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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced for parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest TX into southwest OK. Recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability of very isolated thunderstorms along the surface trough from west TX into northwest OK. PWAT values along this axis should range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches, but forecast soundings depict very deep, well-mixed boundary layers with LCLs between 3-3.5 km. This should modulate rainfall amounts to some degree, and given antecedent dry fuels (much of this region received little to no rainfall over the past 24 hours), dry lightning is possible and will pose a fire weather concern. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across northern NM and southeast WY as westerly winds increase to 15-20 mph (with locally stronger winds in the lee of terrain features). However, fuels across both regions appear to be only modestly receptive per recent ERC analyses. Transient elevated conditions are possible along the lee trough in northwest TX/southwest OK within the dry thunderstorm risk area, but low ensemble probability for sustained winds over 15 mph limits confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 09/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will remain within the Southwest on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will develop in the southern High Plains along the stalled surface front. High surface pressure will be situated within the Four Corners region. ...Southern High Plains... With the increase in the surface pressure gradient, some areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible from northeast New Mexico into parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Fuels will remain quite dry, particularly into the Rolling Plains/Permian Basin. However, the impact of precipitation from Tuesday evening will have to be assessed. Overall, the duration and coverage of these elevated conditions are short and limited, respectively. No highlights will be added this outlook. Another conditional concern will be a dry thunderstorm or two within the surface low in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The probability of this occurring is less than 5%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Corn rootworm pressure was higher due to drought because there was not enough rain in early summer to drown the larvae. The affected area covered parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa. Yields may be affected. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 6, 2023

The Mississippi River in downtown St. Paul was measured as the fourth lowest reading on record after a wet spring that caused worries about flooding. Minnehaha Creek was dry enough to be a walkable rock bed in places. The owner of a dock and lift business reported that many people have asked to have their lifts pulled out further and have docks extended. Some folks were already removing their boats from the water for the season where the water was shallow. CBS News Minnesota (Minneapolis), Sept 5, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Potential for locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail will be possible across the Northeast, and southwestward into the Southeast. Gusty winds and hail may also occur locally over parts of the central and southern Plains and Arklatex area. ...Parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, and into the Southeast... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across the central Appalachians vicinity at the start of the period, ahead of a weak cold front moving eastward across the mountains and southeastward across the Southeast. As the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the day, additional/isolated storm development is expected along the entire extent of this front, from the lower Great Lakes and New England, to the Gulf Coast. At this time, somewhat more concentrated convective development is expected to evolve from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England, associated with a compact vort max progged to shift northeastward across this region during the afternoon and evening, in advance of the main short-wave trough to the west. Slightly stronger flow aloft and moderate instability may result in bands/clusters of storms capable of producing locally damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. Activity should peak in intensity through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing nocturnally. ...Parts of Oklahoma southeastward across the Arklatex... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may develop across parts of Oklahoma/East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, in the vicinity of a surface baroclinic zone expected to lie across the area. A deep mixed layer may support potential for locally strong wind gusts across the Oklahoma portion of the outlook, through early evening. During the evening, southwesterly low-level jet development may support some increase in convective development, possibly clustering into a loosely organized MCS over the Arkansas vicinity, that would then shift southward toward Louisiana, possibly accompanied by limited/local wind/hail near severe levels. ...Central and eastern Nebraska vicinity... Afternoon heating/destabilization across the central Plains vicinity should support isolated convective development, ahead of weak mid-level short-wave troughing forecast to crest the ridge and shift east-southeastward across the area during the afternoon and evening. With a belt of 40 kt west-northwesterly flow around the periphery of the ridge possibly contributing to evolution of a couple of stronger/organized storms, limited local risk for gusty winds and marginal hail remains evident during the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 09/06/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

The Berkeley County Public Service Water District asked its customers on Aug. 31 to conserve due to high temperatures and dry weather. A message from the district mentioned that there was less water available from the water source at the south end of the county, leading the district to draw more water from the Potomac River. However, the district’s ability to treat and distribute water was limited. The Panhandle News Network (Martinsburg, W.V.), Sept 6, 2023

