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 Firefighters declared the 86-acre Ptarmigan Fire 100 percent contained on Oct. 14 following additional moisture across the area. With the fire 100 percent contained, the Dillon Ranger District is lifting the closure of the burned area and trails leading into the burned area. Forest officials caution the public that there is an additional risk of falling trees and rocks in and around a burned area following a wildfire. “We appreciate the close coordination among the many agencies and organizations involved in the Ptarmigan Fire response, particularly the Summit County Sheriff’s Office and Summit Fire and EMS,” said Deputy Dillon District Ranger Chris Stewart. “We also appreciate the support and patience of the community.”   Firefighters will continue to patrol and monitor the burned area over the next several weeks. A Ptarmigan Fire community debrief featuring the Summit County Sheriff’s Office, Summit Fire and EMS, and the U.S. Forest Service will be held Oct. 21...

The primary objective of this burn is hazard fuel reduction.  Fuel loadings are light to moderate and ladder fuels are minimal due to thinning operations that have taken place or will take place prior to burning.  Objectives will be easily achieved using a standard strip head ignition pattern, and a locally typical burn organization with two levels of supervision consisting of a Type 2 Burn Boss supervising a Firing Boss and a Holding Boss.   Potential safety hazards are typical and easily mitigated and addressed in briefings.  Light to moderate overnight smoke impacts to local residences are expected, with short periods of moderate to heavy impacts during ignition.  These impacts will be mitigated by burning on days with good or better ventilation when possible, by monitoring smoke impacts and varying the amount and pattern of ignition as necessary.   Private residences are adjacent to the burn units, but are located in areas of mixed fuels comprised of ponderosa pine with...

The Muddy Slide Fire remains 4,093 acres and 80% contained. The fire is currently managed as a Type 4 incident with firefighters in the area monitoring for activity. The fire continues to smolder within its existing footprint with limited potential for spread. Information is being updates on an as-needed

 Starting on 10/18/21: Fire crews are looking at burning more units of the Redondo RX project. 1,907 acres on the Copperton unit located three miles west of Post Office Flats on Forest Service Road (FSR) 480 in the Zuni Mountains, and 663 acres on the Sawyer unit four miles west of Post Office Flats. Smoke may be visible in the surrounding areas of Ramah, Gallup, Thoreau, Bluewater, Grants and

Drought to the west of Lake Superior has allowed the lake’s level to drop in August below the seasonal average for the first time in more than 7 years. Tributaries in northern Minnesota that typically flow into Lake Superior were barely flowing and, in some cases, not flowing into the massive lake anymore, due to drought. The St. Louis River, the largest U.S. tributary to Lake Superior, was flowing in August at just 10% normal. Lake Superior generally rises from April through August and then slowly drops from September to March. Duluth News Tribune (Minn.), Sept 7, 2021

With August inflows much below average, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plans to reduce releases from Fort Peck Dam from 9,500 cubic feet per second to 5,000 cfs in September. Inflows are expected to remain below average for the remainder of 2021. Billings Gazette (Mont.), Sept 3, 2021

The city of Ventura stopped pumping water from its wells near Foster Park as flows slowed in the Ventura River, marking the first time pumping completely ceased under an interim settlement with Santa Barbara Channelkeeper. River flows improved once the pumping ended. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), Sept 8, 2021

The Santa Clara Valley Water District declared a drought emergency in June and requested that customers reduce their water use by 15%, but the plea seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Residents curbed their water use by 6% in July. Santa Clara’s 10 reservoirs were just 12% full on Sept. 7. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), Sept 8, 2021

The Character Complex was originally comprised of two fires: The Deceitful and Prichard fires. The Complex is located on the Coeur d'Alene River Ranger District of the Idaho Panhandle National Forests. The fires were originally detected on July 7th, 2021 due to a thunderstorm that ignited multiple fires throughout the Idaho Panhandle. The Prichard Fire was turned back over to the CDA River Ranger District on 08/14/21 and is no longer reflected in the latest information. The most current incident information below reflects only the statistics for the Deceitful Fire as it is the only uncontained fire within the Character Complex. Know Before You Go: The Character Complex and incidents to the west and across the region are anticipated to persist into the coming weeks, resulting in area closures, visible smoke, decreased air quality, and impacts to travel and recreational activities. Local community members and visitors to the towns and recreation areas within and around the Idaho...

