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Trees in northern Virginia began to turn colors in early September, although the usual time for leaf color would be mid-October. In the Bull Run Mountains, poplar tree leaves turned brown and dropped early. Some of the herbaceous ground cover along back roads was so dry that it looked like it had been sprayed with an herbicide. Prince William Times (Warrenton, Va.), Sept 6, 2023

The Pearl River Valley Water Supply District has asked for water conservation in Madison and Rankin counties. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 6, 2023

The Mississippi River dropped nearly eight feet over the course of a month. At Vicksburg, barges in front of the docks were used to help load barges in deeper water. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has also been using 22 dredging vessels to deepen a channel for navigation. Shipping companies were loading vessels with less cargo so the draft was not so deep. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 6, 2023

Crops, such as cotton, corn and soybeans, were affected by the drought in Mississippi, as are cattle. Grass has dried up, and there is a potential hay shortage looming for winter. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 6, 2023

Lake Wichita was so low that boating has almost ended on the lake because boats cannot be launched, apart from kayaks. The water was too low for fishermen to be able to fish from piers. KAUZ-TV CBS 6 (Wichita Falls, Texas), Sept 6, 2023

A drought watch has been issued in Maryland for the northern tier of counties, due to lower-than-normal stream flows and groundwater levels for this time of year. Voluntary water conservation is encouraged. Maryland Department of the Environment (Baltimore), July 10, 2023

St. Paul Regional Water Services asked residents to observe new lawn and garden watering rules effective Sept. 7 as drought persisted. Outdoor watering may be done on an even/odd schedule and to water before noon or after 6 p.m. KARE 11 Online (Minneapolis, Minn.), Sept 6, 2023

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0672 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 6 22:26:04 UTC 2023.

WW 672 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 062225Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Arkansas Extreme northeast Louisiana Northern into west central Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to form and spread south-southeastward through early tonight, with the potential to produce occasional damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Greenville MS to 45 miles north northeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 34020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:27 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution 1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB. Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models, DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135 kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, which should induce weakening. Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 ...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 111.7W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through late this week. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Jova is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the 12 to 24 hours. In a couple of days, Jova is forecast to start weakening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 the center of Jova was located near 14.9, -111.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 X 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 16 60(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 18(18) 50(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 73(81) 1(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 8(45) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 25N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble means and cluster analyses show high confidence in a building upper-level ridge over northern Mexico into the Southwest and southern Great Basin through the weekend followed by a gradual ridge breakdown as a longwave trough becomes established over the central and eastern CONUS next week. This synoptic pattern will favor warm and dry conditions across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the weekend, which should aid in curing currently unreceptive fuels. Fire weather concerns may emerge from west TX into the Four Corners/southern Great Basin during the D3/Friday to D5/Sunday period amid the hot, dry conditions, but uncertainties regarding fuel status and low confidence in the strength of low-level winds under the building ridge casts considerable uncertainty on the fire weather potential. Rain chances will increase across the southern Plains and Southwest/Four Corners region heading into next week, which should limit fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms remain possible ahead of a weak/advancing cold front -- potentially most numerous over parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys and vicinity. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to reflect ongoing and anticipated convective evolution, changes appear unnecessary at this time as prior reasoning continues to reflect current expectations for evolution of severe-weather potential this afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 09/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Amplified, but weak, mid-level troughing lingers offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, with a modest cyclone, slowly migrating northeastward to the south of Nova Scotia, the most prominent embedded perturbation. Upstream, models indicate that mid-level troughing may also begin to amplify across and east of the Mississippi Valley, downstream of building short wave ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical high centered over southeastern New Mexico. The amplifying trough will include one generally weakening short wave impulse progressing across the Great Lakes region today through tonight, while an additional couple of perturbations dig within northwesterly flow southeast of the Black Hills vicinity through the Ozark Plateau/lower Mississippi Valley. Stronger wind fields are becoming largely confined to the northwesterly regime upstream of the evolving larger-scale mid-level trough axis, though a remnant belt of modest southwesterly flow (including 30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) downstream of the trough axis is forecast to nose northeast of lower Michigan through Ontario by mid/late afternoon. The latter speed maximum will accompany a weakening migratory low within weak surface troughing, along a cold front forecast to slowly advance eastward across the upper Great Lakes region, Ontario and central Quebec. An initial cold frontal surge already has reached the lower Ohio Valley, Ozark Plateau and Texas South Plains vicinity. Across parts of western Kentucky and Tennessee into northeastern Arkansas, the front is preceded by a remnant MCV and convective outflow associated with a dissipating cluster of thunderstorms. ...Great Lakes through southern Great Plains... While deep-layer mean wind fields and vertical shear have generally weakened ahead/south of the cold front, modestly steep lapse rates in lower through mid-levels, coupled with residual boundary-layer moisture, may contribute to areas of sizable mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. From the Tennessee Valley into the Great Lakes region, this may be more sparse in nature due to early day cloud cover and weak low-level focus for convective development. However, it seems probable that a more prominent zone of differential surface heating, across parts of central Arkansas into western Tennessee, will become a focus for at least scattered strong thunderstorm development by late this afternoon. Given thermodynamic profiles characterized by large CAPE and a very warm well-mixed boundary layer, various guidance has been suggestive that an upscale growing cluster could eventually evolve along consolidating, south/southwestward propagating cold pools into this evening. If this occurs, a hail/downburst threat in stronger initial storms may transition to a more widespread marginal severe wind threat. Other more widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible west-southwestward into a hotter, drier and more deeply mixed boundary layer across parts of west central Texas. Read more

Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek declared a state of drought emergency for Gilliam, Douglas and Lincoln counties and instructed state agencies to coordinate and provide assistance. KTVZ-TV NewsChannel 21 (Bend, Ore.), Sept 6, 2023

The York Water Company asked its customers to conserve water due to persistent dry conditions. The company also began drawing water from the Susquehanna River to supplement its supply. York County remained in a drought watch. York Daily Record (Pa.), Sept 6, 2023