The owner of a Christmas tree farm in Tangipahoa Parish announced on Facebook that the tree farm would not open for the 2023 season nor would photographers be allowed to take photos. Pictures showing entirely brown trees were also shared on the post. WBRZ (New Orleans, La.), Sept 6, 2023

The splash pad in Henderson Park in Brenham closed early on Sept. 6 for the season, instead of at the end of September, due to drought and high demand on the water treatment plant. In July, splash pad hours were shortened due to the drought. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), Sept 5, 2023

A late March freeze killed many honey bee populations in Louisiana and also the plants for pollination and honey production. Drought has continued to present challenges for honey bees as plants were not growing or blooming. Bee farmers were even hauling water to some locations that have never gone dry before this. The heat, absence of water and scarcity of pollinating plants has dropped honey production on a Deville honey farm by 65%, but overhead costs for honey production, like water, feed supplements and fuel, have increased. The fire risk and concern about the danger has kept them from mowing, driving trucks onto lots or smoking out the bees. The beekeeper will send more hives to California to offset the honey losses, but he’d prefer not to. KALB-TV (Alexandria, La.), Aug 30, 2023

Firefighters in Louisiana battled more than 500 large fires across the state, which is comparable to the normal number of fires in an entire year. More than 50,000 acres, or about 75 square miles of property, have burned statewide. Much of the burned area was forest land. The statewide burn ban remained in effect. FOX 8 (New Orleans, La.), Aug 30, 2023

Ponds on a horse ranch near Winnie have dried up for the first time that a 79-year-old rancher can remember. The ponds were being cleaned out to improve the capacity of the ponds when the rain does return. In the meantime, he waters livestock with tubs and buckets of water. The water bill has doubled amid the drought as he waters the animals with city water. Drought has also caused a decrease in forage production. Hay production was insufficient for the coming winter so livestock were being sold or transferred to better pasture in another state for the winter. Area ranchers were also turning to a program that offers financial support to offset costs for feed, hay or water to help sustain the cattle. The producer already sold his calves to lower stress on the cows as the suckling requires extra nutrients. Beaumont Enterprise (Texas), Aug 27, 2023

Blue Hole Regional Park in Wimberley will be closed for the rest of the summer due to low water levels that were not safe for swimming. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug 31, 2023 Blue Hole in Wimberley was closed to swimming for the next two weeks, starting Aug. 22, due to low water levels that pose a safety concern. Conditions will be reassessed in two weeks to determine whether Blue Hole could reopen. Jacob’s Well, also in Wimberley, was closed due to no water flow. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug 22, 2023

Temperatures remained extremely high and dry in North Texas. The heat has led to stressed plants across the region. Some trees started to show significant drought stress, especially elms, honey locusts, maples and hackberry. Summer grasses were still declining. Many small creeks dried up entirely due to the extreme heat and no rainfall. Corn and grain sorghum were nearing harvest completion, and the soybean harvest was completed. Many bean fields were being rolled up for hay. Nuisance flies and tabanid flies were still active. Livestock conditions were good and continuing to improve. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 North Texas pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good, and topsoil was very short to short in most counties. Temperatures ranged from 100-110 degrees, resulting in burn ban warnings and signs of severe drought. The hot, dry conditions were starting to speed crop maturity and slow grass growth. Many counties needed moisture. Soybeans looked heat stressed. Forage and hay fields were beginning to show heat stress as well. Cattle and other livestock were in good condition, but most were consuming a considerable amount of water to stay cool. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 North Texas pastures and rangeland were good to fair for most of the counties. Both subsoil and topsoil moisture were reported to be adequate to short for most of the counties. Temperatures remained in the triple digits over the past week and the region was in need of rain. Grass stands were severely declining. Pastures were becoming a little stressed due to excessive heat. A few counties started cutting corn for silage and it was yielding well. Overall, the production looked good but needed rain soon. Harvest is expected in August. Grasshopper populations were extremely high and increasing. A good amount of hay was harvested in a few counties. No major insect or disease outbreaks occurred during these times. Livestock conditions were looking good and continuing to improve. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

