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MD 0133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST LA AND CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...Northeast LA and central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082022Z - 082145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped supercells have developed in northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. While not imminent, trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A few low-topped supercells with broad mid-level rotation are visible from the KDGX radar. As sampled by mesoanalysis and the KLIX 18Z sounding, these cells are in an environment with weak to moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). In the short term, expect storms to produce some hail and perhaps a damaging gust or two. At the moment, the modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat limited. However, the tornado potential will likely increase into the late afternoon and evening as the mid-level trough approaches the region and low-level/deep-layer shear gradually increase. Watch issuance will probably not be needed in the near term, but trends will be monitored for a watch later this afternoon. ..Supinie/Kerr.. 02/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30978948 30879059 31429137 31999143 32739122 33039068 32979010 32688936 32358895 31658907 30978948 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, mainly across parts of the lower into middle Mississippi Valley. Some of these will be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which could become strong this evening across parts of eastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas into western and central Mississippi. A significant uptick in convection has been observed in the last hour along the cold front in eastern Texas, within the moisture plume moving off the Gulf of Mexico, and within the uncapped warm/moist airmass across Louisiana and southern Mississippi. However, these storms are relatively unorganized thus far, owing to the weak shear (~20-25 knots per area VWPs). However, as the trough approaches and shear strengthens this evening, expect more storm organization, including supercells capable of tornadoes. A few tornadoes could be strong as the low-level jet strengthens to around 55 knots, elongating the low-level hodograph and doubling the 0-500m shear (per RAP forecast soundings). Farther north, the forecast remains on track. Low 60s dewpoints are now into western Tennessee, which will advect northward rapidly this evening and overnight as low-level flow strengthens. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The more prominent belt of split mid-latitude westerlies is undergoing considerable amplification across the eastern Pacific into western North America. This will continue through this period, with mid-level ridging building inland of the Canadian and U.S. Pacific coast by late tonight. As this occurs, a vigorous downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig sharply along the Rockies, with mid-level flow ahead of it trending southwesterly and strengthening across the southern Great Plains through the Ohio Valley. A significant mid-level trough/elongating low is already beginning to pivot east of the southern Rockies as it begins to interact with a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. The trough axis is likely to gradually take on an increasingly negative tilt across Oklahoma and Texas during the day today, before accelerating north-northeastward through the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis from near/northwest of the Ark-La-Tex by late this afternoon into areas north-northeast of the St. Louis area by the end of the period. In the wake of a couple of significant recent cold intrusions, boundary modification over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is still underway. Mid/upper 60s surface dew points have advected inland within at least a shallow pre-cold frontal plume across Texas coastal areas into portions of the Piney Woods. A somewhat more substantive influx of Gulf moisture is forecast to overspread the Louisiana coast through much of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. Near the northwestern periphery of mid-level subtropical ridging, centered and becoming a bit more prominent across the Bahamas, mid/upper-levels are relatively warm, and lapse rates might not become particularly steep. However, the development of weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE still appears probable within the evolving warm sector, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear which is expected to become sufficient for organized convection, including supercells. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Mississippi Valley... The primary mid-level trough may be preceded to its south and southeast by one or two subtropical perturbations, and the influence of associated forcing for ascent on thunderstorm development within the plume of returning moisture, while the boundary-layer attempts to destabilize inland of coastal areas, remains unclear. At the present time, the low-level moisture return associated with the stronger low-level flow (still around 40-50 kt around 850 mb) is tending to be undercut by the eastward advancing cold front, to the south of the developing surface low over northeast Texas. Meanwhile, convection allowing models generally indicate that a considerable amount of convection may commence in the destabilizing warm sector, well ahead of the cold front, across portions of Louisiana into Mississippi this afternoon. This would likely be prior to substantive strengthening of the low-level wind fields and associated hodographs, though the environment could be supportive of at least weak updraft rotation. Depending