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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible today over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...FL... A large upper low is in place today over much of the CONUS, with the primary surface cold front sagging southward into the FL peninsula and southeast states. A line of intense thunderstorms along/ahead of the front will move into central FL this afternoon, where rich low level moisture and considerable low-level vertical shear is present. Several of these storms have shown supercell/bowing structures offshore, and also as they have moved inland this morning. This scenario will likely continue through at least early afternoon, before a gradual weakening of wind fields diminishes the severe threat. Please refer to MCD #2045 for further short-term details. ...GA/SC/NC... The main surface cold front extends from the western Carolinas into east GA. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will maintain dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, along with marginal CAPE. While the thermodynamic environment appears weak, very strong low and mid-level winds/shear suggest a risk of brief organization of any deep convection that can be maintained. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out until the front moves offshore late this afternoon or early evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 12/15/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the stalled upper-level cyclone over the Midwest, a cold front is forecast to move south over much of the western US and Plains Thursday. Surface high pressure behind the front will keep winds light and temperatures much colder through the remainder of the forecast period. Fuels have also moderated, suggesting low potential for large fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Water users in the Upper Colorado River states of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico could participate in a conservation program that would pay water users to reduce the amount of water used from the river. The aim is to have the program operating in the 2023 summer. The Upper Colorado River Commission released its 5-Point Plan in July 2022, aiming to guard critical water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The first action in that plan was to resume the System Conservation Pilot Program, which was active from 2015 to 2018 and paid water users to use less. Farmers, ranchers, cities, tribes, irrigation districts or industrial users who can show that they have a project that can reduce their water use may be able to participate. Aspen Journalism (Colo.), Dec 10, 2022

Just one Christmas tree farm in Calaveras County was open for business this season, selling the big trees that the area is known for as warm temperatures, drought and wildfires took a toll on other area tree farms. Rain and snowfall used to provide all of the moisture that newly planted trees needed, but these days far fewer seedlings survive on precipitation alone. The dearth of rain has made it much harder for trees to grow, especially white fir and silvertip fir trees, which usually grow up to 1 foot per year but were now growing just 2 to 3 inches, according to a grower. He also noted that the dry trees cannot produce pitch, or sap that is used to repel pests. Calaveras Enterprise (Calif.) , Dec. 8, 2022

A rancher in Lyman, Neb., reported that his first cutting of hay was just 25% of normal, although he normally gets 2 ¼ to 2 ½ tons per acre from the hay pivot, but instead got about 1/3 of a ton per acre. He has about 450 acres of hay and about 380 acres of grass. With little rain since spring, many farmers and ranchers did not have much feed in pastures for cattle. The Scotts Bluff County rancher also noted that they only received about 85% of the usual amount of water in 2022. When the irrigation season was opened, there was not enough water to run the pivots as usual. Every third sprinkler had to be turned off in order to be able to run the pivots. The scarcity of hay has driven up prices to $220 or more per ton, when the hay sold for $150 one year ago or $90 three years ago. The high prices have forced many cattle and horse operations to sell a portion or all of the herd. Torrington Telegram (Wyo.), Dec. 14, 2022

The Flaming Gorge Reservoir may remain low for the near future, according to federal officials, leaving several boat ramps and docks out of the water and the shorelines exposed. An additional 500,000 acre-feet of water will be released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir through April to support hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. In addition to Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa in Colorado and Navajo in New Mexico are also backup sources and could be called upon to release water. Water levels at Flaming Gorge have been fairly regular for decades, but were at just 72% of capacity in November after an extra 125,000 acre-feet release in 2021 and the present “extra” release of 500,000 acre-feet from December 2022 through April 2023. In addition, runoff to refill Flaming Gorge has been lower than average at just 57% from April through July. The lower water level makes it more difficult for boat launching. The ramp at the Anvil boat launch area on the west side of the reservoir in Wyoming was closed not too long ago. Wyoming Business Report (Cheyenne, Wyo.), Dec 14, 2022

