Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... Breezy northwest winds are forecast to develop over portions of the southern OR Cascades into the far northern Central Valley of CA. While occasional 15-25 mph gusts are possible, surface conditions are not expected to be overly dry with RH values generally above 30%. Occasional lower RH values may overlap locally with breezy conditions through the afternoon, but the limited coverage should keep fire-weather concerns localized. Thus, confidence remains too low to include elevated probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the central U.S. tomorrow/Wednesday. Nonetheless, some surface lee troughing is likely along the High Plains, which will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass. At the same time, more beneficial rainfall may occur across portions of the southern Plains (mainly Texas). As such, wildfire-spread concerns are relatively minimal, with no highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... Breezy northwest winds are forecast to develop over portions of the southern OR Cascades into the far northern Central Valley of CA. While occasional 15-25 mph gusts are possible, surface conditions are not expected to be overly dry with RH values generally above 30%. Occasional lower RH values may overlap locally with breezy conditions through the afternoon, but the limited coverage should keep fire-weather concerns localized. Thus, confidence remains too low to include elevated probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the central U.S. tomorrow/Wednesday. Nonetheless, some surface lee troughing is likely along the High Plains, which will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass. At the same time, more beneficial rainfall may occur across portions of the southern Plains (mainly Texas). As such, wildfire-spread concerns are relatively minimal, with no highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight, across parts of the southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States, south Georgia to central Florida, and southern Arizona to southwest New Mexico. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm lines, but no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2140 regarding the short-term threat for northeast GA into parts of the Carolinas and southern VA. ..Dean.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States... Broad height falls will occur regionally in advance of the upper trough centered near the Great Lakes/northern Ontario. Moderate differential diabatic heating will occur today ahead of a weak southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. This will aid the development of scattered thunderstorms through early/mid afternoon from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit overall buoyancy and updraft vigor, but at least weak buoyancy coupled with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell clusters and an attendant threat for sporadic damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. While a spatial decrease in the severe threat is expected after sunset, some uptick in severe risk may occur tonight as greater mid-level height falls overspread richer low-level moisture over the Chesapeake and Delmarva regions. With weak surface low development expected, low-level mass response and low-level shear/SRH may be adequate for a few transient supercells. These supercells should generally remain weak, but could potentially pose a low-probability brief tornado threat aside from localized wind damage. ...Florida/southern Georgia... A minor mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf will slowly progress east and remain well offshore through the period. Downstream of this feature, 500-mb west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 kt will persist and support short-duration/transient storm organization. As surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes and collide inland. Ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will support vigorous downdrafts and sporadic wind gusts from 45-65 mph, along with the possibility of marginally severe hail from 0.75 to 1.25 inches. ...Southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico... A belt of confluent mid-level westerlies will yield a swath of 30-35 kt flow across the region, supporting potential for isolated severe thunderstorms from late afternoon through tonight. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest and timing/extent of large-scale ascent appears nebulous with multiple rounds of thunderstorm development from this morning through tonight. Although somewhat tempered by lingering early day clouds and precipitation, a plume of weak to moderate buoyancy should become established this afternoon south of the Mogollon Rim, with the strongest regional destabilization across parts of southwest into south-central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms seem most likely during the late afternoon and evening within the buoyancy gradient and across the higher terrain. Sporadic occurrences of 50-60 mph wind gusts along with marginally severe hail around 1 inch will be possible through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight, across parts of the southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States, south Georgia to central Florida, and southern Arizona to southwest New Mexico. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm lines, but no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2140 regarding the short-term threat for northeast GA into parts of the Carolinas and southern VA. ..Dean.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States... Broad height falls will occur regionally in advance of the upper trough centered near the Great Lakes/northern Ontario. Moderate differential diabatic heating will occur today ahead of a weak southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. This will aid the development of scattered thunderstorms through early/mid afternoon from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit overall buoyancy and updraft vigor, but at least weak buoyancy coupled with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell clusters and an attendant threat for sporadic damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. While a spatial decrease in the severe threat is expected after sunset, some uptick in severe risk may occur tonight as greater mid-level height falls overspread richer low-level moisture over the Chesapeake and Delmarva regions. With weak surface low development expected, low-level mass response and low-level shear/SRH may be adequate for a few transient supercells. These supercells should generally remain weak, but could potentially pose a low-probability brief tornado threat aside from localized wind damage. ...Florida/southern Georgia... A minor mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf will slowly progress east and remain well offshore through the period. Downstream of this feature, 500-mb west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 kt will persist and support short-duration/transient storm organization. As surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes and collide inland. Ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will support vigorous downdrafts and sporadic wind gusts from 45-65 mph, along with the possibility of marginally severe hail from 0.75 to 1.25 inches. ...Southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico... A belt of confluent mid-level westerlies will yield a swath of 30-35 kt flow across the region, supporting potential for isolated severe thunderstorms from late afternoon through tonight. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest and timing/extent of large-scale ascent appears nebulous with multiple rounds of thunderstorm development from this morning through tonight. Although somewhat tempered by lingering early day clouds and precipitation, a plume of weak to moderate buoyancy should become established this afternoon south of the Mogollon Rim, with the strongest regional destabilization across parts of southwest into south-central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms seem most likely during the late afternoon and evening within the buoyancy gradient and across the higher terrain. Sporadic occurrences of 50-60 mph wind gusts along with marginally severe hail around 1 inch will be possible through the period. Read more

