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Mandatory stage two drought restrictions took effect in Pearland on Wednesday, Aug. 30. Houston Chronicle (Texas), Aug 30, 2023

Beaumont returned to stage two mandatory water restrictions from stage one. Residents were required to conserve and avoid non-essential water uses. 12 News (Beaumont, Texas), Aug 30, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

A farmer intended to make hay out of his soybeans, but they dried up so fast that the farmer didn’t even get hay from them. The farmer also worried about the loss of microorganisms in the soil dying from lack of water. KSN-TV Online (Wichita, Kan.), Aug 29, 2023

Residents of Dallas were asked to conserve water at the end of one of the hottest, driest summers on record. Customers were urged to use less water, parks and schools should irrigate half as much, restaurants should offer customers water only when it is requested, and motels should post a notice about drought conditions in rooms. Salem Statesman-Journal (Ore.), Aug 29, 2023

San Marcos entered Stage 4 drought restrictions on Aug. 27 as the levels of the Edwards Aquifer and Canyon Lake dropped lower. The San Marcos River has been flowing around 70 cubic feet per second, less than half of the historical average of 152 cfs. San Marcos has been in drought restrictions since March 2022. The University Star (San Marcos, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Stage 4 drought restrictions will begin in San Marcos on Aug. 27 as the aquifer level has fallen below 630 feet. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Aug. 21, 2023

A drought watch advisory was in effect for the Eastern Shore, the Northern Piedmont and Shenandoah Valley. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued the advisory in response to weather conditions and to raise public awareness of the potential for a significant drought. Precipitation has been below normal for the past 60 to 120 days for the Eastern Shore and parts of central and northern Virginia. WCAV-TV (Charlottesville, Va.), June 9, 2023

WW 0659 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/29/23 ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC035-049-059-292340- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEARWATER IDAHO LEMHI MTC001-023-039-057-063-077-081-093-292340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD DEER LODGE GRANITE MADISON MISSOULA POWELL RAVALLI SILVER BOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 659 SEVERE TSTM ID MT 292055Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 659 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Idaho Southwest Montana * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form and spread northeastward across northeast Idaho and southwest Montana through late evening. Storm clusters and short line segments will be capable of producing damaging outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Drummond MT to 45 miles southeast of Salmon ID. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

Wichita Falls has drought enforcers, which are people monitoring water use to spot those who violate the Stage 1 drought restrictions. Enforcers will leave a hanger on the door to notify the resident that a violation has been observed. The citation and ticket from the district court will arrive in the mail. KSWO TV (Lawton, Okla.), Aug 29, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Some dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across northern and eastern Montana on Thursday in a region which is expected to get minimal precipitation tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, fuels should remain dry and favorable for large fire spread on Thursday. Windy conditions are expected to continue from the Great Basin into the central Rockies for much of the extended period as moderate southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the region. However, fuels in this region are mostly moist. In addition, by this weekend, some monsoon moisture will lift northeast and relative humidity will increase with increasing wetting rain/wet thunderstorm chances. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday through the weekend. Fuels are not dry at this time, but after several days of dry and breezy conditions, fuels may become more receptive by this weekend. Fuel states will continue to be monitored as this weekend approaches. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Some dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across northern and eastern Montana on Thursday in a region which is expected to get minimal precipitation tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, fuels should remain dry and favorable for large fire spread on Thursday. Windy conditions are expected to continue from the Great Basin into the central Rockies for much of the extended period as moderate southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the region. However, fuels in this region are mostly moist. In addition, by this weekend, some monsoon moisture will lift northeast and relative humidity will increase with increasing wetting rain/wet thunderstorm chances. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday through the weekend. Fuels are not dry at this time, but after several days of dry and breezy conditions, fuels may become more receptive by this weekend. Fuel states will continue to be monitored as this weekend approaches. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Canyon Lake fell to a historic low of 892.56 feet, which is the lowest in recorded history since impoundment in 1964. Comal County has closed all nine of the boat ramps on Canyon Lake that are county-operated. Community Impact (New Braunfels, Texas), Aug 29, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2023 20:36:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2023 21:43:36 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292035 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023 Irwin has failed to produce any convection near its center during the last 15-18 h. Since it no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, Irwin is being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. A recent scatterometer pass showed a broad area of winds at or slightly above 30 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is moving slightly south of due west (260/15 kt). A general westward motion at a gradually slower forward speed is expected over the next several days while Irwin is steered by a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could occur during the next couple of days, the overall environment does not appear conducive for Irwin to regenerate to a tropical cyclone. This is the last NHC advisory on Irwin. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/0600Z 18.9N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z 18.8N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 18.8N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 18.9N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 140.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z 19.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 19.5N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 292034 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 292034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023 ...IRWIN BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 130.3W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 130.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Irwin. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...IRWIN BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Aug 29 the center of Irwin was located near 19.1, -130.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 292034 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 130.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 130.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.8N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.8N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.9N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 130.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IRWIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART