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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited for Sunday across much of the country. The upper wave and attendant surface low/cold front over the southern High Plains will continue to migrate east towards the Southeast/East Coast by Sunday afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the central/southern Plains in its wake, resulting in weak pressure-gradient winds across much of south-central TX where fuels are driest. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will foster weak lee troughing across eastern NM by late afternoon, which may support localized elevated conditions along the northern periphery of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as southerly low-level flow increases. However, ensemble guidance currently depicts low probabilities for widespread/sustained elevated conditions - likely due to spread in the strength and placement of the developing lee cyclone during the Sunday afternoon to Sunday night period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina Sunday. A couple of tornadoes or damaging wind gusts are the main severe threats. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will deepen while traversing the eastern CONUS tomorrow/Sunday as a second upper trough amplifies across the western U.S. Surface low development is expected along the East Coast ahead of the eastern upper trough, encouraging modest northward advection of low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which is poised to overspread portions of northern Florida to the Carolina Coastline. Weak buoyancy associated with this low-level moisture, in tandem with deep-layer ascent driven by the approaching upper trough, will encourage widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of the southeast U.S., with isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development possible. ...Portions of the Southeast... The aforementioned surface low should drift northeast toward the Carolinas through the first half of the period, resulting in southwesterly low-level flow across parts of northern FL into southern GA and perhaps the coastline of the Carolinas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should already be underway across GA into northern FL in the 12-16Z time frame. Southwesterly mid-level flow from the positively-tilted upper trough overspreading low-level southwesterly winds will support near-unidirectional vertical wind profiles, but with plenty of speed-shear (with greater than 50 kts of effective bulk shear likely). Given only modest low-level curvature noted in point-forecast soundings, short linear segments and a few embedded transient supercells are the most likely modes of deep-moist convection from morning into the afternoon. Furthermore, modest mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints should support thin MLCAPE values below 1000 J/kg across southern GA and points south. During the afternoon, the strongest 925-850 mb flow should be shifting into the Carolinas, away from the stronger buoyancy. Furthermore, the severe threat may be tempered by persistent, widespread convection across the eastern Gulf Coastal region from late Day 1 into the morning Day 2. As such, a brief window of opportunity may exist for a few of the stronger, more organized storms to produce a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across northern FL into southern GA and southern SC, where a relatively favorable buoyancy/low-level shear overlap may materialize during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed this morning. Morning satellite shows clear skies across the current Elevated delineation behind a surface cold front that is now located across east-central Texas. Post-frontal northwesterly flow has increased across the Texas Panhandle and is expected to continue to increase across southwestern and south-central Texas by the afternoon as the surface low deepens and tracks southeast. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected this afternoon as winds increase and relative humidity drops to near 10-15 percent amid dry and receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely this afternoon across portions of southwest and south-central Texas. Early-morning surface observations show a weak Pacific front migrating east across the southern High Plains. Dry air (denoted by dewpoints in the low teens and single digits) is observed behind this front and will overspread southwest TX through the day. Gradient winds near 15 mph appear likely per latest ensemble guidance, but may frequently gust into the 20-25 mph range, given deep boundary-layer mixing under mostly clear skies. Diurnal insolation coupled with downslope trajectories emanating off the southern Rockies will favor RH reductions into the low to mid teens. The latest ERC analyses indicate that fuels continue to cure after several days of dry conditions, with ERC values near the 70-80th percentile. Consequently, the probability for elevated fire weather conditions is reasonably high. A combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible overnight along the central Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over central KS, with fast zonal flow across much of the southern tier of states. At the surface, the primary baroclinic zone lies offshore of the Gulf Coast states from south of Houston to near Tampa. This boundary is forecast to lift slowly northward today and tonight, approaching the central Gulf coastline after midnight. Most models show scattered showers and thunderstorms in vicinity of the warm front, which may move ashore late tonight. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep layer vertical shear for rotating updrafts and the possibility of a few strong wind gusts or a tornado. ..Hart/Leitman.. 01/21/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. With little threat of thunderstorms today, no changes were made to the existing outlook. ..Jewell.. 