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No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 19 14:44:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 19 14:44:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two may occur from afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly from east Texas to southern Arkansas and western Mississippi. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will contribute to the sharpening of a positively tilted mean trough from eastern Canada across the central Plains and southwestern CONUS to northwestern MX, by 12Z tomorrow. A downstream perturbation -- apparent in moisture- channel imagery near the TX/NM line -- will eject east-northeastward into confluent flow aloft and deamplify through the period. By 00Z, the feature should be located from the Ozarks to north-central TX. By 12Z, it should extend from WV southwestward toward MEM. Surface analysis at 11Z showed a substantial cyclone centered over ON northeast of Lake Huron -- ahead of a northern-stream, mid/upper- level shortwave trough. A cold front was drawn across southeastern Lower MI, western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, and northwestern AR, to a weak frontal-wave low over east-central OK that is related to the approaching southern-stream perturbation. The cold front extended from there across northwest TX, the TX South Plains, and east-central/north-central NM. By 00Z, the cold front should extend across eastern NY, southwestern PA, eastern KY, mid TN, northern parts of MS/LA, and southeast/south-central TX. By 12Z, the front should reach the Delmarva Peninsula, western NC, northern GA, southern parts of MS/LA, and the northwestern Gulf. ...East TX to lower Mississippi Valley region... Scattered thunderstorms should form this afternoon into tonight along/ahead of the surface cold front, between the Mid-South region and southeast TX. Damaging to marginally severe gusts and isolated large hail are possible, especially over LA/TX portions of the outlook areas, along with a tornado or two. Lift should occur both with the front and a prefrontal, warm-sector convergence zone in a warm-advection plume. Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist wedge of partially modified return-flow air (surface dew points of upper 50s to mid 60s F) will weaken MLCINH to negligible amounts by around 21Z. This will help to offset modest but adequate mid/upper-level lapse rates and yield MLCAPE ranging from around 500-800 J/kg over east-central/southeastern AR to 800- 1200 J/kg in east TX and northwestern LA. Initial discrete to partly linear afternoon development is expected, amidst mean-wind and deep-shear vectors oriented about 30 deg rightward of convective lift axes. Forecast soundings reasonably depict around 100 kt anvil-level winds and similar magnitudes of cloud-layer shear, with 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting both organized multicells and at least some supercell potential. After the initial mixed-mode phase, activity should become more linear, with embedded supercells and LEWPs/mesocirculations possible. With time this evening and tonight, the front will impinge on the warm sector and prefrontal ascent zone, faster than the inland advance of favorable boundary-layer theta-e. This ultimately will narrow the surface-based warm sector from north to south across the lower Mississippi Valley region late this evening and tonight. In addition, the lack of substantial upper support (with the perturbation's weakening and pulling away to the north) will contribute to declining overnight severe potential as well. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/19/2022 Read more

The two ski resorts in South Dakota opened on a limited basis and needed more snow. Terry Peak Ski Area in Lead and Great Bear Ski Valley in Sioux Falls were opening later than usual and with fewer runs as December temperatures were very warm and snow was scarce. Terry Peak opened Dec. 15 and intended to open more of its 29 runs and five lifts by Dec. 29. Great Bear planned to have 40% of its runs ready when it opens on Dec. 30. Its tubing area did not yet have an opening date. South Dakota Public Broadcasting (Vermillion, S.D.), Dec 28, 2021

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 18 14:06:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 18 14:06:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are expected over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Following the departure of the strong subsynoptic trough from the Northeast, nearly zonal mid/upper-level flow is expected for most of the period over the central/eastern CONUS. Positively tilted mean troughing is expected to develop by the end of the period, over the north-central through southwestern CONUS. This process will be related to partial phasing of these northern and southern stream perturbations, respectively: 1. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture- channel imagery over the northernmost reaches of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. This feature should move southeastward and amplify, reaching a position from near James Bay to Lake Superior, northern MN, ND, and eastern MT, by 12Z tomorrow. 2. A broad, but not particularly strong, perturbation initially over southern parts of NV/CA and southwestward over Pacific waters west of northern Baja. This feature should move eastward to the southern High Plains by 12Z, aiding in low-level warm advection ahead of the cold front described below. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over the ND/MB line, near the International Peace Garden, related to the northern-stream mid/upper trough. A warm front was drawn southeastward to Lake Michigan, with a cold front arching across southwestern ND and southeastern/south-central to northwestern MT. The cyclone should deepen and move eastward to lake Superior by 00Z, with cold front reaching southeastern MN, south-central NE and eastern CO. By 12Z, the cold front should extend across southeastern Lower MI, southern IL, the Ozarks, southwestern OK, and east-central NM. A separate, weaker low initially drawn near AMA will move east- southeastward down the Red River Valley -- ahead of the southern- stream perturbation -- and should be overtaken by the cold front within a couple hours of the end of the period. Given the continental/polar air mass still present over the Gulf and central/ eastern CONUS following the last major cold front, return-flow marine modification ahead of the newer cold front will be too limited to yield enough moisture/instability for thunderstorms, until the day-2 period. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/18/2022 Read more

