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WW 0630 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 630 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PRC TO 55 SW PRC TO 20 WNW GBN TO 90 S GBN. ..BROYLES..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC012-013-025-027-020440- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LA PAZ MARICOPA YAVAPAI YUMA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 630 SEVERE TSTM AZ 012235Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 630 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and western Arizona * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM MST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Although isolated strong-severe storms already are occurring, the potential is increasing for one or two organized clusters to grow and send damaging to severe gusts westward across the deserts. The main threat area will be from that part of Pima County west of Tucson, northward across central Arizona, and the southern part of the I-17 corridor, westward to near the Colorado River. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from Prescott AZ to 75 miles south of Gila Bend AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 09035. ...Edwards Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 02:42:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 03:31:44 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020241 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the center of circulation this evening, the banding features still remain quite fragmented. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory. Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air mass which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, the cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge, while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and induce a more northwestward track. The new official forecast is nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE consensus and the ECMWF global. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020240 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 5 57(62) 28(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 X 11(11) 52(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 32(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 115W 34 3 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 8(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 57(69) 10(79) X(79) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 11(44) 1(45) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 14(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 110.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 110.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 15.4, -110.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020240 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

WW 0630 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 630 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC012-013-019-021-025-027-020240- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LA PAZ MARICOPA PIMA PINAL YAVAPAI YUMA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are likely across parts of central and southern Arizona this evening. A few strong to severe storms remain possible over western Pennsylvania through mid evening and over the central and northern Plains later tonight. ...Central and southern Arizona... Easterly deep-layer winds along southern periphery of an upper ridge have promoted storms that developed over the mountains of southeast AZ moving westward into the desert valleys. Tendency has been for storms to evolve into multicell clusters. Deep, inverted-V well-mixed boundary layers as indicated by the 00Z RAOB data will continue to promote scattered damaging wind gusts as storms continue westward this evening. ...Western Pennsylvania... A cluster of storms continues through western PA in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. The 00Z Pittsburgh RAOB indicates around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 160 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, but modest effective bulk shear. This environment may continue to support a marginal risk for locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado with transient supercell structures before weakening toward mid evening. ...Central through northern Plains... Isolated storms remain possible later tonight within zone of increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent as the low-level jet strengthens and interacts with baroclinic zone across the central and northern Plains. These storms will be elevated, but moderate MUCAPE and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear will support mid-level updraft rotation along with a risk for a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Dial.. 09/02/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are likely across parts of central and southern Arizona this evening. A few strong to severe storms remain possible over western Pennsylvania through mid evening and over the central and northern Plains later tonight. ...Central and southern Arizona... Easterly deep-layer winds along southern periphery of an upper ridge have promoted storms that developed over the mountains of southeast AZ moving westward into the desert valleys. Tendency has been for storms to evolve into multicell clusters. Deep, inverted-V well-mixed boundary layers as indicated by the 00Z RAOB data will continue to promote scattered damaging wind gusts as storms continue westward this evening. ...Western Pennsylvania... A cluster of storms continues through western PA in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. The 00Z Pittsburgh RAOB indicates around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 160 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, but modest effective bulk shear. This environment may continue to support a marginal risk for locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado with transient supercell structures before weakening toward mid evening. ...Central through northern Plains... Isolated storms remain possible later tonight within zone of increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent as the low-level jet strengthens and interacts with baroclinic zone across the central and northern Plains. These storms will be elevated, but moderate MUCAPE and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear will support mid-level updraft rotation along with a risk for a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Dial.. 09/02/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are likely across parts of central and southern Arizona this evening. A few strong to severe storms remain possible over western Pennsylvania through mid evening and over the central and northern Plains later tonight. ...Central and southern Arizona... Easterly deep-layer winds along southern periphery of an upper ridge have promoted storms that developed over the mountains of southeast AZ moving westward into the desert valleys. Tendency has been for storms to evolve into multicell clusters. Deep, inverted-V well-mixed boundary layers as indicated by the 00Z RAOB data will continue to promote scattered damaging wind gusts as storms continue westward this evening. ...Western Pennsylvania... A cluster of storms continues through western PA in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. The 00Z Pittsburgh RAOB indicates around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 160 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, but modest effective bulk shear. This environment may continue to support a marginal risk for locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado with transient supercell structures before weakening toward mid evening. ...Central through northern Plains... Isolated storms remain possible later tonight within zone of increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent as the low-level jet strengthens and interacts with baroclinic zone across the central and northern Plains. These storms will be elevated, but moderate MUCAPE and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear will support mid-level updraft rotation along with a risk for a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Dial.. 09/02/2019 Read more

MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630... FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Areas affected...Southeast California...Southwest and Central Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630... Valid 020025Z - 020230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will continue across central and western parts of WW 630 over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery across southern and central Arizona shows a couple of areas of strong thunderstorms. The first is located between the Flagstaff and Phoenix area with the second to the southwest of the Phoenix near the Arizona-Mexico border. The RAP is analyzing moderate instability across the southern half of Arizona with the strongest instability located in southwestern Arizona where MLCAPE values are estimated near 2500 J/kg. The wind profile is from the east with 20 to 25 kt of flow near 500 mb as evidenced on the Tuscon 00Z sounding. This combined with hot surface temperatures and a nearly dry adiabatic layer from the surface to 700 mb should promote isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 09/02/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 31861308 33071162 33941144 34731188 35041288 35161379 34701447 33951490 32491502 31861308 Read more

MD 1908 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR SOUTHWEST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far southwest New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012326Z - 020100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief increase in convective coverage and perhaps intensity may occur over the next few hours. The stronger storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and possibly a brief tornado. The isolated nature of the risk precludes a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have been developing for much of the afternoon along a axis of a passing mid-level shortwave trough. Recently, mosaic radar and lightning trends have depicted a slight uptick in convective coverage and intensity. Recent CAM guidance also depicts a short-lived increase in storm coverage along the OH/PA/NY borders, before weakening in association with nocturnal cooling. Should storms organize and mature further, modest but adequate buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE, or 2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and deep-layer shear (30 knots bulk-effective shear) suggest that multicellular and transient supercellular structures may be achieved, with isolated, marginally severe hail and wind gusts possible. In addition, low-level speed and directional shear are present, with modest veering in the sfc-850 mb layer contributing to sickle-shaped hodographs and corresponding 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH (per latest RAP forecast soundings), especially in western Pennsylvania. As such, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the near term, despite the slowly stabilizing environment. Nonetheless, given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 09/01/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39838278 40258181 41498066 41948042 42277969 42427908 42187817 41677801 40627858 40047917 39698053 39448180 39838278 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ31
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

WW 0630 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0630 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 630 SEVERE TSTM AZ 012235Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 630 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and western Arizona * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM MST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Although isolated strong-severe storms already are occurring, the potential is increasing for one or two organized clusters to grow and send damaging to severe gusts westward across the deserts. The main threat area will be from that part of Pima County west of Tucson, northward across central Arizona, and the southern part of the I-17 corridor, westward to near the Colorado River. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from Prescott AZ to 75 miles south of Gila Bend AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 09035. ...Edwards Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 1 22:11:02 UTC 2019.

MD 1907 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTREME NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Montana into extreme southwest North Dakota...far northeast Wyoming...western South Dakota...extreme northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012209Z - 020015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple storms may sustain themselves during the afternoon hours. Organized storms may pose a large hail and damaging wind threat. The very isolated coverage suggests that a WW issuance is not currently warranted. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe storms have developed in Custer County, MT over the past hour or so, despite convection failing to become sustained earlier along the buoyancy axis (mainly along the WY/SD border). Peak afternoon heating and weak vertical ascent associated with a weak vorticity max cresting the ridge in western ND are supporting this more recent, successful attempt at convection. Should this storm or any other cell become established across the discussion area, ample instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer shear (around 50 knots of bulk effective shear) is in place to foster the development of highly organized multicellular clusters or perhaps supercells. Given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (7+ C/km), and potential for mid-level rotation, some of the more organized cells may produce large hail in addition to damaging wind gusts. Nonetheless, deep-layer ascent is quite weak across the area (as supported by the 12Z HREF and the last several runs of the HRRR), with low confidence in a substantial increase in convective coverage through the early evening hours. As such, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 09/01/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 44340538 45750661 46400630 46410509 46080308 45700258 44700190 44130182 43330185 42870214 42770286 42950393 43320464 44340538 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 20:42:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 21:31:45 GMT