01/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies as a broader but lower amplitude upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will promote mass subsidence and low-level stability across much of the northern and central CONUS, limiting the potential for thunderstorm development. A few lightning flashes may occur this afternoon into early evening across the southern Rockies as cooler temperatures and associated steeper mid-level lapse rates accompanying the mid-level trough overspread the region. Likewise, a few thunderstorms may also develop along the TX/LA Coastline into far southwestern MS later tonight within a warm-air advection regime in response to the approaching Southern Rockies mid-level trough. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 20 19:21:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 20 19:21:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. on Saturday. General thunderstorms are likely across the Gulf Coast states. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large positive-tilt upper trough will progress eastward across the central U.S. with a strengthening midlevel jet from TX into the OH Valley through 12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a compact shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the Pacific Northwest, providing cooling aloft and lift. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the East, with another centered over the Great Basin. A weak inverted trough is forecast to develop from central OK into TX, but the boundary layer will remain stable as appreciable moisture remains over the Gulf of Mexico. Although stable at the surface across the Southeast, positive theta-e advection will occur around 850 mb, resulting in lift and elevated MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. As a result, widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely, beginning over LA during the day and spreading eastward overnight. At this time, it is most likely that SBCAPE remains offshore, limiting any tornado potential. Despite strong deep-layer shear across the region, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft. As such, severe hail is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies as a broader but lower amplitude upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will promote mass subsidence and low-level stability across much of the northern and central CONUS, limiting the potential for thunderstorm development. A few lightning flashes may occur this afternoon into early evening across the southern Rockies as cooler temperatures and associated steeper mid-level lapse rates accompanying the mid-level trough overspread the region. Likewise, a few thunderstorms may also develop along the TX/LA Coastline into far southwestern MS later tonight within a warm-air advection regime in response to the approaching Southern Rockies mid-level trough. ..Squitieri/Flournoy.. 01/20/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to remain low for today, though localized concerns may develop across parts of the southern High Plains. A deepening surface low over portions of NM/CO will support increasing winds across the region that may overlap with a modest low-level thermal ridge currently in place across southeast NM/southwest TX. Elsewhere across the country, precipitation over the past 72 hours and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Southern High Plains... The upper low currently over the Great Basin is expected to gradually de-amplify as it migrates eastward over the southern Rockies over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, a lee cyclone is expected to deepen over parts of northern NM/southern CO, resulting in strengthening southeasterly winds across TX and OK. Breezy conditions are also expected behind a trailing Pacific cold front across western NM. The warmest/driest conditions will likely reside in between these two windy regimes across southeast NM into southwest TX. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the potential for sustained elevated conditions remains fairly limited, but periods of elevated conditions are possible - especially in the lee of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains where locally stronger winds are probable. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The drought watch that was originally issued on Aug. 31 for 36 counties in eastern Pennsylvania was lifted for the remaining five counties--Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Luzerne and Potter. Other counties were removed from the watch in October and December. New Jersey ended its statewide drought watch at the end of 2022. LehighValleyLive.com (Harrisburg, Pa.), Jan 20, 2023 Five Pennsylvania counties remained in a drought watch in January 2023. A task force will meet on Jan. 20 to review whether the watch was still needed for Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Luzerne and Potter counties, where residents were asked to curb their water use by 5% to 10%. The drought watch was originally issued on Aug. 31 for 36 counties. LehighValleyLive.com (Harrisburg, Pa.), Jan 19, 2023 The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection announced a drought watch at the end of August for 36 counties and asked residents to curb their water use by 5% to 10%. The watch was lifted for 16 counties in the northern and eastern parts of the state in mid-October. On Dec. 8, DEP removed another 15 counties from the watch. Five counties still remained in a drought watch. Centre Daily times (State College, Pa.), Dec 8, 2022 The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection updated the drought watch, which has been lifted for 16 counties and remains in place for 20 counties. The drought watch continued for Cameron, Carbon, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Dauphin, Juniata, Lebanon, Luzerne, Lycoming, Mifflin, Montour, Northampton, Northumberland, Perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, and Union counties. The drought watch was lifted for Berks, Bradford, Bucks, Delaware, Lackawanna, Lehigh, McKean, Monroe, Montgomery, Philadelphia, Pike, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Wayne, and Wyoming counties. WHTM-TV 27 (Harrisburg, Pa.), Oct 17, 2022 A drought watch was declared for 36 counties in northeastern Pennsylvania, including the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Berks and some of the southeastern part of the state. The state Department of Environmental Protection requests that people in the affected counties curb water use by 5% to 10%, or 3-6 gallons daily. WFMZ-TV Channel 69 (Allentown, Pa.), Aug 31, 2022

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..FLOURNOY..01/19/23 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...LMK...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-029-031-035-041-047-065-075-077-079-115-135-137- 139-155-161-177-179-192040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HENRY JAY JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE WELLS KYC015-037-041-077-117-223-192040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN KENTON TRIMBLE OHC001-003-005-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-033-037-041-045-047- 049-057-061-063-065-071-073-077-083-089-091-097-101-107-109-113- Read more

WW 26 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 191855Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 26 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Far northern Kentucky Western Ohio * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Low-topped convection should intensify and develop into a broken band of thunderstorms across eastern Indiana and far northern Kentucky, then quickly move east across western Ohio. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Muncie IN to 30 miles south of Mansfield OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24055. ...Grams Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Indiana and move rapidly east across Ohio this afternoon into early evening. Scattered severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph are most likely through about 7 PM EST from western into central Ohio. ...Ohio and surrounding areas... Convection is just now forming over Indiana, with an increase in lightning noted. Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies ahead of the cold front, and continued heating should yield a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE by late afternoon. Pressure falls are expected to accelerate just ahead of the front as shallow convection amasses. Forecast soundings show appreciable cooling will continue around 700 mb which when coupled with surface heating will yield increasing updrafts. Wind speeds around 50 kt are noted at 850 mb in upstream VWPs, which appears to be a likely value for gusts along the developing line of thunderstorms. As temperatures are warming into the 60s F, boundary-layer lapse rates are becoming steep. Indeed, latest observations indicate temperatures commonly 3-4 F above point forecast sounding values. As a result, outflow production may be enhanced with isolated gusts over 65 kt possible. Despite the low dewpoints, strong shear/veering winds with height and increasing low-level parcel buoyancy may support transient areas of rotation, resulting in enhanced wind-gust corridors or perhaps a brief/weak tornado. More information can be found in mesoscale discussion 78. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023/ ...Eastern IN and OH... A potent mid-level vorticity maximum over IL, embedded within the broader central CONUS trough, will eject east into OH through this evening. This feature will aid in sharpening an associated surface cold front that will rapidly progress east. Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to initiate across eastern IN towards early to mid-afternoon in a broken arc along the front. Within the exit region of an intense mid-level jet, this convection is expected to race east across OH through the afternoon. While SBCAPE will likely be meager, holding at or below 500 J/kg, nearly full insolation across the Lower to Middle OH Valley will yield steep 0-3 km lapse rates. This should support downward momentum transport of 50+ kt low-level winds as convection matures. Some 12Z HREF members (HRW-ARW, HRRR, and NAM-Nest) suggest boundary-layer max winds may reach 65-70 kts within rear inflow, supporting peak surface wind gusts across western to central OH. The arcing convective band will weaken after sunset as surface-based instability dwindles, but strong gusts may persist until convection dissipates in the western to central PA vicinity. Read more

MD 0078 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the middle Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 191813Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for scattered strong/severe wind gusts will increase this afternoon in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Though more marginal threats, a tornado or two and large hail may also occur. A watch is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is pivoting around the main upper-level low within the Upper-Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows this feature moving through central Illinois at present. At the surface, a broad area low pressure is present within the lower Great Lakes. A secondary cold front is now entering western Indiana with visible/infrared satellite indicating some gradual deepening of cumulus along the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s F and lower 60s F seem possible ahead of this activity. Even with these warmer temperatures than guidance forecast this morning, dewpoints have also mixed out into the low/mid 40s F. The net effect should should mean limited buoyancy of 250 to at most 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The primary concern with convection as it continues to deepen this afternoon will be strong to severe wind gusts. Storm motions coupled with 40-50 kts in the lowest 3 km (already sampled by KVWX VWP), will promote potential for wind gusts of 50-60 kts and isolated higher gusts possible. In response to the shortwave trough, some slight backing of surface winds has been noted in central Indiana. This trend should continue to the east as the wave progresses. As such, some potential for isolated tornado activity will exist. -25 C temperatures aloft could also promote marginally severe hail. ..