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SPECIAL SAFETY NOTE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains, increased water runoff. Flash flooding and landslides may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to take action – especially at these locations such as Walker, Grider, Horse Creek, Scott River, and others. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service websites: wwwweather.gov/eka/ and www.weather.gov/sto/. Post-Fire BAER—Preparing for Rain Events POST-FIRE WATERSHED CONDITIONS—KEY MESSAGES While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires cause damage that requires special efforts to prevent problems afterwards. Thunderstorms and winter rain events in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade and Klamath mountains can result in high water runoff and flooding. Wildfire increases the potential for flooding,...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will extend from the northern Plains across the Rockies and into the Southwest Wednesday morning. This upper trough is expected to progress slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest and much of the Plains through the period. An arctic cold front will continue to advance southeastward across the southern Plains, Mid-South, and lower MS Valley through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front should remain fairly modest through much of the day, with generally 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints prevalent. Eventually, slightly greater low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints up to 64-66F, may advance inland across parts of coastal TX and LA Wednesday night. This gradual increase in low-level moisture will occur in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet across east TX and the lower MS Valley, mainly after 06Z. Forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough should remain mostly displaced to the north and west of the surface warm sector. Still, increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the cold front itself will probably encourage convective development Wednesday evening/night from parts of central into east TX, and eventually the lower MS Valley. Most of these thunderstorms should be undercut by the front fairly quickly, with a large component of front-parallel flow present aloft. A low chance for surface-based storms may exist along immediate portions of the upper TX Coast into southwestern and central LA late Wednesday night. Across these areas, weak instability coupled with strong deep-layer shear suggest that there may be a chance for a strong thunderstorm or two. A fair amount of uncertainty remains in various model guidance regarding the quality of the low-level moisture return across this region, which will greatly impact the potential for surface-based convection. At this point, it appears that an appreciable increase in the threat for isolated severe thunderstorms should wait until the start of the Day 3 period (12Z Thursday) across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ..Gleason.. 02/01/2022 Read more

Please see the 'Related Links' section on this page for quick links to smoke information websites and the USFS R6 Tri-Forest Prescribed Fire Map.     Fall 2021 - Prescribed Fire Operations Update:Visit the 'News' section on this page for additional information on planned units and active operations. With the potential for smoke to settle in certain areas during active operations, the public can monitor the smoke and air quality in our area and across the state by visiting, http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/.Additional information regarding prescribed burning on the Malheur National Forest is available by viewing the Prescribed Fire Activity interactive map, by visiting www.fs.usda.gov/malheur or by calling the Supervisor’s Office at 541-575-3000.For all of the latest Forest news on the Malheur National Forest, follow U.S. Forest Service-Malheur National Forest on Facebook and @MalheurNF on Twitter. For the safety of firefighters and the public, roads and areas of...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A series of shortwaves at various latitudes will contribute to amplification of an extensive, yet progressive, trough from Arctic Canada across the western Hudson Bay region, then southwestward across the northern Plains to UT, southern CA and the Pacific west of Baja. Meanwhile, a southern-stream perturbation is devolving from a closed cyclone to open-wave trough over the northwestern Gulf. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front near a DSM-MKC-GAG-CVS line. By the end of the period, the front should extend near a line from DTW-IND-MVN-DAL, then southwestward over the Edwards Plateau, Trans-Pecos area of TX, and southeastern/central NM. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible over the open Gulf east and southeast of the mid/upper perturbation for much of today, until it weakens and passes the area tonight. Activity should occur mainly in an arc of convection immediately ahead of the trough, and farther east in a zone of sustained low-level convergence, moisture transport and surface-based buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms are evident moving northward across the central/eastern LA shelf waters in the latter regime, and cannot be ruled out over nearby coastal areas. Some model soundings' forecast mid/upper-level profiles show enough stability inland to cap convection to levels warmer than -20 C, as also evident in 12Z LCH/LIZ RAOBs. However, only 1-2 deg C cooler conditions in the 400-500-mb layer above the warm-advection plume -- or about that much warmer within the plume -- would be needed (compared to those models' soundings) to support an areal lightning threat over land. RAP CAPE profiles over land, by contrast, do briefly intrude into the bottom of icing layers suitable for lightning production, near and east of an MCV now located southwest of LFT. Buoyant layers over the Gulf also are deeper, given 30-40 kft echo tops observed with isolated cells over shelf waters over the past couple hours, with warm advection expected toward land. As such, a small general-thunder area has been added for daylight hours. ..Edwards.. 02/01/2022 Read more

