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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023/ ...Discussion... A progressive/low-amplitude upper-level flow pattern will exist over the CONUS through tonight. Surface cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will influence air mass modification and gradual low-level moistening over the western Gulf of Mexico into south/east Texas, but prevalent mid-level capping will preclude thunderstorm development within this regime through tonight. Elsewhere, some thunderstorms will continue to occur today in the Atlantic waters 100+ miles off the coast of Long Island/southern New England. A few lightning flashes could occur late this afternoon into tonight along the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California, but the overall potential appears quite low (less than 10 percent) and primarily focused offshore. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 6 19:39:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 6 19:39:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak winds and non-critical relative humidity across the southern Plains behind a cold front tomorrow/Saturday will keep fire weather concerns minimal. See previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Lyons.. 01/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move toward the southeast states as upper ridging dominates the southern Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Saturday. At the surface though, a cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Plains. Cooler surface conditions atop marginally receptive fuels suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently needed anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move from the central Plains eastward through the Mid MS Valley and into the Lower OH Valley on Saturday. Surface low associated with this shortwave is also expected to move eastward, from its early period position over eastern OK through the Mid-South. An attendant cold front will push southeastward across central/east TX, southern AR, and western LA. By early Sunday morning, this front is expected to extend from western TN southwestward into deep south TX. Modest moisture return will precede this front, with associated buoyancy contributing to showers and thunderstorms as the front moves southeastward. The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced to the north of the warm sector, likely limiting storm severity. Additionally, much of the thunderstorm activity should occur behind the front. Even so, relatively cold mid-level temperatures could still result in a few stronger storms capable of hail, especially later in the period over the middle/upper TX coast as another southern-stream shortwave trough approaches the region. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs will impact the West Coast, including one early in the period across OR/northern CA and another near the end of the period across northern and central CA. A few lightning flashes a possible within the deeper convective cores associated with these waves, particularly the second wave which has colder mid-level temperatures and greater buoyancy associated with it. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive/low-amplitude upper-level flow pattern will exist over the CONUS through tonight. Surface cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will influence air mass modification and gradual low-level moistening over the western Gulf of Mexico into south/east Texas, but prevalent mid-level capping will preclude thunderstorm development within this regime through tonight. Elsewhere, some thunderstorms will continue to occur today in the Atlantic waters 100+ miles off the coast of Long Island/southern New England. A few lightning flashes could occur late this afternoon into tonight along the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California, but the overall potential appears quite low (less than 10 percent) and primarily focused offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is largely on track. Expect far eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to see spotty and transient elevated fire conditions, with gusts up to 20-25 kts and RH near 15-20% this afternoon. However, ERCs near seasonal averages prevent the introduction of Elevated risk areas. In south Florida, ERCs are near the 90th percentile, and RH is expected to be low (25-30%) this afternoon with diurnal mixing. However, weak winds will keep elevated fire risk localized. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Lyons.. 01/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies and overspread portions of the south-central U.S. today, prompting surface low development across the southern Plains. To the west of the surface low, dry and breezy conditions should develop across the southern High Plains due to both gradient and downslope components of flow. 15-25 percent RH overlapping 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected by afternoon peaking heating across portions of far eastern New Mexico into western Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area. While such conditions typically necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights, fuels are marginally receptive (at best) to wildfire spread, so fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Moderate drought has Pender County officials urging residents to conserve water. Pender County relies on the Cape Fear River, local water plants and wells, and Wallace in nearby Duplin County for their water. With fire danger being high, residents were urged to monitor outdoor burning very carefully. Firefighting uses a lot of water that the community needs to conserve. Wilmington Morning Star (N.C.), Dec 30, 2022 Pender County officials were urging residents to conserve water as the county was in the second consecutive year of winter drought. Firefighting requires a large quantity of water, so city officials wanted to be sure that they had an adequate supply. WECT-TV Channel 6 (Wilmington, N.C.), Dec 8, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous discussion remains on track with no changes required. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show relatively weak signals for sustained elevated conditions across eastern NM/western TX away from prominent terrain features, suggesting that localized and/or transient elevated wind/RH conditions are probable. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ...Southern Florida... A northerly flow regime with 10-15 mph winds is expected Friday afternoon across southern FL. Strong diurnal warming/mixing coupled with dry down-peninsula flow may result in RH values falling into the 25-35% range. Fire weather concerns may emerge where elevated wind/RH conditions can overlap with modestly dry fuels over the region. ..Moore.. 01/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains by late afternoon Friday. A surface low is expected to develop in southeast Colorado and shift into southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma. Ahead of a Pacific cold front, dry and windy conditions are at least possible locally within parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Guidance continues to show a low probability of sustained overlap of strong winds and low RH. The strongest winds (15-25 mph) are likely to occur in northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. However, RH below 20% may be brief and fine fuels are somewhat less receptive with northward extent. Higher confidence in low RH exists in southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin/South Plains, but winds may struggle to reach much more than 15 mph away from the terrain. Locally elevated conditions are probable for some parts of the region. Confidence in where several hours of these conditions will occur is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 5 19:05:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 5 19:05:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A somewhat progressive upper pattern is anticipated on Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs, one initially extending from the Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and the other from the eastern Great Basin into AZ, both move eastward across the CONUS. The lead wave is forecast to move off the Northeast coast by Friday evening while the wave in its wake moves into the central and southern Plains. Some moisture return is expected ahead of the Plains shortwave, with 60s dewpoints likely in place across much of southern, central, and east TX by Saturday morning. However, warm temperatures aloft should limit thunderstorm development within this return flow. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development elsewhere east of the Rockies. The upper pattern over the western CONUS should begin amplifying Friday evening into Saturday morning as another strong shortwave trough approaching the West Coast. Strong ascent and a well-defined frontal band will approach the northern CA coast Saturday morning, but any deeper convective cores capable of lightning should remain offshore. ..Mosier.. 01/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel cyclone, evident in water vapor imagery will continue eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the period, while related large-scale troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. An embedded midlevel speed maximum will lift northeastward from the Southeast and eventually off the Mid-Atlantic coast, allowing the tail-end of a cold front to continue southward across the central/southern FL Peninsula. Moist/unstable boundary-layer conditions will continue supporting isolated thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the southward-moving front today. While 30-40 kt of effective shear obliquely-oriented to the front could favor a loosely organized multicell cluster or two over central FL early this afternoon, limited large-scale ascent and poor midlevel lapse rates should temper the severe risk. Farther west, water vapor imagery and regional VWP data depict a pronounced, midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft tracking eastward over the CA coast. As associated strong midlevel height-falls (90m per 12hr) continue overspreading CA and parts of the Great Basin, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should spread eastward across the region into the overnight hours. Cold midlevel temperatures atop lower 50s boundary-layer dewpoints could yield pockets of weak surface-based instability (especially over the western portions of CA this afternoon). These conditions, coupled with 25-35 kt of effective shear, could support a few embedded cells capable of small hail and locally strong gusts. However, the weak instability/poor low-level lapse rates should generally limit storm intensity -- precluding severe probabilities. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 01/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Despite dry boundary-layer conditions sampled in morning soundings across west TX, the potential for widespread, sustained 15+ mph winds outside of terrain-favored locations remains very limited across the southern High Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will occur over the southern High Plains today. To the west, another upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Four Corners. As the trough approaches, weak lee troughing will occur in the southern High Plains. Given the overall light winds and marginally low RH, fire weather concerns in the region will remain low. Elsewhere, no fire weather concerns are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Kansas Governor Laura Kelly updated drought declaration for Kansas counties and kept all counties in watch, warning or emergency status. The drought declaration placed 67 counties into an emergency status, 11 counties in a warning status and 27 into a watch status. This action was recommended by the director of the Kansas Water Office and chair of the Governor’s Drought Response Team. High Plains Journal (Dodge City, Kan.), Oct 6, 2022 Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly signed an executive order on June 27, updating the drought emergency status for some counties. All 105 counties were in a watch, warning or emergency status. The declaration identifies 34 counties as being in emergency status, 8 in a warning and 63 in a watch. Precipitation has been better in June, but the increase in heat will likely lead to intensifying drought conditions in coming weeks. An interagency agreement between the Kansas Water Office, the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks and the Kansas Division of Emergency Management lets counties in a drought emergency draw water from certain fishing lakes and also makes them eligible to access water from some federal reservoirs. WIBW-TV 13 (Topeka, Kan.), June 28, 2022 All 105 Kansas counties are in watch, warning or emergency status. The drought declaration placed 19 counties into an emergency status, 61 counties in a warning status and 25 into a watch