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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is largely on track. A consensus of GFS, RAP, and ECMWF guidance suggests RH may be in the 20-30% range across northeastern New Mexico and the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with gusts of 20-25 mph. When combined with marginally dry fine fuels, any elevated fire risk in this region will be localized and transient. See the previous forecast for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging is forecast to weaken quickly and shift eastward as mostly zonal westerly flow returns across the southern Plains. A shortwave trough embedded within the modest westerly flow is expected to cross the southern Rockies D2/Friday afternoon. In response to weak height falls and a slight increase in mid-level flow, a surface lee low should form across portions of southeastern CO and western KS. Aided by locally stronger downslope flow, southwest surface winds over portions of eastern NM and the western Panhandles may gust to 20 mph through the afternoon. Diurnal mixing may also support afternoon RH values below 30%. Despite the somewhat favorable meteorological conditions, recent precipitation and cold weather have limited available fuels. Some drying will likely occur as the remnant arctic airmass is quickly modified by the increase in downslope flow. However, the limited available fuels and localized nature of any fire-weather conditions suggests concerns will be low through the forecast period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Friday. ...Florida Peninsula... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Friday, as a cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. Along/south of the front, relatively rich low-level moisture will support modest buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with rather strong midlevel flow supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. However, very weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, while weakening and veering low-level flow will limit frontal convergence and storm coverage. Given these negative factors, thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the front is expected to be isolated at best, with limited severe potential, though locally gusty winds may accompany the strongest convection across the FL Peninsula during the morning/afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED NDFD GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Panhandle late tonight, perhaps accompanied by gusty winds. ...Synopsis... Split flow across the eastern Pacific has become less amplified, with one generally zonal belt emanating from the southern mid-latitudes likely to become increasingly influential across the U.S. today into this weekend. This will coincide with the eastward acceleration of the prominent downstream Arctic low, which has been centered near/northeast of Hudson Bay for the past week or so, and the suppression of the subtropical ridging which has been centered over the Caribbean vicinity. In response to a couple of vigorous short wave impulses digging around its western and southern periphery, the Arctic low is forecast to redevelop southward and southeastward, across Hudson Bay into Quebec, today through tonight, within larger-scale mid-level troughing amplifying southward across much of the Northeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by the initiation of strong surface cyclogenesis across southern Quebec through the lower St. Lawrence Valley, and a significant trailing intrusion of cold air across most areas east of the Rockies. An initially stalled or slower moving lead front across the Southeast into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may slowly accelerate southeastward across much of the remainder of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic Coast states (including northern Florida) later today through tonight, before increasingly being overtaken by the trailing front. This will occur as an upstream short wave trough continues to progress eastward, in phase with a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. However, this perturbation will become increasingly sheared within an increasingly confluent regime across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, and any associated wave development along the surface front is still forecast to remain quite weak. ...Florida Panhandle vicinity... Along/ahead of the lead surface front, mid/upper 60s F surface dew points spreading inland across coastal areas between Apalachicola and Pensacola will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization today. However, CAPE is likely to remain weak, with convective development suppressed due to warm layers with weak lapse rates aloft, associated with the subtropical ridging. It is possible that forcing for ascent may increase in close proximity to the surface front as it begins to advance eastward through the Florida Panhandle late this evening and overnight. Coupled with cooling aloft, this may support increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, by this time, low-level hodographs are forecast to become more linear, with wind fields in the lowest few kilometers above ground level remaining somewhat modest (on the order of 30-40 kt around 850 mb). While a couple of storms with gusty winds approaching severe limits might not be out of the question, the risk for severe weather appears generally low. ..Kerr.. 02/02/2023 Read more

The 2002 drought promoted the infestation of pests like the spruce beetle, which prey on larger Engelmann spruce trees in the Rio Grande National Forest. Without adequate moisture, the trees become stressed and cannot produce resin, a sticky defense mechanism against the beetle larva. The mountain pine beetle devastated lodgepole pine populations and attacked ponderosas, too. Robust beetle populations have killed healthy, mature conifers since the 2005 outbreaks. The Durango Herald (Colo.), Feb 1, 2023

