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MD 2054 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2054 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...far northwest Iowa...southern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 211633Z - 212030Z SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour is expected to increase through the late morning and early afternoon from the mid Missouri River Valley to the upper Mississippi River Valley. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics from the past 1-3 hours show an elongated zone of increasing reflectivity values from eastern SD to southern MN. This is likely in response to strengthening isentropic ascent in the 925-700 mb layer within a broad warm frontal zone draped across the region. This mesoscale ascent is augmenting more broad, synoptic lift ahead of an approaching shortwave trough over the northern Plains, and is supporting an increase in coverage of moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates per latest surface observations and regional web cams. Latest guidance suggests that this trend should continue through at least early afternoon as the synoptic low continues east/southeast and saturation of the lowest 1-2 km continues. Forecast soundings indicate that much of the low/mid-level ascent coincides with a ~100 mb deep dendritic growth zone, which will favor efficient snow production and the potential for heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour. The current warm advection regime over eastern SD/southern MN will likely support periods of broken snow bands through the early afternoon (which appears probable based on latest reflectivity trends), and this may yield localized higher snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour. The approach of the mid-level cold front later this afternoon may maintain the potential for localized banding via frontogenetical processes. ..Moore.. 12/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45649472 45919387 45959300 45809240 45299199 44759199 44179265 43729372 43059523 42879587 42899669 43129722 43519746 44169712 44959611 45649472 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will amplify over the central CONUS, as an intense mid/upper-level speed max overspreads the western states. The strong midlevel flow (60-75 kt at 500 mb) perpendicular to the central Rockies will support a deepening lee cyclone over eastern CO during the afternoon, before a strong cold front advances southward across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains into the overnight hours. ...I-25 Corridor in south-central CO into northeast NM... As the aforementioned mid/upper-level speed max intercepts the central/southern Rockies, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with 40-50 mph gusts) should develop in the immediate lee of the high terrain from south-central CO into northeast NM. Here, strong downslope warming/drying should yield 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon. The combination of strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will support elevated conditions, primarily along the I-25 corridor during the afternoon hours. While locally critical conditions are possible (especially through gap-flow areas), these conditions are too localized for Critical highlights. Strong/gusty winds and low RH are also expected north of the Elevated area along the Front Range foothills in north-central CO, though the localized nature of these conditions precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning surface observations and satellite imagery reveal a cold front meandering southward along the FL peninsula with a weak, broad surface low off the FL east coast. Despite somewhat weak inhibition sampled in the MFL and KEY RAOBs, subsidence overspreading the region (evident in low-level water-vapor imagery) has stunted any convective development thus far. However, daytime heating should foster gradual destabilization through the day, and weak forcing along the front may be adequate for isolated convection across south FL. While strong mid to upper-level flow will continue to support nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, weak CAPE profiles of the most-unstable layer coupled with increasing mid-level dry air suggests updraft strengths will remain modest and will limit the potential for organized severe convection. The low off the FL coast is expected to shift north into the Carolinas during the overnight hours in response to increasing 850-700 mb warm advection. Warming, saturation, and lift within this layer will steepen mid-level lapse rates and support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development overnight across the Carolinas. Deeper, more robust convection appears most probable along the SC coast where warmer low-level temperatures will support deeper parcel trajectories and effective shear values near 30 knots. A few instances of small hail and/or strong wind gusts are possible, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain low. ..Moore/Grams.. 12/21/2022 Read more

More than 70% of the cotton in the Texas Panhandle and South Plains failed in 2022 for one of the worst cotton production seasons since the 1950s, per the Plains Cotton Growers, a nonprofit organization of cotton producers from a 41-county region in the northernmost part of the state. The effect of the lower cotton production will be felt throughout the economy. The Texas Tribune (Austin), Dec 21, 2022 Planting season for cotton in West Texas ended just a short while ago, but it was already apparent that drought has taken a serious toll on the crop. The majority of the region's dryland cotton, and even some irrigated acres, have already failed this season, already bringing lower numbers to production, according to Plains Cotton Growers director of policy and analysis. While there were about 4.5 million acres in production last year, this year, he expected that the acreage would be half or less. With peak blooming season ahead, about 60% of the state’s remaining cotton acreage was in “fair” or better condition. Rainfall could improve crops still, but long-term forecasts do not indicate a high likelihood of rain in the Southern Plains. Abilene Reporter News (Texas), July 25, 2022

Almond growers in California struggled with drought, supply issues and inflation this year. The oversupply of almonds led some growers to reduce acreage by 25,000 acres the previous month, according to Land IQ. KERO-TV ABC 23 Bakersfield-Turn to 23 (Bakersfield, Calif.), Dec 19, 2022

A sunken ship has emerged from the water of Great Salt Lake in Utah as drought lowered the water level. The vessel was previously a part of the Southern Pacific Railroad fleet and was used to construct the Lucin Cutoff, a railroad trestle across the lake from Ogden to Lucin. The vessel carried men to and from the work site and also was used to move barges. ABC4 (Salt Lake City, Utah), Dec 20, 2022

