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Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 127 WTPZ31 KNHC 052049 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 ...JOVA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 108.3W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 108.3 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days. The system is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is forecast to rapidly intensify and is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake

...JOVA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 the center of Jova was located near 12.9, -108.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 142 WTPZ21 KNHC 052048 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND FROM MISSOURI AND VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley/Lake Superior region, and across the Ozarks and parts of Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible. ...Discussion... Along with minor line tweaks in a few areas, including some eastward expansion of thunder into parts of Wyoming for the overnight period, the only other substantive change at this time is the northward expansion of SLGT risk/15% wind into parts of northern Missouri. Here, a similar thermodynamic pre-frontal environment is indicated as compared to areas a bit farther south, and several CAM runs are indicating development along the front may extend a bit farther north than previously hinted at in the outlook. Otherwise, expectations remain similar to those in prior outlooks. ..Goss.. 09/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough over the Dakotas this morning will continue eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. A slight cooling of mid-level temperatures (-10C at 500 mb) will accompany this trough, while only a modest strengthening of trough-preceding winds aloft is expected, given that the trough is somewhat removed from the stronger westerlies over the Canadian prairies. While some warm-sector cloud cover persists early today regionally, the boundary layer ahead of an eastward-moving cold front should become minimally inhibited by early into mid-afternoon, with MLCAPE reaching 2500+ J/kg especially across the eastern halves of Minnesota and Iowa, as well as much of western Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois. Initial thunderstorm intensification is expected this afternoon across northern/central Minnesota, potentially with an ongoing band of storms across northern Minnesota, and more so near the aforementioned front and surface wave, with subsequent scattered development southward into southeast Minnesota/eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin through late afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with a mixed mode of storms including multicells and some transient supercells. Some tornado risk may exist as well, mainly across northeast Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains... Widely scattered mid-level convection across the region trails a shortwave trough centered generally near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers. This convection is atop a warm-sector boundary layer that will heat and become strongly unstable by peak heating, particularly across eastern Oklahoma into Missouri western/northern Arkansas ahead of an east/southeastward-moving front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon near the front, and somewhat across the warm sector, potentially influenced by lingering cloud cover/zones of differential heating. While tropospheric winds will only be modest strength (effective shear less than 30 kt), strong heating, steep lapse rates, and ample buoyancy will support the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts, especially with the aforementioned corridor of greatest destabilization. Some severe hail may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND FROM MISSOURI AND VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley/Lake Superior region, and across the Ozarks and parts of Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible. ...Discussion... Along with minor line tweaks in a few areas, including some eastward expansion of thunder into parts of Wyoming for the overnight period, the only other substantive change at this time is the northward expansion of SLGT risk/15% wind into parts of northern Missouri. Here, a similar thermodynamic pre-frontal environment is indicated as compared to areas a bit farther south, and several CAM runs are indicating development along the front may extend a bit farther north than previously hinted at in the outlook. Otherwise, expectations remain similar to those in prior outlooks. ..Goss.. 09/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough over the Dakotas this morning will continue eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. A slight cooling of mid-level temperatures (-10C at 500 mb) will accompany this trough, while only a modest strengthening of trough-preceding winds aloft is expected, given that the trough is somewhat removed from the stronger westerlies over the Canadian prairies. While some warm-sector cloud cover persists early today regionally, the boundary layer ahead of an eastward-moving cold front should become minimally inhibited by early into mid-afternoon, with MLCAPE reaching 2500+ J/kg especially across the eastern halves of Minnesota and Iowa, as well as much of western Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois. Initial thunderstorm intensification is expected this afternoon across northern/central Minnesota, potentially with an ongoing band of storms across northern Minnesota, and more so near the aforementioned front and surface wave, with subsequent scattered development southward into southeast Minnesota/eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin through late afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with a mixed mode of storms including multicells and some transient supercells. Some tornado risk may exist as well, mainly across northeast Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains... Widely scattered mid-level convection across the region trails a shortwave trough centered generally near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers. This convection is atop a warm-sector boundary layer that will heat and become strongly unstable by peak heating, particularly across eastern Oklahoma into Missouri western/northern Arkansas ahead of an east/southeastward-moving front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon near the front, and somewhat across the warm sector, potentially influenced by lingering cloud cover/zones of differential heating. While tropospheric winds will only be modest strength (effective shear less than 30 kt), strong heating, steep lapse rates, and ample buoyancy will support the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts, especially with the aforementioned corridor of greatest destabilization. Some severe hail may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND FROM MISSOURI AND VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley/Lake Superior region, and across the Ozarks and parts of Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible. ...Discussion... Along with minor line tweaks in a few areas, including some eastward expansion of thunder into parts of Wyoming for the overnight period, the only other substantive change at this time is the northward expansion of SLGT risk/15% wind into parts of northern Missouri. Here, a similar thermodynamic pre-frontal environment is indicated as compared to areas a bit farther south, and several CAM runs are indicating development along the front may extend a bit farther north than