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MD 2067 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 662... FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Carolina coast Concerning...Tornado Watch 662... Valid 302136Z - 302230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 662 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for mini supercells and an attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes will likely continue to move northeast up the Carolina coast through the evening. A tornado watch will be considered to include portions of the Outer Banks to the northeast of the Tornado Watch #662 when the environment becomes more favorable for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Late afternoon radar imagery from KLTX (Wilmington, NC) shows a cluster of quasi-discrete supercells near the northeast SC coast/Grand Strand vicinity and adjacent continental shelf waters south of Cape Fear. A significant increase in low-level shear has been observed at KLTX during the past 2 hours with 0-1 km SRH (using observed storm motion) in excess of 400 m2/s2. With a nearly saturated profile and mid 70s surface dewpoints, only weak buoyancy is analyzed. However, the strengthening low-level shear profiles and enlarging hodographs will continue to be favorable for low-level mesocyclones over the next few hours as the outer bands of Idalia continue northeastward up the coast. The area of favorable shear/buoyancy will probably overspread portions of the Outer Banks later this evening. ..Smith/Grams.. 08/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 33427996 33767980 35397647 35447595 35287554 34847542 32957915 33147971 33427996 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Wetting rain is expected across a large portion of the Northwest and northern California on Day 2/3. As a result, dry fuels will primarily be limited to eastern Montana into North Dakota, and portions of central/east Texas into Louisiana and far western Mississippi. Windy conditions are expected across much of the Great Basin and into the central Rockies Day 3-5, but given current fuel states and an increase in low-level moisture with each day, fire weather concerns should remain minimal during this period. The greatest concern may start to materialize across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels are not quite dry at this time, but are trending that direction. Several days of dry and breezy conditions at the end of this week and into the weekend will dry fuels further and eventually they may be dry enough to support large fire spread. Therefore, fuel status will be monitored closely in this region and critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Bentley.. 08/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0662 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 662 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/30/23 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 662 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-047-129-141-302140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-043-049-051-053-089-302140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN HAMPTON HORRY JASPER WILLIAMSBURG AMZ250-252-254-256-330-350-352-302140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 662 TORNADO NC SC CW 301450Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern coastal North Carolina Coastal South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1050 AM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Hurricane Idalia will move northeastward today near the southeast Atlantic coast. The potential for tornadoes will increase through this afternoon across coastal South Carolina, and the tornado threat will also increase into southern coastal North Carolina later this afternoon into early tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles either side of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Charleston SC to 15 miles east of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 661... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 18030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a trough across Montana lifts northward into Canada on Thursday, a secondary trough will deepen across the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will keep increased west to southwesterly gradients across much of Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, with enhanced mid-level flow continuing to overspread these regions. Surface winds across northern Montana will be around 20-25 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Across central Wyoming, sustained winds around 20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Both of these regions have seen drying of fuels in recent windy/dry periods. However, ERCs remain largely at or below seasonal normals. Meteorological conditions will continue to be supportive of large fire growth and further drying of fuels, which supports maintaining an Elevated risk across Montana and introduction of an Elevated risk across central/southern Wyoming with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected through tonight mainly across the coastal Carolinas in association with Hurricane Idalia. ...Carolinas... The center of T.C. Idalia is forecast to move northeastward along the coastal counties of SC through tonight, and toward the Wilmington NC area by Thursday morning. Observations indicate upper 70s F dewpoints already in place across these areas, with broken bands of cells developing over the ocean and proceeding northwestward over land. Low-level shear will remain strong and favorable for tornadic supercells with 0-1 SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 developing northeastward ahead of the storm center. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2066. Tornado watch 662 remains in effect. ..Jewell.. 08/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023/ ...Southeast Atlantic coast through tonight... The weakening remnants of Hurricane Idalia are forecast to continue moving northeastward near the southeast Atlantic coast through tonight (see latest NHC advisories for additional information). Flow will continue to veer and weaken across central/north FL and the tornado threat will likewise diminish through the afternoon. Farther north, more backed low-level flow and larger, curved hodographs (effective SRH 300-400 m2/s2) are expected in advance of Idalia's core across some of southeast GA and coastal SC this afternoon. Inland rainfall will reinforce a coastal baroclinic zone which will help focus the tornado threat near and just inland from the coast where surface-based buoyancy will be largest, as outer rain band supercells move inland. A similar environment and attendant tornado threat will spread northeastward across coastal NC late this afternoon through tonight. ...New England this afternoon... A pronounced midlevel trough will move over New England this afternoon along with an associated surface cold front. There will be a narrow zone of destabilization along the front, where weak bands of convection will be possible with a very low chance of wind damage given the moderately strong midlevel flow. However, will not add an outlook area since the window of opportunity will be small and confidence in storm development is relatively low. ...Eastern MT/western ND this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains, and this midlevel trough will be preceded by a surface trough/cold front. Some high-based convection could occur along the front in the limited-moisture environment, and this convection could produce gusty outflow winds. The chance for severe outflow winds appears relatively low, precluding the need for an outlook area. Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE SSI TO 25 NNE SSI TO 25 W SAV. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW ARE BEING LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR SO. ..KERR..08/30/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-051-103-109-179-183-191-251-267-301900- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL AMZ354-301900- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM ...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

