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WW 13 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 041335Z - 041900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 835 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida and eastern Florida Panhandle Eastern and southern Georgia Southern and central South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 835 AM until 200 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of strong-severe thunderstorms should proceed eastward out of tornado watch 12 and across this area, offering damaging winds and the potential for a couple tornadoes before it weakens later today. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southeast of Tallahassee FL to 35 miles north northeast of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest guidance maintains weak winds (10-15 mph) across the southern High Plains amid RH in the low to mid 20s with minimal signal for sustained elevated fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Moore.. 01/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will shift eastward out of the Southwest and into the southern Plains through the day on Thursday. Two upper-level troughs will bookend this feature. At the surface, a weak lee trough will develop in the southern High Plains. Despite the lee trough, weak surface winds across the region and RH above critical thresholds will keep fire weather concerns low. Elsewhere in the U.S. fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest guidance maintains weak winds (10-15 mph) across the southern High Plains amid RH in the low to mid 20s with minimal signal for sustained elevated fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Moore.. 01/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will shift eastward out of the Southwest and into the southern Plains through the day on Thursday. Two upper-level troughs will bookend this feature. At the surface, a weak lee trough will develop in the southern High Plains. Despite the lee trough, weak surface winds across the region and RH above critical thresholds will keep fire weather concerns low. Elsewhere in the U.S. fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered near the IA/IL/WI border intersection early Thursday morning. This cyclone is expected to trend more progressive throughout the day, moving eastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. During the same period, a strong shortwave trough (accompanied by a robust mid-level jet streak) will move through the base of the this cyclone. This overall evolution will lead to a deamplification of the upper pattern east of the Rockies, as well as reinforcement of the dry and stable conditions already in place across much of the central/eastern CONUS. This will preclude thunderstorm development in these areas, with the exception of the central FL Peninsula, where a weak, southward-progressing may help initiate a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. Farther west, a deep upper trough will likely extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. Bifurcation of this upper trough is anticipated throughout the period, as a shortwave trough embedded within the large upper troughing progresses through central and southern CA. By the early Friday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend across the Great Basin into the Lower CO River Valley. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will contribute to the potential for isolated lightning strikes across much of central and southern CA. The highest thunderstorm coverage across central CA is expected from Thursday morning into the late afternoon, while the highest coverage across southern CA is expected Thursday afternoon through the evening. ..Mosier.. 01/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered near the IA/IL/WI border intersection early Thursday morning. This cyclone is expected to trend more progressive throughout the day, moving eastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. During the same period, a strong shortwave trough (accompanied by a robust mid-level jet streak) will move through the base of the this cyclone. This overall evolution will lead to a deamplification of the upper pattern east of the Rockies, as well as reinforcement of the dry and stable conditions already in place across much of the central/eastern CONUS. This will preclude thunderstorm development in these areas, with the exception of the central FL Peninsula, where a weak, southward-progressing may help initiate a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. Farther west, a deep upper trough will likely extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. Bifurcation of this upper trough is anticipated throughout the period, as a shortwave trough embedded within the large upper troughing progresses through central and southern CA. By the early Friday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend across the Great Basin into the Lower CO River Valley. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will contribute to the potential for isolated lightning strikes across much of central and southern CA. The highest thunderstorm coverage across central CA is expected from Thursday morning into the late afternoon, while the highest coverage across southern CA is expected Thursday afternoon through the evening. ..Mosier.. 01/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast today over portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... A midlevel cyclone (evident in water vapor imagery) currently centered over southern MN will move slowly east-southeastward into southern WI through the period. Peripheral to this cyclone, broad/enhanced cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the eastern CONUS, while an embedded southwesterly midlevel speed max lifts northeastward from the TN Valley toward the Northeast and weakens with time. At the surface, a cold front, currently extending from the Ohio Valley south-southwestward into the central Gulf Coast, will advance eastward toward the East Coast. Ahead of the cold front, a QLCS extending from SC south-southwestward into the FL Panhandle will continue tracking eastward this afternoon. Upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and pockets of diurnal heating/destabilization ahead of the convective line will continue to support surface-based inflow for this activity as it continues toward the coast. And, 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented mostly parallel to the leading-edge gust front will favor a continued organized/linear mode with a primary risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of embedded mesovortex tornadoes. The tornado and damaging-wind risk should be maximized with any north-south-oriented segments of the line, where deep-layer flow/shear will be more favorably oriented to the gust front. For details regarding the ongoing severe risk over this area, refer to Tornado Watch 13 and Mesoscale Discussion 34. Farther north into eastern North Carolina, additional thunderstorm development is underway along the eastern edge of widespread cloud coverage extending across western North Carolina. During the next couple of hours, continued diurnal destabilization across the warm sector will yield moderate instability amid strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, with 45-55 kt of effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature. As a result, storms should gradually intensify as they intercept this favorable environment this afternoon. A mixed-mode, consisting of supercell clusters and line segments, will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes this afternoon. For more details, refer to Tornado Watch 14. ...California Coast... While cloud coverage will generally limit diurnal heating along the CA coast today, at least pockets of heating/mixing amid lower/middle 50s dewpoints should yield weak surface-based instability by the evening/overnight hours. Strong DCVA ahead of an approaching midlevel trough and a strengthening low-level jet should aid isolated thunderstorm development during the evening/overnight hours. 40+ kt of deep-layer shear should support a loosely organized frontal band of convection capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman/Goss.. 01/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast today over portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... A midlevel cyclone (evident in water vapor imagery) currently centered over southern MN will move slowly east-southeastward into southern WI through the period. Peripheral to this cyclone, broad/enhanced cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the eastern CONUS, while an embedded southwesterly midlevel speed max lifts northeastward from the TN Valley toward the Northeast and weakens with time. At the surface, a cold front, currently extending from the Ohio Valley south-southwestward into the central Gulf Coast, will advance eastward toward the East Coast. Ahead of the cold front, a QLCS extending from SC south-southwestward into the FL Panhandle will continue tracking eastward this afternoon. Upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and pockets of diurnal heating/destabilization ahead of the convective line will continue to support surface-based inflow for this activity as it continues toward the coast. And, 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented mostly parallel to the leading-edge gust front will favor a continued organized/linear mode with a primary risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of embedded mesovortex tornadoes. The tornado and damaging-wind risk should be maximized with any north-south-oriented segments of the line, where deep-layer flow/shear will be more favorably oriented to the gust front. For details regarding the ongoing severe risk over this area, refer to Tornado Watch 13 and Mesoscale Discussion 34. Farther north into eastern North Carolina, additional thunderstorm development is underway along the eastern edge of widespread cloud coverage extending across western North Carolina. During the next couple of hours, continued diurnal destabilization across the warm sector will yield moderate instability amid strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, with 45-55 kt of effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature. As a result, storms should gradually intensify as they intercept this favorable environment this afternoon. A mixed-mode, consisting of supercell clusters and line segments, will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes this afternoon. For more details, refer to Tornado Watch 14. ...California Coast... While cloud coverage will generally limit diurnal heating along the CA coast today, at least pockets of heating/mixing amid lower/middle 50s dewpoints should yield weak surface-based instability by the evening/overnight hours. Strong DCVA ahead of an approaching midlevel trough and a strengthening low-level jet should aid isolated thunderstorm development during the evening/overnight hours. 40+ kt of deep-layer shear should support a loosely organized frontal band of convection capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman/Goss.. 01/04/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Morning observations indicate that the previous forecast is on track. Only transient elevated conditions are expected across the Permian basin, where fuels are at seasonal dryness levels. Farther east across south-central Texas, where 10-hour fuels are drier, guidance indicates conditions will remain well below elevated fire risk thresholds. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Moore.. 01/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will slowly progress eastward in the Midwest while a ridge builds into the Four Corners. Strong northwesterly mid-level winds will develop from the central Rockies into the southern Plains today as a result. At the surface, the pressure gradient within the southern Plains will remain rather weak. Some areas of 15-20 mph winds may develop for a couple of hours. The most likely place for this will be from east-central New Mexico into the Permian Basin underneath a belt of stronger 850 mb winds. RH may reach 20% at least briefly as well. Given continued model spread, low ensemble probabilities for sustain elevated conditions, and only modestly dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Morning observations indicate that the previous forecast is on track. Only transient elevated conditions are expected across the Permian basin, where fuels are at seasonal dryness levels. Farther east across south-central Texas, where 10-hour fuels are drier, guidance indicates conditions will remain well below elevated fire risk thresholds. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Moore.. 