status. Counties in emergency stage are eligible for emergency use of water from certain state fishing lakes. These counties also become eligible for water in some federal reservoirs. The counties in a drought emergency are Barber, Chautauqua, Clark, Comanche, Cowley, Finney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Harper, Haskell, Kearny, Meade, Montgomery, Morton, Seward, Stanton, Stevens and Sumner. The counties in a drought warning are Barton, Butler, Cheyenne, Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson, Edwards, Elk, Ellis, Ellsworth, Ford, Geary, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Harvey, Hodgeman, Jewell, Kingman, Kiowa, Labette, Lane, Lincoln, Logan, Marion, Marshall, McPherson, Mitchell, Morris, Nemaha, Neosho, Ness, Norton, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Rawlins, Reno, Republic, Rice, Riley, Rooks, Rush, Russell, Saline, Scott, Sedgwick, Sheridan, Sherman, Smith, Stafford, Thomas, Trego, Wallace, Washington, Wichita and Wilson. The counties in a drought watch are Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chase, Cherokee, Coffey, Crawford, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Greenwood, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Lyon, Miami, Osage, Shawnee, Wabaunsee, Woodson and Wyandotte. KRSL (Russell, Kan.), March 17, 2022

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA AS WELL AS EASTERN NC AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast today over portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... A broken line of showers and thunderstorms extends from eastern NC southwestward into northern FL. Strongest storms within this line are currently located over northern FL. Warm and moist conditions exist ahead of this line, supporting the potential for strong to severe storms capable of hail, damaging wind gusts, and/or brief tornadoes. Farther north, temperatures have warmed into mid 70s across northeast NC, helping to support moderate buoyancy ahead of an arcing line of thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms are possible within this line as it continue northeastward through the remainder of northeast NC and into far southeast VA. Primary hazards with these storms are damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Central California Coast... Convectively enhanced damaging wind gusts are still possible tonight across the central CA coast as a strong frontal band moves onshore. Most recent guidance indicates the band will likely impact the region from 02Z to 09Z. ..Mosier.. 01/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023/ ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... A midlevel cyclone (evident in water vapor imagery) currently centered over southern MN will move slowly east-southeastward into southern WI through the period. Peripheral to this cyclone, broad/enhanced cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the eastern CONUS, while an embedded southwesterly midlevel speed max lifts northeastward from the TN Valley toward the Northeast and weakens with time. At the surface, a cold front, currently extending from the Ohio Valley south-southwestward into the central Gulf Coast, will advance eastward toward the East Coast. Ahead of the cold front, a QLCS extending from SC south-southwestward into the FL Panhandle will continue tracking eastward this afternoon. Upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and pockets of diurnal heating/destabilization ahead of the convective line will continue to support surface-based inflow for this activity as it continues toward the coast. And, 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented mostly parallel to the leading-edge gust front will favor a continued organized/linear mode with a primary risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of embedded mesovortex tornadoes. The tornado and damaging-wind risk should be maximized with any north-south-oriented segments of the line, where deep-layer flow/shear will be more favorably oriented to the gust front. For details regarding the ongoing severe risk over this area, refer to Tornado Watch 13 and Mesoscale Discussion 34. Farther north into eastern North Carolina, additional thunderstorm development is underway along the eastern edge of widespread cloud coverage extending across western North Carolina. During the next couple of hours, continued diurnal destabilization across the warm sector will yield moderate instability amid strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, with 45-55 kt of effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature. As a result, storms should gradually intensify as they intercept this favorable environment this afternoon. A mixed-mode, consisting of supercell clusters and line segments, will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes this afternoon. For more details, refer to Tornado Watch 14. ...California Coast... While cloud coverage will generally limit diurnal heating along the CA coast today, at least pockets of heating/mixing amid lower/middle 50s dewpoints should yield weak surface-based instability by the evening/overnight hours. Strong DCVA ahead of an approaching midlevel trough and a strengthening low-level jet should aid isolated thunderstorm development during the evening/overnight hours. 40+ kt of deep-layer shear should support a loosely organized frontal band of convection capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 4 19:49:03 UTC 2023.

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRE TO 30 NNE CRE TO 10 NNE OAJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036 ..WEINMAN..01/04/23 ATTN...WFO...ILM...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-129-141-042040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER AMZ250-252-042040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 14 TORNADO NC SC CW 041620Z - 042200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1020 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and a few brief tornadoes will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Florence SC to 15 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CTY TO 30 SSE VDI TO 15 ESE SAV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 ..WEINMAN..01/04/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-047-067-089-121-041940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON LAFAYETTE NASSAU SUWANNEE GAC001-005-025-039-049-051-065-101-127-179-183-191-229-299-305- 041940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE SCC015-019-041940- Read more