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The Rolling Pines Fire started January 18, 2022 in Bastrop State Park. The fire was very active during the first day of operations and multiple local fire departments, Bastrop County, Texas Parks and Wildlife and state resources, including Texas A&M Forest Service and Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS), assisted in suppression efforts, in addition to multiple aviation resources. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with Bastrop County.The fire threatened structures in the area and prompted evacuations for residents at Pine Hill Estates, including Pine Hill Drive, and roads in between. Initial road closures included: East SH 21 South Shore Lake Bastrop and East SH21 at 1441. Highway 21 is now opened to the public and evacuations have been lifted. See the Bastrop Office of Emergency Management Facebook page for additional information on evacuations and road closures: https://bit.ly/3fzcrAb. Aircraft remain available to responders if needed. Please do no fly...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning observations, guidance, and fuel analyses continue to suggest low fire weather potential for most of the CONUS today. Elevated conditions remain likely across the lower CO River Valley, but fuels remain too limited for a more substantial fire weather concern. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will round the base of the larger-scale trough across the upper Midwest and Northeast today. This will push colder air into the Plains and force the cold front to near the Gulf Coast. Farther west, another shortwave trough will move through the Great Basin and into the Southwest. High pressure will similarly build at the surface in its wake across the Great Basin. Cold temperatures and areas of precipitation will generally keep fire weather concerns minimal. Dry and windy northerly/northeasterly winds will return to southern California and the lower Colorado River Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph and RH reductions to 15-20% are possible in some locations. Fuels are not particularly supportive of fire spread, however. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 25 15:24:01 UTC 2022.

MD 0091 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251352Z - 251645Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour are possible across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas this morning into the early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A band of snow has developed from northeast Colorado to northwest Kansas in a region of strengthening mid-level frontogenesis. Expect this band to reach peak intensity during the mid-to-late morning hours and persist into the afternoon. The dendritic growth zone is sufficiently deep and saturated and is located near the strongest ascent near the mid-level frontogenesis. This will support larger flake sizes which also assist in snowfall accumulation. Overall, snowfall rates are expected to be around 0.5" per hour, but greater rates at or above 1 inch per hour are anticipated in strong banding near the Colorado/Kansas border. A regional radar loop shows a stronger band extending from Washington County, Colorado to western Kansas. This may be the beginning stages of the stronger band of snow which is anticipated to develop by 15 to 16Z. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40610421 40560319 39990188 39480071 38870005 38280060 38500139 38890232 39230298 39470346 39730392 40110423 40320431 40610421 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central and southern Florida tonight/early Wednesday. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are ongoing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico in the predawn hours, roughly 250+ miles south of Mobile, AL and 250+ miles west of Tampa Bay, FL. These storms are influenced by an eastward-moving/minimal-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley and northwest Gulf of Mexico, with this system expected to gradually deamplify as it reaches Florida and the coastal Southeast tonight. The downstream air mass across Florida is currently cool and dry, with some moistening expected across the Keys vicinity into the southern Florida Peninsula tonight through early Wednesday. This trend will allow for an increasing potential for elevated thunderstorms over the southern/central Peninsula tonight. The more organized/sustained storms are expected to remain over the open Gulf of Mexico, as the ongoing storms will outpace inland air mass modification and the aforementioned moistening that is expected tonight. While some stronger storms could approach the Lower Keys general vicinity tonight, the potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/25/2022 Read more

Winter wheat in the Waco area was suffering from dry weather and cold, but there is still hope if rain were to fall. Rain is also needed for the corn which will be planted in 45 days. KWTX-TV 10 New Waco (Texas), Jan 22, 2022

Drought is killing some of the winter wheat in Wichita County in northern Texas. With the wheat not growing, some livestock producers were feeding hay. The subsoil moisture is low, so more than a couple of inches of rain is needed. Drought was also starting to affect area reservoirs. Wichita Falls Times Record News (Texas), Jan 24, 2022

The Barton County Commission issued a county-wide ban on outdoor burning on Dec. 15, and it remained in effect as there has not been enough moisture to lift the ban. Fires have occurred despite snow on the ground. Great Bend Post (Kan.), Jan 25, 2022

