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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue for at least the next few hours from central TX northeastward across eastern OK and western AR. Much of this will occur atop below-freezing surface temperatures, resulting in thunder sleet in several locations, including north-central TX, eastern OK, and far southwest MO, and mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet across central TX and west-central/southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorm are still possible from southern MS through southern GA this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern CA from now through tomorrow morning. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close to the southern CA coast. Farther east, midlevel ridging will persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best. The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX. Regional 12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated thunderstorms through the day. The majority of this convection will occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south in TX. Read more

MD 0114 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 301918Z - 302315Z SUMMARY...Accumulating sleet at rates up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour may become more widespread in a corridor to the south of Interstate 44, across east central Oklahoma through the Fayetteville and Branson areas of northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Continued low-level moisture return beneath modestly steep lapse rates, on the northwestern periphery of slowly building mid-level ridging (to the northwest of the subtropical ridge centered over the Caribbean), has contributed to weak destabilization across parts of the southern Great Plains. This is supporting an ongoing increase in convection with embedded thunderstorm activity near and to the east and south of the Interstate 35 and 44 corridors of eastern Oklahoma, generally along a sharp quasi-stationary lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic zone associated with a recent cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies. Along and north of this frontal zone, the surface through roughly 925 mb layer is characterized by temperatures in the mid teens to near 20 F, while a shallow layer above this air mass remains above freezing. The convection appears largely rooted above the warm nose, with associated frozen precipitation mostly reaching the surface has ice pellets/sleet. Forcing for convection appears largely due to lift associated with low/mid level warm advection and frontogenesis which are forecast to continue to develop east-northeastward across the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern Oklahoma, into northwestern Arkansas and areas of southwestern Missouri to the south of Interstate 44 through 21-23Z. Although lightning may decrease as convection gradually consolidates, sleet accumulation rates could still increase a bit further up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35679623 36469511 36829427 37109333 36879265 36309274 35999399 35429507 35149614 35679623 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast are needed. ..Supinie.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain dominant over much of the lower 48 through the forecast period. Reinforced by a cold and stable arctic airmass, widespread winter precipitation is expected over the Plains and central US. Cold temperatures, limited fuels and poor overlap of dry/windy conditions suggest fire weather concerns are minimal over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast cover much of North America early Tuesday morning, anchored by a closed low centered over the Lower CO River Valley. Confluent southwesterly flow aloft will precede this system across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Expectation is for this upper low to gradually shift southward/southwestward throughout the day, while becoming increasingly displaced south of the more progressive northern stream. Cold mid-level temperatures and persistent forcing for ascent may contribute to a few lightning strike across southwest AZ Tuesday morning. Stable conditions are expected farther east across much of the central and eastern CONUS as expansive surface ridging (extending from the central Plains through much of the OH Valley) dominates the sensible weather. Low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Gulf Coast into southeast GA and across FL, but warm temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorm development. Showers are expected throughout the day across TX, as southwesterly flow aloft persists atop a cold and shallow continental air mass. Modest elevated buoyancy is possible from the TX Hill Country into east TX, and isolated lightning flashes may occur within the deepest convective cores. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2023 Read more

The Guadalupe River in the southeastern Texas was flowing more slowly than usual at around 43 cubic feet per second and even running dry short of Canyon Lake in Comal County. Flows usually average between 100 to 00 cfs. Jacob’s Well in Wimberly has nearly stopped flowing at 0.07 cfs on Jan. 27. San Antonio Express News (Texas), Jan 27, 2023

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close to the southern CA coast. Farther east, midlevel ridging will persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best. The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX. Regional 12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated thunderstorms through the day. The majority of this convection will occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south in TX. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 01/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Expect a few areas of transient elevated conditions across southeastern Arizona into central New Mexico. However, moist to marginally dry fuels across the region will keep fire risk below Elevated criteria. ..Supinie.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns across the CONUS are low through the forecast period. A cold and stable arctic airmass behind a cold front near the Gulf Coast will support very cold temperatures and widespread winter precipitation over the central and southern US. Isolated pockets of dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southwest into NM and eastern AZ. However, poorly receptive fuels and the sporadic coverage of any fire-weather conditions will remain below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

State officials discussed the future of the Colorado River Basin at the annual Colorado River Water Users Association conference and acknowledge that the river was in a state of emergency that will soon be a crisis for the 40 million people who depend on it, whether for agriculture or municipalities. The problem is so great that a solution requires all parties in the basin to conserve. Colorado River water authorities have a Feb. 1 deadline for submitting their agreement to the Interior Department on a way to trim water use to avoid having water cuts imposed on them. E&E News (Arlington, Va.), Dec 19, 2022 Lakes Mead and Powell on the Colorado River have fallen so low amid years of drought that major water cuts will be needed in 2023 to lower the danger of supplies becoming too low for power production and continued water deliveries. The needed cuts may amount to 2 million to 4 million acre-feet in 2023, a top water official said during a Senate hearing. The Bureau of Reclamation is conferring with the seven Colorado River Basin states that rely on the river to come up with a plan for reducing water use in the next 60 days. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), June 14, 2022

