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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the upper Great Lakes to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. Further west, an upper ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states to the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain a broad swath of northwesterly deep layer flow from the Rockies into the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from the lower Great Lakes southward toward the TN Valley and then westward into northern/central TX Wednesday morning. The northern/southern portion of the front will progress east and south through the period, before moving offshore the Atlantic/central Gulf coasts by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front from NY southward through the Carolinas. However, limited instability and generally weak shear will preclude severe concerns. Most thunderstorm activity associated with the front across the southern U.S. will remain across FL where similarly weak shear/ascent will preclude severe potential. Further west, the TX portion of the front will stall and become more diffuse with time. Some elevated, but strong, storms could be ongoing across central TX at the beginning of the period. Most guidance has whatever MCS may be ongoing during the morning decaying by afternoon with some redevelopment possible in the TX Big Bend vicinity eastward toward the upper and middle TX Coasts. Moderate instability will be sufficient to support a few strong storms, however, shear will remain weak and overall severe potential appears limited in the absence of stronger forcing and better wind profiles. Additional thunderstorms storms are possible beneath the upper ridge as low level moisture returns westward ahead of the front into parts of southern NM and southeast AZ. Steep lapse rates and weak to moderate instability could support a couple of strong storms capable of gusty winds. However, weak deep layer flow limit longevity/organization of cells and preclude severe concerns. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Leitman.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the upper Great Lakes to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. Further west, an upper ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states to the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain a broad swath of northwesterly deep layer flow from the Rockies into the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from the lower Great Lakes southward toward the TN Valley and then westward into northern/central TX Wednesday morning. The northern/southern portion of the front will progress east and south through the period, before moving offshore the Atlantic/central Gulf coasts by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front from NY southward through the Carolinas. However, limited instability and generally weak shear will preclude severe concerns. Most thunderstorm activity associated with the front across the southern U.S. will remain across FL where similarly weak shear/ascent will preclude severe potential. Further west, the TX portion of the front will stall and become more diffuse with time. Some elevated, but strong, storms could be ongoing across central TX at the beginning of the period. Most guidance has whatever MCS may be ongoing during the morning decaying by afternoon with some redevelopment possible in the TX Big Bend vicinity eastward toward the upper and middle TX Coasts. Moderate instability will be sufficient to support a few strong storms, however, shear will remain weak and overall severe potential appears limited in the absence of stronger forcing and better wind profiles. Additional thunderstorms storms are possible beneath the upper ridge as low level moisture returns westward ahead of the front into parts of southern NM and southeast AZ. Steep lapse rates and weak to moderate instability could support a couple of strong storms capable of gusty winds. However, weak deep layer flow limit longevity/organization of cells and preclude severe concerns. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Leitman.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the upper Great Lakes to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. Further west, an upper ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states to the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain a broad swath of northwesterly deep layer flow from the Rockies into the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from the lower Great Lakes southward toward the TN Valley and then westward into northern/central TX Wednesday morning. The northern/southern portion of the front will progress east and south through the period, before moving offshore the Atlantic/central Gulf coasts by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front from NY southward through the Carolinas. However, limited instability and generally weak shear will preclude severe concerns. Most thunderstorm activity associated with the front across the southern U.S. will remain across FL where similarly weak shear/ascent will preclude severe potential. Further west, the TX portion of the front will stall and become more diffuse with time. Some elevated, but strong, storms could be ongoing across central TX at the beginning of the period. Most guidance has whatever MCS may be ongoing during the morning decaying by afternoon with some redevelopment possible in the TX Big Bend vicinity eastward toward the upper and middle TX Coasts. Moderate instability will be sufficient to support a few strong storms, however, shear will remain weak and overall severe potential appears limited in the absence of stronger forcing and better wind profiles. Additional thunderstorms storms are possible beneath the upper ridge as low level moisture returns westward ahead of the front into parts of southern NM and southeast AZ. Steep lapse rates and weak to moderate instability could support a couple of strong storms capable of gusty winds. However, weak deep layer flow limit longevity/organization of cells and preclude severe concerns. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Leitman.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the upper Great Lakes to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. Further west, an upper ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states to the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain a broad swath of northwesterly deep layer flow from the Rockies into the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from the lower Great Lakes southward toward the TN Valley and then westward into northern/central TX Wednesday morning. The northern/southern portion of the front will progress east and south through the period, before moving offshore the Atlantic/central Gulf coasts by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front from NY southward through the Carolinas. However, limited instability and generally weak shear will preclude severe concerns. Most thunderstorm activity associated with the front across the southern U.S. will remain across FL where similarly weak shear/ascent will preclude severe potential. Further west, the TX portion of the front will stall and become more diffuse with time. Some elevated, but strong, storms could be ongoing across central TX at the beginning of the period. Most guidance has whatever MCS may be ongoing during the morning decaying by afternoon with some redevelopment possible in the TX Big Bend vicinity eastward toward the upper and middle TX Coasts. Moderate instability will be sufficient to support a few strong storms, however, shear will remain weak and overall severe potential appears limited in the absence of stronger forcing and better wind profiles. Additional thunderstorms storms are possible beneath the upper ridge as low level moisture returns westward ahead of the front into parts of southern NM and southeast AZ. Steep lapse rates and weak to moderate instability could support a couple of strong storms capable of gusty winds. However, weak deep layer flow limit longevity/organization of cells and preclude severe concerns. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Leitman.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

MD 1876 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MO/MO BOOTHILL...NORTHEAST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Areas affected...Far Southeast MO/MO Boothill...Northeast AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 270544Z - 270715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convective line moving through southeast MO may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts as it continues into far southeast MO/northeast AR. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown an increase in forward speed with the ongoing convective line across southeast MO. Recent storm motion is southeastward at 30-35 kt. This storm motion takes the line to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625 within the next 30 minutes (i.e. by 06Z). Downstream air mass across southeast MO/MO Boothill here is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and low buoyancy. However, downstream air mass across northeast AR is more favorable, with temperatures in the upper 70s, dewpoints in the mid 70s, and moderate instability. Convective inhibition exists but the organized character to the ongoing line and strong cold pool should be able to overcome much of this inhibition. As a result, a damaging wind threat may persist across northeast AR/southeast MO and a watch will be considered soon to cover this threat. ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36449243 37059150 37009045 36598987 35998995 35569032 35049118 35199246 36449243 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

South Texas rangeland and pastures were deteriorating rapidly as soil moisture levels remained short to very short. Pastures were turning brown, leading some producers to begin feeding hay. Some producers culled herds or shifted livestock to other pastures. Some livestock received supplemental feeding. Deer breeders offered supplemental feed, while some ranchers provided water for livestock and wildlife. Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Aug. 20, 2019 South Texas rangeland and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate as the lack of rain left soil moisture levels very short to short. Livestock producers increased supplemental feeding and some hauled water. Poor grazing conditions and heat caused livestock body conditions to begin to deteriorate. Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Aug. 13, 2019

Drought stress was apparent in rangelands, pastures and some croplands in West Central Texas. Hay fields were in fair condition, but were deteriorating for lack of rain. Some livestock producers were opting to give cattle supplemental hay. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more