Drought and low soil moisture continued to take a toll on crop conditions in Iowa and may lead some farmers to begin harvesting earlier than usual. Some producers were hauling water to livestock or were selling cattle. Some livestock were already being fed hay. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Sept 11, 2023

The hottest summer ever recorded by many Texas cities, combined with intense drought, has led to millions of dollars of damage to municipal pipes and the loss of large quantities of water. Numerous cities have asked residents to conserve water as crews work to stem the widespread leaks. “The intense heat and drop in annual rainfall have dried up the soil, causing a shift in water lines,” said a spokesperson for the city of Houston. “When the pipes shift, the pipe joints can break, causing water leaks.” Houston has been receiving 500 calls per week about water leaks, up from 300 this time last year, when drought was less intense. In San Antonio, the number of water main breaks averaged about 470 per month from January through June, and then leapt to 725 in July and 1,076 in August amid intense heat. Laredo, Austin, Midland and Wichita Falls have also had sharp increases in water main breaks. The Texas Tribune (Austin), Sept 8, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased today, but remains disorganized. Some
additional development of this system is expected during the next
few days as the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form later this week. The system is then forecast
to turn westward over the weekend, at which time further development
is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...COASTAL CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the southern High Plains, southern New England, and the Carolinas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward New England on Wednesday. Multiple vorticity maxima will be embedded within the midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this trough. At the surface, a cold front will move across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic into the southern Appalachians, with a weak frontal wave potentially moving from the Mid Atlantic into New England through the day. Farther west, a broad upper-level trough will remain in place across parts of the western/central CONUS, with one notable shortwave trough expected to move eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. ...Northern NJ/Southeast NY into southern New England... A band of convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period somewhere across southeast NY/northern NJ into western parts of southern New England, aided by low-level warm advection and midlevel vorticity maxima ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. Instability will generally remain weak, but moderate deep-layer shear, favorable moisture, and some enhancement of low-level shear/SRH within the warm-advection regime may support transient rotating cells capable of locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado. The primary threat may reside with the initial cluster of convection as it moves eastward across southern New England, though some redevelopment will be possible its wake, depending on timing of early convection and extent of destabilization in its wake. ...Coastal Carolina vicinity... In advance of the large-scale trough to the north, one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may move across parts of the Carolinas Wednesday. These may aid in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development within a warm, moist, and moderately unstable environment during the afternoon. Modest westerly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 25-30 kt, sufficient for some storm organization, and a few semi-organized cells/clusters will be possible. A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of near-coastal SC and southern NC, where the best overlap of instability, shear, and storm coverage is currently anticipated. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the southern Rockies into the High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening, as a midlevel shortwave trough traverses the region. Weak to moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a few organized cells/clusters capable of producing localized hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ into southwest NM... Scattered thunderstorm development will again be possible across parts of southern AZ into southwest NM on Wednesday. Moisture/instability may be somewhat weaker than D1/Tuesday, though deep-layer shear will remain marginally sufficient for a few semi-organized storms. Depending on the extent of D1 convection across the region and its potential impact on D2 destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 09/12/2023 Read more

