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Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns on Kirby State Forest land during 2022. During the year, a total of 289 acres will be burned on burn units identified as stands 1, 3, 6, 5, 58, 8 and 9. These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions.Stand 1 – 55 acresProposed burning dates: 1/28/2022Stand 3 – 60 acresProposed burning dates: 1/28/2022Stand 6 – 46 acresProposed burning dates: 10/15/21 – 4/15/2022  Stands 5, 58, 8, 9 – 128 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 –...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for prescribed burns to take place on Masterson State Forest land during 2022. Burn units identified as stands 4 and 8 will be burned for a total of 102 acres. The units have proposed burning dates of 11/1/2021 – 5/1/2022. These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Nearby residents can expect some lingering smoke effects overnight after the burns and may see some moderate to heavy smoke impacts for short periods during ignition operations. These effects will be...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on Camp Bowie Texas Army National Guard land during 2022. Burn units identified as units 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 14 will be burned for a total of 2,092 acres. Unit 2 – 181 acresProposed burning dates: 2/7/2022 – 2/11/2022 Unit 4 – 485 acresProposed burning dates: 2/7/2022 – 2/11/2022 Unit 5 – 113 acresProposed burning dates: 2/7/2022 – 2/11/2022 Unit 7 – 407 acresProposed burning dates: 2/7/2022 – 2/11/2022 Unit 8 – 759 acresProposed burning dates: 2/7/2022 – 2/11/2022 Unit 14 – 147 acresProposed burning dates: 2/7/2022 – 2/11/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for prescribed burns to take place Brodbeck-Hooper General Land Office tracts during 2022. Four units identified as stands 3, 4, 9 and 10 will be burned for a total of 135.7 acres this year. Stand 3 – 57 acres Proposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 Stand 4 – 36 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 Stand 9 – 20.7 acresProposed burning dates: 10/15/21 – 4/15/2022 Stands 10 – 22 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including the improvement of timber stands and to improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Nearby residents can expect some lingering smoke...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for prescribed burns to take place in Rusk County during 2022. During the year, 2 tracts will be burned for a total of 110 acres. Each burn will take one day to complete. Flory Tract – 30 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 Powers Tract – 80 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Nearby residents can expect some lingering smoke effects overnight after the burns and may see some moderate...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for prescribed burns to take place at Lake Naconiche during 2022. During the year, the Lake Naconiche Park and Lake Naconiche Spillway will be burned for a total of 66 acres. Lake Naconiche Park – 17 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 Lake Naconiche Spillway – 49 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, control invasive species and to protect infrastructure of the dam by removal of woody vegetation and enhance the growth of grasses. Each prescribed burn has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Nearby residents can expect some lingering smoke...

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 2 13:46:01 UTC 2022.

MD 0107 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022 Areas affected...central and northeastern Illinois...west-central and northwestern Indiana...and southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 021311Z - 021815Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1" per hour are expected to continue through the morning from central and northeastern Illinois into southwestern lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave troughing at mid levels is shifting into Missouri at this time, within southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern fringe of the larger, synoptic-scale trough over the West. As a result, maintenance of quasi-geostrophic ascent in the vicinity of the southward-moving cold front continues to support widespread precipitation from eastern Kansas to the Midwest. Within this broad area of precipitation, the heaviest snowfall is ongoing from central and northeastern Illinois northeastward. A temporary minimum in snowfall is indicated by radar across a portion of northwestern Indiana, but this is expected to be a transient situation as heavy snow spreads from southwest to northeast across the area. With time, snowfall will taper from the west, as the aforementioned short-wave trough advances. In the mean time however, snowfall rates of an inch per hour will continue through late morning. ..Goss.. 02/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 38929129 39799032 41288908 42148671 42498527 42428498 41938492 39868682 38848941 38929129 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States today and tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-tropospheric pattern will be dominated this period by progressive, positively tilted troughing from the Hudson Bay region across the Rockies, to northwestern MX and the adjoining subtropical/tropical eastern Pacific. This high-amplitude troughing results from several fairly well-phased synoptic to subsynoptic troughs, including a strong shortwave perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Great Basin and western AZ. The latter feature will strengthen and move southeastward to AZ and northern Sonora by 00Z, spreading a strengthening plume of DCVA/ ascent aloft across parts of eastern AZ and central/southern NM, west of the frontal zone described below. Isolated thunder may occur in associated convection, with weak but sufficient low/middle-level moisture. The mid/upper perturbation should pivot eastward to southern CO and central/southern NM by 12Z tomorrow. Farther east, a strong surface cold front was analyzed from southern ON across central IN, to a weak low over northwestern AR, then across extreme southeastern OK, north-central TX, the Edwards Plateau, Davis Mountains area, and northwestward over central NM. The front should move relatively slowly through 00Z, reaching easternmost ON, southwestern OH, western portions of KY/TN, northern MS, northern LA, south-central to far west TX, and central/north- central NM. By 12Z, a weak frontal-wave low may develop along the front over the Gulf and move inland over southwestern LA, in response to the approaching trough. The front should extend from there northeastward to WV and eastern NY, and southwestward across the TX shelf waters to deep south TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in two initially separate plumes of lift that will offset in time: 1. A broad, somewhat triangular belt of low-level convergence today into early evening, amidst weak CINH, extending from the central Gulf north-northeastward across portions of MS/AL and southeastern LA. 2. A swath of low-level warm advection and moisture transport from the northwestern Gulf across south and east TX this evening, shifting eastward/inland and extending over parts of LA, AR and MS by 12Z. This area of ascent will be enhanced on its western rim by frontal processes as the baroclinic zone moves into the outlook area. The air mass inland remains cool and stable. However, modifying marine-layer air over the western Gulf (in the wake of the convection and the mid/upper wave from 24-36 hours ago) will advect northward/inland through the period, ahead of the cold front. Deep shear will increase over the western plume tonight, and a few cells (including low-end supercell potential) with small hail and strong gusts cannot be ruled out tonight over parts of LA, with small hail also possible from elevated/post-frontal convection over east TX. Temperatures and dew points in the low/mid 60s may reach parts of LA tonight ahead of the front, beneath weak low/middle-level lapse rates. At least a shallow stable layer will remain at the surface through most of the period, keeping any thunderstorm-gust or tornado potential too conditional and isolated for a categorical outlook area overnight. Though severe potential appears more unconditional and organized on day 2, some concern exists that surface-based parcels could reach areas of supercell potential in central LA the last couple hours of the overnight period. Moisture-return and prognostic trends will be monitored for a more-certain unconditional threat in subsequent outlooks. ..Edwards/Goss.. 02/02/2022 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. A surface cold front over the western Atlantic into central FL and eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift east/southeast on Day 4/Saturday. This front will develop well south into the southern Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean vicinity. A series of mid/upper-level troughs will develop and track across the U.S. east of the Rockies during the period. Additionally, a couple surface cold fronts will sweep across much of the central/eastern U.S. through Day 8/Wednesday. This will keep Gulf moisture well offshore and generally dry/stable conditions will prevail, limiting thunderstorm potential. Read more

MD 0106 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 020935Z - 021430Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of 1" per hour will occur over the next several hours across portions of the eastern Kansas vicinity. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the surface cold front moving steadily southward -- south of the I-44 corridor in southwestern Missouri and Oklahoma. As this occurs, cold air filtering in behind the front has allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across east-central and parts of southeastern Kansas, where a band of locally heavy snowfall is evolving. The precipitation appears to be associated with a zone of QG ascent associated with a passing, subtle short-wave trough/vort max, expected to cross Missouri later this morning. Given its apparent association with this feature, the band of snow will shift east-northeastward with time, and eventually taper off from west to east. Prior to that, snowfall rates around 1" per hour are expected within this band of snow. ..Goss.. 02/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39209468 38739469 38189501 37399699 37079791 37459785 38119747 38909676 39329542 39499498 39209468 Read more

Drought conditions are intensifying in Central Texas, and moisture is needed before spring planting. Hard freezes have damaged oat and wheat crops. The expectation of significant precipitation in coming weeks has corn growers purchasing seed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022

Winter wheat in the Southern High Plains in Oklahoma and Texas was in rough shape due to drought, according to AgriLife Extension grain economist at Bryan-College Station. While it has been reported that emerged wheat fields were lost to dry conditions, there is still time for dryland wheat to recover and make grain. Wheat is struggling, but the crop is still dormant in most parts of Texas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 1 21:29:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 1 21:29:01 UTC 2022.

Warm, dry conditions in Goshen County were helping cattle and livestock conditions. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 30, 2022

The San Luis Valley received minimal moisture during January and remained dry. Mild weather and lack of snow allowed livestock to remain pastured longer than normal. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Jan 25, 2022

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely over the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 02/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022/ ...LA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring ahead of this system offshore of the LA coast. There remains a low probability of a few lightning flashes near the immediate coast this afternoon, but the bulk of the deep convection is expected to remain offshore. This potential will wane after 00z. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions are expected to prelude organized thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the current outlook. See the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday, further driving a surface cold front into the Gulf of Mexico. Behind the cold front, cold/wintry weather is expected across the central and southern Plains, limiting wildfire concerns. Strong, dry offshore flow is also expected tomorrow across southern California. While Critical meteorological surface conditions are expected to be in place, fuels remain too moist to support significant wildfire-spread potential, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more