SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the northern Rockies Friday. ...Northern Rockies region... A shortwave trough will suppress the northern periphery of an upper ridge and continue through the northern Rockies Friday. Boundary layer dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE where sufficient heating of the surface layer occurs. Vertical wind profiles accompanying the upper trough with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear will generally promote multicells. Widely scattered high-based storms will likely develop over the mountains and spread east into a portion of the High Plains. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles suggest few of the storms might produce locally strong wind gusts from mid afternoon through mid evening. ...North Carolina Coast... The center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast by the National Hurricane center to be over the NC outer banks early Friday, but will continue northeast away from shore during the day. Therefore, the more favorable quadrant for isolated tornadoes should remain offshore with minimal threat inland. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the northern Rockies Friday. ...Northern Rockies region... A shortwave trough will suppress the northern periphery of an upper ridge and continue through the northern Rockies Friday. Boundary layer dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE where sufficient heating of the surface layer occurs. Vertical wind profiles accompanying the upper trough with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear will generally promote multicells. Widely scattered high-based storms will likely develop over the mountains and spread east into a portion of the High Plains. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles suggest few of the storms might produce locally strong wind gusts from mid afternoon through mid evening. ...North Carolina Coast... The center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast by the National Hurricane center to be over the NC outer banks early Friday, but will continue northeast away from shore during the day. Therefore, the more favorable quadrant for isolated tornadoes should remain offshore with minimal threat inland. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the northern Rockies Friday. ...Northern Rockies region... A shortwave trough will suppress the northern periphery of an upper ridge and continue through the northern Rockies Friday. Boundary layer dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE where sufficient heating of the surface layer occurs. Vertical wind profiles accompanying the upper trough with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear will generally promote multicells. Widely scattered high-based storms will likely develop over the mountains and spread east into a portion of the High Plains. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles suggest few of the storms might produce locally strong wind gusts from mid afternoon through mid evening. ...North Carolina Coast... The center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast by the National Hurricane center to be over the NC outer banks early Friday, but will continue northeast away from shore during the day. Therefore, the more favorable quadrant for isolated tornadoes should remain offshore with minimal threat inland. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Some risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop across parts of the coastal Carolinas today through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. A couple of strong thunderstorms may also impact parts of the Upper Midwest, and portions of western and central Oregon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada through this period. Models suggest that some amplification within this regime is possible across the northeast Pacific through the Canadian Rockies, with short wave ridging building inland of the British Columbia coast, downstream of a significant progressive short wave trough over the northeast Pacific. Preceding the latter feature, a weaker short wave is forecast to advance inland of the northern California and Oregon coast, while subtropical ridging (centered near/east of the Colorado Rockies) otherwise maintains a prominent influence across much of the remainder of the West/Rockies and Plains. Downstream of the ridging, the most prominent impulse within the westerlies appears likely to continue rapidly progressing through larger-scale mid/upper troughing, across Quebec/Newfoundland and Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, within much weaker troughing at lower latitudes, Hurricane Dorian is expected to, at least initially, continue a slow northeastward migration near the Carolina coast. However, by tonight, an acceleration toward the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity is forecast, as at least one short wave impulse within the westerlies digs across the Canadian/U.S. border through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Seasonably moist air has largely become confined to portions of the Southwest, Deep South Texas, and Southeast coastal areas, to the north and west of Dorian, and in the wake of an initial surface front which has advanced off the New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, as well as into the lower Ohio/lower and middle Missouri Valleys. Considerable further drying into and through the Southeast and Gulf Coast appears likely today through tonight, in the wake of Dorian. However, substantive northward moisture return does appear possible ahead of the troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast. ...Carolina coastal areas... Potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes will largely hinge on the inland advection of tropical boundary layer moisture, now present offshore, as evolving clockwise curved low-level hodographs become characterized by strong to extreme shear in the right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion) of Dorian. Based on the most probable track of the low-level cyclonic circulation center, this may come close to coastal areas, but could remain mostly offshore through this period. There may be some window of opportunity for increasing potential for tornadoes near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal areas this morning into midday, then mainly near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity later today through tonight, as the hurricane turns northeastward and roughly parallels the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorm development, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and strong vertical shear within the convective layer, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. This will largely be focused along a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, associated with a couple of digging shortwaves within increasingly northwesterly mid-level flow. ...Near/east of the Oregon Cascades... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the inland progressing short wave, in combination with strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow (30-40 kt around 500 mb), deep boundary layer mixing and destabilization aided by mid-level moistening, may provide support for scattered afternoon storms which could pose a risk for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts. ..Kerr/Bentley.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Some risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop across parts of the coastal Carolinas today through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. A couple of strong thunderstorms may also impact parts of the Upper Midwest, and portions of western and central Oregon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada through this period. Models suggest that some amplification within this regime is possible across the northeast Pacific through the Canadian Rockies, with short wave ridging building inland of the British Columbia coast, downstream of a significant progressive short wave trough over the northeast Pacific. Preceding the latter feature, a weaker short wave is forecast to advance inland of the northern California and Oregon coast, while subtropical ridging (centered near/east of the Colorado Rockies) otherwise maintains a prominent influence across much of the remainder of the West/Rockies and Plains. Downstream of the ridging, the most prominent impulse within the westerlies appears likely to continue rapidly progressing through larger-scale mid/upper troughing, across Quebec/Newfoundland and Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, within much weaker troughing at lower latitudes, Hurricane Dorian is expected to, at least initially, continue a slow northeastward migration near the Carolina coast. However, by tonight, an acceleration toward the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity is forecast, as at least one short wave impulse within the westerlies digs across the Canadian/U.S. border through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Seasonably moist air has largely become confined to portions of the Southwest, Deep South Texas, and Southeast coastal areas, to the north and west of Dorian, and in the wake of an initial surface front which has advanced off the New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, as well as into the lower Ohio/lower and middle Missouri Valleys. Considerable further drying into and through the Southeast and Gulf Coast appears likely today through tonight, in the wake of Dorian. However, substantive northward moisture return does appear possible ahead of the troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast. ...Carolina coastal areas... Potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes will largely hinge on the inland advection of tropical boundary layer moisture, now present offshore, as evolving clockwise curved low-level hodographs become characterized by strong to extreme shear in the right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion) of Dorian. Based on the most probable track of the low-level cyclonic circulation center, this may come close to coastal areas, but could remain mostly offshore through this period. There may be some window of opportunity for increasing potential for tornadoes near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal areas this morning into midday, then mainly near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity later today through tonight, as the hurricane turns northeastward and roughly parallels the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorm development, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and strong vertical shear within the convective layer, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. This will largely be focused along a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, associated with a couple of digging shortwaves within increasingly northwesterly mid-level flow. ...Near/east of the Oregon Cascades... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the inland progressing short wave, in combination with strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow (30-40 kt around 500 mb), deep boundary layer mixing and destabilization aided by mid-level moistening, may provide support for scattered afternoon storms which could pose a risk for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts. ..Kerr/Bentley.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Some risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop across parts of the coastal Carolinas today through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. A couple of strong thunderstorms may also impact parts of the Upper Midwest, and portions of western and central Oregon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada through this period. Models suggest that some amplification within this regime is possible across the northeast Pacific through the Canadian Rockies, with short wave ridging building inland of the British Columbia coast, downstream of a significant progressive short wave trough over the northeast Pacific. Preceding the latter feature, a weaker short wave is forecast to advance inland of the northern California and Oregon coast, while subtropical ridging (centered near/east of the Colorado Rockies) otherwise maintains a prominent influence across much of the remainder of the West/Rockies and Plains. Downstream of the ridging, the most prominent impulse within the westerlies appears likely to continue rapidly progressing through larger-scale mid/upper troughing, across Quebec/Newfoundland and Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, within much weaker troughing at lower latitudes, Hurricane Dorian is expected to, at least initially, continue a slow northeastward migration near the Carolina coast. However, by tonight, an acceleration toward the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity is forecast, as at least one short wave impulse within the westerlies digs across the Canadian/U.S. border through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Seasonably moist air has largely become confined to portions of the Southwest, Deep South Texas, and Southeast coastal areas, to the north and west of Dorian, and in the wake of an initial surface front which has advanced off the New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, as well as into the lower Ohio/lower and middle Missouri Valleys. Considerable further drying into and through the Southeast and Gulf Coast appears likely today through tonight, in the wake of Dorian. However, substantive northward moisture return does appear possible ahead of the troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast. ...Carolina coastal areas... Potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes will largely hinge on the inland advection of tropical boundary layer moisture, now present offshore, as evolving clockwise curved low-level hodographs become characterized by strong to extreme shear in the right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion) of Dorian. Based on the most probable track of the low-level cyclonic circulation center, this may come close to coastal areas, but could remain mostly offshore through this period. There may be some window of opportunity for increasing potential for tornadoes near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal areas this morning into midday, then mainly near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity later today through tonight, as the hurricane turns northeastward and roughly parallels the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorm development, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and strong vertical shear within the convective layer, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. This will largely be focused along a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, associated with a couple of digging shortwaves within increasingly northwesterly mid-level flow. ...Near/east of the Oregon Cascades... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the inland progressing short wave, in combination with strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow (30-40 kt around 500 mb), deep boundary layer mixing and destabilization aided by mid-level moistening, may provide support for scattered afternoon storms which could pose a risk for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts. ..Kerr/Bentley.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Some risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop across parts of the coastal Carolinas today through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. A couple of strong thunderstorms may also impact parts of the Upper Midwest, and portions of western and central Oregon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada through this period. Models suggest that some amplification within this regime is possible across the northeast Pacific through the Canadian Rockies, with short wave ridging building inland of the British Columbia coast, downstream of a significant progressive short wave trough over the northeast Pacific. Preceding the latter feature, a weaker short wave is forecast to advance inland of the northern California and Oregon coast, while subtropical ridging (centered near/east of the Colorado Rockies) otherwise maintains a prominent influence across much of the remainder of the West/Rockies and Plains. Downstream of the ridging, the most prominent impulse within the westerlies appears likely to continue rapidly progressing through larger-scale mid/upper troughing, across Quebec/Newfoundland and Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, within much weaker troughing at lower latitudes, Hurricane Dorian is expected to, at least initially, continue a slow northeastward migration near the Carolina coast. However, by tonight, an acceleration toward the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity is forecast, as at least one short wave impulse within the westerlies digs across the Canadian/U.S. border through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Seasonably moist air has largely become confined to portions of the Southwest, Deep South Texas, and Southeast coastal areas, to the north and west of Dorian, and in the wake of an initial surface front which has advanced off the New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, as well as into the lower Ohio/lower and middle Missouri Valleys. Considerable further drying into and through the Southeast and Gulf Coast appears likely today through tonight, in the wake of Dorian. However, substantive northward moisture return does appear possible ahead of the troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast. ...Carolina coastal areas... Potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes will largely hinge on the inland advection of tropical boundary layer moisture, now present offshore, as evolving clockwise curved low-level hodographs become characterized by strong to extreme shear in the right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion) of Dorian. Based on the most probable track of the low-level cyclonic circulation center, this may come close to coastal areas, but could remain mostly offshore through this period. There may be some window of opportunity for increasing potential for tornadoes near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal areas this morning into midday, then mainly near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity later today through tonight, as the hurricane turns northeastward and roughly parallels the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorm development, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and strong vertical shear within the convective layer, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. This will largely be focused along a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, associated with a couple of digging shortwaves within increasingly northwesterly mid-level flow. ...Near/east of the Oregon Cascades... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the inland progressing short wave, in combination with strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow (30-40 kt around 500 mb), deep boundary layer mixing and destabilization aided by mid-level moistening, may provide support for scattered afternoon storms which could pose a risk for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts. ..Kerr/Bentley.. 09/05/2019 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Dry wells in Chignik Lagoon, Alaska

