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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may impact parts of the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Saturday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms associated with a tropical system may also pose a risk for strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across parts of the east central Florida peninsula. Strong wind gusts are also possible across central and southern Arizona Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Moderate, predominantly zonal upper flow is expected across the northern tier of CONUS on Saturday with flattened ridging remaining in place over the southern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the stronger westerly flow will move from its early period position over the northern Plains eastward through the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. At the same time, a weak surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to move from central SD northeastward into southern MN. A cold front attendant to this surface low will move across the northern Plains for much of the day Saturday. However, the southern portion of this front is expected to slow down and eventually stall late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Farther south, a tropical cyclone will likely be centered over the northern Bahamas early Saturday morning. This storm is expected to move gradually northwestward throughout the period. ...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley... Strong moisture advection is anticipated across the central and southern Plains on Saturday, bringing upper 60s dewpoints in the Mid MO and Upper MS Valleys by late Saturday afternoon. As a result, a moist and moderately buoyant warm sector beneath moderate vertical shear. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely remain north of the region and convergence along the front will be limited by pre-frontal veering of the surface winds. These factors are expected to keep the overall storm coverage isolated. Even so, the few storms that do develop will likely be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, any robust storms near the warm front may also pose a risk for a tornado or two. Anticipated storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities but upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if higher storm coverage appears more likely. ...Eastern FL Peninsula - Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine... Recent intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center suggests the cyclone will have reached Tropical Storm intensity by the beginning of the Day 2 period (i.e. 12Z Saturday). Latest forecast track keeps the center about 60-70 mi off the east-central FL coast, which keeps the strongest winds (and highest wind/tornado risk) offshore. Best chance for any damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado is currently along the immediate coastal areas of the eastern FL Peninsula during the afternoon when thunderstorms are most likely. However, any westward shift in the storm's path could result in damaging wind gusts/tornado risk farther inland. ...Central/Southern AZ... Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across central and southern AZ as low-level moisture surges northward into the region and a weak vorticity maximum approaches from northern Mexico. Expectation is for thunderstorms to develop during the early afternoon across the higher terrain, with some potential propagation into the lower deserts thereafter. Mid-level flow will be very weak but the deeply mixed boundary layer is still expected to support a few strong wind gusts and low severe probabilities have been introduced as a result. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may impact parts of the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Saturday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms associated with a tropical system may also pose a risk for strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across parts of the east central Florida peninsula. Strong wind gusts are also possible across central and southern Arizona Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Moderate, predominantly zonal upper flow is expected across the northern tier of CONUS on Saturday with flattened ridging remaining in place over the southern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the stronger westerly flow will move from its early period position over the northern Plains eastward through the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. At the same time, a weak surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to move from central SD northeastward into southern MN. A cold front attendant to this surface low will move across the northern Plains for much of the day Saturday. However, the southern portion of this front is expected to slow down and eventually stall late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Farther south, a tropical cyclone will likely be centered over the northern Bahamas early Saturday morning. This storm is expected to move gradually northwestward throughout the period. ...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley... Strong moisture advection is anticipated across the central and southern Plains on Saturday, bringing upper 60s dewpoints in the Mid MO and Upper MS Valleys by late Saturday afternoon. As a result, a moist and moderately buoyant warm sector beneath moderate vertical shear. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely remain north of the region and convergence along the front will be limited by pre-frontal veering of the surface winds. These factors are expected to keep the overall storm coverage isolated. Even so, the few storms that do develop will likely be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, any robust storms near the warm front may also pose a risk for a tornado or two. Anticipated storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities but upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if higher storm coverage appears more likely. ...Eastern FL Peninsula - Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine... Recent intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center suggests the cyclone will have reached Tropical Storm intensity by the beginning of the Day 2 period (i.e. 12Z Saturday). Latest forecast track keeps the center about 60-70 mi off the east-central FL coast, which keeps the strongest winds (and highest wind/tornado risk) offshore. Best chance for any damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado is currently along the immediate coastal areas of the eastern FL Peninsula during the afternoon when thunderstorms are most likely. However, any westward shift in the storm's path could result in damaging wind gusts/tornado risk farther inland. ...Central/Southern AZ... Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across central and southern AZ as low-level moisture surges northward into the region and a weak vorticity maximum approaches from northern Mexico. Expectation is for thunderstorms to develop during the early afternoon across the higher terrain, with some potential propagation into the lower deserts thereafter. Mid-level flow will be very weak but the deeply mixed boundary layer is still expected to support a few strong wind gusts and low severe probabilities have been introduced as a result. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 13 17:34:02 UTC 2019.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. ..Grams/Dial.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. ..Grams/Dial.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. ..Grams/Dial.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. ..Grams/Dial.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The elevated area was expanded farther west in the Santa Ynez Mountains and closer to the coast near Santa Barbara/vicinity with dry/breezy conditions continuing this afternoon/evening and possibly overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough over the upper Midwest will progress eastward through the period, while a lower-amplitude trough will move quickly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Rockies is expected to gradually weaken, while a weak surface low moves eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies. ...Southern California... Elevated fire weather conditions may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern CA, within a weak offshore flow regime. Some weakening of the offshore gradient is expected later today, resulting in a general decrease in wind speeds, though very warm and dry conditions will persist, with poor overnight RH recovery into Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The elevated area was expanded farther west in the Santa Ynez Mountains and closer to the coast near Santa Barbara/vicinity with dry/breezy conditions continuing this afternoon/evening and possibly overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough over the upper Midwest will progress eastward through the period, while a lower-amplitude trough will move quickly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Rockies is expected to gradually weaken, while a weak surface low moves eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies. ...Southern California... Elevated fire weather conditions may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern CA, within a weak offshore flow regime. Some weakening of the offshore gradient is expected later today, resulting in a general decrease in wind speeds, though very warm and dry conditions will persist, with poor overnight RH recovery into Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The elevated area was expanded farther west in the Santa Ynez Mountains and closer to the coast near Santa Barbara/vicinity with dry/breezy conditions continuing this afternoon/evening and possibly overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough over the upper Midwest will progress eastward through the period, while a lower-amplitude trough will move quickly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Rockies is expected to gradually weaken, while a weak surface low moves eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies. ...Southern California... Elevated fire weather conditions may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern CA, within a weak offshore flow regime. Some weakening of the offshore gradient is expected later today, resulting in a general decrease in wind speeds, though very warm and dry conditions will persist, with poor overnight RH recovery into Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The elevated area was expanded farther west in the Santa Ynez Mountains and closer to the coast near Santa Barbara/vicinity with dry/breezy conditions continuing this afternoon/evening and possibly overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough over the upper Midwest will progress eastward through the period, while a lower-amplitude trough will move quickly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Rockies is expected to gradually weaken, while a weak surface low moves eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies. ...Southern California... Elevated fire weather conditions may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern CA, within a weak offshore flow regime. Some weakening of the offshore gradient is expected later today, resulting in a general decrease in wind speeds, though very warm and dry conditions will persist, with poor overnight RH recovery into Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Containment of the 5,737 acre Lone Fire has reached 95-percent. All lines are holding and no further growth of the incident is expected. Smoldering fuels within the perimeter are expected to produce smoke from the interior of the fire for a few more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 14:58:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 15:31:21 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized. There was only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and objective estimates. Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to the system's continued convective struggles. Going forward, a low shear and warm water environment with limited environmental instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the model consensus. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, some bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131457 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 15 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 25(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 18(44) 2(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BANN/JACKSON/OTTO/BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131457 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 114.4W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 114.4 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to approach hurricane strength later this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake

...KIKO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 16.9, -114.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131456 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BANN/JACKSON/OTTO/BLAKE

Due to inaccessible terrain and rugged, steep conditions, the Missoula Ranger District of the Lolo National Forest is managing the lightning-caused Miller Gulch Fire with a confine and contain strategy, utilizing point-source protection, as needed around the valley bottom and Rock Creek.The Miller Gulch Fire is located approximately 20 miles south of I-90 off of Rock Creek Road and a mile east and upslope of Bitterroot Flat Campground, and is burning on the upper third portion of a steep ridgeline.After closely evaluating terrain conditions, expected weather patterns, and considering the relatively low probability for success to fully extinguish this fire, the decision was made to take a confine and contain suppression strategy, with point protection. By using natural features, existing prescribed fire project areas, and aviation resources, this strategy will limit exposure and therefore risk to firefighters due to the hazards associated with a backcountry fire environment.Difficult...

The Bodine 1 Fire in Mitchell county was ignited from hunters in the area burning trash. Mitchell County, along with 161 other Texas counties, are currently under burn bans. The fire was approximately 28 miles SW of Colorado City, burning on a private landowners ranch. The fuel type is Mesquite-Juniper mosaic mixed w/ short grass w/ rolling topography. Due to lack of significant rainfall this summer, critically dry vegetation provided active fire behavior. This fire did not threaten any structures and firefighters continued to patrol the perimeter of the fire on Monday, 9/9. Colorado City VFD's responded first on scene, and dispatched Texas A&M Forest Service that responded with dozers and engine crews from Merkel Task Force. Additional resources included air attack, a heavy tanker, a helicopter, and a local motor grader. On Monday crews continued patrolling the scene and mopped up hot spots as necessary. Increased moisture and clouds favored cooler temperatures Monday. Relative...