Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern on Saturday will not be too different from that on Friday. A trough will still be centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes with perhaps some deepening occurring. The western ridge will not move much, though midlevel temperatures will warm across the Plains. There will likely be some ongoing convection Saturday morning across parts of the southern Plains toward the middle MS Valley, though it does not appear at this time that this activity will be severe. South/southeasterly low level flow will maintain 60s surface dewpoints across the southern Plains and stream northward across NE/SD by Sunday morning. There could be some pockets of weak to moderate instability develop across parts of OK/TX into the central High Plains, but several rounds of convection in the Days 1 and 2 and widespread cloud cover will limit destabilization across the region. Furthermore, shear will be weak and any stronger storms that do develop likely will not be long-lived or well organized. By the end of the period Hurricane Dorian is forecast to be nearing the FL east coast. However, the storm will likely remain far enough offshore through the Day 3 period that any potential TC-related tornado threat is not expected at this time. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern on Saturday will not be too different from that on Friday. A trough will still be centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes with perhaps some deepening occurring. The western ridge will not move much, though midlevel temperatures will warm across the Plains. There will likely be some ongoing convection Saturday morning across parts of the southern Plains toward the middle MS Valley, though it does not appear at this time that this activity will be severe. South/southeasterly low level flow will maintain 60s surface dewpoints across the southern Plains and stream northward across NE/SD by Sunday morning. There could be some pockets of weak to moderate instability develop across parts of OK/TX into the central High Plains, but several rounds of convection in the Days 1 and 2 and widespread cloud cover will limit destabilization across the region. Furthermore, shear will be weak and any stronger storms that do develop likely will not be long-lived or well organized. By the end of the period Hurricane Dorian is forecast to be nearing the FL east coast. However, the storm will likely remain far enough offshore through the Day 3 period that any potential TC-related tornado threat is not expected at this time. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern on Saturday will not be too different from that on Friday. A trough will still be centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes with perhaps some deepening occurring. The western ridge will not move much, though midlevel temperatures will warm across the Plains. There will likely be some ongoing convection Saturday morning across parts of the southern Plains toward the middle MS Valley, though it does not appear at this time that this activity will be severe. South/southeasterly low level flow will maintain 60s surface dewpoints across the southern Plains and stream northward across NE/SD by Sunday morning. There could be some pockets of weak to moderate instability develop across parts of OK/TX into the central High Plains, but several rounds of convection in the Days 1 and 2 and widespread cloud cover will limit destabilization across the region. Furthermore, shear will be weak and any stronger storms that do develop likely will not be long-lived or well organized. By the end of the period Hurricane Dorian is forecast to be nearing the FL east coast. However, the storm will likely remain far enough offshore through the Day 3 period that any potential TC-related tornado threat is not expected at this time. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will impact the Pacific Northwest today. The upper-level ridge over the region will undergo modest weakening in response. Lingering monsoonal moisture across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest will promote thunderstorms development across these areas. Weak upper-level winds and surface pressure gradients will broadly minimize wind/RH concerns. Locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of Nevada and perhaps south-central Wyoming. ...Pacific Northwest...eastern Great Basin...portions of western Wyoming/Colorado... Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible early in the period across parts of Oregon and southern Washington. This includes the potential for a few lightning strikes on the west side of the Cascades. By mid-morning/early afternoon the threat west of the Cascades will have likely ended. Elsewhere across the highlighted area, continued thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon. The greatest chance of scattered coverage appears to be in the Wasatch Range vicinity, though PWAT near 1 inch increases the likelihood of wetting rainfall. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will impact the Pacific Northwest today. The upper-level ridge over the region will undergo modest weakening in response. Lingering monsoonal moisture across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest will promote thunderstorms development across these areas. Weak upper-level winds and surface pressure gradients will broadly minimize wind/RH concerns. Locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of Nevada and perhaps south-central Wyoming. ...Pacific Northwest...eastern Great Basin...portions of western Wyoming/Colorado... Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible early in the period across parts of Oregon and southern Washington. This includes the potential for a few lightning strikes on the west side of the Cascades. By mid-morning/early afternoon the threat west of the Cascades will have likely ended. Elsewhere across the highlighted area, continued thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon. The greatest chance of scattered coverage appears to be in the Wasatch Range vicinity, though PWAT near 1 inch increases the likelihood of wetting rainfall. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will impact the Pacific Northwest today. The upper-level ridge over the region will undergo modest weakening in response. Lingering monsoonal moisture across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest will promote thunderstorms development across these areas. Weak upper-level winds and surface pressure gradients will broadly minimize wind/RH concerns. Locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of Nevada and perhaps south-central Wyoming. ...Pacific Northwest...eastern Great Basin...portions of western Wyoming/Colorado... Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible early in the period across parts of Oregon and southern Washington. This includes the potential for a few lightning strikes on the west side of the Cascades. By mid-morning/early afternoon the threat west of the Cascades will have likely ended. Elsewhere across the highlighted area, continued thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon. The greatest chance of scattered coverage appears to be in the Wasatch Range vicinity, though PWAT near 1 inch increases the likelihood of wetting rainfall. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Friday. Strong wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow pattern will persist from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast on Friday. Meanwhile, the western upper ridge will shift east over the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by Saturday morning. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly deep layer flow from the central High Plains to the Ozarks. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a cold front moves offshore the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The western portion of the front, extending across the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains will stall and become diffuse, with limited moisture along the boundary, except across the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks. South-southeasterly low level flow will maintains 60s dewpoints as far west as far eastern CO and the TX/NM border, with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s to upper 50s across the High Plains from southeast WY into eastern NM. ...Central/Southern High Plains into KS/OK... Severe potential across OK/KS is somewhat uncertain. Most guidance depicts ongoing convection associated with a shortwave impulse ejecting across KS into MO Friday morning. The extent of this convection and its evolution through the morning hours will be a main driver for severe potential across central/eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX or as far east as northwest AR. If enough heating and destabilization can occur ahead of this convection or in the vicinity of associated outflow, a threat for damaging winds is possible over parts of the southern Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Additionally, cloud cover across KS could limit convection for most of the period. Given the degree of uncertainty and influence of prior day's convection, have opted for a broad Marginal risk area, which may need adjustments going forward as convective evolution hopefully become more clear with time. Further west, moist upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak to moderate destabilization in the I-25 corridor eastward into southeast WY and eastern CO/NM. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain as subtle forcing increases as a shortwave impulse migrates across the central Rockies. Flow below 500 mb will be rather weak, but strong upper level northwesterly winds atop low level southeasterly winds will result in 30-45 kt effective shear. As storms move east off higher terrain, this will allow for organization/maintenance as they tap into better moisture and instability. Midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will support severe hail in the strongest cells. Afternoon temperatures will not be as warm as previous days, but a well-mixed sub-cloud layer could support a few strong wind gusts. A modest low level jet may develop during the evening/overnight and a marginally severe cluster or two of storms could shift east into parts of southwest NE/western KS and perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles/western OK. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Friday. Strong wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow pattern will persist from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast on Friday. Meanwhile, the western upper ridge will shift east over the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by Saturday morning. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly deep layer flow from the central High Plains to the Ozarks. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a cold front moves offshore the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The western portion of the front, extending across the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains will stall and become diffuse, with limited moisture along the boundary, except across the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks. South-southeasterly low level flow will maintains 60s dewpoints as far west as far eastern CO and the TX/NM border, with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s to upper 50s across the High Plains from southeast WY into eastern NM. ...Central/Southern High Plains into KS/OK... Severe potential across OK/KS is somewhat uncertain. Most guidance depicts ongoing convection associated with a shortwave impulse ejecting across KS into MO Friday morning. The extent of this convection and its evolution through the morning hours will be a main driver for severe potential across central/eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX or as far east as northwest AR. If enough heating and destabilization can occur ahead of this convection or in the vicinity of associated outflow, a threat for damaging winds is possible over parts of the southern Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Additionally, cloud cover across KS could limit convection for most of the period. Given the degree of uncertainty and influence of prior day's convection, have opted for a broad Marginal risk area, which may need adjustments going forward as convective evolution hopefully become more clear with time. Further west, moist upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak to moderate destabilization in the I-25 corridor eastward into southeast WY and eastern CO/NM. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain as subtle forcing increases as a shortwave impulse migrates across the central Rockies. Flow below 500 mb will be rather weak, but strong upper level northwesterly winds atop low level southeasterly winds will result in 30-45 kt effective shear. As storms move east off higher terrain, this will allow for organization/maintenance as they tap into better moisture and instability. Midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will support severe hail in the strongest cells. Afternoon temperatures will not be as warm as previous days, but a well-mixed sub-cloud layer could support a few strong wind gusts. A modest low level jet may develop during the evening/overnight and a marginally severe cluster or two of storms could shift east into parts of southwest NE/western KS and perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles/western OK. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Friday. Strong wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow pattern will persist from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast on Friday. Meanwhile, the western upper ridge will shift east over the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by Saturday morning. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly deep layer flow from the central High Plains to the Ozarks. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a cold front moves offshore the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The western portion of the front, extending across the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains will stall and become diffuse, with limited moisture along the boundary, except across the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks. South-southeasterly low level flow will maintains 60s dewpoints as far west as far eastern CO and the TX/NM border, with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s to upper 50s across the High Plains from southeast WY into eastern NM. ...Central/Southern High Plains into KS/OK... Severe potential across OK/KS is somewhat uncertain. Most guidance depicts ongoing convection associated with a shortwave impulse ejecting across KS into MO Friday morning. The extent of this convection and its evolution through the morning hours will be a main driver for severe potential across central/eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX or as far east as northwest AR. If enough heating and destabilization can occur ahead of this convection or in the vicinity of associated outflow, a threat for damaging winds is possible over parts of the southern Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Additionally, cloud cover across KS could limit convection for most of the period. Given the degree of uncertainty and influence of prior day's convection, have opted for a broad Marginal risk area, which may need adjustments going forward as convective evolution hopefully become more clear with time. Further west, moist upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak to moderate destabilization in the I-25 corridor eastward into southeast WY and eastern CO/NM. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain as subtle forcing increases as a shortwave impulse migrates across the central Rockies. Flow below 500 mb will be rather weak, but strong upper level northwesterly winds atop low level southeasterly winds will result in 30-45 kt effective shear. As storms move east off higher terrain, this will allow for organization/maintenance as they tap into better moisture and instability. Midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will support severe hail in the strongest cells. Afternoon temperatures will not be as warm as previous days, but a well-mixed sub-cloud layer could support a few strong wind gusts. A modest low level jet may develop during the evening/overnight and a marginally severe cluster or two of storms could shift east into parts of southwest NE/western KS and perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles/western OK. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Friday. Strong wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow pattern will persist from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast on Friday. Meanwhile, the western upper ridge will shift east over the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by Saturday morning. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly deep layer flow from the central High Plains to the Ozarks. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a cold front moves offshore the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The western portion of the front, extending across the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains will stall and become diffuse, with limited moisture along the boundary, except across the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks. South-southeasterly low level flow will maintains 60s dewpoints as far west as far eastern CO and the TX/NM border, with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s to upper 50s across the High Plains from southeast WY into eastern NM. ...Central/Southern High Plains into KS/OK... Severe potential across OK/KS is somewhat uncertain. Most guidance depicts ongoing convection associated with a shortwave impulse ejecting across KS into MO Friday morning. The extent of this convection and its evolution through the morning hours will be a main driver for severe potential across central/eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX or as far east as northwest AR. If enough heating and destabilization can occur ahead of this convection or in the vicinity of associated outflow, a threat for damaging winds is possible over parts of the southern Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Additionally, cloud cover across KS could limit convection for most of the period. Given the degree of uncertainty and influence of prior day's convection, have opted for a broad Marginal risk area, which may need adjustments going forward as convective evolution hopefully become more clear with time. Further west, moist upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak to moderate destabilization in the I-25 corridor eastward into southeast WY and eastern CO/NM. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain as subtle forcing increases as a shortwave impulse migrates across the central Rockies. Flow below 500 mb will be rather weak, but strong upper level northwesterly winds atop low level southeasterly winds will result in 30-45 kt effective shear. As storms move east off higher terrain, this will allow for organization/maintenance as they tap into better moisture and instability. Midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will support severe hail in the strongest cells. Afternoon temperatures will not be as warm as previous days, but a well-mixed sub-cloud layer could support a few strong wind gusts. A modest low level jet may develop during the evening/overnight and a marginally severe cluster or two of storms could shift east into parts of southwest NE/western KS and perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles/western OK. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Leitman.