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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, zonal flow is forecast to continue across the Rockies and southern High Plains D2/Sat. A shortwave trough will move eastward onto the Plains with shortwave ridging developing over the Rockies through the day. At the surface, a cold front will move out of the higher terrain bringing cooler conditions into eastern CO and western KS. Ahead of the front, weak downslope flow may occasionally gust upwards of 15 mph over modestly dry fuels. While localized fire concerns may exist for a few hours, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is too low to introduce highlights. Elsewhere, fire concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 9 18:30:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 9 18:30:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains from Saturday morning into early Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from northwest Mexico/southern AZ eastward through the southern High Plans and much of the southern Plains on Saturday. At the same time, an upper low is forecast to drop southward to the Pacific Northwest Coast as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through its western and southern periphery. An additional shortwave should move from the northern Plains eastward through the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, moisture return is anticipated across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley ahead of the approaching southern-stream shortwave. A surface low will likely be centered over south-central OK early Saturday, before then pushing eastward across southeast OK and southern AR. As it does, an associated cold front is expected to progress gradually southeastward across TX. Resulting increasing buoyancy coupled with strengthening wind fields and lift will contribute to some severe risk across the southern Plains. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible from the southwest OR coast into central CA and west-central NV where cold mid-level temperatures and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent will align. ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across central and eastern OK early Saturday, north of the low and attendant cold front. These showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish as the low-level jet weakens, with additional activity expected to develop farther west in the vicinity of the front across southwest/south-central OK and north TX. Much of this activity will be elevated north of the front, but instability and shear are expected to be strong enough to support a low-probability hail threat. Isolated thunderstorm development within the warm sector is possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning as the shortwave moves closer and large-scale ascent strengthens. Southerly/southeasterly surface winds will result in curved low-level hodographs, but the overall magnitude will remain low due to modest low-level flow. Even so, a few more organized storms are possible, with an attendant threat of damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday. ...Synopsis... Several mid-level shortwave troughs are present amid a progressive mid-level pattern across the western two-thirds of the CONUS. A weakening mid-level trough will advance across the southern Great Lakes through the day today with a larger trough advancing across the Rockies in its wake. Additionally, another trough is approaching the West Coast which will bring moderate/heavy valley rain and mountain snow. As the mid-level trough over the Great Basin this morning advances into the Plains tonight, a low-level jet is expected to strengthen across the southern High Plains. As warm air advection strengthens and moisture increases, expect thunderstorms to develop across Oklahoma, mostly after 03Z and expand east-northeastward through the overnight period and into Saturday morning. Thunderstorm chances will increase along the northwest California/ southwest Oregon coast after 06Z as the trough advances east and colder air aloft overspreads relatively moist low level conditions. These thunderstorms may start to spread further inland closer to 12Z as the upper-level trough continues to advance east. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, active mid-level flow is expected to remain in place today as a shortwave trough crosses the southern and central Rockies onto the High Plains. In response to increasing westerly flow aloft, downslope winds across proportions of southern CO and northern NM may occasionally reach 15-20 mph through the afternoon. While not overly warm, temperatures in the 40s and 50s F along with downslope drying and occasional stronger wind gusts may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather potential from the Front Range into northern NM. However, relatively modest fuels and the limited overlap of gusty winds and dry surface conditions should limit the duration of any threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought and the overpumping of wells have led to record numbers of domestic wells running dry in California. This year alone 1,391 wells were reported as going dry, almost a 40% increase over the same time last year, and the highest annual number reported since 2013, when the California Department of Water Resources. Since reporting is voluntary, the actual number of dry wells is likely higher than reported. The well failures were highest in Fresno, Madera, Tulare and Tehama counties. About 1,600 households were receiving water assistance and another couple hundred were relying on community water tanks. Some residents in the Central Valley have used water from temporary storage tanks for more than five years. About half of the 3,700 wells monitored by the state were either below normal, much below normal or at a record low. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), Dec 8, 2022

Residents of Bartlesville were asked to conserve water as drought has reduced the amount of water held in three lakes from which the city draws its water. Some people were frustrated at being asked to conserve. KRMG AM-740 & FM-102.3 (Tulsa, Okla.), Dec 8, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Thu Dec 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... The potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low for Friday across the CONUS, but localized fire weather conditions may develop for parts of eastern Colorado. The upper disturbance currently approaching the Plains will quickly be followed by upper ridging across the central U.S. on Friday. Height falls across the Southwest will support increasing flow over the central Rockies with modest lee troughing in response. 15 mph southerly winds may occasionally gust up to 20-25 mph from northeast NM into eastern CO and far western KS where fine fuels remain dry. No appreciable moisture return will maintain dry conditions with afternoon RH values in the 15-25% range. Consequently, localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable where dry conditions can overlap with breezier winds. However, confidence in the spatial coverage and duration of elevated conditions remains too limited due to uncertainty in wind magnitudes, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 8 18:45:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 8 18:45:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the central states on Friday. The lead disturbance will move from IA/MO and weaken as it moves to the Lake Erie vicinity. An upstream mid-level trough will move from the Interior West east-northeastward into the northern and central Great Plains by early Saturday. At the surface, a front will be draped from west Texas through the lower MS Valley and AL/GA. Low-level moisture will increase over parts of northwest TX/OK late in the period as showers/thunderstorms become more common Friday night. Weak buoyancy and the lack of stronger forcing will very likely limit thunderstorm intensity and any risk for severe thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 12/08/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Morning satellite analysis shows skies are clearing from west to east across eastern Colorado/Western Kansas. Clear skies and strengthening westerly winds will promote deep mixing of drier air aloft to the surface, with further drying and warming aided by strong downslope flow. Gusts around 40 mph are already being observed this morning, with further strengthening expected for the afternoon. The current Elevated area covers the threat for increased fire weather potential this afternoon. As mentioned below, localized critical conditions will be possible in the lee of the high terrain where the strongest winds are expected. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of southeast CO and adjacent areas of far southwest KS and far northeast NM. Latest surface observations shows weak cyclogenesis over the greater Panhandles region with modest surface pressure falls further north along the central High Plains ahead of an approaching upper wave. This surface low will consolidate across the central Plains over the next 24 hours, inducing 15-25 mph west/northwest winds off the central Rockies. Downslope warming/drying will yield RH values in the teens and low 20s over a region with dry fine fuels after little rainfall over the past 14 days. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely across southeast CO with localized critical conditions possible, especially in the immediate lee of the terrain where gusts will likely approach 35 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat appears negligible through early Friday. ...TX to TN... Morning surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary boundary extending from central TX northeastward into the TN Valley. Rich low-level moisture is present to the south of the boundary, with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s noted. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and relatively warm temperatures aloft will limit CAPE values and the overall threat of deep convection. This corridor also lies beneath general large-scale ridging, suggesting little organized lift will occur. Therefore, scattered showers but only isolated thunderstorms are expected in vicinity of the front this forecast period. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2022 Read more

The drought this summer in Connecticut was rough for Christmas tree farms. Some farms, particularly those in the eastern part of the state, lost over half of their seedlings. In the northwest, farms lost about 60% of their seedlings. Given the many seedlings lost this year to the dry conditions, growers were looking into irrigation, thinking that weather extremes may necessitate irrigation capability in the future. WTIC-TV FOX 61 Hartford (Ct.), Dec 7, 2022

November runoff into the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City was 540,000 acre-feet, or 51% of average, lowering the 2022 runoff forecast to 19.0 MAF, 74% of the average of 25.7 MAF. Months of dry weather across the upper plains have led to reduced runoff into the river and its six reservoirs, which were lower than normal for this time of year. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), Dec 7, 2022

Releases from Gavins Point Dam near Yankton, South Dakota, were at 13,000 cubic feet per second and will be reduced to the minimum winter rate of 12,000 cfs by Dec. 11, per the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Months of dry weather across the upper plains have led to reduced runoff into the river and its six reservoirs, which were lower than normal for this time of year. Water storage in the reservoir system was 46 million acre-feet, considerably below the flood control zone that begins at 56.1 MAF, which is the annual year-end target level. November runoff into the river basin above Sioux City was 540,000 acre-feet, or 51% of average, lowering the 2022 runoff forecast to 19.0 MAF, 74% of the average of 25.7 MAF. Water conservation measures in effect will continue into 2023, according to the corps, and water releases in the spring likely will be increased to provide only minimal support to navigation farther downstream. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), Dec 7, 2022