SPC Sep 3, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds will continue across parts of the Upper Midwest through early Tuesday morning, with the most likely corridor from west-central into southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. A low tornado risk will also continue through the overnight hours along parts of the Florida east coast in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A small but well organized bow echo that produced multiple measured severe wind gusts across central/eastern ND earlier this afternoon will continue southeastward into parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Greater surface-based instability will likely remain displaced to the south of this line of storms. Even so, a 40-50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet and strengthening winds in the 700-500 mb layer associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward over the northern Plains will likely support continued storm organization and intensity tonight. Given the linear storm mode, severe winds will likely remain the primary threat, with the greatest damaging wind threat across parts of southern/central MN into west-central WI along an instability gradient. Isolated significant severe wind gusts of 65+ kt may occur in this corridor given the strength of the low and mid-level winds. A tornado or two will also remain possible, particularly if the southern flank of the line can ingest more buoyant low-level air near/just north of a surface warm front. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that developed earlier today across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a surface cold front should continue to weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating. However, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds associated with these storms may remain possible in the short term (next 1-2 hours) as 35-40 kt of mid-level flow and similar values of effective bulk shear remain over this region. ...Florida Atlantic Coast... Hurricane Dorian is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move slowly west-northwestward through early Tuesday morning. Dorian will likely remain far enough offshore to limit the overall tornado threat. Still, low-level hodographs should gain some additional length/curvature overnight as winds strengthen along the east coast of the FL Peninsula. Any low-topped cells that can develop in outer convective rainbands might pose a risk for a brief tornado. ..Gleason.. 09/03/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 3, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds will continue across parts of the Upper Midwest through early Tuesday morning, with the most likely corridor from west-central into southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. A low tornado risk will also continue through the overnight hours along parts of the Florida east coast in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A small but well organized bow echo that produced multiple measured severe wind gusts across central/eastern ND earlier this afternoon will continue southeastward into parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Greater surface-based instability will likely remain displaced to the south of this line of storms. Even so, a 40-50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet and strengthening winds in the 700-500 mb layer associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward over the northern Plains will likely support continued storm organization and intensity tonight. Given the linear storm mode, severe winds will likely remain the primary threat, with the greatest damaging wind threat across parts of southern/central MN into west-central WI along an instability gradient. Isolated significant severe wind gusts of 65+ kt may occur in this corridor given the strength of the low and mid-level winds. A tornado or two will also remain possible, particularly if the southern flank of the line can ingest more buoyant low-level air near/just north of a surface warm front. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that developed earlier today across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a surface cold front should continue to weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating. However, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds associated with these storms may remain possible in the short term (next 1-2 hours) as 35-40 kt of mid-level flow and similar values of effective bulk shear remain over this region. ...Florida Atlantic Coast... Hurricane Dorian is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move slowly west-northwestward through early Tuesday morning. Dorian will likely remain far enough offshore to limit the overall tornado threat. Still, low-level hodographs should gain some additional length/curvature overnight as winds strengthen along the east coast of the FL Peninsula. Any low-topped cells that can develop in outer convective rainbands might pose a risk for a brief tornado. ..Gleason.. 09/03/2019 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE VVV TO 15 S AXN TO 25 NE AXN TO 15 NW BRD TO 45 SW HIB. ..EDWARDS..09/03/19 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-045-049-053-055- 059-065-067-079-085-093-095-097-103-109-115-121-123-129-131-139- 141-143-145-147-149-151-153-157-163-169-171-030240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CROW WING DAKOTA DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LE SUEUR MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET OLMSTED PINE POPE RAMSEY RENVILLE RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE STEVENS SWIFT TODD WABASHA WASHINGTON WINONA WRIGHT WIC005-011-013-017-019-033-035-053-063-091-093-095-107-109-119- 121-129-030240- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VVV TO 25 SW AXN TO 10 WSW AXN TO 10 N AXN. ..EDWARDS..09/03/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-030240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE SDC109-030240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROBERTS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VVV TO 25 SW AXN TO 10 WSW AXN TO 10 N AXN. ..EDWARDS..09/03/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-030240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE SDC109-030240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROBERTS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VVV TO 25 SW AXN TO 10 WSW AXN TO 10 N AXN. ..EDWARDS..09/03/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-030240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE SDC109-030240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROBERTS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VVV TO 25 SW AXN TO 10 WSW AXN TO 10 N AXN. ..EDWARDS..09/03/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-030240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE SDC109-030240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROBERTS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632

5 years 10 months ago
WW 632 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 022105Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized convective line will continue to accelerate generally southeastward with further intensification possible. Damaging winds along with severe hail can be expected through evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Fargo ND to 25 miles southeast of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JMS TO 25 SW JMS TO 15 SE JMS. ..EDWARDS..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-047-022340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE LOGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JMS TO 25 SW JMS TO 15 SE JMS. ..EDWARDS..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-047-022340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE LOGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JMS TO 25 SW JMS TO 15 SE JMS. ..EDWARDS..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-047-022340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE LOGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 1917