Lincoln County remained under a burn ban, as do 44 other Mississippi counties. The Daily Leader (Brookhaven, Miss.), Sept 11, 2023

Remnants of a large dam that used to power a mill along the South Fork of the Shenandoah River near Port Republic have been fully exposed. The history of the structure was conjecture combined with accounts of the past from nearby landowners. It looks like a small dam was replaced by a larger, stronger dam in 1940. Harrisonburg Daily News-Record (Va.), Sept 12, 2023

Many of Minnesota’s lakes and rivers were at historic lows with nearly 55% of the state in severe drought. The Department of Natural Resources has suspended more than 100 surface water permits over the past seven weeks, due to drought. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis), Sept 11, 2023

Nebraska state park areas and wildlife management areas in Cherry County have temporarily banned campfires as drought conditions contributed to extreme fire danger. Affected areas included Merritt Reservoir State Recreation Area, Cottonwood Lake SRA, Bowring Ranch State Historical Park, Smith Falls State Park, Anderson Bridge, Ballards Marsh, Big Alkali Lake, Borman Bridge, Chat Canyon, Cottonwood/Steverson, Merritt Reservoir, Rat and Beaver Lake, Schlagel Creek, and Shell Lake WMAs. KCSR-AM 610 Chadrad.com (Chadron, Neb.), Sept 11, 2023

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was constructing an underwater sill for the second consecutive year to keep salt water from moving upstream and damaging drinking water systems. USA Today (McLean, Va.), Sept 10, 2023

Drought lowered the level of the Paluxy River in Dinosaur Valley State Park, and volunteers found scores of new dinosaur tracks in the riverbed. KXAS-TV NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth (Dallas, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Newly discovered dinosaur tracks were again exposed as drought dried up a river running through Dinosaur Valley State Park in Somervell County. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Aug 30, 2023

The City of Katy remained in a Level 3 drought, and city officials pleaded with residents to conserve water, per a Facebook post on August 25. Katy Times (Texas), Sept 11, 2023 Heat and excessive water use triggered Katy’s Stage 3 water restrictions. The mandatory restrictions took effect because daily water use equaled or exceeded 85% of the city’s total water pumping capacity for three consecutive days. Water may not be used to wash vehicles, pavement or to fill pools. Houston Chronicle (Texas), Aug 15, 2023

Rising hay prices in North Texas were making it more costly to keep and feed animals at a petting zoo. When it was time the plant pumpkins, the ground was so dry that the tiller could not break through the hard ground to plow the soil. So they adapted by bringing in topsoil to plant the pumpkins. Another pumpkin patch faced the same challenges and had to close, due to high hay prices and labor challenges. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), Sept 11, 2023

The Millers Head Fire burning in the Shenandoah National Park began on Friday, Sept. 8, has blackened 2.5 acres and was 30% contained. The fire was sparked by natural causes. The Washington Post (D.C.), Sept 11, 2023

Farmers in the D.C. region have seen crop yields down as much as 40%, due to drought. Some streams were drying up, and livestock were already eating hay instead of grazing in green pastures. Farmers were praying for rain. The Washington Post (D.C.), Sept 10, 2023

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 11 22:20:26 UTC 2023.

Since the start of the year, Texas has had 4,279 wildfires that have burned 165,837 acres. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sept 11, 2023