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A Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team has been established to begin burned area surveys of the Museum Fire. BAER team assessments are rapid evaluations of post-fire conditions of the burned landscape to determine the level of risk from potential flooding and debris flow to values on National Forest System (NFS) lands such as human life, safety, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. If unacceptable risks are found the team recommends appropriate and effective emergency stabilization measures to reduce the risks to National Forest lands and values. BAER teams conduct field surveys and use science-based models to rapidly evaluate and assess the burned area. The BAER program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on NFS lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for stabilization work that...

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 14 20:53:01 UTC 2019.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 20:37:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 21:31:34 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142036 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 27(45) 3(48) X(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the confidence in the track forecast remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 119.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west- northwestward course at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the day or so, followed by little change in strength Sunday night and Monday. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -119.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142035 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

MD 1976 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 1976 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Areas affected...Central/Southern AZ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142021Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across southern/central AZ over the next several hours. Strong wind gusts are possible and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to advect northward/northeastward into southern/central AZ as an MCV currently near the far southeast NM/Mexico border slowly moves north. Dewpoints across much of the region have remained steady or slightly increased, evidence of low-level moisture advection amidst strong daytime heating across central AZ. At least modest convective inhibition remains in place across much of the region, but continued heating and moisture advection is expected erode this inhibition while also increasing buoyancy. As a result of the decreasing convective inhibition, increasing buoyancy, and lift resulting from the approaching MCV (as well as orographic effects), thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase over the next hour or two. In addition to this increasing thunderstorm coverage, enhanced easterly flow around the eastern/northeastern periphery of the MCV is expected to spread into more of central AZ. Recent EMX VAD has sampled this increased easterly flow well. Consequently, storms will likely move off the higher terrain and into the Lower Desert with an attendant risk for strong wind gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31641036 31621124 31951237 32501296 33641300 34241279 34561237 34601171 34361109 33951077 33401040 32701012 32021006 31641036 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...Discussion... Only minor adjustments have been made to the previous forecast. ..Dial.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Southern/central AZ... An MCV over western Chihuahua will drift north-northwestward across southeast AZ through tonight. 50s surface dew points are common across southern AZ amid easterly flow north of this MCV. In conjunction with ample heating northwest of the thicker cloud cover near the MCV, a modestly buoyant air mass with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg should develop by peak heating. 15-25 kt east-northeast 700-500 mb winds around the north side of the MCV will be favorable for cells and semi-organized clusters to spread off the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts with a threat for severe gusts. Whether more organized clustering can evolve is uncertain compared to the significant severe wind event two weeks ago, but there is at least sufficient damaging wind potential to warrant a Slight Risk across parts of the Gila Valley. ...Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in western IA on the leading edge of a low-level warm theta-e advection plume. This plume and attendant zone of ascent will spread east-northeast across the Upper MS Valley into tonight in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough near the ND/MB border that will move east-southeast into Lake Superior. This elevated convection will pose a threat for isolated large hail, mainly this evening into tonight with a probable decay cycle this afternoon. A risk for locally damaging winds may also develop tonight towards the IA/IL/WI border region if a cluster can become semi-organized. In the wake of the warm advection regime, storm initiation will depend on weak low-level ascent along a surface trough that extends southwestward across NE/KS. Stronger surface heating and deeper mixing is expected along the trough in KS, with lesser mixing depths and a greater probability of maintaining MLCIN through the afternoon in the warm sector farther northeast. Thus, surface-based thunderstorm development should be sparse and may struggle to be sustained during the late afternoon/early evening. If surface-based storms can form as far northeast as southern MN this afternoon, vertical shear profiles will be sufficient for supercells. Weaker vertical shear is expected with southwestward extent into southwest KS, where high-based storms would pose a threat for isolated severe wind and hail. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of weak to modest buoyancy is expected with scattered storms along a cold front and over the higher terrain through early evening. Isolated strong downburst winds are possible on the periphery of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...Discussion... Only minor adjustments have been made to the previous forecast. ..Dial.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Southern/central AZ... An MCV over western Chihuahua will drift north-northwestward across southeast AZ through tonight. 50s surface dew points are common across southern AZ amid easterly flow north of this MCV. In conjunction with ample heating northwest of the thicker cloud cover near the MCV, a modestly buoyant air mass with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg should develop by peak heating. 