Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Snow Peak Resource Benefit Fire – Coeur d’Alene River Ranger District Coeur d’Alene, Idaho (August 23, 2019) – The Snow Peak Fire was first detected on August 15, is currently estimated at 110 acres, and was determined to be caused by lightning from a previous storm. Fire managers considered the ignition source, location, management area, fuels and forest stand type, and seasonal fire danger into the decision to manage this fire for resource benefits. This decision was based on management direction set forth in the Forest Plan, which allows wildfire to fulfill its ecological role in diversifying forest structure and wildlife habitat. The Snow Peak Fire is in a roadless, backcountry management area, where prescribed and naturally ignited fire is the primary management tool for increasing stand diversity and big game forage, while decreasing hazardous fuels and diseased stands. This fire will be monitored and managed in a manner that adapts to changing conditions. Management...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...20Z Update... ...MI/OH/IN... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 was recently issued across far northeast IN, northwest OH, and southeast Lower MI to cover the risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail with the thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough. A tornado or two is also possible. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible across southeast IN and southwest OH but weaker deep-layer vertical shear should keep any severe risk more isolated. ...Western NC...Western/Central SC... Thunderstorm cluster along the central SC/NC border has recently shown southwestward forward-propagation into central SC. The downstream air mass is warm and moist and the discrete propagation of this thunderstorm cluster is anticipated. Vertical shear is weak, leading to predominantly disorganized storms. Even so, strong updrafts support water loading and the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...North-Central MT... Isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated later this afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through southern Alberta/far northwest MT continues eastward. Low-level moisture will be limited but modest buoyancy will still develop amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing mid-level moisture. A strong wind gust or two is possible, although overall severe coverage is expected to be too low to introduce any risk areas. ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...20Z Update... ...MI/OH/IN... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 was recently issued across far northeast IN, northwest OH, and southeast Lower MI to cover the risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail with the thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough. A tornado or two is also possible. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible across southeast IN and southwest OH but weaker deep-layer vertical shear should keep any severe risk more isolated. ...Western NC...Western/Central SC... Thunderstorm cluster along the central SC/NC border has recently shown southwestward forward-propagation into central SC. The downstream air mass is warm and moist and the discrete propagation of this thunderstorm cluster is anticipated. Vertical shear is weak, leading to predominantly disorganized storms. Even so, strong updrafts support water loading and the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...North-Central MT... Isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated later this afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through southern Alberta/far northwest MT continues eastward. Low-level moisture will be limited but modest buoyancy will still develop amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing mid-level moisture. A strong wind gust or two is possible, although overall severe coverage is expected to be too low to introduce any risk areas. ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...20Z Update... ...MI/OH/IN... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 was recently issued across far northeast IN, northwest OH, and southeast Lower MI to cover the risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail with the thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough. A tornado or two is also possible. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible across southeast IN and southwest OH but weaker deep-layer vertical shear should keep any severe risk more isolated. ...Western NC...Western/Central SC... Thunderstorm cluster along the central SC/NC border has recently shown southwestward forward-propagation into central SC. The downstream air mass is warm and moist and the discrete propagation of this thunderstorm cluster is anticipated. Vertical shear is weak, leading to predominantly disorganized storms. Even so, strong updrafts support water loading and the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...North-Central MT... Isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated later this afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through southern Alberta/far northwest MT continues eastward. Low-level moisture will be limited but modest buoyancy will still develop amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing mid-level moisture. A strong wind gust or two is possible, although overall severe coverage is expected to be too low to introduce any risk areas. ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...20Z Update... ...MI/OH/IN... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 was recently issued across far northeast IN, northwest OH, and southeast Lower MI to cover the risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail with the thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough. A tornado or two is also possible. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible across southeast IN and southwest OH but weaker deep-layer vertical shear should keep any severe risk more isolated. ...Western NC...Western/Central SC... Thunderstorm cluster along the central SC/NC border has recently shown southwestward forward-propagation into central SC. The downstream air mass is warm and moist and the discrete propagation of this thunderstorm cluster is anticipated. Vertical shear is weak, leading to predominantly disorganized storms. Even so, strong updrafts support water loading and the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...North-Central MT... Isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated later this afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through southern Alberta/far northwest MT continues eastward. Low-level moisture will be limited but modest buoyancy will still develop amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing mid-level moisture. A strong wind gust or two is possible, although overall severe coverage is expected to be too low to introduce any risk areas. ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio through about 9 PM EDT. ...20Z Update... ...MI/OH/IN... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 was recently issued across far northeast IN, northwest OH, and southeast Lower MI to cover the risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail with the thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough. A tornado or two is also possible. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible across southeast IN and southwest OH but weaker deep-layer vertical shear should keep any severe risk more isolated. ...Western NC...Western/Central SC... Thunderstorm cluster along the central SC/NC border has recently shown southwestward forward-propagation into central SC. The downstream air mass is warm and moist and the discrete propagation of this thunderstorm cluster is anticipated. Vertical shear is weak, leading to predominantly disorganized storms. Even so, strong updrafts support water loading and the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...North-Central MT... Isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated later this afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through southern Alberta/far northwest MT continues eastward. Low-level moisture will be limited but modest buoyancy will still develop amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing mid-level moisture. A strong wind gust or two is possible, although overall severe coverage is expected to be too low to introduce any risk areas. ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...MI/OH/IN... An upper low over northwest ON will evolve into an open wave while moving northeastward towards James Bay, as embedded speed maxima rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest Lower MI to the Wabash Valley will progress east across the rest of IN/Lower MI. Thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered destabilization ahead of the front across most of Lower MI, except across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation occurring from there southward across much of OH and eastern IN. Surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will reach the low 90s across most of OH where surface dew points should mix down into the low 60s. A confined corridor of upper 60s dew points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing is not quite as pronounced across southeast Lower MI. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the front, and then continue eastward across Lake Erie and parts of northern OH into this evening. Despite being on the southeast periphery of the Upper Great Lakes mid-level jet, largely unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to between 25-40 kts. The greatest potential for supercells will exist across southeast Lower MI where the low-level hodograph should be adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple tornadoes before surface winds veer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit hail magnitudes. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly after dusk. ...Western NC into SC... Strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for organized clustering. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z An elevated area was added for portions of the northwest Great Basin and vicinity as surface winds increase and overlap a dry air mass ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Elevated conditions may continue overnight as winds will likely remain breezy, especially at mid/higher elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest by Saturday evening, with largely zonal flow expected further east across the interior Northwest into the northern Plains. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain in place across south-central Canada, with a surface trough extending into portions of the northern Plains. ...Southeast WY... Low-level westerly flow will become established across southern WY by Saturday afternoon, to the west of the surface trough over the northern Plains. While there remains some variability among model guidance regarding the strength of low-level flow, sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will likely result in elevated to locally critical conditions across portions of southeast WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z An elevated area was added for portions of the northwest Great Basin and vicinity as surface winds increase and overlap a dry air mass ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Elevated conditions may continue overnight as winds will likely remain breezy, especially at mid/higher elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest by Saturday evening, with largely zonal flow expected further east across the interior Northwest into the northern Plains. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain in place across south-central Canada, with a surface trough extending into portions of the northern Plains. ...Southeast WY... Low-level westerly flow will become established across southern WY by Saturday afternoon, to the west of the surface trough over the northern Plains. While there remains some variability among model guidance regarding the strength of low-level flow, sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will likely result in elevated to locally critical conditions across portions of southeast WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z An elevated area was added for portions of the northwest Great Basin and vicinity as surface winds increase and overlap a dry air mass ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Elevated conditions may continue overnight as winds will likely remain breezy, especially at mid/higher elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest by Saturday evening, with largely zonal flow expected further east across the interior Northwest into the northern Plains. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain in place across south-central Canada, with a surface trough extending into portions of the northern Plains. ...Southeast WY... Low-level westerly flow will become established across southern WY by Saturday afternoon, to the west of the surface trough over the northern Plains. While there remains some variability among model guidance regarding the strength of low-level flow, sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will likely result in elevated to locally critical conditions across portions of southeast WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z An elevated area was added for portions of the northwest Great Basin and vicinity as surface winds increase and overlap a dry air mass ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Elevated conditions may continue overnight as winds will likely remain breezy, especially at mid/higher elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest by Saturday evening, with largely zonal flow expected further east across the interior Northwest into the northern Plains. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain in place across south-central Canada, with a surface trough extending into portions of the northern Plains. ...Southeast WY... Low-level westerly flow will become established across southern WY by Saturday afternoon, to the west of the surface trough over the northern Plains. While there remains some variability among model guidance regarding the strength of low-level flow, sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will likely result in elevated to locally critical conditions across portions of southeast WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z An elevated area was added for portions of the northwest Great Basin and vicinity as surface winds increase and overlap a dry air mass ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Elevated conditions may continue overnight as winds will likely remain breezy, especially at mid/higher elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/13/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest by Saturday evening, with largely zonal flow expected further east across the interior Northwest into the northern Plains. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain in place across south-central Canada, with a surface trough extending into portions of the northern Plains. ...Southeast WY... Low-level westerly flow will become established across southern WY by Saturday afternoon, to the west of the surface trough over the northern Plains. While there remains some variability among model guidance regarding the strength of low-level flow, sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will likely result in elevated to locally critical conditions across portions of southeast WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0652 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 652 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..09/13/19 ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-033-069-075-179-132040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DE KALB HUNTINGTON JAY WELLS MIC049-059-063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-157-161-163- 132040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENESEE HILLSDALE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE OHC003-033-039-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-125-137-143-147-161- 171-173-175-132040- Read more