Drought conditions did not improve in eastern Colorado counties, where concerns remained for fall-seeded crops and pasture conditions due to severe lack of precipitation. Several counties were eligible for emergency grazing of CRP due to drought. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 25, 2022

Drought has persisted into the winter in Wyoming, leaving hay growers short on hay to sell and ranchers short on hay for their livestock. A hay grower in Powell in northern Wyoming said that he usually sells his hay in Canada and the East Coast, but the demand for hay locally was so high that he had none left to ship elsewhere. With higher demand, hay prices rose from $125-$150 per ton to $300 per ton. Wyoming Business Report (Cheyenne, Wyo.), Jan 31, 2022

Hay and roughage supplies for Wyoming were rated 36 percent very short, 34 percent short, and 30 percent adequate, compared to 15 percent very short, 47 percent short, and 38 percent adequate on November 28. Stock water supplies across Wyoming were rated 35 percent very short, 21 percent short, and 44 percent adequate, compared to 17 percent very short, 40 percent short, and 43 percent adequate on November 28. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 8, 2022

Colorado's winter wheat condition declined with 25 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, compared to 38 percent good to excellent from the previous report. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 8, 2022

The San Luis Valley remained very dry and warm during December. Mild weather and lack of snow allowed livestock to remain pastured longer than normal. Producers continued to provide feed supplements due to poor range conditions. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 8, 2022

Drought conditions worsened in eastern Colorado counties in December and livestock producers continued to utilize winter grazing arrangements where available. Concerns remained for fall-seeded crops and pasture conditions due to severe lack of precipitation. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 8, 2022

The Pueblo West Metro District Board of Directors at a meeting on Jan. 24 voted to freeze applications for any new building or water tap permits until a meeting on March 14. The pause will allow the Water Team time to assess drought conditions and a potential new water source in Chaffee County. Some developers and builders say the delay of several weeks will cause major setbacks for them. KOAA News (Colorado Springs, Colo.), Jan 26, 2022

With runoff from snowmelt expected to be unusually low in New Mexico this year, the state needs to be able to adapt when supplies are short. Officials are seeking a $48 million appropriation to expand a fallowing program along the Rio Grande in which farmers would be paid to leave fields unplanted. New Mexico also owes water to Texas, which will cause shortages this summer for farmers and the Rio Grande River. Associated Press News (New York), Jan 25, 2022

Gangs of wild elk were feasting on farmers’ haystacks in Washington and Oregon as drought and epic amounts of snow forced the animals down to the lowlands. Electric fences can be constructed to better keep elk out, and automatic propane cannons can be set up to haze the elk with noise, but the creatures are smart and can be hard to outwit. Drought has driven up alfalfa and grass hay prices this year in the West. Northwest News Network (Portland, Ore.), Jan 27, 2022

Millions of beehives were on their way to California in time for pollination season when almond orchards bloom in February. Drought was one of several factors, including colony collapse disorder, climate change, habitat loss and stronger pesticides, that were costing beekeepers 40% of their hives. Drought in California forced a Stanislaus County beekeeper to move his bees to Washington State for much of the year as wildflowers and plants were dried up in California. Capital Public Radio (Sacramento, Calif.), Jan 26, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Florida today through early evening, although severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A cold front will drift southward into south FL through the day and into tonight. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be weak given only subtle perturbations within a zonal flow regime aloft, but storm coverage could be aided some by pockets of surface heating within cloud breaks this afternoon. Despite MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg this afternoon and effective bulk shear near 35 kt, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak low-level flow both suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/26/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 26 16:06:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 26 16:06:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Morning surface observations and trends in latest guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential for today across the CONUS. Dry and locally breezy conditions remain possible across the lower CO River Valley and coastal southern CA, but fuels remain too limited to support a more robust concern. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will become broadly cyclonic across a sizable portion of the country today. At the surface, high pressure will be present in the West and from the Gulf Coast into the Northeast. A strong surface cyclone in southern Canada will move eastward north of the international border, bringing gusty winds to parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal due to a combination of cool/cold conditions and unreceptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more