15-25 kt east-northeast 700-500 mb winds around the north side of the MCV will be favorable for cells and semi-organized clusters to spread off the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts with a threat for severe gusts. Whether more organized clustering can evolve is uncertain compared to the significant severe wind event two weeks ago, but there is at least sufficient damaging wind potential to warrant a Slight Risk across parts of the Gila Valley. ...Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in western IA on the leading edge of a low-level warm theta-e advection plume. This plume and attendant zone of ascent will spread east-northeast across the Upper MS Valley into tonight in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough near the ND/MB border that will move east-southeast into Lake Superior. This elevated convection will pose a threat for isolated large hail, mainly this evening into tonight with a probable decay cycle this afternoon. A risk for locally damaging winds may also develop tonight towards the IA/IL/WI border region if a cluster can become semi-organized. In the wake of the warm advection regime, storm initiation will depend on weak low-level ascent along a surface trough that extends southwestward across NE/KS. Stronger surface heating and deeper mixing is expected along the trough in KS, with lesser mixing depths and a greater probability of maintaining MLCIN through the afternoon in the warm sector farther northeast. Thus, surface-based thunderstorm development should be sparse and may struggle to be sustained during the late afternoon/early evening. If surface-based storms can form as far northeast as southern MN this afternoon, vertical shear profiles will be sufficient for supercells. Weaker vertical shear is expected with southwestward extent into southwest KS, where high-based storms would pose a threat for isolated severe wind and hail. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of weak to modest buoyancy is expected with scattered storms along a cold front and over the higher terrain through early evening. Isolated strong downburst winds are possible on the periphery of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...Discussion... Only minor adjustments have been made to the previous forecast. ..Dial.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Southern/central AZ... An MCV over western Chihuahua will drift north-northwestward across southeast AZ through tonight. 50s surface dew points are common across southern AZ amid easterly flow north of this MCV. In conjunction with ample heating northwest of the thicker cloud cover near the MCV, a modestly buoyant air mass with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg should develop by peak heating. 15-25 kt east-northeast 700-500 mb winds around the north side of the MCV will be favorable for cells and semi-organized clusters to spread off the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts with a threat for severe gusts. Whether more organized clustering can evolve is uncertain compared to the significant severe wind event two weeks ago, but there is at least sufficient damaging wind potential to warrant a Slight Risk across parts of the Gila Valley. ...Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in western IA on the leading edge of a low-level warm theta-e advection plume. This plume and attendant zone of ascent will spread east-northeast across the Upper MS Valley into tonight in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough near the ND/MB border that will move east-southeast into Lake Superior. This elevated convection will pose a threat for isolated large hail, mainly this evening into tonight with a probable decay cycle this afternoon. A risk for locally damaging winds may also develop tonight towards the IA/IL/WI border region if a cluster can become semi-organized. In the wake of the warm advection regime, storm initiation will depend on weak low-level ascent along a surface trough that extends southwestward across NE/KS. Stronger surface heating and deeper mixing is expected along the trough in KS, with lesser mixing depths and a greater probability of maintaining MLCIN through the afternoon in the warm sector farther northeast. Thus, surface-based thunderstorm development should be sparse and may struggle to be sustained during the late afternoon/early evening. If surface-based storms can form as far northeast as southern MN this afternoon, vertical shear profiles will be sufficient for supercells. Weaker vertical shear is expected with southwestward extent into southwest KS, where high-based storms would pose a threat for isolated severe wind and hail. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of weak to modest buoyancy is expected with scattered storms along a cold front and over the higher terrain through early evening. Isolated strong downburst winds are possible on the periphery of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southern and central Arizona. Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains through tonight. ...Discussion... Only minor adjustments have been made to the previous forecast. ..Dial.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Southern/central AZ... An MCV over western Chihuahua will drift north-northwestward across southeast AZ through tonight. 50s surface dew points are common across southern AZ amid easterly flow north of this MCV. In conjunction with ample heating northwest of the thicker cloud cover near the MCV, a modestly buoyant air mass with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg should develop by peak heating. 15-25 kt east-northeast 700-500 mb winds around the north side of the MCV will be favorable for cells and semi-organized clusters to spread off the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts with a threat for severe gusts. Whether more organized clustering can evolve is uncertain compared to the significant severe wind event two weeks ago, but there is at least sufficient damaging wind potential to warrant a Slight Risk across parts of the Gila Valley. ...Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in western IA on the leading edge of a low-level warm theta-e advection plume. This plume and attendant zone of ascent will spread east-northeast across the Upper MS Valley into tonight in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough near the ND/MB border that will move east-southeast into Lake Superior. This elevated convection will pose a threat for isolated large hail, mainly this evening into tonight with a probable decay cycle this afternoon. A risk for locally damaging winds may also develop tonight towards the IA/IL/WI border region if a cluster can become semi-organized. In the wake of the warm advection regime, storm initiation will depend on weak low-level ascent along a surface trough that extends southwestward across NE/KS. Stronger surface heating and deeper mixing is expected along the trough in KS, with lesser mixing depths and a greater probability of maintaining MLCIN through the afternoon in the warm sector farther northeast. Thus, surface-based thunderstorm development should be sparse and may struggle to be sustained during the late afternoon/early evening. If surface-based storms can form as far northeast as southern MN this afternoon, vertical shear profiles will be sufficient for supercells. Weaker vertical shear is expected with southwestward extent into southwest KS, where high-based storms would pose a threat for isolated severe wind and hail. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of weak to modest buoyancy is expected with scattered storms along a cold front and over the higher terrain through early evening. Isolated strong downburst winds are possible on the periphery of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Minor modifications were made to the outlook based on latest high-resolution guidance and observations. Wind gusts of 50+ mph may occur across portions of northwest Nevada tomorrow with locally extremely critical conditions still possible. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. Within this region, critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another region of potentially critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. The onset of critical conditions in these areas may occur as early as late morning, with critical conditions potentially persisting into late Sunday night across the westernmost critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Minor modifications were made to the outlook based on latest high-resolution guidance and observations. Wind gusts of 50+ mph may occur across portions of northwest Nevada tomorrow with locally extremely critical conditions still possible. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. Within this region, critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another region of potentially critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. The onset of critical conditions in these areas may occur as early as late morning, with critical conditions potentially persisting into late Sunday night across the westernmost critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Minor modifications were made to the outlook based on latest high-resolution guidance and observations. Wind gusts of 50+ mph may occur across portions of northwest Nevada tomorrow with locally extremely critical conditions still possible. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. Within this region, critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another region of potentially critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. The onset of critical conditions in these areas may occur as early as late morning, with critical conditions potentially persisting into late Sunday night across the westernmost critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Minor modifications were made to the outlook based on latest high-resolution guidance and observations. Wind gusts of 50+ mph may occur across portions of northwest Nevada tomorrow with locally extremely critical conditions still possible. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. Within this region, critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another region of potentially critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. The onset of critical conditions in these areas may occur as early as late morning, with critical conditions potentially persisting into late Sunday night across the westernmost critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1975 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Areas affected...Parts of eastern West Virginia...far western Virginia...Maryland Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141746Z - 141945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the next few hours. Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Owing to recent diurnal heating, towering cumulus have recently become established across parts of the central Appalachians ahead of an approaching cold front. Continued heating within breaks of the low-level stratus will likely result in modest buoyancy, with MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in several locales. While more appreciable flow aloft will glance the region to the north, modest low and mid-level flow will likely contribute to marginal deep-layer and low-level speed shear to promote some organization with the more intense updrafts over the next few hours. In turn, the more sustained storms may produce a few damaging gusts, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Nonetheless, severe gusts are expected to be rather sparse in nature, precluding a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38308116 39388015 39777940 39577828 39217795 38477830 37987921 37798018 37968087 38308116 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with this disturbance remain disorganized, however,
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development. A
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. Sunday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the day, while an upstream low-amplitude ridge builds across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley regions. A high-amplitude upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest. Farther south an upper low will drift slowly westward through the western Gulf, while a weak shortwave trough drifts slowly northward through the southwestern States. Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast by the NHC to remain well off the FL coast. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across a portion of the Great Lakes along and ahead of a cold front and in association with the aforementioned progressive shortwave trough. While this activity will reside within a belt of moderate deep-layer winds, updrafts will likely be elevated and will encounter an increasingly marginal thermodynamic environment as they continue east. Surface-based thunderstorm development along the southwestern extension of the front across the middle MS Valley and central Plains appears unlikely due to weak frontal convergence and potential mid-level subsidence with building upper ridge. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are expected from the Gulf Coast through the coastal Carolinas as well as a portion of the Southwestern States. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/14/2019 Read more