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST TX EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong-severe storms are possible through this evening from southeast Texas eastward along the northern Gulf coast. ...Southeast TX to the northern Gulf coast through this evening... A marine warm front has drifted northward to near Houston, and extends eastward along the LA coast to the extreme northeast Gulf of Mexico. This boundary is unlikely to move much farther north, given continued reinforcement of the cool air north of the boundary by widespread rainfall. South of the boundary, surface dewpoints of 68-70 F characterize the warm sector, with temperatures in the low-mid 70s, which are contributing the MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is sufficient for supercells, though hodographs are largely straight and low-level shear will remain relatively weak. The peak for thunderstorm coverage will occur this afternoon as a diffuse midlevel trough ejects east-northeastward over TX, with a gradual decrease expected this evening into tonight along the marine front inland from the northern Gulf coast. The severe threat will be on the lower margins for an outlook area, given poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively weak low-level shear. ..Thompson.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle... Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough entering TX Hill Country/South TX. This lead shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, moving across central and east TX and into the Lower MS Valley. A broad area of low-level warm-air advection precedes this shortwave, supporting elevated showers and thunderstorms from southeast TX across much of the Lower MS Valley and into the central Gulf Coast. Recent surface analysis places the main frontal low near TYR in northeast TX, but another more subtle secondary low appears to be centered about 20 mi north of VCT. A warm front arcs northeastward and then eastward from this second low, delineating a more maritime air mass characterized by low/mid 70s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. This warm and moist air mass would be more supportive of surface-based storms with any storms to its north expected to remain elevated. Inland penetration of this more maritime air mass will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and continuing precipitation, likely confining the risk for surface-based storms to the middle and upper TX Coast, and perhaps the immediate coastal portions of southwest LA, this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind gusts associated with bowing line segments are the primary severe risk with these surface-based storms, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. The maritime air mass is expected to continue moving inland this evening father east across portions of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. Warm-air advection will likely remain the primary forcing mechanism, keeping the majority of storms elevated north of more buoyant air mass. That being said, mesoscale ascent attendant to the eastward-progressing secondary low could still support a few surface-based storms. The environment is expected to remain favorable for bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 29 19:50:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 29 19:50:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 29 19:50:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cold and stable arctic airmass is forecast to remain in place over much of the Plains and central CONUS D2/Mon. Broad southwesterly flow will remain strong over portions of the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry surface conditions should remain confined to portions of the southern and western NM deserts where fuel availability is low owing to recent precipitation. Thus, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A cold, continental air mass will continue to sag slowly southeastward from KY to the northwest Gulf coast on Monday, and a diffuse boundary will extend east-west from the northern Gulf coast to the southeast Atlantic coast. Aloft, west-southwest flow will persist from northern Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic, and a midlevel low will dig south-southeastward near the southern CA coast. Some shallow convection is expected near the southern CA coast, but buoyancy magnitude/depth will be very marginal for thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms may continue through the day along the diffuse boundary across the Gulf/southeast Atlantic coastal areas. Forecast soundings show weak-moderate buoyancy and straight hodographs which could support some storm organization. However, forcing for ascent will weaken with time and storm coverage is expected to remain isolated at best. Farther west, there will be a low chance for elevated thunderstorms across parts of OK/TX/AR with weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb, and in association with subtle speed maxima ejecting east-northeastward during the day and then again early Tuesday morning. The midlevel convection could produce brief bursts of sleet in OK and a mix of sleet/freezing rain closer to the front, but buoyancy profiles will be marginal for charge separation/lightning production. ..Thompson.. 01/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas eastward along the middle Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas. Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two could occur across the region. ...Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle... Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough entering TX Hill Country/South TX. This lead shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, moving across central and east TX and into the Lower MS Valley. A broad area of low-level warm-air advection precedes this shortwave, supporting elevated showers and thunderstorms from southeast TX across much of the Lower MS Valley and into the central Gulf Coast. Recent surface analysis places the main frontal low near TYR in northeast TX, but another more subtle secondary low appears to be centered about 20 mi north of VCT. A warm front arcs northeastward and then eastward from this second low, delineating a more maritime air mass characterized by low/mid 70s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. This warm and moist air mass would be more supportive of surface-based storms with any storms to its north expected to remain elevated. Inland penetration of this more maritime air mass will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and continuing precipitation, likely confining the risk for surface-based storms to the middle and upper TX Coast, and perhaps the immediate coastal portions of southwest LA, this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind gusts associated with bowing line segments are the primary severe risk with these surface-based storms, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. The maritime air mass is expected to continue moving inland this evening father east across portions of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. Warm-air advection will likely remain the primary forcing mechanism, keeping the majority of storms elevated north of more buoyant air mass. That being said, mesoscale ascent attendant to the eastward-progressing secondary low could still support a few surface-based storms. The environment is expected to remain favorable for bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft is forecast to gradually increase over the western CONUS Sunday as low-amplitude ridging strengthens over the east. An upper low along the west coast will gradually amplify increasing flow aloft over portions of the Southwest. A cold front will move south through the plains as surface high pressure strengthens over the northern Rockies. While cold arctic air will limit fire-weather potential over much of the Plains, dry and windy conditions should remain somewhat sheltered across portions of southern NM and far west TX ahead of the front. Southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and RH below 20% will be common. However, recent precipitation has limited fuel availability such that any fire-weather conditions are likely to remain very localized and below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft is forecast to gradually increase over the western CONUS Sunday as low-amplitude ridging strengthens over the east. An upper low along the west coast will gradually amplify increasing flow aloft over portions of the Southwest. A cold front will move south through the plains as surface high pressure strengthens over the northern Rockies. While cold arctic air will limit fire-weather potential over much of the Plains, dry and windy conditions should remain somewhat sheltered across portions of southern NM and far west TX ahead of the front. Southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and RH below 20% will be common. However, recent precipitation has limited fuel availability such that any fire-weather conditions are likely to remain very localized and below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Cloud seeding is a measure that Utah researchers and the state government were exploring to increase snowpack and smowmelt runoff to fill reservoirs and rivers. Utah Public Radio (Logan, Utah), Jan 26, 2023

A building moratorium was in effect for the town of Stockton in Tooele County because water supplies are low, and Stockton needs $2.4 million from the Utah Legislature for a new well. Deseret News (Salt Lake City, Utah), Jan 26, 2023