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WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-153-181-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER PULASKI UNION MOC023-133-143-181-201-207-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 623 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 261945Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwestern Illinois Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster has remained well organized across central Missouri early this afternoon, and it appears likely that the storms will persist through the afternoon while approaching the Mississippi River. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Farmington MO to 25 miles southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 622... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 262210Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify late this afternoon and early evening, initially across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with storms expanding/developing south-southeastward through the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, although a tornado cannot be ruled out particularly across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Chanute KS to 20 miles south southeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-133-145-153-157-163-181-189-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON MONROE PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION WASHINGTON MOC017-023-031-035-093-099-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-201- 207-223-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER IRON JEFFERSON MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 1871 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ILLINOIS/WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...eastern Illinois/western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262129Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A rotating storm or two may evolve within a pre-frontal band of storms evolving in the vicinity of the Illinois/Indiana border late this afternoon. WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows showers/scattered thunderstorms developing in confluent flow ahead of an advancing cold front, in a narrow axis of warm-sector instability. As the front approaches, an uptick in storm coverage may occur, with a few stronger storms possibly evolving -- aided by moderate/veering flow with height per area VWPs. The instability axis remains narrow, suggesting that any risk will remain confined, areally and temporally. Still, a locally damaging wind gusty or two could occur, and possibly even a brief tornado prior to a diurnal decrease in convection later this evening. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 40948699 40568655 39778668 38938721 38818783 38928861 39548863 40478760 40898746 40948699 Read more

MD 1870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...central/northern Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...and far southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262039Z - 262315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat should gradually evolve as storms initiate along surface boundaries on the northern/northeastern portions of the discussion area this afternoon/evening. A WW will probably be needed for this activity. DISCUSSION...Observations/satellite imagery indicate a weak surface cold front draped from eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. Additionally, an outflow boundary exists from just south of SGF northwestward to the cold front west of CNU. Ahead of these boundaries, upper 70s dewpoints and upper 90s F temperatures were contributing to extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MUCAPE) beneath steep (8-8.5 deg C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Some inhibition is also apparent across the region, though the gradually deepening character of the cumulus field over northeastern Oklahoma and near the outflow boundary in southeastern Kansas suggests that this inhibition is gradually weakening. Models/high-res guidance suggests potential for explosive development to occur along the aforementioned surface boundaries once inhibition is sufficiently removed. The timing of this development is in question, however, and may hold off through 23-00Z or so. Once storms do develop, deep shear will be sufficient for marginally organized storms, with instability supporting severe hail and wind. A brief tornado threat may exist with initial development - especially early in convective evolution where vorticity ingest can be relatively uninterrupted before cold pools can develop and mature. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential WW issuance over the next couple of hours. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38069501 38019572 37719645 37109734 36469814 35949867 35439873 35239821 35279756 35649666 36259548 36539456 36779407 36989396 37389409 37699437 37929477 38069501 Read more

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262037Z - 262130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually develop into northern AR, posing a risk for isolated damaging wind and large hail. Trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Storms over southern MO have trended more discrete with a lone storm with supercell structures approaching Taney county. The atmosphere over northern AR is moderately to strongly unstable and weakly capped with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though only one severe storm is currently in progress, additional storms could develop farther west along trailing outflow boundary. Southeasterly near surface winds veering to northwesterly, with up to 40 kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures as storms cross into northern AR. ..Dial/Thompson.