The 2002 drought promoted the infestation of pests like the spruce beetle, which prey on larger Engelmann spruce trees in the Rio Grande National Forest. Without adequate moisture, the trees become stressed and cannot produce resin, a sticky defense mechanism against the beetle larva. The mountain pine beetle devastated lodgepole pine populations and attacked ponderosas, too. Robust beetle populations have killed healthy, mature conifers since the 2005 outbreaks. The Durango Herald (Colo.), Feb 1, 2023

Calves and yearlings sold early late last summer were lighter than usual as drought dried up pastures, and feed was expensive. The number of cattle sold at a Dalhart auction in late summer 2022 was about 35% more than normal. KAMR-TV NBC 4 Amarillo (Texas), Jan 30, 2023

Calves and yearlings sold early late last summer were lighter than usual as drought dried up pastures, and feed was expensive. The number of cattle sold at a Dalhart auction in late summer 2022 was about 35% more than normal. KAMR-TV NBC 4 Amarillo (Texas), Jan 30, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 1 20:19:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. No changes have been made to the outlook; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023/ ...Discussion... An upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula, contributing to broad southwesterly flow aloft which will persist across the southern Plains today. This southwesterly flow aloft supports a large area of stratiform precipitation extending from far west TX eastward/northeastward through the Arklatex towards the Mid-South. The upper low is forecast more progressive today through tomorrow morning, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. As it does warm-air advection/isentropic ascent will increase ahead of it over the southern Plains, with an attendant increase in elevated buoyancy. This buoyancy supports the potential for deeper convective elements capable of lightning production, mainly after 06Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is largely on track. Dry, breezy conditions are possible across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon on Thursday. However, any elevated fire risk, should it occur at all, will be brief and localized, especially given marginally dry 1-hr fuels. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 02/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough over the southern Plains will support widespread wintry precipitation over much of the central and eastern CONUS D2/Thursday. As the upper-level system continues eastward, slow modification of the surface arctic airmass is expected. However, weak surface winds, high humidity and recent precipitation will preclude fire-weather potential across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0123 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Areas affected...north-central Texas...northwest Texas...and portions of Southwest Texas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 011735Z - 012130Z SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain will persist into the afternoon from north-central Texas to near Abilene and east of Midland. DISCUSSION...A band of relatively concentrated precipitation has developed from west of San Angelo to northern Texas. This is forming in a zone of weak frontogenesis and warm air advection around 700mb. This will favor heavier precipitation rates in this corridor through the afternoon. The heaviest rates are expected by late afternoon as frontogenesis strengthens and focuses in this region. The last several HRRR runs suggest a mesoscale corridor of total QPF in excess of 0.75 inches. Observations this morning have shown a mix of sleet and freezing rain, but this is expected to transition to mostly freezing rain this afternoon as the cold air becomes more shallow. Icing is expected across most of this region with more significant icing possible where any banding can develop later this afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 02/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32279987 31340090 30670155 30630181 30840188 30930209 31080224 32160156 32870098 33479954 33739759 33729649 33469581 33059609 32679708 32359869 32279987 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHWEST GA...... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible across the Florida Panhandle and parts of southern Alabama and southwest Georgia, mainly late Thursday night into early Friday morning. ...Parts of the central Gulf Coast... A mid/upper-level trough initially over the southern High Plains is forecast to move eastward toward the Southeast states and begin to weaken Thursday into Thursday night, as it moves into a confluent upper-level flow regime. Richer low-level moisture will gradually spread northward into parts of southern LA/MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, in advance of a weak surface wave that is forecast to develop along a nearly stationary front near the LA Gulf Coast and move east-northeastward Thursday night into Friday morning. The potential for organized convection appears limited for most of the forecast period. While deep-layer flow/shear will be rather strong, weak midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to remain less than 500 J/kg. In addition, with stronger large-scale ascent not expected to arrive until late in the period, convection will generally be elevated north of the front for most of the day, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. The greatest relative risk for a few stronger storms is expected late Thursday night into early Friday morning across southern AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, as the primary mid/upper-level trough approaches and somewhat stronger ascent overspreads the warm sector. Isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms in this area. ..Dean.. 02/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... An upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula, contributing to broad southwesterly flow aloft which will persist across the southern Plains today. This southwesterly flow aloft supports a large area of stratiform precipitation extending from far west TX eastward/northeastward through the Arklatex towards the Mid-South. The upper low is forecast more progressive today through tomorrow morning, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. As it does warm-air advection/isentropic ascent will increase ahead of it over the southern Plains, with an attendant increase in elevated buoyancy. This buoyancy supports the potential for deeper convective elements capable of lightning production, mainly after 06Z. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/01/2023 Read more

The agricultural community in western New York was still feeling the effects of last summer’s drought, which left the ground dry. Sugar maple trees may not have received as much moisture as they could have used, so there was concern that they may not produce as much sap. Maple season is opening earlier than the usual mid-February start. Rochester First (N.Y.), Jan 31, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 31 20:13:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0120 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 312011Z - 010015Z SUMMARY...Light to moderate sleet and freezing rain is expected into the early evening across the middle Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...An area of light to moderate precipitation associated with frontogenesis/isentropic ascent continues to spread east across Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s where the heaviest precipitation is currently falling. Current observations show a mixture of sleet and freezing rain across the region. RAP forecast soundings show thermodynamic profiles mostly favorable for freezing rain south of Memphis and sleet north of Memphis. Areas which remain freezing rain through the afternoon/evening could receive significant ice accretion while areas with sleet could receive significant sleet accumulation. Locally higher amounts are also possible as the HRRR has trended farther north with QPF between 12Z and 18Z, which is supported by upstream radar observations. This northward shift could lead to a mesoscale region of QPF approaching 0.5 inches in the Memphis metro area. Icy precipitation is beginning now in the Memphis metro area and will continue through the evening commute. ..Bentley.. 01/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34569363 36269325 36519156 36419004 36388941 36018833 35038876 34329006 34209251 34239332 34569363 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm area from central TX into the Ark-La-Tex region has been removed. Lightning activity has recently diminished within the area of precipitation moving across AR and northeast TX. While a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out for the remainder of this afternoon from northeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss region, increasingly scant elevated buoyancy should generally limit the thunderstorm threat for the remainder of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023/ ...Discussion... Stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the CONUS as high surface pressure dominates the sensible weather. The only exceptions are across portions of the southern Plains, where persistent southwesterly flow is contributing to a broad area of precipitation, and southwest AZ, where an upper low is promoting some rain showers. The southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Plains also supports a warm noise above the shallow and cold air mass in place, resulting in modest elevated buoyancy and occasional instances of thunder sleet/freezing rain. Profiles from the latest guidance support a persistence of this thunder potential northeastward into more of eastern OK and western/central AR. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. No changes are needed. ..Supinie.. 01/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are again minimal as an upper low continues to dig south across portions of the south-central CONUS and northern Mexico. As the low ejects east, a secondary surge of cold air will reinforce the airmass across much of the central and eastern US. This cold arctic air along with widespread wintry precipitation will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions over the majority of the country. With fuels unlikely to be receptive to spread, fire weather appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An mid/upper-level low initially over Baja California is forecast to move eastward and gradually weaken on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. A broad precipitation plume is expected to develop north of a surface front across much of Texas toward the Ark-La-Miss region. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes within this precipitation plume, especially Wednesday evening into the overnight hours as the primary upper system approaches the region. Convectively enhanced winter precipitation will again be possible across parts of central/north TX into southeast OK/western AR. A separate area of elevated convection may develop near or just offshore of the upper TX coast prior to 12Z Thursday, in closer proximity to the surface front and deeper moisture above the frontal inversion. Despite the presence of rather strong deep-layer flow/shear, instability is expected to remain too weak for a severe threat, with any stronger storms expected to remain offshore. ..Dean.. 01/31/2023 Read more