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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal today over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will trend toward eastern troughing again through the period, as two primary shortwave perturbations phase: 1. A northern-stream trough now over MN and the eastern Dakotas, forecast to dig southeastward to the central Appalachians and amplify by 12Z tomorrow. 2. A southern-stream trough evident in moisture-channel imagery from central KS across the TX Panhandle, south-central NM and southeastern AZ. This feature will maintain substantially positive tilt as it shifts eastward to GA, central AL, southern MS, and southwestern LA by the end of the period. A surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across northern VA, western NC, western GA, and the western FL Panhandle -- will move eastward to southeastward, offshore from New England by 00Z. At that time, the front should extend from the Hampton Roads region across the eastern Carolinas to near coastal GA, and over extreme northern peninsular FL. By 12Z, the front will have cleared all the Atlantic Coast except central FL, extending from there southwestward over the south-central Gulf. ...Coastal NC to northeastern FL... Widely scattered to scattered non-severe thunderstorms have been common just ahead of the front through the preceding overnight hours, over parts of GA, AL and the FL Panhandle. This convection should persist through the afternoon with minor intensification possible, until the front passes offshore from GA and the Carolinas. Isolated gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out; however, the severe threat appears too weak to maintain an unconditional outlook over coastal GA. With large-scale ascent lagging the front and prefrontal convective band, temperatures aloft and related weak mid/upper-level lapse rates should not change much above the front at any given latitude. A pronounced stable layer in midlevels (500-600 mb) -- observed in 12Z TLH/CHS soundings, is forecast to remain along/ahead of the convective band through the afternoon. With northward extent, already modest low-level destabilization will weaken, and prefrontal surface winds should veer gradually with time, shrinking hodographs. A corridor of 200-700 J/kg MLCAPE is expected, amidst 20-30-kt effective-shear magnitudes and around 35-45-kt cloud-layer shear. ..Edwards/Goss.. 02/04/2022 Read more

MD 0128 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MUCH OF MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022 Areas affected...Upstate New York...central and northern Vermont...central and northern New Hampshire...and much of Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 041014Z - 041615Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall -- at rates near or slightly in excess of an inch per hour in heavier bands -- is expected through this morning. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a zone of moderate to locally heavy snowfall ongoing in a band from portions of eastern/Upstate New York northeastward into Maine. The precipitation is ongoing in a zone of warm advection north and northeast of a surface low now indicated over the Blue Ridge Mountains vicinity of western Virginia, which is moving northeastward with time along quasi-stationary surface front extending from the low northeastward to southern New England. With the low not expected to deepen this morning, given very slow eastward translation of the upper system and only very weak height falls at best, the degree of low-level warm advection should remain steady. This suggests little substantial movement to the freezing/frozen precipitation transition zone with time, but instead only minor oscillations. As such, precipitation should remain in the form of snow across the discussion area. Given the cold temperatures, especially with northward extent across the region, a relatively high snow ratio (in excess of 10-1) should support rates locally in excess of an inch per hour in heavier bands. ..Goss.. 02/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42837439 43027522 44067494 44797222 45447040 46446910 46996780 46466713 45246700 44656811 44426989 43757123 43517265 42837439 Read more

Ongoing dry and windy weather in Oklahoma has led to large grass fires in Logan and Oklahoma counties and elsewhere. Rainfall was above average in 2021, leading to an abundance of dry vegetation during the colder months when peak fire conditions occur. The excess dried vegetation could contribute to an average to dangerous fire season in the Sooner State. The fire season extends from late December to March. KFOR-TV NBC 4 Oklahoma City (Okla.), Jan 13, 2022

The Somervell County judge issued a 90-day burn ban as the number of brush fires has risen recently. Glen Rose Reporter (Texas), Jan 10, 2022

Even though some water-use limits and penalties were lifted in January, the swings in precipitation indicate that water conservation is essential. The district has adequate water for 2022, but the concern is for the next year. CBS San Francisco (Calif.), Feb 3, 2022

The North Weld County Water District, which has had a moratorium on new water taps since late October, will install flow-control devices on water meters to prevent agricultural and commercial users from using more than their allocation of water amid the current drought. If the water supply decreases, water to the meters may be reduced or shut off. The district plans to install about 50 flow-control devices. Greeley Daily Tribune (Colo.), Feb 3, 2022

Whatcom County mayors from Ferndale, Blaine, Lynden, Everson, Nooksack, and Sumas sent a letter to the State Department of Ecology, Department of Natural Resources, Department of Agriculture, and Department of Natural Resources seeking help coping with the effects of extreme weather events. In the summer, the Nooksack River has too little water, except during flooding in the spring or fall. Low flows allowed more than 2,500 salmon to die, and berries, potatoes and other crops failed because there was not enough water for irrigation. MyNorthwest.com (Seattle, Wash.), Feb 3, 2022