previously hinted at in the outlook. Otherwise, expectations remain similar to those in prior outlooks. ..Goss.. 09/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough over the Dakotas this morning will continue eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. A slight cooling of mid-level temperatures (-10C at 500 mb) will accompany this trough, while only a modest strengthening of trough-preceding winds aloft is expected, given that the trough is somewhat removed from the stronger westerlies over the Canadian prairies. While some warm-sector cloud cover persists early today regionally, the boundary layer ahead of an eastward-moving cold front should become minimally inhibited by early into mid-afternoon, with MLCAPE reaching 2500+ J/kg especially across the eastern halves of Minnesota and Iowa, as well as much of western Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois. Initial thunderstorm intensification is expected this afternoon across northern/central Minnesota, potentially with an ongoing band of storms across northern Minnesota, and more so near the aforementioned front and surface wave, with subsequent scattered development southward into southeast Minnesota/eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin through late afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with a mixed mode of storms including multicells and some transient supercells. Some tornado risk may exist as well, mainly across northeast Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains... Widely scattered mid-level convection across the region trails a shortwave trough centered generally near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers. This convection is atop a warm-sector boundary layer that will heat and become strongly unstable by peak heating, particularly across eastern Oklahoma into Missouri western/northern Arkansas ahead of an east/southeastward-moving front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon near the front, and somewhat across the warm sector, potentially influenced by lingering cloud cover/zones of differential heating. While tropospheric winds will only be modest strength (effective shear less than 30 kt), strong heating, steep lapse rates, and ample buoyancy will support the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts, especially with the aforementioned corridor of greatest destabilization. Some severe hail may occur as well. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather potential remains limited across the country for the extended period. Upper-level ridging is forecast to re-establish over northern Mexico into the Southwest/Four Corners region through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Heading into next week, ensemble means and cluster analyses depict a de-amplification of this ridge as longwave troughing becomes established over the eastern third of the CONUS. While the resulting amplitudes of the ridge/trough are uncertain, this synoptic pattern typically favors warming/drying conditions across the Southwest, Great Basin, and West Coast with cooler temperatures and rain chances east of the Rockies. Fuels are currently unreceptive across much of the West, but may see some curing during this period. Across the Plains where fuels are dry, fire weather concerns will likely remain localized through the extended period with limited predictability at this range. ...D3/Thursday to D4/Friday - Southern High Plains... One such area of localized fire weather concern may emerge across the TX/OK Panhandles into western OK D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. A zonal to northwest flow regime over the central Rockies should foster a deepening lee trough from northeast NM into CO during this period. Increasing south/southwesterly winds with trajectories emanating from the southern Rockies may experience sufficient drying to support areas of 20-25% RH and winds near 15 mph. While deterministic solutions suggest elevated conditions will occur, considerable spread is noted in ensemble guidance, which limits confidence in the threat at this point. However, this region has maintained dry fuels with several fires noted in recent days, so trends will be monitored in subsequent outlooks for the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather potential remains limited across the country for the extended period. Upper-level ridging is forecast to re-establish over northern Mexico into the Southwest/Four Corners region through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Heading into next week, ensemble means and cluster analyses depict a de-amplification of this ridge as longwave troughing becomes established over the eastern third of the CONUS. While the resulting amplitudes of the ridge/trough are uncertain, this synoptic pattern typically favors warming/drying conditions across the Southwest, Great Basin, and West Coast with cooler temperatures and rain chances east of the Rockies. Fuels are currently unreceptive across much of the West, but may see some curing during this period. Across the Plains where fuels are dry, fire weather concerns will likely remain localized through the extended period with limited predictability at this range. ...D3/Thursday to D4/Friday - Southern High Plains... One such area of localized fire weather concern may emerge across the TX/OK Panhandles into western OK D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. A zonal to northwest flow regime over the central Rockies should foster a deepening lee trough from northeast NM into CO during this period. Increasing south/southwesterly winds with trajectories emanating from the southern Rockies may experience sufficient drying to support areas of 20-25% RH and winds near 15 mph. While deterministic solutions suggest elevated conditions will occur, considerable spread is noted in ensemble guidance, which limits confidence in the threat at this point. However, this region has maintained dry fuels with several fires noted in recent days, so trends will be monitored in subsequent outlooks for the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain low for Wednesday across the country. Latest guidance continues to show a weak signal for localized elevated fire weather conditions across the greater Four Corners region, but the patchy nature of the threat, combined with poor fuel status, precludes any highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will modestly intensify in the southern Rockies. A surface front will largely stall near the Red River. With cooler temperatures and lighter winds expected across areas with dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain low for Wednesday across the country. Latest guidance continues to show a weak signal for localized elevated fire weather conditions across the greater Four Corners region, but the patchy nature of the threat, combined with poor fuel status, precludes any highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will modestly intensify in the southern Rockies. A surface front will largely stall near the Red River. With cooler temperatures and lighter winds expected across areas with dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain low for Wednesday across the country. Latest guidance continues to show a weak signal for localized elevated fire weather conditions across the greater Four Corners region, but the patchy nature of the threat, combined with poor fuel status, precludes any highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will modestly intensify in the southern Rockies. A surface front will largely stall near the Red River. With cooler temperatures and lighter winds expected across areas with dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

