Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary features of interest during the extended period are Hurricane Dorian and strong shortwave trough expected to progress quickly through the northern CONUS westerlies from D4/Monday through D6/Wednesday. ...D4/Monday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Air mass across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest is expected to be very moist and buoyant ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front on D4/Monday. Warm temperatures aloft should limit thunderstorm development throughout much of the day with initial convective initiation currently anticipated across the western Dakotas along the cold front. After initiation occurs, the strongly buoyant downstream air mass coupled with a progressive shortwave trough and increasing westerly/northwesterly flow suggest a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment for a forward-propagating MCS. ...FL Peninsula/Dorian... Regarding Dorian, current model forecasts and guidance from the National Hurricane Center move the storm into the southern FL Peninsula on D4/Monday. Forward motion is then expected to slow significantly, with the system moving slowly northward across the FL Peninsula on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Given the anticipated storm trajectory and motion, an increasingly barotropic atmosphere will limit the overlap between the strong vertical shear and buoyancy. Additionally, the mesoscale details typically needed for TC-related tornadoes are difficult to predict at the medium range. Even so, some TC-related tornado threat is possible and this threat will be addressed in coordination with the National Hurricane Center in the coming days as confidence increases. Read more

MD 1897 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628... FOR SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO AND FAR NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Areas affected...southeast KS...southwest MO and far northeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628... Valid 300731Z - 300900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts are possible across southeast KS into adjacent portions of northeast OK and southwest MO in the short term. Trends will be monitored and a watch downstream of WW 628 may become necessary soon. DISCUSSION...A line of strong storms moving into southeast KS will continue to shift east/southeast into adjacent portions of southwest MO and northeast OK early this morning. Radar trends continue to fluctuate and surface observations south and east of Wichita KS have reported sub-severe gusts from around 35-48 mph. Further northeast near Emporia KS, several reports of severe gusts from near 70-90 mph were noted in the past hour. These strong gusts likely were facilitated in part by merging outflow boundary in the vicinity of an MCV over Osage County KS. Southward into OK, the Oklahoma Mesonet site at Newkirk reported a 71 mph gust at 0705z. While MLCIN has been increasing slightly, it will remain modest across parts of northeast OK into southwest MO. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s ahead of the bowing complex and steep 2-6 km lapse rates will maintain a reservoir of moderate instability ahead of the line. Additionally, a well established rear-inflow jet has been noted in regional VWP data. While thermodynamic parameters favor a continued downstream severe threat, the low level jet remains west of the bowing complex. As such, longevity and coverage of the severe threat remains in question. Nevertheless, at least a few damaging gusts appear possible in the short term and a new watch may be needed downstream if the recent re-intensification of the line persists. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36139524 36419419 36449405 36809362 37329354 37889399 38369449 38839531 38809560 38399566 37859593 37389635 37189712 36809754 36479745 36259689 36119603 36139524 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected across the Lower 48 States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern will likely characterized by ridging from the Four Corners into the northern Rockies and troughing over the Great Lakes and OH Valley early Sunday morning. Some enhancement of the northwesterly flow extending from the northern Rockies/northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes is anticipated, but the overall upper pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the day. At surface, expansive ridge centered over the New England, and extending through the Upper Great Lakes and middle OH River Valley, early Sunday is expected to progress northeastward, allowing moisture return into the Upper Midwest and OH Valley. This moisture coupled with broad upper troughing is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms over the middle/upper OH Valley. Depending on destabilization, a few strong storms are possible but limited predictability precludes introducing any risk areas. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the Southwest and late Sunday night/early Monday morning across the northern Plains. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Dorian... Based on recent model runs and guidance from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Dorian is currently expected to be just off the central FL coast by early Monday morning. While some showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are possible across the FL Peninsula on Sunday afternoon/evening, current expectation is for the stronger winds to remain offshore, limiting any tornado threat. A somewhat higher threat is possible early Monday morning as the system gets closer to the coast (particularly in the 00Z ECMWF solution). However, limited buoyancy and low forecast confidence preclude delineating any areas yet. ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected across the Lower 48 States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern will likely characterized by ridging from the Four Corners into the northern Rockies and troughing over the Great Lakes and OH Valley early Sunday morning. Some enhancement of the northwesterly flow extending from the northern Rockies/northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes is anticipated, but the overall upper pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the day. At surface, expansive ridge centered over the New England, and extending through the Upper Great Lakes and middle OH River Valley, early Sunday is expected to progress northeastward, allowing moisture return into the Upper Midwest and OH Valley. This moisture coupled with broad upper troughing is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms over the middle/upper OH Valley. Depending on destabilization, a few strong storms are possible but limited predictability precludes introducing any risk areas. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the Southwest and late Sunday night/early Monday morning across the northern Plains. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Dorian... Based on recent model runs and guidance from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Dorian is currently expected to be just off the central FL coast by early Monday morning. While some showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are possible across the FL Peninsula on Sunday afternoon/evening, current expectation is for the stronger winds to remain offshore, limiting any tornado threat. A somewhat higher threat is possible early Monday morning as the system gets closer to the coast (particularly in the 00Z ECMWF solution). However, limited buoyancy and low forecast confidence preclude delineating any areas yet. ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected across the Lower 48 States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern will likely characterized by ridging from the Four Corners into the northern Rockies and troughing over the Great Lakes and OH Valley early Sunday morning. Some enhancement of the northwesterly flow extending from the northern Rockies/northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes is anticipated, but the overall upper pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the day. At surface, expansive ridge centered over the New England, and extending through the Upper Great Lakes and middle OH River Valley, early Sunday is expected to progress northeastward, allowing moisture return into the Upper Midwest and OH Valley. This moisture coupled with broad upper troughing is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms over the middle/upper OH Valley. Depending on destabilization, a few strong storms are possible but limited predictability precludes introducing any risk areas. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the Southwest and late Sunday night/early Monday morning across the northern Plains. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Dorian... Based on recent model runs and guidance from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Dorian is currently expected to be just off the central FL coast by early Monday morning. While some showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are possible across the FL Peninsula on Sunday afternoon/evening, current expectation is for the stronger winds to remain offshore, limiting any tornado threat. A somewhat higher threat is possible early Monday morning as the system gets closer to the coast (particularly in the 00Z ECMWF solution). However, limited buoyancy and low forecast confidence preclude delineating any areas yet. ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The developing mid-level ridge on Day 1 will become fully fortified across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. Weaker winds aloft and associated synoptic scale forcing suggest that relatively quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail across much of the western CONUS. The only minor exceptions at this time appear to be around the Snake River Plain/Great Divide Basin areas, where diurnal boundary layer mixing may encourage locally elevated wind/RH conditions across terrain favoring locations, and in parts of northwest New Mexico, where a few dry lightning strikes atop modestly dry fuels may support a few ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The developing mid-level ridge on Day 1 will become fully fortified across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. Weaker winds aloft and associated synoptic scale forcing suggest that relatively quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail across much of the western CONUS. The only minor exceptions at this time appear to be around the Snake River Plain/Great Divide Basin areas, where diurnal boundary layer mixing may encourage locally elevated wind/RH conditions across terrain favoring locations, and in parts of northwest New Mexico, where a few dry lightning strikes atop modestly dry fuels may support a few ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The developing mid-level ridge on Day 1 will become fully fortified across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. Weaker winds aloft and associated synoptic scale forcing suggest that relatively quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail across much of the western CONUS. The only minor exceptions at this time appear to be around the Snake River Plain/Great Divide Basin areas, where diurnal boundary layer mixing may encourage locally elevated wind/RH conditions across terrain favoring locations, and in parts of northwest New Mexico, where a few dry lightning strikes atop modestly dry fuels may support a few ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The developing mid-level ridge on Day 1 will become fully fortified across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. Weaker winds aloft and associated synoptic scale forcing suggest that relatively quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail across much of the western CONUS. The only minor exceptions at this time appear to be around the Snake River Plain/Great Divide Basin areas, where diurnal boundary layer mixing may encourage locally elevated wind/RH conditions across terrain favoring locations, and in parts of northwest New Mexico, where a few dry lightning strikes atop modestly dry fuels may support a few ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS throughout the period, with stronger flow aloft associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough glancing the Pacific Northwest. In advance of the developing ridge, small shortwave perturbations embedded in the mid-level flow, combined with afternoon heating and upslope flow across the higher terrain, will promote the development of at least isolated, high-based thunderstorms across portions of the central Rockies. Locally dry, breezy conditions may also occur in terrain favoring locations across northern parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, with synoptic forcing to support a more widespread, favorable surface wind/RH parameter space largely absent given the aforementioned mid-level ridging pattern ...Central Rockies... A dry sub-cloud layer extending up to 500 mb, and precipitable water values between 0.50-0.75 inches will support dry strikes associated with high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, where an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added. Near critical to critically dry fuels suggest that new ignitions will be possible, despite slower storm