Officials with the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California declared a regional drought emergency and urged all water agencies to immediately curb use of all imported water. Previously the MWD’s board announced a similar emergency for 7 million people who rely on the State Water Project which delivers water from Northern California. Now the drought emergency also includes customers whose water comes from the Colorado River. The call for conservation could become mandatory if drought continues. By April, the MWD will consider allocating water to all of its 26 member agencies, forcing them to either use less imported water or pay steep additional fees. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), Dec 14, 2022

MD 2032 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 588... FOR SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...EASTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Areas affected...Southern MS...Southwest AL...Eastern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 588... Valid 141920Z - 142045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for strong, long-track tornadoes continues. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show numerous discrete supercells, including a few which have rotational velocity around 40 to 50 kt. The overall environment remain very conducive to tornadic supercells with ample low-level moisture and buoyancy in the presence of strong low to mid-level flow. Recent KLIX VAD data shows increasing winds in the 1-2 km layer. This increase is likely due to a mesoscale low-level jet, which is expected to move northeastward across far southern MS and into southwest AL over the next several hours. Attendant strengthening of the low-level shear within this corridor could augment the already favorable conditions. Surface observations also numerous gusts of 25 to 30 kt across southeast LA. Additionally, ongoing storms will likely strengthen as they approach and interact the warm front, which now extends from about 50 miles northwest of MEI southeastward to south of GZH in southern AL. In all, the threat for strong, long-track tornadoes will continue for at least the next few hours across eastern LA and southern MS, eventually reaching southwest AL later this afternoon/early this evening. ..Mosier/Hart.. 12/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 32069040 32588997 32708948 32388832 31668781 30948824 30728862 30378922 29628998 29579157 32069040 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0588 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 588 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 141825Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Southeast Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous supercell thunderstorms have formed and will affect portions of the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Strong winds aloft and ample instability will pose a risk of several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Houma LA to 25 miles northeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...COASTAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of southern Georgia into northern Florida Thursday morning, and through the afternoon across parts of the Florida Peninsula. A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Florida into Southern Georgia and the Carolinas... A large-scale upper cyclone encompassing much of the central and eastern CONUS will remain centered over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday. A lead mid-level perturbation is forecast to quickly shift eastward over the East Coast states/Mid-Atlantic through the day. While the primary surface low will remain over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low over GA/SC Thursday morning should develop quickly northeastward across the Carolinas and coastal southeastern VA by Thursday evening. A related cold front will sweep eastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas through the day. A broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of north FL into GA along or just ahead of the cold front. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of this activity, and modest daytime heating should support weak instability across the FL Peninsula into coastal GA and SC. Even though the enhanced low-level flow will gradually veer and weaken through the day, it should still be sufficiently strong to support updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes as convection spreads eastward through the early afternoon. Scattered damaging winds may also occur before thunderstorms eventually weaken Thursday evening. Farther north, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across central/eastern NC through the day, but meager daytime heating and related instability should keep the overall severe threat rather isolated across this area. Better prospects for surface-based convection will probably remain just offshore the Outer Banks of NC. ..Gleason.. 12/14/2022 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST WED DEC 14 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Mississippi Southern Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging thunderstorm gusts are expected today and tonight across southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 12/14/2022 $$ Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone will slowly shift eastward out of the central U.S. and into the upper Midwest while slowly filling. High pressure will gradually intensify as it moves south out of Canada over the northern Plains. At the surface, weak northwesterly winds will keep temperatures cool and RH values modest. With recent precipitation and cooler temperatures, area fuels will be unfavorable for large-fire spread. Fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging thunderstorm gusts are expected today and tonight across southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle. ...Active severe weather event is anticipated this afternoon and evening for portions of the central Gulf Coast states... ...LA/MS/AL... Morning water vapor imagery shows an intense and progressive shortwave trough rotating across OK/TX. This feature is expected to become negatively tilted this evening over AR, with strong large-scale forcing overspreading much of the mid/lower MS Valley. Strong southerly low-level winds have established a very moist and potentially unstable air mass over parts of LA/MS/AL, with dewpoints in the 70s and visible satellite showing considerable breaks in the low clouds. This should result in ample CAPE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of 12z CAM guidance indicates that discrete supercell development will commence this afternoon over southeast LA into southern MS. This activity will likely persist through the evening and track into western and southern AL. Forecast soundings show very strong low-level vertical shear and favorable deep-layer shear for tornadoes, along with sufficient CAPE for robust thunderstorms. Low-level winds are expected to strengthen further during the afternoon with the approach of the upper trough. Tornadoes, including the possibility of strong and long-track tornadoes, are the primary concern today. Given the consistent signal in 12z guidance for numerous supercells, the favorable CAPE/shear environment, and the impressive nature of the shortwave trough, have opted to upgrade to MDT risk for portions of the area. ..Hart/Bentley.. 12/14/2022 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 ..BENTLEY..12/14/22 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC023-129-141740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW WASHINGTON LAC001-005-007-023-033-037-039-045-047-053-055-063-077-091-093- 095-097-099-101-103-105-113-117-121-125-141740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... As a deep upper-level cyclone slowly fills over the northern Plains, cool temperatures and higher humidity are expected across much of the southern and central High Plains. Lingering gusty northwest flow may occasionally reach 15-20 mph through the afternoon in the wake of a cold front moving east across the MS Valley. However, cooler temperatures and increasing moisture will limit diurnal RH minimums. In addition, recent precipitation has tempered area fuels such that large-fire spread is unlikely. Thus, fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2015 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 582... FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 2015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Areas affected...East/Southeast TX...Northwest LA...Southern AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 582... Valid 131933Z - 132130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards continues across Tornado Watch 582. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely be needed across southern AR, northwest LA, and east/southeast TX. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about 20 miles east of PRX, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through central TX. A warm front also extends southeastward from this low through northwest and central LA (delineated well by the 65 deg F isodrosotherm). Thunderstorm activity along the cold front has weakened over the last hour or so, while showers have increased throughout the warm sector. Most of these warm sector showers have not strengthened significantly. However, very recent trends have signaled some strengthening with the storms in Anderson, Houston, and Robertson Counties, evidenced by increasing reflectivity and lightning activity. Given their placement in the warm sector, some additional strengthen/maturing into supercells is possible. The warm front is expected to continue slowly lifting northward while the cold front advances eastward. This will take the warm sector farther east into more of east/southeast TX, northwest LA, and southern AR through this evening. As such an additional Tornado Watch will be needed for portions of the region within the next hour or so. Given the favorable parameter space, PDS wording is being considered. ..Mosier/Hart.. 12/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30739640 31859603 33499430 33859288 33259214 30999352 30249529 30739640 Read more