WW 0652 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0652 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Areas affected...northeast Indiana...southeast lower Michigan through northern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131821Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity from northeast IN southeast lower MI through northwest OH this afternoon posing a threat for mainly damaging wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Trends are being monitored for a WW. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data show a few thunderstorms have developed within a zone of weak pre-frontal convergence across extreme northeast IN through southeast lower MI. Downstream from this activity, diabatic warming of the moist surface layer with temperatures rising through the 80s has boosted MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg and further destabilization is likely this afternoon. Storms should continue developing within this zone of weak pre-frontal convergence from northeast IN through southeast lower MI and spread east through northwest OH. While stronger winds aloft accompanying a progressive shortwave trough will remain north and west of the zone of thunderstorm development, 0-6 km shear from 30-40 kt will be sufficient for organized storms including a few supercells and bowing segments. Tendency has been for low-level winds to veer in warm sector which will should limit size of low-level hodographs with 0-1 km storm relative helicity generally less than 150 m2/s2. This suggests the primary threat should be locally strong to damaging gusts, through a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Dial/Grams.. 09/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41088528 42178407 43408328 43628276 42708230 41448218 40738350 40638497 41088528 Read more

MD 1972 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1972 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern North Carolina into northern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131805Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An increase in convection is expected across the area, with a couple of damaging wind gusts possible. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...An increase in convective development and associated lightning trends have been noted over the past couple of hours in close proximity to the NC/SC border. Surface temperatures exceeding 90F have resulted in vigorous diurnal mixing of the boundary layer, with convective temperatures breached in multiple locales. With continued heating, additional storm development is likely over the next few hours. Deep-tropospheric flow and subsequent shear is very weak, with marginal storm organization expected. Nonetheless, up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is in place across much of the region. As such, a few of the strongest storms may produce water-loaded downdrafts, with strong gusty winds likely. A couple of the strongest gusts may approach severe limits, especially with the most intense cells, and with storm clusters. Still, the severe wind gust threat is expected to be isolated in nature, precluding a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34827967 33888065 34038198 34558269 35348302 35758265 36148195 35648075 34827967 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Only some slight development is
expected over the next couple of days before environmental
conditions become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west of the wave axis. Some slow
development is possible into next week while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may impact parts of the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Saturday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms associated with a tropical system may also pose a risk for strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across parts of the east central Florida peninsula. Strong wind gusts are also possible across central and southern Arizona Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Moderate, predominantly zonal upper flow is expected across the northern tier of CONUS on Saturday with flattened ridging remaining in place over the southern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the stronger westerly flow will move from its early period position over the northern Plains eastward through the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. At the same time, a weak surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to move from central SD northeastward into southern MN. A cold front attendant to this surface low will move across the northern Plains for much of the day Saturday. However, the southern portion of this front is expected to slow down and eventually stall late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Farther south, a tropical cyclone will likely be centered over the northern Bahamas early Saturday morning. This storm is expected to move gradually northwestward throughout the period. ...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley... Strong moisture advection is anticipated across the central and southern Plains on Saturday, bringing upper 60s dewpoints in the Mid MO and Upper MS Valleys by late Saturday afternoon. As a result, a moist and moderately buoyant warm sector beneath moderate vertical shear. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely remain north of the region and convergence along the front will be limited by pre-frontal veering of the surface winds. These factors are expected to keep the overall storm coverage isolated. Even so, the few storms that do develop will likely be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, any robust storms near the warm front may also pose a risk for a tornado or two. Anticipated storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities but upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if higher storm coverage appears more likely. ...Eastern FL Peninsula - Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine... Recent intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center suggests the cyclone will have reached Tropical Storm intensity by the beginning of the Day 2 period (i.e. 12Z Saturday). Latest forecast track keeps the center about 60-70 mi off the east-central FL coast, which keeps the strongest winds (and highest wind/tornado risk) offshore. Best chance for any damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado is currently along the immediate coastal areas of the eastern FL Peninsula during the afternoon when thunderstorms are most likely. However, any westward shift in the storm's path could result in damaging wind gusts/tornado risk farther inland. ...Central/Southern AZ... Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across central and southern AZ as low-level moisture surges northward into the region and a weak vorticity maximum approaches from northern Mexico. Expectation is for thunderstorms to develop during the early afternoon across the higher terrain, with some potential propagation into the lower deserts thereafter. Mid-level flow will be very weak but the deeply mixed boundary layer is still expected to support a few strong wind gusts and low severe probabilities have been introduced as a result. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may impact parts of the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Saturday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms associated with a tropical system may also pose a risk for strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across parts of the east central Florida peninsula. Strong wind gusts are also possible across central and southern Arizona Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Moderate, predominantly zonal upper flow is expected across the northern tier of CONUS on Saturday with flattened ridging remaining in place over the southern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the stronger westerly flow will move from its early period position over the northern Plains eastward through the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. At the same time, a weak surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to move from central SD northeastward into southern MN. A cold front attendant to this surface low will move across the northern Plains for much of the day Saturday. However, the southern portion of this front is expected to slow down and eventually stall late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Farther south, a tropical cyclone will likely be centered over the northern Bahamas early Saturday morning. This storm is expected to move gradually northwestward throughout the period. ...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley... Strong moisture advection is anticipated across the central and southern Plains on Saturday, bringing upper 60s dewpoints in the Mid MO and Upper MS Valleys by late Saturday afternoon. As a result, a moist and moderately buoyant warm sector beneath moderate vertical shear. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely remain north of the region and convergence along the front will be limited by pre-frontal veering of the surface winds. These factors are expected to keep the overall storm coverage isolated. Even so, the few storms that do develop will likely be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, any robust storms near the warm front may also pose a risk for a tornado or two. Anticipated storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities but upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if higher storm coverage appears more likely. ...Eastern FL Peninsula - Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine... Recent intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center suggests the cyclone will have reached Tropical Storm intensity by the beginning of the Day 2 period (i.e. 12Z Saturday). Latest forecast track keeps the center about 60-70 mi off the east-central FL coast, which keeps the strongest winds (and highest wind/tornado risk) offshore. Best chance for any damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado is currently along the immediate coastal areas of the eastern FL Peninsula during the afternoon when thunderstorms are most likely. However, any westward shift in the storm's path could result in damaging wind gusts/tornado risk farther inland. ...Central/Southern AZ... Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across central and southern AZ as low-level moisture surges northward into the region and a weak vorticity maximum approaches from northern Mexico. Expectation is for thunderstorms to develop during the early afternoon across the higher terrain, with some potential propagation into the lower deserts thereafter. Mid-level flow will be very weak but the deeply mixed boundary layer is still expected to support a few strong wind gusts and low severe probabilities have been introduced as a result. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may impact parts of the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Saturday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms associated with a tropical system may also pose a risk for strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across parts of the east central Florida peninsula. Strong wind gusts are also possible across central and southern Arizona Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Moderate, predominantly zonal upper flow is expected across the northern tier of CONUS on Saturday with flattened ridging remaining in place over the southern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the stronger westerly flow will move from its early period position over the northern Plains eastward through the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. At the same time, a weak surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to move from central SD northeastward into southern MN. A cold front attendant to this surface low will move across the northern Plains for much of the day Saturday. However, the southern portion of this front is expected to slow down and eventually stall late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Farther south, a tropical cyclone will likely be centered over the northern Bahamas early Saturday morning. This storm is expected to move gradually northwestward throughout the period. ...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley... Strong moisture advection is anticipated across the central and southern Plains on Saturday, bringing upper 60s dewpoints in the Mid MO and Upper MS Valleys by late Saturday afternoon. As a result, a moist and moderately buoyant warm sector beneath moderate vertical shear. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely remain north of the region and convergence along the front will be limited by pre-frontal veering of the surface winds. These factors are expected to keep the overall storm coverage isolated. Even so, the few storms that do develop will likely be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, any robust storms near the warm front may also pose a risk for a tornado or two. Anticipated storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities but upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if higher storm coverage appears more likely. ...Eastern FL Peninsula - Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine... Recent intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center suggests the cyclone will have reached Tropical Storm intensity by the beginning of the Day 2 period (i.e. 12Z Saturday). Latest forecast track keeps the center about 60-70 mi off the east-central FL coast, which keeps the strongest winds (and highest wind/tornado risk) offshore. Best chance for any damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado is currently along the immediate coastal areas of the eastern FL Peninsula during the afternoon when thunderstorms are most likely. However, any westward shift in the storm's path could result in damaging wind gusts/tornado risk farther inland. ...Central/Southern AZ... Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across central and southern AZ as low-level moisture surges northward into the region and a weak vorticity maximum approaches from northern Mexico. Expectation is for thunderstorms to develop during the early afternoon across the higher terrain, with some potential propagation into the lower deserts thereafter. Mid-level flow will be very weak but the deeply mixed boundary layer is still expected to support a few strong wind gusts and low severe probabilities have been introduced as a result. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 09/13/2019 Read more