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Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Jova continues to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures. The overall satellite depiction of Jova is that of a weakening tropical system, encountering a more stable environment. A SSMIS microwave pass that came in just after the previous advisory, shows that banding around Jova is thinning, and the inner core is collapsing as dry air wraps into the system. Cloud tops within the convection have been warming throughout the day as well. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have continued to decrease throughout the day. The initial intensity has been set to 75 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Environmental conditions along the forecast track are becoming less favorable, as the hurricane is moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable airmass. The latest NHC forecast continues to show steady weakening and is similar to the previous advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time. Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, just slightly slower and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 122.4W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 122.4 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are expected to reach portions of the coast of California later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Jova was located near 20.4, -122.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 122.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States into New England into this evening, and across parts of the South-Central States in multiple rounds through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection, and associated severe-weather risk, continues to evolve largely as anticipated in earlier outlooks. As such, no substantive changes to outlook areas or reasoning appear necessary at this time. The most substantial adjustments were to remove portions of Florida from MRGL risk, in the wake of earlier storms which have moved offshore, and to trim parts of the MRGL and SLGT north of the convective line now moving southward across southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 09/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023/ ...Mid-Atlantic States to New England... Thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening will again be capable of damaging winds and hail, in a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday. Late morning/midday observations continue to suggest that abundant insolation east of the Appalachians, combined with a pervasive plume of 60s to low 70s F surface dew points, will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented gradient in MLCAPE across the region, with peak values approaching 2500-3000 J/kg over the coastal plain. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the MLCAPE gradient from near the West Virginia/Virginia border northeast into parts of eastern New England. With forecast soundings suggesting nearly unidirectional southwest flow will weaken with height from the mid to upper-levels, multicell clustering will dominate. 700-mb winds in excess of 30 kt from eastern New York to Maine should support slightly more organized clustering. Steeper low-level lapse rates from Virginia to the Delaware Valley should compensate for the weaker flow and support relatively more prolific downburst potential. Scattered damaging winds along with isolated severe hail are expected regionally, mainly from mid-afternoon into evening. ...Texas/Oklahoma Red River vicinity and Sabine Valley... An elevated semi-organized linear cluster of storms persists southward at late morning across northern Louisiana. While boundary layer inhibition still currently exists, relatively cloud-free skies are noted to its south, with some potential that this cluster and/or new development on its western-peripheral outflow could root within a very moist/heating boundary layer. If so, damaging winds would be possible across southern Louisiana/southeast Texas. Farther to the northwest along the Red River Valley, record hot temperatures and a deep-mixed boundary layer should support sporadic downbursts from late afternoon to early evening with isolated thunderstorms that develop near the surface front. Some of this activity may try to congeal and grow upscale south-southeastward into east Texas during the evening/overnight within the persistent northwest flow regime atop the low-level moisture gradient. But low confidence exists in this scenario, with potential effects of the daytime round of storms modulating the downstream environment and ascent. ...Northern High Plains to Black Hills vicinity... Relatively isolated instances of severe wind and hail will be possible across the region. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse along the international border over the northern Rockies will move eastward today toward the northern High Plains. Forcing for ascent attendant to this wave will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms focused primarily across the southern half of Montana, but perhaps also far northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills vicinity as well. While there will be MLCIN concerns to the north and east, 35-45 kt effective bulk shear should support a few organized cells capable of isolated severe wind and hail. A more favorable supercell wind profile will conditionally exist near the Black Hills pending sustained storm development. ...Northern/central Florida... A mid-level low near the Florida/Georgia border should slowly weaken as it drifts south today. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures sampled by the 12Z JAX sounding of -13 C at 500 mb should support enhanced CAPE profiles between 700-300 mb yielding pronounced vertical growth. Effective bulk shear will tend to remain weak, especially near the cold core, suggesting the potential for organized storms is limited. Still, sporadic occurrences of marginally severe hail and wind are possible, mainly this afternoon. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the southwestern into the south-central U.S. tomorrow/Saturday. RH should dip to or just below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating across the southern Plains. However, the upper ridging pattern supports an overall weaker surface wind field, precluding the introduction of Elevated highlights this outlook. Isolated thunderstorms (perhaps some dry) seem more probable closer to the TX/NM border. However, storms in these areas will overspread relatively less receptive fuels, so dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Pumpkins grown in the Duluth area were smaller than usual for lack of rain. Christmas trees were also affected. WDIO News (Duluth, Minn.), Sept 7, 2023