The cotton crop was about 80% harvested in South Texas, with others still defoliating in hopes of harvesting in the next few weeks. The stalk destruction deadline was approaching quickly, with no extension being planned. Pastures continued to suffer due to the hot and dry conditions. Irrigation districts were reaching a critical point regarding water availability, with almost certain water restrictions to come soon. Forages in rangelands and pastures were beginning to improve. Rapid green-up was already noted, and most were hopeful there was still enough time this season to produce some grass. Beef cattle markets continued to run average volumes and reported solid prices for all classes of beef cattle. All corn and grain sorghum were harvested with very little cotton left in the field, and sunflower and sesame harvest had yet to start. Livestock managers hoped for enough green-up from rains to limit haying and reduce supplemental feeding. Farmers began preparing fields for the next planting season. Stock tanks were slightly replenished. Cotton harvest continued, and it looked to be 75% harvested. Sesame harvest also continued. Citrus, sugarcane and hay meadows continued to be irrigated. Wildlife were abundant and found near water sources. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Conditions in South Texas remained hot and dry, and topsoil and subsoil moisture was very short. Most corn and sorghum fields were harvested with some very late planted fields remaining. Cotton fields without irrigation were suffering due to the extreme heat and dry conditions. Cotton harvest was in full swing in some areas. Poor cotton yields were expected in many areas. Peanut crops were under irrigation. Corn, grain sorghum, sunflowers and soybeans were harvested. Citrus and sugarcane continued to receive irrigation. Watermelon and cantaloupe harvests continued. Producers were baling irrigated Bermuda grass fields. Grain stubble was being harvested and baled. Fieldwork was underway for next season’s crop. Pastures were in poor condition unless irrigated. Rangeland was in very poor to poor condition. Hay bales were being trucked around the district, and prices were $70-$80 per round bale. Cattle producers were supplementing with hay and protein. Many ponds were completely dry, and some producers were hauling water for livestock and wildlife. Higher volumes of cattle were being sold at auctions, and prices were steady. Many coveys of quail were spotted on ranches. Fawns were spotted and wildlife were staying close to water sources. A good dove season was predicted, and hunters were spotted hauling water and supplemental feed for wildlife on ranches they hunt. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Conditions were hot and dry in South Texas. Soil conditions were very short. A few scattered showers delivered up to half an inch of rain. Sorghum fields reached maturity and harvest should begin soon. Corn harvest started. Some areas were wrapping up sorghum and corn harvests. Irrigated cotton fields were extremely stressed due to high temperatures. Some cotton was setting bolls. Peanut crops continued to progress and develop pods under irrigation, but some fields were struggling. Sesame fields looked good, and sunflowers were drying down. Fieldwork for strawberries continued but rain was needed for soil preparation. Irrigated watermelons and cantaloupes were in good condition. Pecan orchards continued to progress. Citrus and sugarcane were being irrigated, and vegetable farmers were preparing fields. Irrigated Bermuda grass fields were cut and baled. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to decline and stress due to high temperatures. Grazing was limited, and producers were feeding livestock hay and cubes. Feed prices were high. Stock tanks were declining, and beef cattle producers were thinning herds. Cattle prices were high, and one report showed a slight decline in sale volumes. Wildlife were in fair condition but reliant on landowner water sources. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

WW 0671 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0671 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 671 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 052230Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast Kansas Southwest to central Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters should develop along a cold front and spread east-southeast this evening with a primary threat of damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Columbia MO to 15 miles south southwest of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 669...WW 670... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..09/05/23 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-017-019-021-025-031-035-037-039-043-045-047- 049-053-055-059-061-065-075-079-085-093-095-097-099-103-109-115- 123-131-137-139-141-143-145-147-157-161-163-169-171-052340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH CARLTON CARVER CASS CHISAGO COOK CROW WING DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC LAKE LE SUEUR MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MOWER NICOLLET OLMSTED PINE RAMSEY RICE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON WINONA WRIGHT WIC003-005-007-011-013-031-033-051-091-093-095-107-109-113-129- 052340- Read more

WW 669 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 052055Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and early evening, initially across the eastern half of Minnesota, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Storms are expected to develop into western Wisconsin by early/mid-evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of Ely MN to 40 miles southwest of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0670 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more