Some boating ramps on Lake Corpus Christi were closed, due to low water levels. The Opposum Bend boat ramp closed around the start of August. KIII-TV (Corpus Christi, Texas), Sept 4, 2023

A corn grower in Walworth County was cutting up corn for feed for dairy cows. The corn would typically be harvested later in September, but dry conditions required that he cut the corn, or it would soon be too dry to use as feed. The growth of hay and soybeans was also stunted by drought. CBS58 (Milwaukee, Wis.), Sept 4, 2023

Drought has reduced water supplies in the Fairfield area, leaving less for firefighting. It was getting challenging for rural departments that rely on ponds and creeks in areas that lack hydrants. Some fill sites were no longer useable as streams dwindled to just a trickle. Residents should be cautious about any outdoor burning and douse campfires and fire pits thoroughly before leaving them. Ground wasp nests should not be ignited to eradicate them. Gettysburg Times (Pa.), Sept 4, 2023

Drought and heat have curbed hay production in Texas, leaving supplies low and the cost of hay bales high. Producers were looking for alternatives to feed in place of hay. When hay is plentiful, it sells for about $120 per bale. In 2022, the price climbed to $160. This year the cost has been about $140. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Sept 4, 2023

Streamflow and groundwater in the Shenandoah Valley were very low, below the 10th percentile. Switzer Lake, one of Harrisonburg’s two main water supplies, was also very low and contained about 118 days’ worth of water. Inflows were about 17% of normal. Rainfall typically increases in October and November. Hay and corn production have been harshly affected by the drought. Water conservation is encouraged. WMRA-FM (Harrisonburg, Va.), Sept 5, 2023

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE CYS TO 25 WSW TOR TO 55 ENE DGW TO 60 ESE GCC TO 50 ENE GCC TO 35 N GCC TO 45 W GCC TO 40 NNW CPR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 ..LYONS..09/04/23 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-075-042340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER POWDER RIVER NEC007-013-045-123-157-165-042340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE DAWES MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC019-033-047-055-063-081-093-102-103-105-137-042340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 666 SEVERE TSTM MT NE SD WY 042005Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon across the region. Storms will initially be capable of large hail and damaging winds, with severe wind potential likely to increase by evening into and across western South Dakota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Buffalo SD to 40 miles southwest of Scottsbluff NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more