Fairhope and Daphne agreed to share water during drought via a new water line with a two-way valve between the two water systems. The connection is expected to cost about $50,000. WALA TV 10 (Mobile, Ala.), Sept 7, 2023

The Eau Claire Downtown Farmers Market has had fewer vendors this summer as drought slowed plant growth, and the heat killed many planted seeds. Some seeds would not sprout. The lack of rain reduced produce, which led farmers to charge more for what was able to be grown. WEAU (Eau Claire, Wis.), Aug 31, 2023

A burn ban took effect for Hancock County on Sept. 5, due to dry conditions. The public was urged to be cautious, and farmers were recommended to have equipment nearby to quickly extinguish any field fires that might occur. Globe Gazette (Mason City, Iowa), Sept 6, 2023

Some trees in the Davenport area were beginning to turn color early after a summer of drought stress. Some leaves were already on the ground. KWQC Online (Davenport, Iowa), Sept 6, 2023

Heat and drought have cut hay production in the Alvarado area. A sudangrass grower was only able to get one cutting instead of the usual three cuttings. Consequently, the price of a bale of hay was around $150, which is more than twice that of hay during a good year when it would fetch $60 to $65 per bale. Ranchers were supplementing cattle feed with corn stalks to keep the cattle fed. Feed prices were forcing some ranchers to sell cattle. With the cattle count the lowest since 1962, beef prices were about 25% higher than last year and about twice the price compared to three years ago. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), Sept 6, 2023

The tops of trees in Lutsen along Lake Superior were changing color early after drought this summer. Up to 25% of trees in parts of northwest Minnesota were also turning color, per the Department of Natural Resources. Trees at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chaska, just southwest of Minneapolis, were also turning color. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis), Sept 6, 2023

No rain fell for about five weeks after pumpkins were planted in Wisconsin this spring. Weeds competed with the pumpkins for moisture in some cases. Pumpkin vines were yielding fewer pumpkins this year. WSAW-TV CBS 7 Wausau (Wis.), Sept 6, 2023

Apples at a Rochester area orchard were smaller than usual, and the leaves were drought-stressed. Some pumpkins did not germinate when planted, but eventually germinated in July. The late-germinating pumpkins do not have ripe fruit that can be sold. KIMT 3 (Rochester, Minn.), Sept 7, 2023

Some fish mortality has been reported in Shenandoah National Park where all streams were closed to fishing. Streams were low, and the heat was stressing the fish. Visitors should not expect to see spectacular waterfalls. The fire danger is high, so vehicles should not be parked in tall vegetation. NBC Washington (D.C.), Sept 7, 2023

Outdoor adventure companies along the Shenandoah River were seeing fewer customers. One business reported that fall bookings were down 50%. NBC Washington (D.C.), Sept 7, 2023

The town of Front Royal put emergency conservation rules into effect on Sept. 5 as its water comes from the Shenandoah River, which was alarmingly low. All outdoor water use was prohibited. Water restriction violators could be fined $1,000. NBC Washington (D.C.), Sept 7, 2023

MD 2100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673... FOR FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern Pennsylvania...central and eastern New York...western New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673... Valid 072213Z - 072345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673. Damaging gusts remain the main concern, particularly with bowing segments embedded within the broader line of storms. DISCUSSION...A mature line of thunderstorms continues to move across the Hudson Valley, with a bowing segment (potentially augmented by a subtle MCV located to the west) currently tracking over central NY. Surface temperatures in the 85-90 F range continues to support MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg, which should support additional damaging gusts into the evening. Damaging gusts may be most common with the bowing line segment in central NY. Isolated instances of hail may continue with the more discrete convection in far eastern NY. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 42867687 43727586 43997500 43937422 43577372 42637376 41707418 40867447 40167512 39457596 39257660 39327684 39897660 40847607 41307571 41907553 42367610 42867687 Read more