Prescribed burns that were scheduled to take place during the Fall/Winter of 2021 have been postponed due to weather concerns. Additional burns are planned for January 2022 Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place during 2022 in Bastrop County. These burns will cover approximately 2,500 acres on Camp Swift Training Center and 500 acres on a Texas A&M Forest Service property near Rosanky, TX. Texas A&M Forest Service is proud to continue working on a long partnership with the Texas Army National Guard to achieve the land management goals on the Camp Swift Training Center. The fuels in these units will consist of both grass and mature trees. Prescribed burns are conducted to reduce hazardous fuel loading and enhance local ecosystems. These burns will take place under a tiered leadership team of a Type 2 Burn Boss who supervises a Firing Boss and a Holding Boss. Together this team will work to avoid potential safety hazards and lead successful...

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 24 14:29:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 24 14:29:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana today into tonight. ...Texas/Louisiana... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from coastal southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A positive-tilt southern-stream trough over northern Mexico/west Texas early today will take on a more neutral tilt as it deamplifies over east Texas and Louisiana tonight. A weak surface wave is expected to develop just off the Texas coast today and progress east-northeastward offshore toward southern Louisiana, with the warm sector and surface-based buoyancy expected to remain offshore. With the approach of the upper trough, thermodynamic profiles will become marginally supportive of isolated elevated thunderstorms over inland areas, with thunderstorms expected to be maximized over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and especially tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 01/24/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana today into tonight. ...Texas/Louisiana... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from coastal southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A positive-tilt southern-stream trough over northern Mexico/west Texas early today will take on a more neutral tilt as it deamplifies over east Texas and Louisiana tonight. A weak surface wave is expected to develop just off the Texas coast today and progress east-northeastward offshore toward southern Louisiana, with the warm sector and surface-based buoyancy expected to remain offshore. With the approach of the upper trough, thermodynamic profiles will become marginally supportive of isolated elevated thunderstorms over inland areas, with thunderstorms expected to be maximized over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and especially tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 01/24/2022 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern is expected across the CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a strong shortwave trough moves from the Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Southeast States and an upper ridge moves from the West Coast through the Intermountain West. The upper pattern will likely deamplify this weekend as the strong shortwave continues eastward/northeastward off the East Coast and the upper ridging loses amplitude over the Plains. This progressive upper pattern, which also precedes this extended period, will result in predominantly offshore trajectories fostering dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS. Consequently, limited low-level moisture should keep the severe weather potential very low. Read more

The warm, dry weather in Oklahoma prevented the growth of fall and winter wheat, reducing income potential on dual-purpose wheat, according to Oklahoma Mesonet’s agricultural coordinator. The weight gain for cattle has been really light, limiting the profit from cattle being on wheat. Some producers even sold cattle because they were waiting for rain before letting cattle graze the crop. Rainfall could still salvage the wheat crop. KOSU-FM Oklahoma Public Radio (Stillwater, Okla.), Jan 20, 2022

Conchas Lake did not rise in December 2021, offering little hope that the Arch Hurley Conservancy District board of directors would allocate water to farmers come spring just like 2021 when the district decided not to allocate water during growing season due to persistent drought. Quay County Sun (Tucumcari, N.M.), Jan 19, 2022 The Arch Hurley Conservancy District will not be allocating any irrigation water to area farmers for the first time since 2017 as the board of directors voted against an allocation. Conchas Lake was at 4,159 feet, but cannot discharge water by gravity when the lake is below 4,162 feet, although water can be pumped from the lake to the 4,155 feet level. The board will reassess the possibility of water discharges monthly or could schedule a special meeting to allocate water if a significant rain event were to occur. Quay County Sun (Tucumcari, N.M.), April 21, 2021

Drought in 2021 reduced the size of avocadoes and decimated Q4 sales from about 487,000 pounds in Q4 2020 to just 3,000 pounds in Q4 2021. Supply Chain Dive (Washington, D.C.), Jan 20, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211347
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 AM PST Fri Jan 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update information on
the area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of
Hawaii.

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized
in association with an area of low pressure located a little more
than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is
expected to move westward into increasingly unfavorable
environmental conditions during the next day or so, and development
into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is unlikely, although the
low is still producing strong winds on its north side. See High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 2 PM PST today, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 21 13:01:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 21 13:01:02 UTC 2022.