North Weld County Water District’s moratorium on new water tap that began in late October 2021. The moratorium caused the issuance of new building permits in Severance to stop, leaving many development and national and local home-building projects on hold. Thirty-seven building permits that were in process were halted, while another 110 permits in the town’s service area were also affected. Hundreds of additional permits need to be pulled. Eaton also has an “effective moratorium” on building permits, and other neighboring communities are affected. Greeley Daily Tribune (Colo.), Jan 19, 2022

A burn ban was instituted for Union County on Jan. 31 and remained in effect until further notice. The area has been dry since fall. El Dorado News-Times (Ark.), Jan 31, 2022

The Oklahoma County countywide burn was extended on Jan. 31 for 14 days and took effect on Feb. 1. The ban originally went into effect on Jan. 18 due to the increased incidence of wildland fires. Thirty-three Oklahoma counties have bans on outdoor burning, including most counties west of Interstate 35. The Oklahoman (Oklahoma City, Okla.), Feb 1, 2022

More than half a dozen fires kept Montague County firefighters occupied on Jan. 29 and forced the evacuations of several homes along State Highway 59. One fire burned after someone violated the burn ban. Bowie News (Texas), Feb 2, 2022

Beef brisket and other cuts of meat continue to be pricey as drought, packing capacity and corn prices have influenced beef production. At the start of December, the cost of prime and USDA choice cuts was more than $280 per hundredweight. Texas A&M Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 28, 2022

The California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) will provide trout anglers in the greater Sacramento area with an unprecedented fishing opportunity this winter: the chance to catch brook trout from a half-dozen urban and suburban park ponds and lakes that are part of CDFW’s Fishing in the City program. California Department of Fish and Wildlife (Sacramento, Calif.), Jan 12, 2022

The S.C. Drought Response Committee met Feb. 1 to review the drought status of all counties in South Carolina and opted to declare the entire state free of drought. Above average precipitation totals in December and January allowed the Committee to remove the incipient drought status for the 34 counties. The wildfire threat was higher in December, prompting the incipient drought designation, but the wildfire threat has eased in the past 30 days, per the S.C. Forestry Commission. The South Carolina Drought Response Committee will continue monitoring conditions because some counties are still on the cusp of drought. Another call may be needed in early March. Orangeburg Times and Democrat (S.C.), Feb 1, 2022 The South Carolina Department of Natural Resources has declared drought conditions across the state, recognizing 34 counties as being in incipient drought. The meeting was called, due to wildfire concerns as the number of wildfires was nearly twice the 10-year average. By the first week of September, South Carolina had already had more than 1.5 times the 10-year average of wildfires. Rock Hill Herald (S.C.), Dec 10, 2021

Casper residents are reminded to care for their trees during the winter. The last few years of drought has meant low soil moisture, so adding mulch and watering the trees could help maintain tree health during the colder months. KGWN-TV (Cheyenne, Wyo.), Feb 2, 2022

As the level of Lake Powell continues to fall, water will be held back in the reservoir this spring to keep Powell from falling too low to generate power. The aim is to keep Powell above the critical elevation of 3,525 feet above sea level, which still allows a 35-foot buffer before Glen Canyon Dam’s hydropower turbines can no longer operate. Water from the upper basin reservoirs of Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo could also be sent down the Colorado River to Lake Powell, although at present those reservoirs are badly depleted and need heavy snowpack this winter. Meanwhile, the bureau and upper basin states continue to work on a new drought-response operations plan, which is expected to be completed in April. The Salt Lake Tribune (Utah), Jan 7, 2022

SPECIAL SAFETY NOTE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to take action. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: www.weather.gov/sto/. Caldor Post-Fire BAER—Preparing for Rain Events POST-FIRE WATERSHED CONDITIONS—KEY MESSAGES While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires cause damage that requires special efforts to prevent problems afterwards. Thunderstorms and winter rain events in the Sierra Nevada mountains can result in high water runoff and flooding. Wildfire increases the potential for flooding, post-fire soil erosion and debris flows that could impact campgrounds, fishing areas, homes, structures, roads, and other infrastructure...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on Wright Patman Lake land during 2022. Burn units identified as Big Creek ATV East, Kickapoo, Kickapoo East, Jackson Creek West, Kelly Creek/Boyscout, FM 2624/CR1211, Green’s Farm East/Moore’s Landing, Overcup and Green’s Farm West will be burned for a total of 3,316 acres. Big Creek ATV East – 554 acresProposed burning dates: 11/15/2021 – 5/15/2022 Kickapoo – 287 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 5/1/2022 Kickapoo East – 435 acresProposed burning dates: 1/31/2022 Jackson Creek West – 188 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 Kelly Creek/Boyscout – 491 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 FM 2624/CR 1211 – 96 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 Green’s Farm East/Moore’s Landing – 618 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 Overcup – 408 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 Green’s Farm...