on the impact of earlier convective development, forcing along and just ahead of the eastward advancing cold front likely will become the focus for increasing vigorous thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. This probably will including one or two evolving lines, with supercells embedded within and perhaps preceding it. Coupled with strengthening southerly 850 mb flow along a corridor near/east of the Mississippi River, as surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a window of opportunity may develop this evening for one or two sustained, long tracked supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. The possible lingering influence of at least a shallow residual stable surface-based layer results in more uncertainty concerning severe weather potential closer to the track of the surface cyclone. However, mid/upper forcing for ascent and deep-layer mean wind fields/shear will be stronger across this region, and could contribute to potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps tornadoes. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale pattern is expected on Day 2/Thursday, as a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough advances slowly eastward across the central CONUS. As this occurs, a related cold front will move southeastward across central and east TX, while breezy/gusty north-northwesterly surface winds overspread the southern Plains in its wake. Ahead of the coldest post-frontal air (initially over the central Plains), a narrow corridor of deep boundary-layer mixing from western OK southwestward into west TX/eastern NM could support a brief overlap of strong winds/low RH. With that said, these conditions appear too brief for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Many wheat fields in central Oklahoma were in poor condition or had emerging stands, while other fields had full stands but much less growth than normal. Just a small percentage of wheat fields had cattle turned out for grazing with significantly lower stocking than normal. Feedlot Magazine (Dighton, Kan.), Feb 8, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia, as well as the Midwest including Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet streak will move across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Meanwhile, the larger-scale positively tilted trough will amplify across the central CONUS and into the Southern Plains. A ~1000mb surface low is expected to be located in the vicinity of central Illinois at 12Z Thursday. This surface low is expected to maintain its intensity around 1000 mb as it moves northeast into southern Ontario by Thursday evening. A cold front will trail this surface low and could be the focus for severe convective wind gusts across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the day Thursday. Farther south along the cold front, limited forcing should keep thunderstorm activity minimal in eastern Tennessee/Kentucky. However, more robust convection is expected across portions of the Southeast where low-level Gulf moisture should provide ample instability for a few strong to severe storms amid broad, weak ascent. ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... An unseasonably moist low-level airmass will be present ahead of the cold front Thursday morning with a HREF ensemble mean dewpoint in the mid 50s across eastern Indiana. This will result in low-level buoyancy along and ahead of the cold front Thursday morning. In fact, convection will likely remain quite shallow with forecast soundings showing an equilibrium below 3km. However, strong forcing from frontal convergence and dCVA across the region should lead to a fast moving broken line of convection during the day. Lightning is unlikely with this activity due to its shallow nature, but convection along the cold front could bring strong to potentially severe winds to the surface given the 70-75 knot 1km flow across the region. Extensive cloud cover and minimal boundary layer heating should keep mixing depth shallow. However, if even brief clearing can occur ahead of the front with some boundary layer heating, a greater threat for severe wind gusts will likely occur. If this were to occur, it would be most likely across portions of north-central and northeast Ohio where some CAM guidance suggests some clearing could occur during peak heating. ...Gulf Coast from far southeast Mississippi to southwest Georgia/Florida Panhandle... Remnant Gulf moisture with low to mid 60s dewpoints will remain ahead of the cold front across southeast Mississippi on Thursday morning. This best moisture will only extend around ~75 miles inland and therefore the marginal severe weather threat will be confined to areas in closer proximity to the coast. The cold front will move slowly east across this region during the day before stalling by Thursday afternoon across the central Florida Panhandle. Weak height falls across the region and convergence along the front should be sufficient for storm development during the day. A few strong to severe storms are possible, including the potential for supercell structures given 35-40 knots of effective shear. However, weak instability (400-700 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak lapse rates (~ 6 C/km) will foster a thermodynamic environment which is less than favorable for a more widespread threat. The primary threats will be damaging winds from any supercell structures or bowing segments which develop. In addition, a tornado or two is possible given the significant directional shear in the lowest 1km, but the relatively weak flow in this layer (less than 25 knots) and the aforementioned limited thermodynamic environment should mitigate the overall tornadic threat. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into tonight, mainly across parts of the lower into middle Mississippi Valley. Some of these will be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which could become strong this evening across parts of eastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas into western and central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... The more prominent belt of split mid-latitude westerlies is undergoing considerable amplification across the eastern Pacific into western North America. This will continue through this period, with mid-level ridging building inland of the Canadian and U.S. Pacific coast by late tonight. As this occurs, a vigorous downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig sharply along the Rockies, with mid-level flow ahead of it trending southwesterly and strengthening across the southern Great Plains through the Ohio Valley. A significant mid-level trough/elongating low is already beginning to pivot east of the southern Rockies as it begins to interact with a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. The trough axis is likely to gradually take on an increasingly negative tilt across Oklahoma and Texas during the day today, before accelerating north-northeastward through the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis from near/northwest of the Ark-La-Tex by late this afternoon into areas north-northeast of the St. Louis area by the end of the period. In the wake of a couple of significant recent cold intrusions, boundary modification over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is still underway. Mid/upper 60s surface dew points have advected inland within at least a shallow pre-cold frontal plume across Texas coastal areas into portions of the Piney Woods. A somewhat more substantive influx of Gulf moisture is forecast to overspread the Louisiana coast through much of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. Near the northwestern periphery of mid-level subtropical ridging, centered and becoming a bit more prominent across the Bahamas, mid/upper-levels are relatively warm, and lapse rates might not become particularly steep. However, the development of weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE still appears probable within the evolving warm sector, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear which is expected to become sufficient for organized convection, including supercells. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Mississippi Valley... The primary mid-level trough may be preceded to its south and southeast by one or two subtropical perturbations, and the influence of associated forcing for ascent on thunderstorm development within the plume of returning moisture, while the boundary-layer attempts to destabilize inland of coastal areas, remains unclear. At the present time, the low-level moisture return associated with the stronger low-level flow (still around 40-50 kt around 850 mb) is tending to be undercut by the eastward advancing cold front, to the south of the developing surface low over northeast Texas. Meanwhile, convection allowing models generally indicate that a considerable amount of convection may commence in the destabilizing warm sector, well ahead of the cold front, across portions of Louisiana into Mississippi this afternoon. This would likely be prior to substantive strengthening of the low-level wind fields and associated hodographs, though the environment could be supportive of at least weak updraft rotation. Depending on the impact of earlier convective development, forcing along and just ahead of the eastward advancing cold front likely will become the focus for increasing vigorous thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. This probably will including one or two evolving lines, with supercells embedded within and perhaps preceding it. Coupled with strengthening southerly 850 mb flow along a corridor near/east of the Mississippi River, as surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a window of opportunity may develop this evening for one or two sustained, long tracked supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. The possible lingering influence of at least a shallow residual stable surface-based layer results in more uncertainty concerning severe weather potential closer to the track of the surface cyclone. However, mid/upper forcing for ascent and deep-layer mean wind fields/shear will be stronger across this region, and could contribute to potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps tornadoes. ..Kerr/Supinie.. 02/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a weak lee surface cyclone over the central High Plains, breezy westerly surface winds will overspread the southern High Plains during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible (particularly over eastern NM), marginal RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Inland Empire Utilities Agency in San Bernardino has since December been in Level 6 of its water-shortage contingency plan, the most severe level, indicating a shortage of 50% of more. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), Feb 6, 2023

The Las Virgenes Municipal Water District, serving about 75,000 residents in Agoura Hills, Calabasas, Hidden Hills and Westlake, plans in the coming week to recommend to its board of directors an easing of Stage 3 of its water-shortage contingency plan to Stage 2. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), Feb 6, 2023

U.S. farmers were aiming to boost corn acreage in 2023 as fertilizer prices eased. A bumper crop would be useful after a late season drought in 2022 withered the grain harvest and left U.S. corn supplies near a decade low. Reuters (Chicago, Ill.), Feb 6, 2023

Drought and high fertilizer prices led to a hay shortage in Texas, leaving many ranchers looking for hay or trying to find an alternative. Texas Standard (Austin), Feb 7, 2023