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39228648 39408648 39558646 40368583 41068443 41168338 40928222 40518188 40008184 39308284 38698412 38468503 38588588 39228648 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) generally remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. 15-20 mph south-southwesterly surface winds could overlap 15-20 percent RH in the vicinity of a developing lee trough over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM during the afternoon. However, fuels are only modestly receptive to large-fire spread over this area -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A closed low will move across the Southwest on Friday with some cyclogenesis across the southern Plains. This will bring some breezy conditions to the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, relative humidity will likely be above 25 percent across much of the region. A lack of overlap between the stronger winds and warm/dry surface conditions precludes the need for an Elevated delineation at this time. Some dry conditions are expected near the southeast Atlantic Coast and into the northern Florida peninsula. West winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected, but should remain too light for significant fire weather concerns, especially given the mostly moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry/breezy conditions are possible across parts of AL into western GA behind an eastward-advancing cold front this afternoon. While sustained west-southwesterly surface winds around 15 mph (with gusts upwards of 30 mph) amid 30-35 percent RH would support elevated meteorological conditions, fuels should not be receptive to large-fire spread given early-day and recent precipitation. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large area of low pressure will move through the Great Lakes today with windy conditions in proximity to the surface low. However cool and/or moist conditions will preclude fire weather concerns in this area. Dry conditions will be mostly confined to the southern High Plains where winds will be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the middle Texas Coast into southern Louisiana mainly late Friday night into Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A prominent upper low will move across the Four Corners area and toward the central High Plains by 12Z Saturday, with a broad belt of strong mid to high level flow from the southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a stable air mass will exist due to high pressure extending from the Pacific Northwest across the Plains and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, a stationary front will extend roughly from Brownsville TX to Tampa FL. Minimal northward progress of this boundary is forecast Friday night, with a stable surface air mass remaining along the immediate Gulf Coast. Rain is expected to expand in coverage across the middle to upper TX Coast during the afternoon as moistening occurs aloft, with very low chances of any lightning due to warm midlevel temperatures/poor lapse rates. The greatest potential for thunderstorms will exist overnight into southern LA. Here, forecast soundings show a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE rooted just above 850 mb, and while strong deep-layer shear will exist, poor lapse rates should preclude any severe hail threat. Elsewhere, scattered convective showers may occur over parts of the Four Corners region and across northern NM during the afternoon, as heating contributes to very weak instability beneath steep lapse rates aloft. However, sporadic flashes with this weak convection is expected to remain below the general thunderstorm outlook threshold. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Indiana and move rapidly east across Ohio this afternoon into early evening. Scattered severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph are most likely between 3 to 7 PM EST in western to central Ohio. ...Eastern IN and OH... A potent mid-level vorticity maximum over IL, embedded within the broader central CONUS trough, will eject east into OH through this evening. This feature will aid in sharpening an associated surface cold front that will rapidly progress east. Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to initiate across eastern IN towards early to mid-afternoon in a broken arc along the front. Within the exit region of an intense mid-level jet, this convection is expected to race east across OH through the afternoon. While SBCAPE will likely be meager, holding at or below 500 J/kg, nearly full insolation across the Lower to Middle OH Valley will yield steep 0-3 km lapse rates. This should support downward momentum transport of 50+ kt low-level winds as convection matures. Some 12Z HREF members (HRW-ARW, HRRR, and NAM-Nest) suggest boundary-layer max winds may reach 65-70 kts within rear inflow, supporting peak surface wind gusts across western to central OH. The arcing convective band will weaken after sunset as surface-based instability dwindles, but strong gusts may persist until convection dissipates in the western to central PA vicinity. ..Grams/Flournoy/Gleason.. 01/19/2023 Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LFK TO 30 WNW IER TO 15 SSW ELD TO 25 ENE ELD TO 35 NE LIT. ..FLOURNOY..01/18/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-025-041-043-069-079-085-095-117-139-145-147-182040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PRAIRIE UNION WHITE WOODRUFF LAC013-027-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-111-115-127-182040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WINN TXC241-351-403-405-457-182040- Read more