motions, especially on the periphery of the storm cores. Otherwise, 20% RH and surface westerly winds locally reaching the 15-20 mph range will be possible by peak afternoon heating, mainly across portions of the Snake River Plain, eastward to portions of the Great Divide Basin in central to southern Wyoming. The patchy nature of these dry, breezy conditions precludes an elevated delineation at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS throughout the period, with stronger flow aloft associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough glancing the Pacific Northwest. In advance of the developing ridge, small shortwave perturbations embedded in the mid-level flow, combined with afternoon heating and upslope flow across the higher terrain, will promote the development of at least isolated, high-based thunderstorms across portions of the central Rockies. Locally dry, breezy conditions may also occur in terrain favoring locations across northern parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, with synoptic forcing to support a more widespread, favorable surface wind/RH parameter space largely absent given the aforementioned mid-level ridging pattern ...Central Rockies... A dry sub-cloud layer extending up to 500 mb, and precipitable water values between 0.50-0.75 inches will support dry strikes associated with high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, where an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added. Near critical to critically dry fuels suggest that new ignitions will be possible, despite slower storm motions, especially on the periphery of the storm cores. Otherwise, 20% RH and surface westerly winds locally reaching the 15-20 mph range will be possible by peak afternoon heating, mainly across portions of the Snake River Plain, eastward to portions of the Great Divide Basin in central to southern Wyoming. The patchy nature of these dry, breezy conditions precludes an elevated delineation at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS throughout the period, with stronger flow aloft associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough glancing the Pacific Northwest. In advance of the developing ridge, small shortwave perturbations embedded in the mid-level flow, combined with afternoon heating and upslope flow across the higher terrain, will promote the development of at least isolated, high-based thunderstorms across portions of the central Rockies. Locally dry, breezy conditions may also occur in terrain favoring locations across northern parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, with synoptic forcing to support a more widespread, favorable surface wind/RH parameter space largely absent given the aforementioned mid-level ridging pattern ...Central Rockies... A dry sub-cloud layer extending up to 500 mb, and precipitable water values between 0.50-0.75 inches will support dry strikes associated with high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, where an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added. Near critical to critically dry fuels suggest that new ignitions will be possible, despite slower storm motions, especially on the periphery of the storm cores. Otherwise, 20% RH and surface westerly winds locally reaching the 15-20 mph range will be possible by peak afternoon heating, mainly across portions of the Snake River Plain, eastward to portions of the Great Divide Basin in central to southern Wyoming. The patchy nature of these dry, breezy conditions precludes an elevated delineation at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 628 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W P28 TO 20 E P28 TO 20 WNW ICT TO 35 NE ICT TO 10 WNW MHK TO 10 NE MHK TO 10 WNW TOP TO 10 SW OJC. ..LEITMAN..08/30/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 628 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-007-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-061-073-077-099- 111-125-127-133-139-173-177-191-197-205-207-300740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO OSAGE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 628 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 300045Z - 300800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of a large portion of Kansas parts of southeast Nebraska * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 745 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over the next several hours across Kansas and adjacent portions of southern Nebraska, possibly evolving into a large MCS with time. Locally damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe risks, this evening and into the overnight hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Russell KS to 40 miles east of Emporia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 626...WW 627... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Goss Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300550
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible
as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Saturday will likely be characterized by enhanced westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS with weaker flow across the southern CONUS. Western CONUS ridging is expected to build slightly throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward. Broad cyclonic flow east of this ridging should modestly deepen while also progressing slowly eastward. Most prominent surface feature will be ridging initially centered over the Great Lakes Region and expected to shift eastward through the Northeast throughout the day. A remnant frontal boundary will exist along the southern periphery of this high, extending from the northern Mid-Atlantic States westward across the TN and middle MS Valleys and into the central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning across central KS into north-central OK but this activity should be sub-severe. Southerly/southeasterly surface winds across the southern/central Plains will allow moisture to return, supporting strong buoyancy. This surface winds beneath the modest northwesterly flow aloft will also contribute to moderate vertical shear. However, large-scale height rises are expected and the lack of any large-scale forcing for ascent should limit afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage. A few strong to severe storms are possible across the southern and central High Plains but limited coverage coupled with location uncertainty preclude introducing any areas with this outlook. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Saturday will likely be characterized by enhanced westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS with weaker flow across the southern CONUS. Western CONUS ridging is expected to build slightly throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward. Broad cyclonic flow east of this ridging should modestly deepen while also progressing slowly eastward. Most prominent surface feature will be ridging initially centered over the Great Lakes Region and expected to shift eastward through the Northeast throughout the day. A remnant frontal boundary will exist along the southern periphery of this high, extending from the northern Mid-Atlantic States westward across the TN and middle MS Valleys and into the central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning across central KS into north-central OK but this activity should be sub-severe. Southerly/southeasterly surface winds across the southern/central Plains will allow moisture to return, supporting strong buoyancy. This surface winds beneath the modest northwesterly flow aloft will also contribute to moderate vertical shear. However, large-scale height rises are expected and the lack of any large-scale forcing for ascent should limit afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage. A few strong to severe storms are possible across the southern and central High Plains but limited coverage coupled with location uncertainty preclude introducing any areas with this outlook. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Saturday will likely be characterized by enhanced westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS with weaker flow across the southern CONUS. Western CONUS ridging is expected to build slightly throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward. Broad cyclonic flow east of this ridging should modestly deepen while also progressing slowly eastward. Most prominent surface feature will be ridging initially centered over the Great Lakes Region and expected to shift eastward through the Northeast throughout the day. A remnant frontal boundary will exist along the southern periphery of this high, extending from the northern Mid-Atlantic States westward across the TN and middle MS Valleys and into the central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning across central KS into north-central OK but this activity should be sub-severe. Southerly/southeasterly surface winds across the southern/central Plains will allow moisture to return, supporting strong buoyancy. This surface winds beneath the modest northwesterly flow aloft will also contribute to moderate vertical shear. However, large-scale height rises are expected and the lack of any large-scale forcing for ascent should limit afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage. A few strong to severe storms are possible across the southern and central High Plains but limited coverage coupled with location uncertainty preclude introducing any areas with this outlook. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Saturday will likely be characterized by enhanced westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS with weaker flow across the southern CONUS. Western CONUS ridging is expected to build slightly throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward. Broad cyclonic flow east of this ridging should modestly deepen while also progressing slowly eastward. Most prominent surface feature will be ridging initially centered over the Great Lakes Region and expected to shift eastward through the Northeast throughout the day. A remnant frontal boundary will exist along the southern periphery of this high, extending from the northern Mid-Atlantic States westward across the TN and middle MS Valleys and into the central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning across central KS into north-central OK but this activity should be sub-severe. Southerly/southeasterly surface winds across the southern/central Plains will allow moisture to return, supporting strong buoyancy. This surface winds beneath the modest northwesterly flow aloft will also contribute to moderate vertical shear. However, large-scale height rises are expected and the lack of any large-scale forcing for ascent should limit afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage. A few strong to severe storms are possible across the southern and central High Plains but limited coverage coupled with location uncertainty preclude introducing any areas with this outlook. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Mosier.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...HIGH PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some producing severe wind gusts, are possible over southern Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle today. Storms with marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in the Ohio Valley. Other storms capable of mainly hail are expected near the Front Range. ...Southern and Central Plains... West to northwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the central U.S. as a shortwave trough moves southeastward into the Ozarks. An MCS associated with marginally severe wind gusts should be located in eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas at the beginning of the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. This combined with increasing low-level convergence along the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In spite of the instability in place, NAM forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear values across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle generally less than 25 kt. This should keep any severe threat isolated. The stronger multicells may have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ...Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough will move across the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F will likely result in a pocket of moderate instability along and just south of the front by afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along the front in southern Illinois and southern Indiana during the mid to late afternoon as the shortwave trough approaches. This activity should spread eastward into southern Ohio and northern Kentucky by early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with the moderate instability may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ...High Plains... West northwest mid-level flow will be in place across the central High Plains today. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will push low-level moisture into the foothills. As surface temperatures warm, destabilization will result in isolated thunderstorm development in the higher terrain. This convection is forecast to move southeastward into the eastern Plains of Colorado. Although moderate deep-layer shear should be in place, instability should be weak enough to keep any hail threat marginal. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 08/30/2019 Read more