The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources announced a “statewide emergency closure” of shed hunting, prohibiting the public from searching for antlers and horns that wildlife have shed in late winter and early spring. The prohibition extends through the end of April. Concern exists for wildlife populations, especially deer, because mule deer fawn survival rates were affected by extreme cold and increased snowpack in the mountains. Adult deer may be similarly distressed. Deer populations fell from about 384,000 in 2015 to 305,700 in 2020 largely due to drought in 2018 and since 2020. The aim of the emergency closure is to reduce interactions between humans and deer to reduce stress on the deer. Other people who are out enjoying nature are also urged to be cautious of deer and avoid disturbing them. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), Feb 8, 2023

January 2023 runoff was about 1.1 million acre-feet, which is 134% of average and better than expected, thanks to some big snow systems. The runoff for the year above Sioux City, Iowa is still anticipated to be below average at 21.1 MAF, about 82% of average. The six mainstem power plants generated 556 million kWh of electricity in January, 153 million kWh less than the 709 million kWh average for January. The forecast for 2023 is 7.6 billion kWh, lower than the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh. Siouxland Matters (Sioux City, Iowa), Feb 7, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across portions of east Texas. Low-level moistening has continued across southern Texas with dewpoints now in the upper 60s. Shallow convection is streaming in off the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become deeper later this evening as temperatures cool aloft. Shear should be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/ ...East Texas... Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24 hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12 UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities; however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust, organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 7 20:04:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 7 20:04:01 UTC 2023.

Many Crook County farmers were reducing herd sizes and planting fewer acres each season for lack of water. Farmers shifted operations to adapt to having less water by planting less thirsty crops or planting those that brought higher profit. Bend Bulletin (Bend, Ore.), Feb 7, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cool post-frontal airmass will persist across much of the western and central CONUS, as surface high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. This large-scale pattern will yield minimal fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted Wednesday morning across the southern High Plains and move northeast to near the Ozarks by 06Z Thursday. A surface low will develop along a front in eastern Texas Wednesday morning and deepen as it moves northward into the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... As the surface low deepens during the day Wednesday, low-level flow will strengthen and advect moisture northward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Mid 60s dewpoints may advect as far north as southern Arkansas/northern Mississippi by Wednesday evening. The warm sector will be mostly capped Wednesday morning, but inhibition is expected to erode by mid day as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the advancing trough. Despite the uncapped warm sector, most CAM guidance has limited convection across Louisiana during the day. The ECMWF has more widespread convection Wednesday afternoon and seems like the more likely solution given the height falls and the uncapped warm sector by early afternoon. However, these storms may remain more multi-cellular and only marginally severe as warm sector effective shear is only expected to be 20-25 knots during the day. Most guidance shows a low-level wave moving northward across the western Gulf tomorrow afternoon. This can be seen in both PWAT and 850mb wind fields and appears to be the impetus for western Gulf convection, apparent on most guidance. As this feature moves into eastern Louisiana/western Mississippi Wednesday evening, expect a more concentrated convective risk to develop along the I-20 corridor from eastern Louisiana to central Mississippi. Most guidance shows the low-level jet strengthening from 35 to 55 knots between 23Z and 04Z which will elongate hodographs across the warm sector. During this period, convergence is forecast to increase along the cold front and ascent associated with the mid-level trough is expected to overspread the warm sector. A greater tornado threat could persist from evening to early overnight, both from any pre-frontal supercells and any line embedded supercells/QLCS vorticies associated with the front. Damaging winds will also be possible with the developing squall line during this period as some residual instability remains before this line moves east of the better instability after 06Z near the Alabama/Mississippi Line. Given the strong wind field, some marginal severe wind threat could persist into Alabama early Thursday morning, but limited instability should mitigate a greater threat. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across portions of east Texas. ...East Texas... Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24 hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12 UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities; however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust, organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Moore/Goss.. 02/07/2023 Read more