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Cotton in Far West Texas was beginning to wilt, due to heat and absence of rain. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 11, 2019

MD 1970 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 648...650... FOR EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...northern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 648...650... Valid 122304Z - 130100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 648, 650 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for an isolated tornado continues from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. A damaging wind threat may eventually develop southward across the remainder of eastern Iowa and into northern Illinois, and additional watches may be needed. DISCUSSION...Embedded supercells continue within an area of warm advection precipitation from northeast IA into southwest WI near a warm front. Although temperatures are currently cooler over WI, southwestern parts of the state are in close proximity to higher theta-e air just to the southwest. In addition, 850 mb winds will continue to provide advection and low-level shear. To the south of the ongoing cluster, strong instability remains ahead of the cold front which is now over central IA. Over the next few hours, storms are expected to increase in coverage, with hail or wind possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as effective SRH remains in the 150-250 m2/s2 range over northern IL. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 41338769 40878919 40729013 40759072 40919128 41189165 41509175 42099155 42499136 43379124 43789076 43769027 43458981 43118918 42888872 42598806 42428771 42078746 41648751 41338769 Read more

Drought and heat were stressing pastures in North Texas. Ponds also needed rain to refill them. Numerous counties adopted burn bans, given the dry conditions. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 11, 2019

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CSM TO 40 NNE CSM TO 15 SW END TO 30 E PNC TO 35 NNE BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969 ..DEAN..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-017-035-037-039-043-047-073-081-083-103-105-109-113- 117-119-129-131-143-147-149-122340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CANADIAN CRAIG CREEK CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS ROGERS TULSA WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 649 SEVERE TSTM OK 121955Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a cold front extending across northern Oklahoma. Hot/humid conditions along and south of the front will result in strong to damaging wind gusts in the most intense cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Clinton OK to 45 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1969 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1969 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Areas affected...West-central into northeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649... Valid 122231Z - 130000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind gusts will continue into the early evening. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from west-central into northeast OK as of 2230Z. Convection has largely remained disorganized thus far, and observed wind gusts over the last hour from ASOS and the OK mesonet have been less than 35 kt. This region is on the southern fringe of stronger midlevel flow associated with the upper trough over the central/northern Plains, and as convection continues to propagate southward, effective shear will tend to decrease and no substantial uptick in convective organization is expected. However, occasional wet microbursts and/or stronger gusts along the leading edge of the cold pool will pose some threat for severe wind into the early evening. The greatest relative short-term threat will likely be with the forward propagating cluster moving from Noble into Pawnee/Osage counties in OK. ..Dean.. 09/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35639993 35859934 36329791 36749719 36899671 36909587 36879545 36679527 36369540 36139549 35829594 35659628 35529745 35369885 35299958 35239990 35639993 Read more

Cattle in several areas of the Rolling Plains were receiving supplemental feed as pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to poor. Cotton needed rain to increase boll size and quality. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 11, 2019

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SDA TO 50 NW LWD TO 40 NW DSM TO 10 ENE FOD TO 25 W MCW TO 25 E FRM. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC131-161-122240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER ROCK ISLAND IAC001-003-007-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-039-045-049-051- 053-055-057-061-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-087-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-135-139-153-157-159- 163-169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-195-197- 122240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CERRO GORDO CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON Read more

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SDA TO 50 NW LWD TO 40 NW DSM TO 10 ENE FOD TO 25 W MCW TO 25 E FRM. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC131-161-122240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER ROCK ISLAND IAC001-003-007-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-039-045-049-051- 053-055-057-061-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-087-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-135-139-153-157-159- 163-169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-195-197- 122240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CERRO GORDO CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON Read more

WW 650 SEVERE TSTM IA IL 122035Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a cold front moving into western Iowa. These storms will track across the watch area through the early evening, posing a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Waterloo IA to 35 miles south southwest of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648...WW 649... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-122240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW CLAYTON FAYETTE FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK MNC039-045-047-049-055-099-109-131-147-157-161-169-122240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WINONA WIC001-011-023-035-043-053-057-063-081-091-103-121-123-122240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-122240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW CLAYTON FAYETTE FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK MNC039-045-047-049-055-099-109-131-147-157-161-169-122240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WINONA WIC001-011-023-035-043-053-057-063-081-091-103-121-123-122240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 648 TORNADO IA MN WI 121915Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Southeast Minnesota Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon along a warm front across the watch area. A few supercells are possible, capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of La Crosse WI to 35 miles east of Waterloo IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CSM TO 45 N CSM TO 10 NW END TO 30 NNW PNC. ..DEAN..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-017-035-037-039-043-047-053-071-073-081-083-093-103- 105-109-113-117-119-129-131-143-147-149-122240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CANADIAN CRAIG CREEK CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS ROGERS TULSA WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1968 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1968 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Areas affected...Southeastern Minnesota...northeastern Iowa...west-central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648... Valid 122046Z - 122245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will continue in WW 648 for at least a few hours. Discrete storms ahead of the ongoing linear segment pose the greatest tornado threat as they interact with the warm front. Threat will transition to mainly damaging winds as the linear segment overtakes discrete activity with time. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible later this evening. DISCUSSION...While a cluster of storms has congealed along the MN/IA border, discrete activity has continued to increase ahead of this linear segment with a storm in Howard County, IA showing increasing low-level rotation per KARX radar velocity data. Given the effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 along the warm front, any discrete activity will be capable of producing a tornado. The tornado threat will likely be limited spatially as the linear segment is likely to overtake the discrete storms out ahead of it within the next few hours. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings show storms are likely marginally surface based as cloud cover has limited low-level destabilization. As such, the threat for damaging wind gusts will be on the increase this evening with storm mode transitioning to linear with time. Storms may form along the cold front in western portions of WW 648; however, a mainly linear mode and ongoing upstream activity should limit their severity. Areas downstream of Tornado Watch 648 will likely be considered for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch later this evening conditional on the intensity of the line segment forecast to move east along the northward lifting warm front. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44109377 44599294 44839126 44398971 44068945 43508955 42778993 42579008 42509015 42529059 42599203 43119335 43699377 44109377 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 20:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 21:31:24 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system. Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt. The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has been sped up to become more in line with current consensus solutions. Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 23(37) 2(39) X(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 34(51) 6(57) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 2 National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KIKO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 112.2W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and is expected to continue to move to the west or west-northwest at a slower speed over the next few days. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KIKO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Kiko was located near 16.1, -112.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.