Lightning originally came through July 7 and started 7 fires.  Two fires merged, leaving 6 fires.  The fires were named Trestle 1 through 6.  July 8, Trestle 1 and Trestle 4 burned together leaving 5 fires: Trestle 1, Trestle 2, Trestle 3, Trestle 5 and Trestle 6.The Trestle Creek Complex saw significant growth July 30 – August 1 as a weather system moved into the region.  Winds from the northeast reached 25 mph causing wind-driven fire growth to the  southwest and starting spot fires up to ¾ of a mile ahead of the fire.Residents are no longer under evacuation

The Stateline Fire Complex is located Southwest of St. Regis, Montana. The lightning caused fires began July, 7, 2021 and burning in mixed conifer forest. Currently, the complex consists of 12 individual fires: Berge Peak, Broadax, Deception,  Dolly Creek, Fly, Fly Creek, Simmons-Leg, Simmons Ridge, Simmons Ridge, Swimming Bear, Tumbledown, and Wampus Creek. Tumbledown and Dolly Creek Fires are currently the two largest included in the complex. Know Before You Go: The Stateline Complex and incidents to the west and across the region are anticipated to persist into the coming weeks, resulting in area closures, visible smoke, decreased air quality, and impacts to travel and recreational activities. Local community members and visitors to the towns and recreation areas within and around the Idaho Panhandle National Forests are encouraged to stay informed of the fire activity within and around the Stateline Complex. See Idaho Fire Map for more

Following a round of lightning in the afternoon on August 2, four new fires were identified on the south end of the Mt. Hood National Forest. Three of the fires the Janus, Kola, and Ridge Fires were located in the southeast corner of the Bull of the Woods Wilderness in the Janus Butte area. The fourth fire, Round Lake Fire, was located in the east of the Bull of the Woods Wilderness.  And a fifth fire, Ogre Creek Fire, was located on August 3 in the Round Lake area.By August 18, the fires had expanded towards one another and joined to make up the Bull Complex (briefly called the Janus Complex). The fire is currently being managed Northwest Incident Management Team (NWIMT) 13.  A fire camp is located at the Timber Lake Job Corps Center at Ripplebrook to support the firefighters with food, water, supplies, and basic care items.  The Willamette National Forest and Oregon Department of Forestry are both actively engaged with fire managers.  NWIMT 13 is coordinating with...

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 14 13:51:02 UTC 2021.