As many as 90 water stations will be installed in the Mojave Desert, Chuckwalla Valley area and elsewhere to provide water for bighorn sheep as drought saps water supplies and hinders the growth of vegetation. Without enough water supplies throughout the area, herds’ movement may be limited, which could lead to inbreeding and other problems. The Associated Press (New York), Dec 14, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z The main change made in the Day 2 fire weather outlook update was to trim the northern extent of the Elevated area to account for snow cover over parts of the region. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will amplify across the central CONUS, as an intense mid/upper-level speed max dives southeastward across the western states. As the strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow impinges on the central Rockies, a lee cyclone will deepen over eastern CO, before a strong cold front overspreads the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains into the overnight hours. ...I-25 Corridor in south-central CO and northeast NM... As the strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow (60-75+ kt at 500-mb) intercepts the central/southern Rockies, strong/gusty surface winds should develop in the immediate lee of the higher terrain from CO into NM. While cool surface temperatures in north-central CO should generally limit the fire-weather threat, downslope warming/drying amid a slightly warmer airmass should yield lower/middle 50s surface temperatures along the I-25 corridor from south-central CO into northeast NM. Here, the strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 20-25 percent minimum RH, should favor locally elevated conditions during the afternoon. Given below-normal precipitation during the last 15-30 days through this corridor (and at least modestly receptive fuels), Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 20 18:15:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 20 18:15:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weak mid-level disturbance will move from FL and coastal GA/SC into the western Atlantic Wednesday morning. Rich low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a surface front that will be draped across the central/southern FL Peninsula. While isolated thunderstorms may occur across this region through the day, the lack of appreciable large-scale ascent aloft should limit overall convective coverage. A prominent upper trough is forecast to amplify further Wednesday across a broad part of the central CONUS as it translates eastward. A leading shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper trough should move quickly across the southern/central Plains to the Southeast and OH Valley through the period. Surface ridging centered over the East Coast will be slow to erode through Wednesday night. This should inhibit the return of appreciable low-level moisture inland across coastal SC. But, enough elevated instability may coincide with increasing forcing for ascent to support occasional thunderstorms late Wednesday night over parts of SC. ..Gleason.. 12/20/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FL KEYS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... While severe storms are unlikely, a severe wind gust is possible across the Florida Keys vicinity this evening. ...FL Keys... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along a weak baroclinic/convergence zone over the western FL Straits, south and west of the Keys, should spread east-northeast into this evening towards the coastal waters adjacent to the southern tip of the peninsula. Farther west, an MCS across the east-central Gulf should persist east-southeast along the baroclinic zone, but weaken as it moves east of the Loop Current. The 12Z KEY sounding sampled weak, near-moist-adiabatic lapse rates that are not expected to steepen during the period, which will limit updraft strength. In addition, low-level winds should remain modest, yielding only minor enhancement to the low-level hodograph. The bulk of deep-layer shear contribution will be from strengthening winds above 700 mb. Overall setup suggests convection this evening will most likely remain sub-severe and weaken with approach to land over the Keys and adjacent portion of the southern Everglades. ..Grams/Moore.. 12/20/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... A continental polar airmass characterized by cold surface temperatures will encompass much of the western and central CONUS. As a result, fire-weather concerns will generally be minimal on Tuesday, despite locally dry/breezy conditions over parts of the central and southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought was milder in Minnesota this year, but the cattle sales continued. Brownfield Online (Jefferson City, Mo.), Dec 12, 2022

Despite the lack of moisture in the Missouri to activate herbicides, there was not too much extra week pressure. In drought areas, there were some weeds that were not well-controlled. Weed emergence is expected to be a challenge in the next growing season. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Dec 17, 2022

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will continue to spread from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast states. Though small hail is possible, severe weather remains unlikely over land. Surface observations along the Gulf Coast continue to show a rather stable air mass for surface-based parcels, with the best instability well offshore into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Though a tight instability gradient will exist near the surface low, it is unlikely that this better air mass will reach shore. To the north, modest elevated instability and moderate deep-layer effective shear may support a few embedded storms capable of small hail through tonight, but hail over 1.00" diameter appears unlikely across Texas and Louisiana. ..Jewell.. 12/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning regional radar mosaics show a broad region of elevated convection across the TX coastal plain into central LA driven primarily by deep isentropic ascent in the 925-850 mb layer. Along the immediate TX Gulf Coast, surface observations suggest a small zone of warm/moist air (temperatures and dewpoint in the mid 60s) is in place that is supportive of surface-based convection. However, this air mass is expected to largely remain offshore over the next 24 hours as a weak surface low, currently off the Corpus Christi coast, translates east/northeast through the day. The broad zone of precipitation across east TX/LA will reinforce the coastal baroclinic zone, limiting the potential for surface-based buoyancy over land. Given somewhat strong speed shear in the 3-6 km layer, organized elevated convection is possible across portions of the TX coastal plain, mostly likely during the 17-20 UTC period when storm modes are most likely to be discrete before eventual upscale growth/increasing storm interactions within the warm advection regime. Small, sub-severe hail is possible with these storms, but the potential for 1+ inch hail appears sufficiently limited to withhold probabilities. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 19 19:39:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 19 19:39:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain minimal for Tuesday. Localized dry and windy conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the Rockies from northern NM through CO and into southern WY. However, the potential for elevated or critical wind/RH over receptive fuels remains low. ..Moore.. 12/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal on Tuesday, as cold surface temperatures accompanying a continental polar airmass infiltrate much of the western and central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more