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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will remain in place across much of the CONUS today as high pressure remains situated from the West into the Midwest. This, in combination with generally poor fuel receptiveness to fire, will keep fire weather concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... The strong high pressure in the Plains will shift slightly eastward on Saturday. Cold temperatures will continue to be present across a substantial portion of the U.S. Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 23 19:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level trough will extend from eastern Canada south over much of the eastern U.S. on Saturday as upper-level ridging dominates across much of the western states. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest Saturday accompanied by rain showers. NAM forecast soundings depict minimal elevated instability (less than 200 J/kg) near the coast, and a sporadic lightning strike will be possible in this area as precipitation moves onshore. Overall, the risk remains too low to introduce thunder probabilities with this outlook. Elsewhere, surface high pressure and a very cold/stable air mass will preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Bunting.. 12/23/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible today across parts of New England and south Florida. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone will develop northward across southwestern ON and western QC, within the left exit region of a 170 kt jet streak that will rotate around the eastern periphery of a deep mid-upper low over the Great Lakes. South of the cyclone, an arctic cold front will continue to surge eastward across the Mid-Atlantic/New England today, and southeastward into south FL. Buoyancy rooted in the mid levels will remain limited across New England, with only isolated lightning flashes expected with embedded/elevated convection. A narrow/forced band of showers, and very isolated lightning flashes, will move quickly offshore of NJ prior to 17z. Otherwise, the primary pre-frontal band of convection has shifted southward into the FL Straits, and only isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon along the cold front/wind shift. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 12/23/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... A strong high pressure system within the Plains into the Southeast will keep cold temperatures entrenched across much of the CONUS today. Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
Mesoscale Discussion 2069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 Areas affected...western New York State Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 231551Z - 232145Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow with lake-enhanced rates of 1-2+ in/hr and localized blizzard conditions possible through much of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a strong surface low and cold front moving across the northeastern US, snow is forecast to increase in intensity and persists across portions of western NY State through much of this afternoon. Over the last 90 min, snow has increased in intensity with below 1/4 mile visibility and heavy snow reported at several locations along the eastern shores of lake Erie. As the surface low is forecast to drift slowly northeastward, low and mid-level winds are expected to become more southwesterly with time, aligning more favorably with the lake axis. Significant lake-enhancement of ongoing snow is expected within the post-frontal arctic airmass. Rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized rates greater than 2+ in/hr are possible. In addition to the heavy snow, the strong fetch of low-level southwesterly flow will be enhanced by strong surface pressure gradients along the backside of the surface low. Numerous gusts greater than 50 mph have been noted across western NY State in the last 2 hours. Localized blizzard conditions are likely along the immediate lake shore, where heavy blowing snow and strong wind gusts to 50-60 mph will likely persist well into the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 12/23/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF... LAT...LON 43397899 43457851 43427796 43387781 43277759 43097778 42927800 42757828 42607871 42527890 42447912 42387930 42377938 42457945 42637930 42807911 42937913 43117915 43397899 Read more

The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources stocked more than 8.2 million fish in the state's waterbodies in 2022 to offset drought effects and create a positive fishing experience for the public. The department stocks fewer, larger fish, and releases them in waterbodies that were less affected by the drought. ABC4 (Salt Lake City, Utah), Dec. 13, 2022

The Feather River Fish Hatchery intends to exceed its typical production quota of 6 million fall-run Chinook salmon to support California's commercial and recreational salmon fisheries. The hatchery raised and released 8 million fall-run Chinook salmon smolts in 2022. The hatchery is aiming to produce about 8 million fall-run Chinook salmon smolts and 1.5 million fall-run Chinook salmon fingerlings in 2023, for an increase of 3.5 million over typical production goals. Ongoing drought, low adult returns and a thiamine deficiency has affected in-river production. YubaNet (Nevada City, California), Dec. 16, 2022

The Lower Elkhorn Natural Resource District Board of Directors established an annual limit of 15 acre inches per certified irrigated acre for any irrigation well located in an extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought area on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Norfolk Daily News (Neb.), Dec. 20, 2022

Antelope Springs at Chickasaw National Recreation Area stopped flowing because the aquifer has not received enough precipitation to keep it fully charged. Oklahoma's News 4 (Oklahoma City, Okla.), Nov. 18, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 22 19:46:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass will encompass much of the CONUS on Friday, while a cold front moves southward across South FL into the evening hours. While this pattern will generally limit fire-weather concerns, a brief period of dry/breezy conditions is possible across north-central FL behind the cold front during the afternoon. However, the brief nature of these conditions, coupled with marginally receptive fuels, should generally temper the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense mid/upper-level cyclone will progress east-northeastward from the OH Valley/Great Lakes across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday. A strong cold front will sweep quickly eastward off the Atlantic Coast Friday morning, and southeastward over FL through the period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur early in the period across parts of New England with weak instability and pronounced forcing for ascent associated with a strong low-level warm advection regime, and over parts of south FL before the front arrives. Organized severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across either area. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2022 Read more