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 14 13:51:02 UTC 2021.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND SEPARATELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today from northeastern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley region, and later this evening across portions of Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... While remaining highly amplified, the pattern aloft will shift this period, primarily related to the longstanding mid/upper-level troughing now centered over the Rockies. An amplifying shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and northern NV -- will move southeastward to the Four Corners vicinity by 00Z. This trough then should pivot eastward across the central/southern Rockies to the adjoining High Plains by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream, a compact cyclone now centered near the northwestern corner of MN will eject roughly northward on a wobbly path toward northern MB by the end of the period. In the southern- stream southwest-flow field southeast of the major trough, a perturbation related to the remnants of Pamela aloft will eject from south TX across the Tennessee Valley and weaken considerably. The surface analysis at 11Z showed a cold front related to the ejecting MN/ND/MB cyclone, extending across portions of eastern WI, northwestern IL and central MO, becoming quasistationary southwestward to a weak frontal-wave low over the TX Panhandle. The front was preceded by a swath of multilayered clouds, precip and some embedded thunderstorms from the southern Lake Michigan area southwestward across MO to south TX. By 00Z, the cold front should reach parts of Lower MI, central IN and southern IL. The boundary should stall today and then move slowly northward as a warm front across parts of southwestern MO and southeastern KS, to a frontal-wave low over south-central KS, then to another frontal-wave low over northwest TX. By 12Z, the KS low should migrate roughly eastward over MO and southern IL, with the trailing boundary again a cold front across southwestern MO, eastern/southern OK, and west-central/southwest TX. ...AR to the lower Ohio Valley region... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move northeastward across this region today, both in the existing, slowly eastward-shifting plume and developing anew near its leading edges (where best access to diurnally destabilized boundary-layer air should be). Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible, and a marginal/brief tornado potential is apparent. A corridor of moisture advection/transport will move over the area today, sourced from the mid/upper remnants of Pamela over south TX, as well as rich moisture from the Gulf in low levels. The result should be a weakly capped boundary layer with modest but still somewhat unstable low/middle-level lapse rates, and strong upper/ anvil-level flow. Forecast soundings show effective-shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt, suggesting mainly variably organized multicells, with sporadic/transient supercell potential. Cloud cover will keep diurnal heating from yielding steep low-level lapse rates, but MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range will be supported by the abundant moisture. Elsewhere in the main precip/convective plume from south TX to Lower MI, a strong/damaging gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out; however, with weaker lift and storm coverage south, and weak instability north, the threat is too conditional, isolated and poorly focused for a large categorical severe area. ...OK... Capping may delay substantial thunderstorm initiation and growth until after 00Z -- perhaps even as late as 03-06z. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening into tonight will offer a threat for hail and strong gusts. Marginal, weak tornado potential also is apparent along/ahead of the front, given the strengthening deep shear and available moisture. Large-scale lift should increase over the region this afternoon and tonight with the approach of the main mid/upper trough, reinforced by the digging shortwave perturbation. The returning warm sector has been altered somewhat unfavorably by extensive precip/convection upstream to the south, yet still should contain enough theta-e to support strong/isolated severe potential as it is lifted along and over the surface front. Even with a shallow/near-surface stable layer apparent in forecast soundings, MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg appears possible in the warm sector, along with similar values of elevated MUCAPE within about 50-100 nm behind the boundary. 500-250-mb layer winds will strengthen over this area from late afternoon into tonight, contributing to 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes in support of supercell potential. Limiting factors for the severe threat will include lack of greater low- and middle-level lapse rates tonight, limiting buoyancy and near-surface acceleration potential for both updrafts and downdrafts. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 10/14/2021 Read more

789
ABPZ20 KNHC 141128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 14 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The 681490 Fire is located in Hidalgo County, north of McCook near the intersection of FM 490 and FM 681. The fire is burning in a grass field with no structures threatened. The fire was exhibiting active and wind-driven fire behavior. Twenty fire departments were on scene with heavy equipment and overhead personnel from Texas A&M Forest Service and private heavy equipment utilized to construct containment

The Antelope Fire was first discovered on Sunday, August 1, 2021, in the Antelope Creek drainage on the Goosenest Ranger District of the Klamath National Forest. The Antelope Fire was one of several lightning-caused fires that occurred as a result of thunderstorms passing through the area. Firefighters are implementing a full suppression strategy to keep the fire footprint as small as possible. Crews are currently working on fireline suppression repair to mitigate damages caused during firefighting work.Closures are in effect for the Antelope Fire Area. You can find the current closure information here on Inciweb under the Closures tab above. However, we are currently unable to post the closure maps on Inciweb. If you want the complete information, including maps, on current closures, consider visiting the forest sites: Shasta Trinity National Forest (current closure in effect Sept. 23 – Oct. 22, 2021) - https://www.fs.usda.gov/alerts/stnf/alerts-notices ·        Klamath...

 THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERYThere are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands:-       Fire Suppression Repair-       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER)-       Long-Term Recovery and Restorationo   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts.o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands...