Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 28 22:27:06 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 28 22:27:06 UTC 2019.

MD 1883 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1883 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282043Z - 282145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for severe hail and wind into early evening. It still seems unlikely that a watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is initiating east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, particularly near/south of the Raton Mesa vicinity, where insolation appears to have contributed to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, within weak lee surface troughing. This may be largely in the wake of stronger forcing for ascent associated with a low-amplitude mid-level impulse, which is migrating around the periphery of subtropical ridging centered over the Southwest. However, focused low-level convergence and orographic forcing, coupled with continued weakening of inhibition with additional surface heating, may still allow for increasing and intensifying storm development through the remainder of the afternoon. At the same time, models suggest a continued gradual strengthening and veering of mid-level flow (to around 30 kt at 500 mb), from west-northwesterly to northwesterly, which may increase deep-layer shear sufficiently to support organizing convection. This may include isolated supercell structures, and perhaps, eventually, a small upscale growing cluster. Aided by steep lapse rates, strongest activity may initially pose a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts, then strong surface gusts associated with consolidating/strengthening surface cold pools, which will tend to propagate southeastward and southward. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34340471 35020521 35490489 35900471 36270453 36660421 36770359 35610297 34460353 34340471 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over northeast New Mexico. ...20z Update... No appreciable changes are warranted to 1630z outlook. Isolated deep convection is beginning to develop over the higher terrain of northeast NM (Colfax/Mora Counties). This activity is expected to gradually mature over the next few hours with some threat for isolated wind/hail. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...New Mexico... Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over northeast New Mexico. ...20z Update... No appreciable changes are warranted to 1630z outlook. Isolated deep convection is beginning to develop over the higher terrain of northeast NM (Colfax/Mora Counties). This activity is expected to gradually mature over the next few hours with some threat for isolated wind/hail. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...New Mexico... Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over northeast New Mexico. ...20z Update... No appreciable changes are warranted to 1630z outlook. Isolated deep convection is beginning to develop over the higher terrain of northeast NM (Colfax/Mora Counties). This activity is expected to gradually mature over the next few hours with some threat for isolated wind/hail. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...New Mexico... Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The dry thunderstorm area was expanded into portions of central Washington along the Cascades, northeast Nevada, and western Wyoming based on latest forecast guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest will retrograde westward during the D2/Thursday period. Monsoonal moisture will remain across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the central Rockies. A shortwave trough will continue its progression into Oregon. Thunderstorm activity over dry fuels will be the main concern as mid-level winds will weaken across the West with an attendant weakening of surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in terrain-favored areas of the central Rockies and Great Basin. The greatest chance for a more robust wind/RH concern will be in northwest Nevada where a mid-level wind speed max will impact the region during the late afternoon/evening. ...Oregon...far southern Washington...southern Idaho...central/eastern Utah...western Colorado... Thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon across these areas. Well-mixed boundary layers should keep precipitation to a minimum in most locations. Western Oregon, potentially west of the Cascades, will also see thunderstorms early in the period with aid from mid-level ascent. Scattered coverage is possible in central Oregon/Utah. However, PWAT near 1 inch (Oregon) and slow storm motions (Utah) increase the likelihood of wetting rainfall such that a SCTDRYT area will not be introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The dry thunderstorm area was expanded into portions of central Washington along the Cascades, northeast Nevada, and western Wyoming based on latest forecast guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest will retrograde westward during the D2/Thursday period. Monsoonal moisture will remain across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the central Rockies. A shortwave trough will continue its progression into Oregon. Thunderstorm activity over dry fuels will be the main concern as mid-level winds will weaken across the West with an attendant weakening of surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in terrain-favored areas of the central Rockies and Great Basin. The greatest chance for a more robust wind/RH concern will be in northwest Nevada where a mid-level wind speed max will impact the region during the late afternoon/evening. ...Oregon...far southern Washington...southern Idaho...central/eastern Utah...western Colorado... Thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon across these areas. Well-mixed boundary layers should keep precipitation to a minimum in most locations. Western Oregon, potentially west of the Cascades, will also see thunderstorms early in the period with aid from mid-level ascent. Scattered coverage is possible in central Oregon/Utah. However, PWAT near 1 inch (Oregon) and slow storm motions (Utah) increase the likelihood of wetting rainfall such that a SCTDRYT area will not be introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The dry thunderstorm area was expanded into portions of central Washington along the Cascades, northeast Nevada, and western Wyoming based on latest forecast guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest will retrograde westward during the D2/Thursday period. Monsoonal moisture will remain across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the central Rockies. A shortwave trough will continue its progression into Oregon. Thunderstorm activity over dry fuels will be the main concern as mid-level winds will weaken across the West with an attendant weakening of surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in terrain-favored areas of the central Rockies and Great Basin. The greatest chance for a more robust wind/RH concern will be in northwest Nevada where a mid-level wind speed max will impact the region during the late afternoon/evening. ...Oregon...far southern Washington...southern Idaho...central/eastern Utah...western Colorado... Thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon across these areas. Well-mixed boundary layers should keep precipitation to a minimum in most locations. Western Oregon, potentially west of the Cascades, will also see thunderstorms early in the period with aid from mid-level ascent. Scattered coverage is possible in central Oregon/Utah. However, PWAT near 1 inch (Oregon) and slow storm motions (Utah) increase the likelihood of wetting rainfall such that a SCTDRYT area will not be introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The dry thunderstorm area was expanded into portions of central Washington along the Cascades, northeast Nevada, and western Wyoming based on latest forecast guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/28/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest will retrograde westward during the D2/Thursday period. Monsoonal moisture will remain across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the central Rockies. A shortwave trough will continue its progression into Oregon. Thunderstorm activity over dry fuels will be the main concern as mid-level winds will weaken across the West with an attendant weakening of surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in terrain-favored areas of the central Rockies and Great Basin. The greatest chance for a more robust wind/RH concern will be in northwest Nevada where a mid-level wind speed max will impact the region during the late afternoon/evening. ...Oregon...far southern Washington...southern Idaho...central/eastern Utah...western Colorado... Thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon across these areas. Well-mixed boundary layers should keep precipitation to a minimum in most locations. Western Oregon, potentially west of the Cascades, will also see thunderstorms early in the period with aid from mid-level ascent. Scattered coverage is possible in central Oregon/Utah. However, PWAT near 1 inch (Oregon) and slow storm motions (Utah) increase the likelihood of wetting rainfall such that a SCTDRYT area will not be introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Trumbull fire has transitioned from a Type 3 Fire to a Type 4 Fire with Corey Wood as the Incident Commander and Seth LaRowe as the IC Trainee. The fire continues to be managed and monitored by a Wildland Fire module, a Type 3 engine, and a Type 4

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN WI TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Some severe threat exists with thunderstorms that form along a front from the upper Midwest to the central Plains. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest to Central Plains... Notable mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes region ahead of a strong short-wave trough Thursday. This feature will shift into eastern ON by the end of the period, only glancing portions of the US near the international border. In the wake of the short wave, surface pressures will build across the High Plains from AB/SK into the mid MO Valley, forcing a front to a position from central WI - central IA - southern NE by 18z. This boundary will likely serve as the primary forcing mechanism for potentially robust convection by late afternoon. Latest short-term model guidance (NAM in particular) suggests higher-PW air mass will advance north across the Plains late day1, then become entrained along/ahead of the boundary before being shunted downstream toward the Great Lakes. This appears to be underway early this afternoon with mid 60s surface dew points now advancing north across western KS. Models insist strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this will aid buoyancy as moisture advects northeast ahead of the front. Latest thinking is convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z and frontal ascent should encourage deep convection. With modest northwesterly flow aloft there is reason to believe organized frontal convection will evolve then mature as it propagates southeast during the evening hours. Longer-lived thunderstorm complex may ultimately evolve over portions of KS/western MO as some hint of a LLJ will be maintained across this region during the overnight hours. Wind/hail are the primary threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN WI TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Some severe threat exists with thunderstorms that form along a front from the upper Midwest to the central Plains. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest to Central Plains... Notable mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes region ahead of a strong short-wave trough Thursday. This feature will shift into eastern ON by the end of the period, only glancing portions of the US near the international border. In the wake of the short wave, surface pressures will build across the High Plains from AB/SK into the mid MO Valley, forcing a front to a position from central WI - central IA - southern NE by 18z. This boundary will likely serve as the primary forcing mechanism for potentially robust convection by late afternoon. Latest short-term model guidance (NAM in particular) suggests higher-PW air mass will advance north across the Plains late day1, then become entrained along/ahead of the boundary before being shunted downstream toward the Great Lakes. This appears to be underway early this afternoon with mid 60s surface dew points now advancing north across western KS. Models insist strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this will aid buoyancy as moisture advects northeast ahead of the front. Latest thinking is convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z and frontal ascent should encourage deep convection. With modest northwesterly flow aloft there is reason to believe organized frontal convection will evolve then mature as it propagates southeast during the evening hours. Longer-lived thunderstorm complex may ultimately evolve over portions of KS/western MO as some hint of a LLJ will be maintained across this region during the overnight hours. Wind/hail are the primary threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN WI TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Some severe threat exists with thunderstorms that form along a front from the upper Midwest to the central Plains. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest to Central Plains... Notable mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes region ahead of a strong short-wave trough Thursday. This feature will shift into eastern ON by the end of the period, only glancing portions of the US near the international border. In the wake of the short wave, surface pressures will build across the High Plains from AB/SK into the mid MO Valley, forcing a front to a position from central WI - central IA - southern NE by 18z. This boundary will likely serve as the primary forcing mechanism for potentially robust convection by late afternoon. Latest short-term model guidance (NAM in particular) suggests higher-PW air mass will advance north across the Plains late day1, then become entrained along/ahead of the boundary before being shunted downstream toward the Great Lakes. This appears to be underway early this afternoon with mid 60s surface dew points now advancing north across western KS. Models insist strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this will aid buoyancy as moisture advects northeast ahead of the front. Latest thinking is convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z and frontal ascent should encourage deep convection. With modest northwesterly flow aloft there is reason to believe organized frontal convection will evolve then mature as it propagates southeast during the evening hours. Longer-lived thunderstorm complex may ultimately evolve over portions of KS/western MO as some hint of a LLJ will be maintained across this region during the overnight hours. Wind/hail are the primary threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN WI TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Some severe threat exists with thunderstorms that form along a front from the upper Midwest to the central Plains. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest to Central Plains... Notable mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes region ahead of a strong short-wave trough Thursday. This feature will shift into eastern ON by the end of the period, only glancing portions of the US near the international border. In the wake of the short wave, surface pressures will build across the High Plains from AB/SK into the mid MO Valley, forcing a front to a position from central WI - central IA - southern NE by 18z. This boundary will likely serve as the primary forcing mechanism for potentially robust convection by late afternoon. Latest short-term model guidance (NAM in particular) suggests higher-PW air mass will advance north across the Plains late day1, then become entrained along/ahead of the boundary before being shunted downstream toward the Great Lakes. This appears to be underway early this afternoon with mid 60s surface dew points now advancing north across western KS. Models insist strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this will aid buoyancy as moisture advects northeast ahead of the front. Latest thinking is convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z and frontal ascent should encourage deep convection. With modest northwesterly flow aloft there is reason to believe organized frontal convection will evolve then mature as it propagates southeast during the evening hours. Longer-lived thunderstorm complex may ultimately evolve over portions of KS/western MO as some hint of a LLJ will be maintained across this region during the overnight hours. Wind/hail are the primary threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Darrow.. 08/28/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

The Mercer Fire was ignited by lightning August 22, 2019 in the Pusch Ridge Wilderness north of Melpomene road. The Saguaro Wildland Fire Module and the Mesa Interagency Hotshots worked to secure the fire yesterday and made great progress. Last night, the fire transitioned from a Type 4 Incident commander down to a Type 5 Incident Commander. All firelines held overnight, and there was no smoke visible this morning. Today firefighters will hold, patrol and improve firelines, as well as cold-trail and mop-up (identify remaining smoldering fuels, and extinguish them ) as needed. If fire activity does not increase, resources will eventually be released, and the fire will be placed in monitor status by Santa Catalina District personnel. This will be the final update for the Mercer Fire unless there is a significant

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible between 3 to 8 PM MDT over northeast New Mexico. ...New Mexico... Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours. ..Cook.. 08/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible between 3 to 8 PM MDT over northeast New Mexico. ...New Mexico... Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours. ..Cook.. 08/28/2019 Read more