5 years 10 months ago
MD 1917 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northeast Iowa into extreme southwestern Wisconsin into extreme northwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022337Z - 030100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few semi-discrete to discrete storms may become established across the discussion area. Any storm that can further intensify and sustain itself may produce large hail, and possibly damaging gusts or a brief tornado. Given the sparse storm coverage, a WW issuance is not expected at this time for this round of convection. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, convection has struggled to intensify and become sustained in the WAA regime across northeast IA given the overall lack of low-level convergence. Recently though, a few cells have intensified, with a discrete storm in Floyd County, IA having lasted nearly an hour, with 35-45 kft tops. Should this storm (or any cell in close proximity) further intensify, 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and up to 45 knots of effective bulk shear suggest that supercellular structure may be achieved, with at least marginally severe hail potentially accompanying storm cores. In addition, 0-3km CAPE downstream and increasing SRH with the approach of a synopically driven LLJ may foster the potential for low-level rotation. Should storms intensify and root thoroughly into the boundary layer, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may also occur. Nonetheless, convective coverage in this particular regime is expected to be sparse in the short term, with a WW issuance unlikely. ..Squitieri/Broyles.. 09/02/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42679273 43039317 43359303 43509222 43149086 42698989 42278946 41958964 41809030 41959143 42399240 42679273 Read more

SPC MD 1916

5 years 10 months ago
MD 1916 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ND...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SD...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN WI.
Mesoscale Discussion 1916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Areas affected...portions of extreme southeastern ND...extreme northeastern SD...central/southern MN...western WI. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632... Valid 022325Z - 030100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 continues. SUMMARY...A severe bow echo and related complex of convection will continue to translate southeastward across the remainder of watch 632 over the next 1-2 hours. The related severe-wind threat will persist farther southeastward toward parts of western WI through the evening, and another watch will be coordinated with affected local NWS offices soon. DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis shows a warm front from northwestern SD southeastward near a low over west-central SD, then east-southeastward to eastward across the FSD area and extreme northern IA. The warm front is forecast to move slowly northward through the remainder of the evening. However, the air mass north of the warm front only gradually stabilizes with northward extent at the surface. That stable layer also is shallow, based on modified model soundings and the ability of the complex to penetrate that stable layer with multiple significant-severe gusts in Stutsman County SD. Objective mesoanalysis data appear to be underdone with MUCAPE north of the surface warm front, based on the behavior of the convection so far. The low levels above the shallow stable layer will become more favorable as warm advection continues and perhaps strengthens somewhat, with an intensifying preconvective LLJ in mass response to the upshear shortwave trough aloft. Meanwhile, 45-60-kt effective-shear vectors, aligned nearly parallel to the theta-e/instability gradient, will support a continued southeastward thrust of a cold pool that already is accompanied by a robust thermal/isallobaric perturbation. Given these factors, another severe thunderstorm watch will be required. ..Edwards.. 09/02/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46029867 46189773 46579691 47019667 47309666 47509679 46189235 45549116 44929129 44539198 44029320 44099439 44599564 45639766 45969838 46029867 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Juliette, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JMS TO 40 ESE JMS TO 35 WNW FAR TO 45 SSW GFK TO 25 SSW GFK TO 35 SSE GFK TO 25 W BJI. ..EDWARDS..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-011-027-051-057-087-107-111-155-159-167-022340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BIG STONE CLAY GRANT HUBBARD MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC003-017-073-077-081-097-022340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL SDC091-109-022340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632

5 years 10 months ago
WW 632 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 022105Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized convective line will continue to accelerate generally southeastward with further intensification possible. Damaging winds along with severe hail can be expected through evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Fargo ND to 25 miles southeast of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JMS TO 25 SW JMS TO 15 SE JMS. ..EDWARDS..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-047-022340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE LOGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631

5 years 10 months ago
WW 631 SEVERE TSTM ND 021820Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon with a convective line likely organizing and moving east-southeastward across central North Dakota. Large hail will be the most common risk, although wind damage potential may increase by mid/late afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Garrison ND to 35 miles north of Jamestown ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Guyer Read more

Triple Nickle (Wildfire)

5 years 10 months ago
Recent rains have created very favorable conditions, allowing Fire managers from the Cibola National Forest and National Grasslands to manage a lightning caused fire for resource benefit on the Mt. Taylor Ranger District. The Triple Nickle Fire is being carefully monitored and managed as it burns naturally in the ecosystem, promoting forest health and resilience while reducing the potential for future catastrophic wildfires. Along with burning unwanted dead and down woody material, it will remove encroaching conifer trees from historic open meadows, increase plant diversity, improve wildlife habitat, and restore the natural fire regime.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BIS TO 35 ENE BIS TO 50 ENE BIS TO 30 WNW JMS TO 25 NW JMS TO 40 NNW JMS TO 30 S DVL TO 20 S DVL TO 30 SE DVL. THIS BOWING COMPLEX, WITH A HISTORY OF ISOLATED MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS REACHING SURFACE, WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 631 (INCLUDING ADDED COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST) AND INTO NEW WW 632. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915. ..EDWARDS..09/02/19 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-031-043-045-047-093-022240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY FOSTER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN STUTSMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more