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 36449315 36409227 35809146 35239152 34959272 35549320 36009368 36379353 36449315 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Greatest severe-weather threat continues along a corridor from southern Missouri to northeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Severe probs have been lowered across northern MO/northeast KS to account for more stable conditions across this region. Early-day MCS that propagated across southeast NE/northwest MO has progressed to the I-44 corridor from near SGF to VIH. An MCV appears to be evolving within this thunderstorm cluster northwest of VIH. This activity is surging southeast at roughly 35kt and sustained convection should continue into the Ozarks and southeast MO with an attendant threat for wind and some hail. In the wake of the MCS, overturned boundary layer has stabilized considerably ahead of the front from northern MO into northeast KS. Widespread clouds over eastern KS/MO should prevent parcels from reaching their convective temperatures across this region. Latest thinking is new convection should ultimately evolve near the outflow/frontal intersection over southeast KS before expanding along the front as it surges south this evening. Probabilities have been adjusted to account for this evolution. ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...MO/KS/OK through tonight... A midlevel trough over the Dakotas is in the process of evolving into a closed low near the international border. A series of embedded speed maxima will rotate through the southern periphery of the trough from NE/KS to the middle MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southeastward across KS toward OK. A weak low is expected to form near the intersection of this cold front and a separate baroclinic zone near the KS/MO border by late afternoon. This baroclinic zone will be reinforced and likely shifted south by outflow and differential heating associated with the ongoing storms near Kansas City, and the evolution of these ongoing storms pose the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon/evening across MO. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is expected in the warm sector this afternoon as surface heating occurs within a moist boundary layer (mid 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The cap is weaker with eastward extent across MO, and the ongoing storms could become rooted at the surface by early afternoon, which would suggest the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into central MO. In the wake of the ongoing convection, renewed storm development is expected 21-23z near the triple point and along the cold front near the KS/MO border, though the northward extent of the threat is uncertain given the influence of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be maximized near the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone this afternoon/evening in MO. Cross-frontal shear vectors with storm motions to the east-southeast 25-30 kt should allow semi-discrete storms for a couple of hours late this afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Otherwise, cell mergers should lead to upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Damaging winds will become a primary threat with the clusters/line segments in an environment favoring strong downdrafts, and the threat for wind damage will persist into the early overnight hours. Weaker forcing for ascent and a warmer elevated mixed layer will tend to delay storm initiation until this evening farther southwest along the cold front into northern OK. Wind profiles will be sufficient for marginal supercells and/or organized clusters capable of producing isolated large hail. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given steep low-level lapse rates, large DCAPE, and precipitation loading with updrafts in a large CAPE environment. ...IL/IN this afternoon... A lead shortwave trough will eject northeastward from IL toward northern IN and Lower MI and weaken this afternoon, along with an accompanying surface cyclone in northern IL. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are present in the warm sector of the cyclone, though widespread clouds will tend to slow surface heating. There is some potential for renewed storm development this afternoon in a broken band across eastern IL into northwestern IN, where low-level shear will be marginally favorable for supercells and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Greatest severe-weather threat continues along a corridor from southern Missouri to northeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Severe probs have been lowered across northern MO/northeast KS to account for more stable conditions across this region. Early-day MCS that propagated across southeast NE/northwest MO has progressed to the I-44 corridor from near SGF to VIH. An MCV appears to be evolving within this thunderstorm cluster northwest of VIH. This activity is surging southeast at roughly 35kt and sustained convection should continue into the Ozarks and southeast MO with an attendant threat for wind and some hail. In the wake of the MCS, overturned boundary layer has stabilized considerably ahead of the front from northern MO into northeast KS. Widespread clouds over eastern KS/MO should prevent parcels from reaching their convective temperatures across this region. Latest thinking is new convection should ultimately evolve near the outflow/frontal intersection over southeast KS before expanding along the front as it surges south this evening. Probabilities have been adjusted to account for this evolution. ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...MO/KS/OK through tonight... A midlevel trough over the Dakotas is in the process of evolving into a closed low near the international border. A series of embedded speed maxima will rotate through the southern periphery of the trough from NE/KS to the middle MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southeastward across KS toward OK. A weak low is expected to form near the intersection of this cold front and a separate baroclinic zone near the KS/MO border by late afternoon. This baroclinic zone will be reinforced and likely shifted south by outflow and differential heating associated with the ongoing storms near Kansas City, and the evolution of these ongoing storms pose the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon/evening across MO. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is expected in the warm sector this afternoon as surface heating occurs within a moist boundary layer (mid 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The cap is weaker with eastward extent across MO, and the ongoing storms could become rooted at the surface by early afternoon, which would suggest the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into central MO. In the wake of the ongoing convection, renewed storm development is expected 21-23z near the triple point and along the cold front near the KS/MO border, though the northward extent of the threat is uncertain given the influence of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be maximized near the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone this afternoon/evening in MO. Cross-frontal shear vectors with storm motions to the east-southeast 25-30 kt should allow semi-discrete storms for a couple of hours late this afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Otherwise, cell mergers should lead to upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Damaging winds will become a primary threat with the clusters/line segments in an environment favoring strong downdrafts, and the threat for wind damage will persist into the early overnight hours. Weaker forcing for ascent and a warmer elevated mixed layer will tend to delay storm initiation until this evening farther southwest along the cold front into northern OK. Wind profiles will be sufficient for marginal supercells and/or organized clusters capable of producing isolated large hail. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given steep low-level lapse rates, large DCAPE, and precipitation loading with updrafts in a large CAPE environment. ...IL/IN this afternoon... A lead shortwave trough will eject northeastward from IL toward northern IN and Lower MI and weaken this afternoon, along with an accompanying surface cyclone in northern IL. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are present in the warm sector of the cyclone, though widespread clouds will tend to slow surface heating. There is some potential for renewed storm development this afternoon in a broken band across eastern IL into northwestern IN, where low-level shear will be marginally favorable for supercells and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Greatest severe-weather threat continues along a corridor from southern Missouri to northeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Severe probs have been lowered across northern MO/northeast KS to account for more stable conditions across this region. Early-day MCS that propagated across southeast NE/northwest MO has progressed to the I-44 corridor from near SGF to VIH. An MCV appears to be evolving within this thunderstorm cluster northwest of VIH. This activity is surging southeast at roughly 35kt and sustained convection should continue into the Ozarks and southeast MO with an attendant threat for wind and some hail. In the wake of the MCS, overturned boundary layer has stabilized considerably ahead of the front from northern MO into northeast KS. Widespread clouds over eastern KS/MO should prevent parcels from reaching their convective temperatures across this region. Latest thinking is new convection should ultimately evolve near the outflow/frontal intersection over southeast KS before expanding along the front as it surges south this evening. Probabilities have been adjusted to account for this evolution. ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...MO/KS/OK through tonight... A midlevel trough over the Dakotas is in the process of evolving into a closed low near the international border. A series of embedded speed maxima will rotate through the southern periphery of the trough from NE/KS to the middle MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southeastward across KS toward OK. A weak low is expected to form near the intersection of this cold front and a separate baroclinic zone near the KS/MO border by late afternoon. This baroclinic zone will be reinforced and likely shifted south by outflow and differential heating associated with the ongoing storms near Kansas City, and the evolution of these ongoing storms pose the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon/evening across MO. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is expected in the warm sector this afternoon as surface heating occurs within a moist boundary layer (mid 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The cap is weaker with eastward extent across MO, and the ongoing storms could become rooted at the surface by early afternoon, which would suggest the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into central MO. In the wake of the ongoing convection, renewed storm development is expected 21-23z near the triple point and along the cold front near the KS/MO border, though the northward extent of the threat is uncertain given the influence of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be maximized near the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone this afternoon/evening in MO. Cross-frontal shear vectors with storm motions to the east-southeast 25-30 kt should allow semi-discrete storms for a couple of hours late this afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Otherwise, cell mergers should lead to upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Damaging winds will become a primary threat with the clusters/line segments in an environment favoring strong downdrafts, and the threat for wind damage will persist into the early overnight hours. Weaker forcing for ascent and a warmer elevated mixed layer will tend to delay storm initiation until this evening farther southwest along the cold front into northern OK. Wind profiles will be sufficient for marginal supercells and/or organized clusters capable of producing isolated large hail. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given steep low-level lapse rates, large DCAPE, and precipitation loading with updrafts in a large CAPE environment. ...IL/IN this afternoon... A lead shortwave trough will eject northeastward from IL toward northern IN and Lower MI and weaken this afternoon, along with an accompanying surface cyclone in northern IL. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are present in the warm sector of the cyclone, though widespread clouds will tend to slow surface heating. There is some potential for renewed storm development this afternoon in a broken band across eastern IL into northwestern IN, where low-level shear will be marginally favorable for supercells and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Greatest severe-weather threat continues along a corridor from southern Missouri to northeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Severe probs have been lowered across northern MO/northeast KS to account for more stable conditions across this region. Early-day MCS that propagated across southeast NE/northwest MO has progressed to the I-44 corridor from near SGF to VIH. An MCV appears to be evolving within this thunderstorm cluster northwest of VIH. This activity is surging southeast at roughly 35kt and sustained convection should continue into the Ozarks and southeast MO with an attendant threat for wind and some hail. In the wake of the MCS, overturned boundary layer has stabilized considerably ahead of the front from northern MO into northeast KS. Widespread clouds over eastern KS/MO should prevent parcels from reaching their convective temperatures across this region. Latest thinking is new convection should ultimately evolve near the outflow/frontal intersection over southeast KS before expanding along the front as it surges south this evening. Probabilities have been adjusted to account for this evolution. ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...MO/KS/OK through tonight... A midlevel trough over the Dakotas is in the process of evolving into a closed low near the international border. A series of embedded speed maxima will rotate through the southern periphery of the trough from NE/KS to the middle MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southeastward across KS toward OK. A weak low is expected to form near the intersection of this cold front and a separate baroclinic zone near the KS/MO border by late afternoon. This baroclinic zone will be reinforced and likely shifted south by outflow and differential heating associated with the ongoing storms near Kansas City, and the evolution of these ongoing storms pose the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon/evening across MO. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is expected in the warm sector this afternoon as surface heating occurs within a moist boundary layer (mid 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The cap is weaker with eastward extent across MO, and the ongoing storms could become rooted at the surface by early afternoon, which would suggest the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into central MO. In the wake of the ongoing convection, renewed storm development is expected 21-23z near the triple point and along the cold front near the KS/MO border, though the northward extent of the threat is uncertain given the influence of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be maximized near the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone this afternoon/evening in MO. Cross-frontal shear vectors with storm motions to the east-southeast 25-30 kt should allow semi-discrete storms for a couple of hours late this afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Otherwise, cell mergers should lead to upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Damaging winds will become a primary threat with the clusters/line segments in an environment favoring strong downdrafts, and the threat for wind damage will persist into the early overnight hours. Weaker forcing for ascent and a warmer elevated mixed layer will tend to delay storm initiation until this evening farther southwest along the cold front into northern OK. Wind profiles will be sufficient for marginal supercells and/or organized clusters capable of producing isolated large hail. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given steep low-level lapse rates, large DCAPE, and precipitation loading with updrafts in a large CAPE environment. ...IL/IN this afternoon... A lead shortwave trough will eject northeastward from IL toward northern IN and Lower MI and weaken this afternoon, along with an accompanying surface cyclone in northern IL. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are present in the warm sector of the cyclone, though widespread clouds will tend to slow surface heating. There is some potential for renewed storm development this afternoon in a broken band across eastern IL into northwestern IN, where low-level shear will be marginally favorable for supercells and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Greatest severe-weather threat continues along a corridor from southern Missouri to northeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Severe probs have been lowered across northern MO/northeast KS to account for more stable conditions across this region. Early-day MCS that propagated across southeast NE/northwest MO has progressed to the I-44 corridor from near SGF to VIH. An MCV appears to be evolving within this thunderstorm cluster northwest of VIH. This activity is surging southeast at roughly 35kt and sustained convection should continue into the Ozarks and southeast MO with an attendant threat for wind and some hail. In the wake of the MCS, overturned boundary layer has stabilized considerably ahead of the front from northern MO into northeast KS. Widespread clouds over eastern KS/MO should prevent parcels from reaching their convective temperatures across this region. Latest thinking is new convection should ultimately evolve near the outflow/frontal intersection over southeast KS before expanding along the front as it surges south this evening. Probabilities have been adjusted to account for this evolution. ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...MO/KS/OK through tonight... A midlevel trough over the Dakotas is in the process of evolving into a closed low near the international border. A series of embedded speed maxima will rotate through the southern periphery of the trough from NE/KS to the middle MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southeastward across KS toward OK. A weak low is expected to form near the intersection of this cold front and a separate baroclinic zone near the KS/MO border by late afternoon. This baroclinic zone will be reinforced and likely shifted south by outflow and differential heating associated with the ongoing storms near Kansas City, and the evolution of these ongoing storms pose the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon/evening across MO. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is expected in the warm sector this afternoon as surface heating occurs within a moist boundary layer (mid 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The cap is weaker with eastward extent across MO, and the ongoing storms could become rooted at the surface by early afternoon, which would suggest the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into central MO. In the wake of the ongoing convection, renewed storm development is expected 21-23z near the triple point and along the cold front near the KS/MO border, though the northward extent of the threat is uncertain given the influence of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be maximized near the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone this afternoon/evening in MO. Cross-frontal shear vectors with storm motions to the east-southeast 25-30 kt should allow semi-discrete storms for a couple of hours late this afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Otherwise, cell mergers should lead to upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Damaging winds will become a primary threat with the clusters/line segments in an environment favoring strong downdrafts, and the threat for wind damage will persist into the early overnight hours. Weaker forcing for ascent and a warmer elevated mixed layer will tend to delay storm initiation until this evening farther southwest along the cold front into northern OK. Wind profiles will be sufficient for marginal supercells and/or organized clusters capable of producing isolated large hail. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given steep low-level lapse rates, large DCAPE, and precipitation loading with updrafts in a large CAPE environment. ...IL/IN this afternoon... A lead shortwave trough will eject northeastward from IL toward northern IN and Lower MI and weaken this afternoon, along with an accompanying surface cyclone in northern IL. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are present in the warm sector of the cyclone, though widespread clouds will tend to slow surface heating. There is some potential for renewed storm development this afternoon in a broken band across eastern IL into northwestern IN, where low-level shear will be marginally favorable for supercells and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest fire managers are making use of a lightning-caused fire to meet multiple resource objectives in the Carson-Iceberg Wilderness. The Dixon Fire is located east of Silver Peak on the north side of Dixon Creek and was discovered on July 28 by aerial reconnaissance after storms passed through the area. Fire is a natural occurring component of Sierra Nevada ecosystems, important for both plants and animals. The reason for managing a naturally-occurring wildfire is to allow fire to play its historical role on the landscape. A naturally ignited fire can decrease the threat of future high intensity, high-severity wildfires by reducing hazardous fuel accumulations; reduce the risk of insect and disease outbreak; recycle nutrients that increase soil productivity; and improve wildlife habitat by increasing forbs/forage.The fifteen-acre Dixon Fire is burning deep in the Wilderness and being managed for the following multiple resource objectives: reducing...

MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...southern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 261951Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...Broken line of storms will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging wind and large hail as it continues through southern MO this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Broken line of storms from Rolla to near Springfield continues southeast at 35-40 kt. Storms are moving into an environment characterized by warmer air near 700 mb, and recent trend has been for storms to become more discrete including what appears to be a supercell approaching Springfield. Storms are moving along instability gradient with downstream temperatures in the upper 80s along with low to mid 70s F dewpoints supporting 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. VWP data from Springfield also show veering low-level wind profiles with 50+ kt 0-6 km shear favorable for embedded organized structures. ..Dial.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF... LAT...LON 37689142 37119108 36599140 36529314 36719374 37069362 37409283 37499198 37689142 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0623 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more