SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 years 9 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and recent hi-res ensemble guidance. Winds are already strengthening to 15-20 mph across the southern Plains as the regional pressure gradient tightens. Additionally, RH reductions into the 30-40% range are noted across parts of the high Plains, which lends further support to the ongoing forecast. While the strongest winds remain expected across northern OK/central KS, the probability for elevated conditions remains most likely across northeast NM into southeast CO. Forecast concerns regarding the mid-Missouri Valley, outlined in the previous discussion below, remain valid based on recent surface trends and morning guidance. ..Moore.. 10/18/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough now along the northern California coast will progress eastward and become more closed off with time. As this feature nears the Four Corners, a deepening lee trough and cyclogenesis is expected in the central High Plains. With the anticyclone maintaining strength within the Southeast, strong southerly winds are likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado... The deepening lee trough will combine with modestly strengthening westerly winds aloft to promote breezy conditions during the afternoon. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible and are the higher confidence portion of the forecast. RH during the afternoon continues to be rather varied in guidance. The typically dry HRRR shows a period of about 3-4 hours where elevated to near critical conditions are possible. With a general moistening trend expected, dry conditions will depend on downslope winds along the southern Rockies. Highlights remain where dry grasses exist and where confidence is highest in a few hours of elevated conditions. ...Mid-Missouri Valley vicinity... A low-level jet is expected to develop in response to the approaching shortwave. Some of the stronger winds in the Plains are expected in this region for that reason. While RH is likely to have improved from the diurnal minima seen Sunday afternoon, 25-30% is possible in some areas with localized values near 20%. Locally elevated fire concerns are possible within cured crops and corn stover. Confidence in RH and broadly dry fuels is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Boundary Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
Yesterday, there were cloudy skies and cool temperatures over the fire area.  In the late afternoon, rain came down over the fire area.  The lightning caused Boundary Fire was detected on August 10, 2021.  The fire is located in steep, inaccessible terrain in heavy fuels in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness on the Middle Fork Ranger District.  After five days of heavy initial attack, a National Preparedness Level 5, which is the highest level of wildland fire activity, the Salmon-Challis National Forest reevaluated their strategy for the fire.  Fire managers are using a point protection strategy, which protects specific assets or highly valued resources from the wildfire without directly halting the continued spread of the wildfire.  Values at risk are defined as property, structures, physical improvements, natural and cultural resources, community infrastructure, and economic, environmental, and social values such as the Middle Fork River corridor.  In...

Mud Lick Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
The Mud Lick Fire was detected 23 miles NW of Salmon on July 8. The fire is 20,857 acres and is 70% completed.  Currently, just a few areas of isolated heat remain and creeping is being observed. An IR Flight the evening of September 16 showed isolated heat near Deer Lake and in the upper reaches of Big Deer Creek.  The Forest will continue to monitor the fire by air.  

CAIWA Annual Academy (Prescribed Fire)

3 years 9 months ago
 The 23rd annual Capital Area Interagency Wildfire and Incident Management Academy (CAIWA) began this week at the Camp Swift National Guard Facility in Bastrop, Texas. The academy will take place October 8-20, 2021.Each year, firefighters travel from across the state and nation to attend the academy to continue their education and earn National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) training qualifications. The mission of Texas Interagency Wildfire and Incident Management Academies, including CAIWA, is to enhance wildland firefighters’ knowledge, utilizing NWCG standards, while promoting safe and cost-effective operations. Four prescribed fires are expected to take place during this year's academy, one each during two sessions of S-130/190: Firefighter Training and Introduction to Wildland Fire Behavior and one each during two sessions of S-219: Firing Operations courses.While these prescribed fires play an instrumental role in the continuing education of student wildland...