01/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will slowly progress eastward in the Midwest while a ridge builds into the Four Corners. Strong northwesterly mid-level winds will develop from the central Rockies into the southern Plains today as a result. At the surface, the pressure gradient within the southern Plains will remain rather weak. Some areas of 15-20 mph winds may develop for a couple of hours. The most likely place for this will be from east-central New Mexico into the Permian Basin underneath a belt of stronger 850 mb winds. RH may reach 20% at least briefly as well. Given continued model spread, low ensemble probabilities for sustain elevated conditions, and only modestly dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PFN TO 35 E DHN TO 50 SSE MCN. ..GOSS..01/04/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC039-045-077-041540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN GULF LIBERTY GAC007-087-091-095-131-163-167-175-201-205-253-287-321-041540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR DODGE DOUGHERTY GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE TURNER WORTH GMZ633-752-041540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GWO TO 25 NE TCL TO 20 NW CHA. ..WEINMAN..01/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-021-023-025-047-049-063-065-071-073-085-091-095- 099-105-107-117-119-125-129-131-032040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE DALLAS DEKALB GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LOWNDES MARENGO MARSHALL MONROE PERRY PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC005-033-037-047-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-032040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA Read more

WW 7 TORNADO AL LA MS TN 031515Z - 032300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 7 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 915 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms extending from parts of Middle Tennessee southwestward into Mississippi and Louisiana will continue tracking eastward today across the watch area. Other isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the line throughout the day. Parameters are favorable for a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes in the more intense storms through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles southwest of Mc Comb MS to 50 miles northeast of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Mississippi into southern/central Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... An organized line of thunderstorms continues to push eastward across central TN and northern AL. Vertical shear across this region remains strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimating 50 to 60 kt of effective bulk shear. More cellular activity exists farther south across central and southern AL. Numerous rotating storms have been noted over the past few hours across central AL, although the persistence of the rotation has been relatively short-lived in most cells. The best overlap of vertical shear and buoyancy is expected to remain over Central AL for the next few hours and additional severe thunderstorms are possible both with the cellular activity ahead of the line and with storm in the convective line itself. As a result, tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will remain possible. Additional storm development is anticipated later tonight, beginning in MS, along a cold front expected to push eastward through the region. Severe thunderstorms are possible with this activity as well, with a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible. ...IL/IN... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across southern/eastern IL and west-central IN this afternoon and into this evening. Isolated damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps even a brief tornado, remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 01/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023/ ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into middle TN and central KY. This line will persist through the day and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL. Occasional bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day. 12z soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles - providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes with these storms. Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. Relatively strong low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this intensification. Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells may also produce severe hail. Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop across MS as an upper trough approaches the region. It appears likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into AL before 12z. ...IL/IN... An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across western MO. As this feature tracks across the primary cold front this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings in this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more intense cells. The activity is expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening. Read more

MD 0024 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern MN and western WI Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 031923Z - 032330Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow with rates up to 1 in/hr will continue spreading northeastward across parts of southeastern MN into western WI this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a closed mid-level low moving slowly northeastward over eastern NE, with strong DCVA overspreading a low-level baroclinic zone across MN and WI. The resulting isentropic ascent/frontogenetic forcing is leading to a band of heavy snow across parts of southeastern MN. Deep, saturated thermodynamic profiles with strong ascent in the dendritic growth zone should continue favoring heavy snowfall rates across southeastern MN into western WI this afternoon. Snowfall rates up to 1 in/hr are expected with this snow band. Further south over southern MN, warmer temperatures at 850 mb are yielding mixed winter precipitation given sufficiently cold surface temperatures. ..Supinie/Weinman.. 01/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44369208 44509353 44699496 44979543 45409548 45849374 46109226 46079129 45579060 44959029 44569098 44369208 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonable signal for sub-20% RH across portions of central and western TX, but confidence in the duration and coverage of 15-20 mph winds overlapping with low humidity remains limited due to notable spread in deterministic guidance and modest ensemble probabilities. This suggests that patchy areas of transient elevated conditions remains the most likely scenario. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the upper Midwest will make slow progress eastward on Wednesday. In the Great Basin and Southwest, upper-level ridging will amplify and move eastward. This will promote continued moderate to strong mid-level winds across the southern High Plains. At the surface, the pressure gradient in the southern Plains will remain rather weak. With temperatures expected to be warmer in the High Plains, RH of around 20% appears more probable than on Tuesday. Winds will again be relatively light for most areas, though a belt of 15-20 mph may develop in parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin underneath stronger 850 mb flow. Dry grasses would support some fire weather concerns, but confidence in sufficient duration of stronger surface winds and concurrent RH below 20% remains low. Only locally elevated conditions are expected at present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0008 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 8 TORNADO AL GA 031855Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Northern and Central Georgia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over central Alabama will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Sufficient instability and winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Anniston AL to 50 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Areas affected...eastern Alabama into parts of west-central and northwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 031829Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado risk ongoing at this time across central Alabama is forecast to continue expanding eastward/northeastward. New Tornado Watch issuance will likely be required in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of small, rotating updrafts shifting northeastward into/across central Alabama, within eastern portions of Tornado Watch 7. The storms are occurring in an amply unstable environment where low-level dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s. While cloud cover continues to inhibit more robust surface heating, CAPE values will continue to weakly increase from southwest to northeast this afternoon. Meanwhile kinematically, a favorably sheared environment persists, with gradual veering/increasing of the flow with height yielding both low-level and deep-layer shear supportive of updraft rotation (as evidenced by the aforementioned cluster of supercells in central AL). As this environment translates eastward with time, expect associated tornado potential to likewise spread east of the current bounds of WW 007, which will require new WW issuance across eastern Alabama and into portions of western Georgia. ..Goss/Hart.. 01/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 34408601 35048491 34558388 32688416 31688631 31528728 34408601 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. Strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, with related upper troughing extended across much of the central/southern CONUS west of the Rockies. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move within the this troughing, with the lead wave progressing quickly from AR northeastward through the Mid-South and OH Valley throughout the day. Another shortwave will follow in its wake, moving across OK/north TX and the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. A cold front is forecast to extend from a low near the IN/OH/MI border intersection southwestward off the central Gulf Coast early Wednesday. Progression of the lead shortwave will help push this cold front eastward through the Upper OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast. Moist conditions will exist ahead of this front across the Southeast, contributing to the potential for severe thunderstorms. Farther west, a deep upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, with strong mid-level flow throughout its base spreading across much of the West Coast. Strong ascent coupled with cold mid-level temperatures and ample moisture could result in a few thunderstorms, particularly across northern CA after 00Z Thursday. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast today (Tuesday) so there is some uncertainty regarding air mass recovery ahead of the approaching front on Wednesday. However, consensus among the guidance is that at least modest buoyancy, fostered largely by ample low-level moisture, will be in place ahead of the front Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front Wednesday morning. These storms are expected to continue as the front moves eastward, with the highest coverage expected across southeast AL and southern GA from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Thermodynamic conditions will remain relatively uniform ahead of front across the Southeast, with moist low-levels and generally modest buoyancy in place. In contrast, a belt of stronger low/mid-level flow will likely move from AL/GA early in the period northeastward into the Carolinas. As a result, the best overlap of buoyancy and shear is expected Wednesday morning across southeast AL and western/central GA. Potential exists for occasional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two. Strong low-level will continue across the Carolinas through the evening, but thermodynamic conditions will be less favorable than areas farther south. As a result, severe thunderstorms potential is lower, but a few severe storms are still possible. ..Mosier.. 01/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Louisiana into southern/central Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into middle TN and central KY. This line will persist through the day and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL. Occasional bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day. 12z soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles - providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes with these storms. Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. Relatively strong low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this intensification. Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells may also produce severe hail. Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop across MS as an upper trough approaches the region. It appears likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into AL before 12z. ...IL/IN... An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across western MO. As this feature tracks across the primary cold front this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings in this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more intense cells. The activity is expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/03/2023 Read more