MD 2062 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR EASTERN MISSOURI TO WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri to western Illinois Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 221659Z - 222100Z SUMMARY...Sporadic, short-lived blizzard/snow squall conditions will be possible under a mesoscale snow band as it tracks east across parts of eastern Missouri and western Illinois through early/mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations from far eastern IA show visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times under a persistent, though loosely organized, snow band. Based on latest RAP mesoanalysis, this band is primarily being driven by broad scale ascent ahead of a deepening upper low over the central Plains, augmented by more focused frontogenetical lift within the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast soundings indicate that much of this lift coincides with a 100-150 mb deep dendritic growth zone, which is likely yielding moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates up to 1 inch/hour. Concurrently, strong cold advection behind the surface front is supporting frequent wind gusts between 25-35 knots from eastern IA to central MO. The combination of these winds and moderate snowfall rates will likely result in periods of blizzard/snow squall conditions with visibility reductions briefly falling to 1/4 mile under the snow band as it continues moving east through early/mid afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/22/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39969175 41699077 42249007 42128917 41658861 40958810 40208837 38978904 38298989 37559125 37559200 38439313 38789294 39259244 39969175 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL AND EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... A severe thunderstorm remains possible this afternoon across far eastern North Carolina. A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight, mainly over western portions of central to south Florida. ...Central to south FL... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing over the Loop Current in the east-central Gulf within a modest low-level warm advection regime. This regime will gradually shift east towards the west coast of FL through this evening and across the peninsula tonight. Typically, this setup would yield convection weakening as it approaches the relatively cooler waters along the west coast. But a strengthening mid-level jetlet, separate yet influenced by amplification of the longwave trough centered over the north-central states, could support offshore supercells reaching the coast. Low-level flow will modestly amplify, stronger north and weaker south, while gradually veering from southwest to west overnight. This could yield a marginal severe threat spreading somewhat inland before weakening towards dawn. ...Eastern NC... A 1011-mb surface low near the NC/SC coastal border should deepen somewhat as it tracks northeast over eastern NC this afternoon. The corridor of surface-based instability near this cyclone will remain quite narrow inland of the shelf waters as abundant elevated showers and thunderstorms persist in the warm conveyor downstream. This process will likely mitigate diabatic destabilization until after convection passes by, but mid-level subsidence will ensue with substantial drying and weak warming aloft. This setup suggests that the environment conditionally favorable for surface-based supercells may remain storm-free, which is largely supported by morning CAM guidance. The southern Outer Banks should have the relatively greatest potential for a supercell to brush the region during the afternoon, with a brief severe wind gust or weak tornado possible. ..Grams/Moore.. 12/22/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity around 20-25 percent is currently being observed locally across portions of southwest Texas. However, these conditions will be brief as an arctic cold front continues to move southwestward into the area. In addition, fuels are mostly moist across this region which also precludes significant fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... Anomalously cold surface temperatures accompanying an arctic airmass across the central CONUS will generally limit fire-weather concerns on Thursday. The one exception will be over parts of southwest TX, where a brief period of dry/breezy conditions is possible ahead of a southward-advancing cold front. However, these conditions should be too marginal/brief for any appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Lincoln is currently experiencing its 10th driest year to date, with its primary water source, wells along the Platte River, becoming less reliable as parts of the Platte River dried up over the summer. The capital city is looking for alternatives, and a group of 27 advisors will decide on its selection in January 2023. Nebraska Public Media (Lincoln), Dec 20, 2022

Drought this summer reduced seed and fruit production so birds will have to work harder to find food this winter. Results of the annual Audubon Christmas Bird Count on Dec. 14 at the Missouri Department of Conservation’s Four Rivers Conservation Area south of Kansas City found a high number of species, but low bird numbers within the species counted. Drought affected the bird count, according to the organizer and ornithology collection manager at the University of Kansas Biodiversity Institute. Teams recorded 110 different species of birds. Some wetland pools that waterfowl and shorebirds depend on were dry, and all other pools were low. In the uplands, native plant foods that wild birds utilize are poor. Wild grape vines and poison ivy vines did not bear fruit. Coralberry, a late-winter food for birds, did not yield many berries. Forbs and grasses produced few seeds, to the detriment of various sparrow species that depend on them. Missouri Department of Conservation (Jefferson City), Dec 21, 2022