from ILN supports this along with deep-layer shear of roughly 30kt. Ongoing activity will soon shift east of instability corridor, and loss of daytime heating should also serve to negatively influence convective updrafts. For these reasons will only maintain 5% severe probs for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2019 Read more

WW 0652 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MIE TO 15 NNE TOL TO 10 SSE DTW TO 60 ESE MTC. ..DEAN..09/13/19 ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-043-063-077-095-123-143-147-173-175-132340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE HANCOCK HURON LUCAS OTTAWA SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-132340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER Read more

WW 652 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LH 131845Z - 140100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Southeast Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing from northeast Indiana to southeast Lower Michigan should spread east-northeast through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Scattered damaging winds are the main threat, but a tornado or two will also be possible across southeast Lower Michigan through late afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southwest of Findlay OH to 85 miles north northeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Grams Read more

MD 1974 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... FOR NORTHERN OH...EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 1974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Areas affected...Northern OH...Extreme east-central IN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652... Valid 132316Z - 140045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail will remain possible this evening, with a gradual weakening trend expected with time. DISCUSSION...A general weakening trend has been noticed recently the longer-lived convective cluster across north-central OH, with some redevelopment noted further west from east-central IN into northwest OH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt may support some organization with the strongest cells, with some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or marginally severe hail. However, as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes lifts away from the region and MLCINH increases this evening, a gradual decrease in the severe thunderstorm threat is expected with time, and downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Dean/Goss.. 09/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40158536 40768468 41078436 41418406 42038336 42018274 41898183 41478160 40918214 40608257 40408315 40258383 40068453 40158536 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Little to no development of
this system is anticipated while it moves slowly westward for the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development
of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward well off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America in a day or two. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

WW 0652 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MIE TO 15 NNE TOL TO 10 SSE DTW TO 60 ESE MTC. ..DEAN..09/13/19 ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-043-063-077-095-123-143-147-173-175-132340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE HANCOCK HURON LUCAS OTTAWA SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-132340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER Read more

WW 652 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LH 131845Z - 140100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Southeast Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing from northeast Indiana to southeast Lower Michigan should spread east-northeast through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Scattered damaging winds are the main threat, but a tornado or two will also be possible across southeast Lower Michigan through late afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southwest of Findlay OH to 85 miles north northeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Grams Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 13 22:56:05 UTC 2019.

Drought conditions in central Alabama have resulted in more small fires as smokers carelessly discard cigarette butts, unaware of the rising fire danger. With October typically being the state’s driest month, drought could easily expand. WBRC-TV Fox 6 Birmingham (Ala.), Sept. 6, 2019

Exceedingly dry conditions prompted a county judge to implement a burn ban for Union County on Sept. 9. The county was in moderate drought. El Dorado News-Times (Ark.), Sept. 11, 2019

WW 0652 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MIE TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 N ARB TO 45 E OSC. ..DEAN..09/13/19 ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC075-132240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JAY MIC063-087-091-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-132240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WASHTENAW WAYNE OHC003-033-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-137-143-147-161-173-175- 132240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

The Hot Springs Fire Department issued a citywide burn ban on Sept. 12 because rainfall has been below normal. The drought index for District 5 of the Arkansas Forestry Commission was 600 on Sept. 12, according to the AFC. HOT SPRINGSSR (Ark.), Sept. 13, 2019

As the Keetch-Byram Drought Index rose to 670, Montgomery County commissioners approved a burn ban for the county. Houston Chronicle (Texas), Sept. 10, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 20:44:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 21:31:22 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity. After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily weaken late in the forecast period. Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. There was a notable shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone will move with a little slower forward motion than previously indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 19(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 14(46) 2(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 115.2W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be near hurricane strength late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -115.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.