SPC Oct 18, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years 9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude troughs now over the West Coast States and northeastern CONUS/southeastern Canada will evolve into closed cyclones as they move eastward. The western 500-mb low -- now taking shape near northern parts of the CA/NV state line -- will move eastward across the Great Basin through today and into early tonight. By 12Z, the low should pivot slightly northeastward from east-central UT toward the Flaming Gorge area near the UT/WY/CO border confluence. Preceding height falls, difluence and DCVA/ cooling aloft, and midlevel moistening will spread across portions of the Great Basin and north-central Rockies today into this evening, supporting showers and isolated to widely scattered, mostly weak thunderstorms. With a dry and locally well-mixed diurnal boundary layer over lower elevations of northern UT, some of this activity may produce strong gusts. However, meager amounts of total moisture and low-level theta-e will limit overall thunderstorm coverage, and preclude an organized severe threat. Isolated thunder, with locally gusty winds, also is possible from high-based, low-CAPE convection atop the diurnal mixed layer in parts of far west TX this afternoon into early evening. This activity will be supported by subtle southwest-flow perturbations in midlevels, and weak large-scale scent beneath the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved subtropical-jet segment. Lack of greater low-level moisture/theta-e will be a major limiting factor. Elsewhere, the post-frontal air mass across the northern, central and eastern CONUS should remain too dry and/or stable to support thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 10/18/2021 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years 9 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days a
couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Alder Creek Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
The Alder Creek Fire started on July 8, 2021 approximately 7 miles West of Wise River, Montana, in the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. The cause of the Alder Creek Fire has not been determined. The fire terrain is made up of forest timber with 2 feet high underbrush and heavy fuel loads of dead and down Lodgepole Pine. The surrounding valleys are characterized by short sage and grass mix.Forest Closure orders have been rescinded: Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF: Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest - Alerts & Notices (usda.gov) for most up to date information on closures. Fire activity is minimal due to the weather and shorter cooler nights. Occasional smoke could be visible on warmer drier days.  Use caution in the fire area. Watch for snags, falling trees and traffic.  Firefighters may still be in the fire area cleaning up and completing rehab

Sand Lake Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
   The Sand Lake fire started on September 1, 2021 approximately 11 miles northeast of Wise River, Montana. Located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest, the fire is burning in a Wilderness Study Area and is  extremely rugged and rocky terrain. Forest Closure orders have been rescinded: Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF: Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest - Alerts & Notices (usda.gov) for most up to date information on closures.  Fire activity is minimal due to the weather and shorter cooler nights. Occasional smoke could be visible on warmer drier days.  Use caution in the fire area. Watch for snags and falling

Haystack Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
The Dillon Interagency Dispatch received a report of a possible fire start near Haystack Mountain to the east of I-15 between the communities of Butte and Basin on July 31, 2021. Helicopters provided bucket drops in the fire area. Agency administrators and fire leadership initially determined the area to be unsafe for ground crews due to large boulders, steep slopes, a large number of snags, difficult terrain, and no safe locations to insert or extract crews. On September 6, the fire spotted (threw embers)into a continuous pocket of timber to the east near Little Boulder Park. Crews at this time began taking actions to protect private in-holdings and structures in the area. Crews are now able to safely engage some of the fire from the ground and are being supported by aircraft.Burnout operations are ongoing on the northeast side of the fire to reduce the risk to private property and structures south of Boulder. Great Basin Type 2 Incident Management Team #4 assumed command of the...

Hay Creek (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
October 14, 2021 Final Update: The Hay Creek Fire was declared Contained on September 14, 2021, and declared Controlled on October 12, 2021. As of October 13, 2021 all closures related to the fire have been

Tiltill (Wildfire)

3 years 9 months ago
On July 30th and 31st, lightning caused 10 wildfires in Yosemite National Park. The Tiltill fire is being suppressed. This fire is located in Tiltill Valley, North of Hetch Hetchy.This fire may be visible from numerous vantage points throughout the park, including Tioga Road and other high-country viewpoints. It also may be visible from points West outside the Park. Smoke will also be present from other regional fires in California through out parts of Yosemite NP. Air Quality Conditions for Yosemite National Park can be found at: www.nps.gov/yose/learn/nature/aqmonitoring Yosemite National Park is a fire-adapted ecosystem. The strategy for all fires is to provide for the safety of employees and public, as well as protect natural and cultural resources. Currently there are no threats to infrastructure. But there are Trail closures in the fire area. See the Article tab on this