On the evening of January 14, 2022, Martin Fire started approximately 18 miles east of the town of Olney. Local VFDs responded to assist.  Fire was estimated to be 800 acres. Local responders were able to stop forward progression but still had some backing fire in rough terrain.State resource from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested to assist due to rocky terrain and heavy post oak presence. TAMFS resources along with Loving VFD (station 2) formed a unified

 The Mill Creek Fire started in Shackelford County off of HWY 283 approximately 10 miles North of Albany. High winds are causing extreme fire activity and aviation resources are being used to assist with slowing the rate of spread. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with local responders and

 The Plum Bluff Fire started around 7:00 PM in Fisher County off of FM 57 approximately 10 miles North of the town of Sweetwater. Due to the high winds the fire is very active with a high rate of spread. The fire is currently burning in mixed grass and heavy brush. TAMFS is in unified command with local and state

On January 14, 2022 aproximately 8:00PM, Douglas fire started in the town of Electra. There were 15 structures threatned but no evacuation is needed at this time. Local resources from Kamay Volunteer Fire Department and State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) responded to assist. TAMFS and Electra Volunteer Fire Department are working in unified

 Crews completed ignitions on 57 acres today, Jan.

01-13-22 Update:  Crews have completed 200 acres on the Pacheco Canyon prescribed pile burn this week.  Due to ventilation rates, fire managers decided not to burn today. The plan is to continue ignitions on the Pacheco Canyon piles tomorrow and, if necessary, into Saturday if conditions are favorable. On Wednesday, the BIA and Pueblo of Tesuque implemented the 111-acre Vigil Grant prescribed pile burn near the Pacheco Canyon treatment

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 13 13:34:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 13 13:34:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the mainland U.S. today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS. A weak shortwave trough and associated speed max -- now embedded in northwest flow over portions of IA -- will move southeastward and strengthen considerably today, reaching portions of AL/GA by 00Z. The perturbation should continue intensifying as it pivots offshore from northern FL, GA and SC overnight, while inducing surface cyclogenesis over Atlantic waters well to the east. Low-level mass response will intensify the northwesterly to westerly gradient flow and negative theta-e advection over FL and adjacent waters, causing substantial offshore displacement of favorable buoyancy and lift. In the meantime, convection crossing the lower/ middle Keys may produce sporadic flashes, with a small portion of the roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE evident in the morning KEY sounding extending into favorable icing layers for lightning. Thunder also will be possible over waters near the southeastern FL coastline, and a few flashes may occur just east of the NC Outer Banks as well. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/13/2022 Read more

Carter County Commissioners implemented a burn ban on Dec. 20 and extended it through Jan. 17. The ban made it unlawful for a person "to set fire to any forest, grass, range crop or other wild lands or to build a campfire, bonfire, burn or ignite fireworks, or to burn trash or other materials that may cause a forest, grass, range crop or other wild lands fire." Ardmoreite.com (Okla.), Jan 7, 2022

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration due to exceptional drought posing a threat of imminent disaster in Andrews, Baylor, Borden, Brewster, Cameron, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Culberson, Dallam, Dawson, Deaf Smith, Dimmit, Fisher, Foard, Gray, Hansford, Hardeman, Hartley, Haskell, Hemphill, Hidalgo, Howard, Hutchinson, Jones, Knox, Lamar, Martin, Maverick, Midland, Moore, Motley, Ochiltree, Oldham, Pecos, Potter, Presidio, Randall, Roberts, Scurry, Sherman, Stonewall, Terrell, Throckmorton, Upton, Ward, Wheeler, Wichita, Wilbarger, and Winkler counties. Office of the Governor - Greg Abbott (Texas), Jan 6, 2022