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and hail threat will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains east-northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes today with the southern extension of the trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s F ahead of the front will contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon. A pronounced increase in low-level convergence along the front in the mid to late afternoon is forecast to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Several short line segments appear likely to develop along the front and move southeastward across the warm sector. RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the front from near Omaha to near Chicago at 00Z/Friday generally show MLCAPE values in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear values along this corridor are forecast to range from 35-40 kt at Omaha to near 50 kt at Chicago. This environment will likely support a severe threat. Wind damage will be possible with the more organized line segments. Hail is expected to be the lesser threat mainly due to warm mid-level temperatures and sub-optimal lapse rates. Further west into the central High Plains, instability is forecast to drop off with westward extent. This combined with convective coverage issues will probably keep any severe threat isolated during the late afternoon and early evening. Instability is also forecast to be problematic across lower Michigan. This should help to keep any severe threat marginal there as well. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and hail threat will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains east-northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes today with the southern extension of the trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s F ahead of the front will contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon. A pronounced increase in low-level convergence along the front in the mid to late afternoon is forecast to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Several short line segments appear likely to develop along the front and move southeastward across the warm sector. RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the front from near Omaha to near Chicago at 00Z/Friday generally show MLCAPE values in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear values along this corridor are forecast to range from 35-40 kt at Omaha to near 50 kt at Chicago. This environment will likely support a severe threat. Wind damage will be possible with the more organized line segments. Hail is expected to be the lesser threat mainly due to warm mid-level temperatures and sub-optimal lapse rates. Further west into the central High Plains, instability is forecast to drop off with westward extent. This combined with convective coverage issues will probably keep any severe threat isolated during the late afternoon and early evening. Instability is also forecast to be problematic across lower Michigan. This should help to keep any severe threat marginal there as well. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and hail threat will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains east-northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes today with the southern extension of the trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s F ahead of the front will contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon. A pronounced increase in low-level convergence along the front in the mid to late afternoon is forecast to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Several short line segments appear likely to develop along the front and move southeastward across the warm sector. RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the front from near Omaha to near Chicago at 00Z/Friday generally show MLCAPE values in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear values along this corridor are forecast to range from 35-40 kt at Omaha to near 50 kt at Chicago. This environment will likely support a severe threat. Wind damage will be possible with the more organized line segments. Hail is expected to be the lesser threat mainly due to warm mid-level temperatures and sub-optimal lapse rates. Further west into the central High Plains, instability is forecast to drop off with westward extent. This combined with convective coverage issues will probably keep any severe threat isolated during the late afternoon and early evening. Instability is also forecast to be problematic across lower Michigan. This should help to keep any severe threat marginal there as well. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/29/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and hail threat will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains east-northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes today with the southern extension of the trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s F ahead of the front will contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon. A pronounced increase in low-level convergence along the front in the mid to late afternoon is forecast to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Several short line segments appear likely to develop along the front and move southeastward across the warm sector. RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the front from near Omaha to near Chicago at 00Z/Friday generally show MLCAPE values in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear values along this corridor are forecast to range from 35-40 kt at Omaha to near 50 kt at Chicago. This environment will likely support a severe threat. Wind damage will be possible with the more organized line segments. Hail is expected to be the lesser threat mainly due to warm mid-level temperatures and sub-optimal lapse rates. Further west into the central High Plains, instability is forecast to drop off with westward extent. This combined with convective coverage issues will probably keep any severe threat isolated during the late afternoon and early evening. Instability is also forecast to be problematic across lower Michigan. This should help to keep any severe threat marginal there as well. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/29/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development, some having strong wind gusts, will continue to take place this evening into the overnight period in the lower Mississippi Valley, northeast Texas Panhandle and in the Desert Southwest. ...Northeast Texas Panhandle/Northwest Oklahoma... The latest 500 mb heights and vorticity analyzed by the RAP shows a vorticity maximum near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorm development has occurred over the last hour over the northeastern Texas Panhandle just ahead of the vort max where large-scale ascent is maximized. Although the environment has been supportive of a marginal severe threat due to MLCAPE estimated near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 40 kt, the cell that was previously severe has weakened significantly over the last 15-20 minutes. This trend is expected to continue this evening and there will be no need to add a marginal risk area for this outlook. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2019 Read more