Mandatory stage two drought restrictions took effect in Pearland on Wednesday, Aug. 30. Houston Chronicle (Texas), Aug 30, 2023

Beaumont returned to stage two mandatory water restrictions from stage one. Residents were required to conserve and avoid non-essential water uses. 12 News (Beaumont, Texas), Aug 30, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

A farmer intended to make hay out of his soybeans, but they dried up so fast that the farmer didn’t even get hay from them. The farmer also worried about the loss of microorganisms in the soil dying from lack of water. KSN-TV Online (Wichita, Kan.), Aug 29, 2023

Residents of Dallas were asked to conserve water at the end of one of the hottest, driest summers on record. Customers were urged to use less water, parks and schools should irrigate half as much, restaurants should offer customers water only when it is requested, and motels should post a notice about drought conditions in rooms. Salem Statesman-Journal (Ore.), Aug 29, 2023

San Marcos entered Stage 4 drought restrictions on Aug. 27 as the levels of the Edwards Aquifer and Canyon Lake dropped lower. The San Marcos River has been flowing around 70 cubic feet per second, less than half of the historical average of 152 cfs. San Marcos has been in drought restrictions since March 2022. The University Star (San Marcos, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Stage 4 drought restrictions will begin in San Marcos on Aug. 27 as the aquifer level has fallen below 630 feet. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Aug. 21, 2023

A drought watch advisory was in effect for the Eastern Shore, the Northern Piedmont and Shenandoah Valley. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued the advisory in response to weather conditions and to raise public awareness of the potential for a significant drought. Precipitation has been below normal for the past 60 to 120 days for the Eastern Shore and parts of central and northern Virginia. WCAV-TV (Charlottesville, Va.), June 9, 2023

WW 0659 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/29/23 ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC035-049-059-292340- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEARWATER IDAHO LEMHI MTC001-023-039-057-063-077-081-093-292340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD DEER LODGE GRANITE MADISON MISSOULA POWELL RAVALLI SILVER BOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 659 SEVERE TSTM ID MT 292055Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 659 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Idaho Southwest Montana * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form and spread northeastward across northeast Idaho and southwest Montana through late evening. Storm clusters and short line segments will be capable of producing damaging outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Drummond MT to 45 miles southeast of Salmon ID. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

Wichita Falls has drought enforcers, which are people monitoring water use to spot those who violate the Stage 1 drought restrictions. Enforcers will leave a hanger on the door to notify the resident that a violation has been observed. The citation and ticket from the district court will arrive in the mail. KSWO TV (Lawton, Okla.), Aug 29, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Some dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across northern and eastern Montana on Thursday in a region which is expected to get minimal precipitation tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, fuels should remain dry and favorable for large fire spread on Thursday. Windy conditions are expected to continue from the Great Basin into the central Rockies for much of the extended period as moderate southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the region. However, fuels in this region are mostly moist. In addition, by this weekend, some monsoon moisture will lift northeast and relative humidity will increase with increasing wetting rain/wet thunderstorm chances. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday through the weekend. Fuels are not dry at this time, but after several days of dry and breezy conditions, fuels may become more receptive by this weekend. Fuel states will continue to be monitored as this weekend approaches. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Some dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across northern and eastern Montana on Thursday in a region which is expected to get minimal precipitation tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, fuels should remain dry and favorable for large fire spread on Thursday. Windy conditions are expected to continue from the Great Basin into the central Rockies for much of the extended period as moderate southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the region. However, fuels in this region are mostly moist. In addition, by this weekend, some monsoon moisture will lift northeast and relative humidity will increase with increasing wetting rain/wet thunderstorm chances. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday through the weekend. Fuels are not dry at this time, but after several days of dry and breezy conditions, fuels may become more receptive by this weekend. Fuel states will continue to be monitored as this weekend approaches. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more