Aggregator

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-065-079-095-101-103-107-117-127-133- 137-147-163-177-187-191-195-051500- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH ONSLOW PAMLICO PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-051500- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-065-079-095-101-103-107-117-127-133- 137-147-163-177-187-191-195-051500- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH ONSLOW PAMLICO PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-051500- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051400- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051400- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051400- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051400- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051400- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051400- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several brief tornadoes remain possible across eastern North Carolina through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Major changes to upgrade and expand tornado probabilities. Tornadic supercells have been observed this morning off the Wilmington 88-D with several debris signatures near the NC/SC border area. Numerous supercells should continue to be embedded within multiple arcing outer bands of Hurricane Dorian. These bands should gradually shift north through the day with a persistent threat for several brief tornadoes. Latest guidance has trended more aggressive with destabilization across the coastal plain of NC where low to mid 70s surface dew points are common at present. Only weak boundary-layer heating north of the ongoing convective bands will be needed to boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This should compensate for comparatively smaller low-level hodographs with northern extent in northeast NC/southeast VA and could support a midday/early afternoon uptick in tornado potential north of the coastal bands. The tornado threat tonight will become confined to the Outer Banks and northeast NC region as Dorian continues to progress northeastward. ...OR vicinity... In the wake of scattered elevated thunderstorms spreading north this morning, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected at peak heating. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern CA coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible with an elevated cluster this morning and with any elevated convection that can redevelop this evening. Ongoing elevated storms across northwest to north-central MN in association with a ribbon of 700-mb warm advection attendant to a leading shortwave impulse should subside as the impulse decays today. However, a quick-moving upstream impulse over southwest SK will aid in mid-level height falls and DCVA overspreading northeast MN and northern WI towards evening. Modest elevated buoyancy and robust speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support a couple rotating updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several brief tornadoes remain possible across eastern North Carolina through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Major changes to upgrade and expand tornado probabilities. Tornadic supercells have been observed this morning off the Wilmington 88-D with several debris signatures near the NC/SC border area. Numerous supercells should continue to be embedded within multiple arcing outer bands of Hurricane Dorian. These bands should gradually shift north through the day with a persistent threat for several brief tornadoes. Latest guidance has trended more aggressive with destabilization across the coastal plain of NC where low to mid 70s surface dew points are common at present. Only weak boundary-layer heating north of the ongoing convective bands will be needed to boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This should compensate for comparatively smaller low-level hodographs with northern extent in northeast NC/southeast VA and could support a midday/early afternoon uptick in tornado potential north of the coastal bands. The tornado threat tonight will become confined to the Outer Banks and northeast NC region as Dorian continues to progress northeastward. ...OR vicinity... In the wake of scattered elevated thunderstorms spreading north this morning, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected at peak heating. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern CA coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible with an elevated cluster this morning and with any elevated convection that can redevelop this evening. Ongoing elevated storms across northwest to north-central MN in association with a ribbon of 700-mb warm advection attendant to a leading shortwave impulse should subside as the impulse decays today. However, a quick-moving upstream impulse over southwest SK will aid in mid-level height falls and DCVA overspreading northeast MN and northern WI towards evening. Modest elevated buoyancy and robust speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support a couple rotating updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several brief tornadoes remain possible across eastern North Carolina through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Major changes to upgrade and expand tornado probabilities. Tornadic supercells have been observed this morning off the Wilmington 88-D with several debris signatures near the NC/SC border area. Numerous supercells should continue to be embedded within multiple arcing outer bands of Hurricane Dorian. These bands should gradually shift north through the day with a persistent threat for several brief tornadoes. Latest guidance has trended more aggressive with destabilization across the coastal plain of NC where low to mid 70s surface dew points are common at present. Only weak boundary-layer heating north of the ongoing convective bands will be needed to boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This should compensate for comparatively smaller low-level hodographs with northern extent in northeast NC/southeast VA and could support a midday/early afternoon uptick in tornado potential north of the coastal bands. The tornado threat tonight will become confined to the Outer Banks and northeast NC region as Dorian continues to progress northeastward. ...OR vicinity... In the wake of scattered elevated thunderstorms spreading north this morning, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected at peak heating. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern CA coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible with an elevated cluster this morning and with any elevated convection that can redevelop this evening. Ongoing elevated storms across northwest to north-central MN in association with a ribbon of 700-mb warm advection attendant to a leading shortwave impulse should subside as the impulse decays today. However, a quick-moving upstream impulse over southwest SK will aid in mid-level height falls and DCVA overspreading northeast MN and northern WI towards evening. Modest elevated buoyancy and robust speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support a couple rotating updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/05/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0636 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING AS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVES NORTH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING AS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVES NORTH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051040Z - 051145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The primary outer convective band to Hurricane Dorian will continue to move north and approach Cape Lookout later this morning. Supercells embedded within the band will pose a tornado risk. A new tornado watch is likely by 8am EDT. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the north periphery of the rain shield associated with Hurricane Dorian steadily moving northward across southern coastal NC. Where buoyancy is greatest, cellular convection in the outer rain band has resulted in training supercells. The KLTX VAD shows an enlarged hodograph and the wind profile will strengthen over the next few hours farther north. The KMHX VAD is beginning to show hodograph enlargement during the past hour. Based on observational trends over southern coastal NC, it appears tornado potential is greatest where an influx of richer low-level moisture from the maritime tropical airmass is able to spread inland. The maritime warm front will probably move to as far inland as the mouths of the sounds located west of the barrier islands and may aid in focusing the tornado threat. Some tornado risk will probably exist farther west but the slightly cooler temperatures may otherwise limit the tornado risk compared to the more-buoyant airmass located near the immediate coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 09/05/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34897865 35557818 36037754 35897560 35267456 34227577 33937695 34737774 34897865 Read more

MD 1927 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 635... FOR NC CAPE FEAR VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...NC Cape Fear vicinity Concerning...Tornado Watch 635... Valid 051000Z - 051100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 635 continues. SUMMARY...Training supercells with tornado potential maximized near and north of Cape Fear for the next hour. Experimental tornado data showing peak wind speeds 100-130mph range for the strongest tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows two outer bands on the northern envelope of Hurricane Dorian located near the border of the SC/NC coast. The maritime warm front has infiltrated the immediate coastal counties with observed surface conditions showing temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees F and middle-upper 70s dewpoints. This is resulting in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per RAP forecast soundings. Additionally, the KLTX VAD is showing around 300 m2/s^2 0-1km SRH when accounting for observed storm motion. A recently tornadic circulation (TDS signature) over Brunswick County, NC likely possessed peak wind speeds between 100-130mph according to experimental tornado data. It seems plausible additional supercell tornadoes will probably develop or move onshore during the next 1-2 hours as the outer band gradually shifts slowly north. ..Smith.. 09/05/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM... LAT...LON 34237874 34337761 34127726 33897747 34057857 34237874 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:54:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 09:38:50 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is a little to the right of the last advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050848 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 12(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) X(20) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050848 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 119.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050848 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 119.1W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 119.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move to the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed on Friday and should continue this motion through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to resume today and further weakening is expected during the next several days. Juliette should weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 20.2, -119.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low through most of the 4-8 period, but at least a modest severe threat could evolve day 5 over a portion of the central Plains. Day 4 (Sunday) - A low amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify further as it moves through the upper MS Valley, with shortwave ridging building across the central Plains. Most thunderstorms Sunday are expected to remain on cool side of a warm front from the central and northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Other storms will likely develop across the Rockies where moisture and instability will be limited. Day 5 (Monday) - It still appears that severe potential may undergo some increase over the central Plains day 6 (Monday) in association with an ejecting shortwave trough. Antecedent conditions will be characterized by widespread storms developing along cool side of a warm front which lowers confidence in destabilization potential. However, modest destabilization may occur from southwest SD through western NE and KS in vicinity of a lee trough during the afternoon. Vertical wind profiles will become supportive of organized storms including a few supercells. Primary uncertainty at this time is evolution of morning activity which will affect afternoon thermodynamics. Day 6 (Tuesday) - Overall severe threat should remain low to modest as the shortwave trough undergoes significant weakening over the upper MS valley and weak shortwave ridging builds over the Plains. A few strong storms with gusty winds could develop along a boundary from the Midwest into the central Plains, but predictability is low at this time. Read more