MD 2015 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 582... FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 2015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Areas affected...East/Southeast TX...Northwest LA...Southern AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 582... Valid 131933Z - 132130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards continues across Tornado Watch 582. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely be needed across southern AR, northwest LA, and east/southeast TX. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about 20 miles east of PRX, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through central TX. A warm front also extends southeastward from this low through northwest and central LA (delineated well by the 65 deg F isodrosotherm). Thunderstorm activity along the cold front has weakened over the last hour or so, while showers have increased throughout the warm sector. Most of these warm sector showers have not strengthened significantly. However, very recent trends have signaled some strengthening with the storms in Anderson, Houston, and Robertson Counties, evidenced by increasing reflectivity and lightning activity. Given their placement in the warm sector, some additional strengthen/maturing into supercells is possible. The warm front is expected to continue slowly lifting northward while the cold front advances eastward. This will take the warm sector farther east into more of east/southeast TX, northwest LA, and southern AR through this evening. As such an additional Tornado Watch will be needed for portions of the region within the next hour or so. Given the favorable parameter space, PDS wording is being considered. ..Mosier/Hart.. 12/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30739640 31859603 33499430 33859288 33259214 30999352 30249529 30739640 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W TPL TO 30 W CRS TO 15 N CRS TO 30 WNW TYR TO 25 NNE DEQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 ..MOSIER..12/13/22 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...TSA...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC057-061-081-091-109-113-133-131940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER PIKE POLK SEVIER TXC001-037-063-067-073-145-159-161-183-203-213-225-289-293-309- 313-315-343-349-365-395-401-423-449-455-459-499-131940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP CASS CHEROKEE FALLS FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MARION MORRIS NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON Read more