5 years 10 months ago
Chignik Lagoon on the Alaska Peninsula was dealing with a water shortage as the community’s wells went completely dry. Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), Sept. 1, 2019

Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 120W 50 38 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 64 11 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 17(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 16

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 16

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 118.5W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move to the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

SPC Sep 5, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 10 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... The potential for a couple of tornadoes may increase late tonight near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal areas. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... At least some evaporative cooling, within steady convective precipitation to the north and west of the center of Dorian, is maintaining a relatively cool and stable (as suggested by latest observational data and objective analysis) boundary layer across much of South Carolina and Georgia coastal areas and offshore waters. Based on the expected slow north-northeastward motion of Dorian, there might not be much change overnight. However, toward 12Z, near surface flow may gradually take on a more substantive easterly component (as opposed to northeasterly) near northeastern South Carolina/southern North Carolina coastal areas, accompanied by an influx of tropical boundary layer air (including mid/upper 70s surface dew points ) which could become more conducive to tornado potential in the presence of enlarging low-level hodographs (becoming characterized by strong to extreme shear). ...Northern Plains... A low amplitude short wave trough over southern Saskatchewan is forecast to turn eastward and southeastward across into the eastern North Dakota/Minnesota international border area by daybreak. Models suggest that this may be accompanied by a zone of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota by 06-08Z, with CAPE for moistening parcels rooted within this layer increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg. Coupled with moderately strong, unidirectional shear within the convective layer, the environment could become conducive storms posing at least some risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634 Status Reports

5 years 10 months ago
WW 0634 Status Updates
000-050040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 634 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ABE TO 15 SSE EWR TO 5 SW JFK TO 25 W BDR TO 10 N BDR TO 15 WNW GON TO 20 NNE GON TO 5 WSW PVD. ..GLEASON..09/04/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX...PHI...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 634 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-007-009-011-050040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON NJC021-023-025-050040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH NYC059-103-050040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NASSAU SUFFOLK Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634

5 years 10 months ago
WW 634 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT CW 041650Z - 050100Z
0-050100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southern and Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Laconia NH to 35 miles east southeast of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

Woodbury Fire - BAER (Burned Area Emergency Response)

5 years 10 months ago
Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams have been established to begin burned area surveys of the wildfires that recently burned on federal lands of the U.S. Forest Service - Southwestern Region. BAER team surveys are rapid assessments of the burned areas that evaluate post-fire conditions of the burned watersheds and determine the potential for increased post-fire flooding, sediment flows, and rockslides. BAER teams typically consist of scientists and specialists including hydrologists, geologists, soil scientists, road engineers, botanists, wildlife and fisheries biologists, archaeologists, recreation and trails specialists, and geographic information specialists, from federal and state agencies. BAER teams work together during the burned area surveys, field data analysis and modeling phase, to present findings along with recommended BAER treatments to the Forest Supervisor. BAER teams analyze the data they collect during the surveys, to produce a “Soil Burn Severity”...

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Oaks trees perishing in southeastern North Carolina

5 years 10 months ago
Numerous oak trees in southeastern North Carolina were dying in a matter of weeks. Very young and very old oaks seem to be most affected. Extreme stressors, such as flooding from hurricanes, and recent drought were thought to be responsible. The North Carolina Forestry has received many calls from people in Pender, Brunswick, Bladen and Lenoir counties about their trees. Wilmington Morning Star (N.C.), Sept. 2, 2019